The application of inverse-dispersion and gradient methods to estimate ammonia emissions from a penguin colony.

Penguin colonies represent some of the most concentrated sources of ammonia emissions to the atmosphere in the world. The ammonia emitted into the atmosphere can have a large influence on the nitrogen cycling of ecosystems near the colonies. However, despite the ecological importance of the emissions, no measurements of ammonia emissions from penguin colonies have been made. The objective of this work was to determine the ammonia emission rate of a penguin colony using inverse-dispersion modelling and gradient methods. We measured meteorological variables and mean atmospheric concentrations of ammonia at seven locations near a colony of Adélie penguins in Antarctica to provide input data for inverse-dispersion modelling. Three different atmospheric dispersion models (ADMS, LADD and a Lagrangian stochastic model) were used to provide a robust emission estimate. The Lagrangian stochastic model was applied both in ‘forwards’ and ‘backwards’ mode to compare the difference between the two approaches. In addition, the aerodynamic gradient method was applied using vertical profiles of mean ammonia concentrations measured near the centre of the colony. The emission estimates derived from the simulations of the three dispersion models and the aerodynamic gradient method agreed quite well, giving a mean emission of 1.1 g ammonia per breeding pair per day (95% confidence interval: 0.4–2.5 g ammonia per breeding pair per day). This emission rate represents a volatilisation of 1.9% of the estimated nitrogen excretion of the penguins, which agrees well with that estimated from a temperature-dependent bioenergetics model. We found that, in this study, the Lagrangian stochastic model seemed to give more reliable emission estimates in ‘forwards’ mode than in ‘backwards’ mode due to the assumptions made.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and hatch rates of Antarctic krill

Marine ecosystems of the Southern Ocean are particularly vulnerable to ocean acidification. Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba; hereafter krill) is the key pelagic species of the region and its largest fishery resource. There is therefore concern about the combined effects of climate change, ocean acidification and an expanding fishery on krill and ultimately, their dependent predators-whales, seals and penguins. However, little is known about the sensitivity of krill to ocean acidification. Juvenile and adult krill are already exposed to variable seawater carbonate chemistry because they occupy a range of habitats and migrate both vertically and horizontally on a daily and seasonal basis. Moreover, krill eggs sink from the surface to hatch at 700-1,000 m, where the carbon dioxide partial pressure (pCO2) in sea water is already greater than it is in the atmosphere. Krill eggs sink passively and so cannot avoid these conditions. Here we describe the sensitivity of krill egg hatch rates to increased CO2, and present a circumpolar risk map of krill hatching success under projected pCO2 levels. We find that important krill habitats of the Weddell Sea and the Haakon VII Sea to the east are likely to become high-risk areas for krill recruitment within a century. Furthermore, unless CO2 emissions are mitigated, the Southern Ocean krill population could collapse by 2300 with dire consequences for the entire ecosystem.

Survivability of Deterministic Dynamical Systems

Acknowledgements We acknowledge gratefully the support of BMBF, CoNDyNet, FK. 03SF0472A, of the EIT Climate-KIC project SWIPO and Nora Molkenthin for illustrating our illustration of the concept of survivability using penguins. We thank Martin Rohden for providing us with the UK high-voltage transmission grid topology and Yang Tang for very useful discussions. The publication of this article was funded by the Open Access Fund of the Leibniz Association.

Emerging borreliae – Expanding beyond Lyme borreliosis

Lyme borreliosis (or Lyme disease) has become a virtual household term to the exclusion of other forgotten, emerging or re-emerging borreliae. We review current knowledge regarding these other borreliae, exploring their ecology, epidemiology and pathological potential, for example, for the newly described B. mayonii. These bacteria range from tick-borne, relapsing fever-inducing strains detected in some soft ticks, such as B. mvumii, to those from bat ticks resembling B. turicatae. Some of these emerging pathogens remain unnamed, such as the borrelial strains found in South African penguins and some African cattle ticks. Others, such as B. microti and unnamed Iranian strains, have not been recognised through a lack of discriminatory diagnostic methods. Technical improvements in phylogenetic methods have allowed the differentiation of B. merionesi from other borrelial species that co-circulate in the same region. Furthermore, we discuss members that challenge the existing dogma that Lyme disease-inducing strains are transmitted by hard ticks, whilst the relapsing fever-inducing spirochaetes are transmitted by soft ticks. Controversially, the genus has now been split with Lyme disease-associated members being transferred to Borreliella, whilst the relapsing fever species retain the Borrelia genus name. It took some 60 years for the correlation with clinical presentations now known as Lyme borreliosis to be attributed to their spirochaetal cause. Many of the borreliae discussed here are currently considered exotic curiosities, whilst others, such as B. miyamotoi, are emerging as significant causes of morbidity. To elucidate their role as potential pathogenic agents, we first need to recognise their presence through suitable diagnostic approaches.