Computer-based national information systems : technology and public policy issues, summary.

"OTA-CIT-147"--P. 4 of cover.

Value Assessment of Orphan Drugs and Treatments for Rare Diseases

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Development of science and technology policy for Kuwait

The status of Science and Technology in KUWAIT has been analysed in order to assess the extent of the application of Science and Technology needed for the Country's development. The design and implementation of a Science and Technology Policy has been examined to identify the appropriate technology necessary to improve KUWAIT's socio-economic-industrial structures. Following a general and critical review of the role of Science and Technology in the developing countries, the author has reviewed the past and contemporary employment of Science and Technology for development.of various sectors and the existence, if any, of any form (explicit, implicit, or both) of a Science and Technology Policy in KUWAIT. The thesis is structured to evaluate almost all of the sectors in KUWAIT which utilise Science and/or Technology, the effectiveness of such practices, their policymaking process, the channels by which policies were transformed into sources of influence through Governmental action and the impact that various policy instruments at the disposal of the the Government had on the development of S & T capabilities. The author has studied the implications of the absence of a Science and Technology Policy in Kuwait by examining some specific case studies, eg, the absence of a Technology Assessment Process and the negative impacts resulting from this; the ad-hoc allocation of the research and development budget instead of its being based on a percentage of GNP; the limitations imposed on the development of indigenous contracting companies and consultancy and engineering design offices; the impacts of the absence of Technology Transfer Centre, and so forth. As a consequence of the implications of the above studies, together with the negative results from the absence of an explicit Science and Technology Policy, eg, research and development activities do not relate to the national development plans, the author suggests that a Science and Technology Policy-Making Body should be established to formulate, develop, monitor and correlate the Science and Technology Activities in KUWAIT.

Assessment of the cortisol awakening response: Real-time analysis and curvilinear effects of sample timing inaccuracy

The cortisol awakening response (CAR) is typically measured in the domestic setting. Moderate sample timing inaccuracy has been shown to result in erroneous CAR estimates and such inaccuracy has been shown partially to explain inconsistency in the CAR literature. The need for more reliable measurement of the CAR has recently been highlighted in expert consensus guidelines where it was pointed out that less than 6% of published studies provided electronic-monitoring of saliva sampling time in the post-awakening period. Analyses of a merged data-set of published studies from our laboratory are presented. To qualify for selection, both time of awakening and collection of the first sample must have been verified by electronic-monitoring and sampling commenced within 15 min of awakening. Participants (n = 128) were young (median age of 20 years) and healthy. Cortisol values were determined in the 45 min post-awakening period on 215 sampling days. On 127 days, delay between verified awakening and collection of the first sample was less than 3 min (‘no delay’ group); on 45 days there was a delay of 4–6 min (‘short delay’ group); on 43 days the delay was 7–15 min (‘moderate delay’ group). Cortisol values for verified sampling times accurately mapped on to the typical post-awakening cortisol growth curve, regardless of whether sampling deviated from desired protocol timings. This provides support for incorporating rather than excluding delayed data (up to 15 min) in CAR analyses. For this population the fitted cortisol growth curve equation predicted a mean cortisol awakening level of 6 nmols/l (±1 for 95% CI) and a mean CAR rise of 6 nmols/l (±2 for 95% CI). We also modelled the relationship between real delay and CAR magnitude, when the CAR is calculated erroneously by incorrectly assuming adherence to protocol time. Findings supported a curvilinear hypothesis in relation to effects of sample delay on the CAR. Short delays of 4–6 min between awakening and commencement of saliva sampling resulted an overestimated CAR. Moderate delays of 7–15 min were associated with an underestimated CAR. Findings emphasize the need to employ electronic-monitoring of sampling accuracy when measuring the CAR in the domestic setting.

The Role of decision-analytic modelling in German health technology assessments

BACKGROUND: Decision-analytic modelling (DAM) has become a widespread method in health technology assessments (HTA), but the extent to which modelling is used differs among international HTA institutions. In Germany, the use of DAM is optional within HTAs of the German Institute of Medical Documentation and Information (DIMDI). Our study examines the use of DAM in DIMDI HTA reports and its effect on the quality of information provided for health policies. METHODS: A review of all DIMDI HTA reports (from 1998 to September 2012) incorporating an economic assessment was performed. All included reports were divided into two groups: HTAs with DAM and HTAs without DAM. In both groups, reports were categorized according to the quality of information provided for healthcare decision making. RESULTS: Of the sample of 107 DIMDI HTA reports, 17 (15.9%) used DAM for economic assessment. In the group without DAM, conclusions were limited by the quality of economic information in 51.1% of the reports, whereas we did not find limited conclusions in the group with DAM. Furthermore, 24 reports without DAM (26.7%) stated that using DAM would likely improve the quality of information of the economic assessment. CONCLUSION: The use of DAM techniques can improve the quality of HTAs in Germany. When, after a systematic review of existing literature within a HTA, it is clear that DAM is likely to positively affect the quality of the economic assessment DAM should be used.

Setting hospital infection control policy : a decision-making framework incorporating health economics and healthcare epidemiology

Background: Reducing rates of healthcare acquired infection has been identified by the Australian Commission on Safety and Quality in Health Care as a national priority. One of the goals is the prevention of central venous catheter-related bloodstream infection (CR-BSI). At least 3,500 cases of CR-BSI occur annually in Australian hospitals, resulting in unnecessary deaths and costs to the healthcare system between $25.7 and $95.3 million. Two approaches to preventing these infections have been proposed: use of antimicrobial catheters (A-CVCs); or a catheter care and management ‘bundle’. Given finite healthcare budgets, decisions about the optimal infection control policy require consideration of the effectiveness and value for money of each approach. Objectives: The aim of this research is to use a rational economic framework to inform efficient infection control policy relating to the prevention of CR-BSI in the intensive care unit. It addresses three questions relating to decision-making in this area: 1. Is additional investment in activities aimed at preventing CR-BSI an efficient use of healthcare resources? 2. What is the optimal infection control strategy from amongst the two major approaches that have been proposed to prevent CR-BSI? 3. What uncertainty is there in this decision and can a research agenda to improve decision-making in this area be identified? Methods: A decision analytic model-based economic evaluation was undertaken to identify an efficient approach to preventing CR-BSI in Queensland Health intensive care units. A Markov model was developed in conjunction with a panel of clinical experts which described the epidemiology and prognosis of CR-BSI. The model was parameterised using data systematically identified from the published literature and extracted from routine databases. The quality of data used in the model and its validity to clinical experts and sensitivity to modelling assumptions was assessed. Two separate economic evaluations were conducted. The first evaluation compared all commercially available A-CVCs alongside uncoated catheters to identify which was cost-effective for routine use. The uncertainty in this decision was estimated along with the value of collecting further information to inform the decision. The second evaluation compared the use of A-CVCs to a catheter care bundle. We were unable to estimate the cost of the bundle because it is unclear what the full resource requirements are for its implementation, and what the value of these would be in an Australian context. As such we undertook a threshold analysis to identify the cost and effectiveness thresholds at which a hypothetical bundle would dominate the use of A-CVCs under various clinical scenarios. Results: In the first evaluation of A-CVCs, the findings from the baseline analysis, in which uncertainty is not considered, show that the use of any of the four A-CVCs will result in health gains accompanied by cost-savings. The MR catheters dominate the baseline analysis generating 1.64 QALYs and cost-savings of $130,289 per 1.000 catheters. With uncertainty, and based on current information, the MR catheters remain the optimal decision and return the highest average net monetary benefits ($948 per catheter) relative to all other catheter types. This conclusion was robust to all scenarios tested, however, the probability of error in this conclusion is high, 62% in the baseline scenario. Using a value of $40,000 per QALY, the expected value of perfect information associated with this decision is $7.3 million. An analysis of the expected value of perfect information for individual parameters suggests that it may be worthwhile for future research to focus on providing better estimates of the mortality attributable to CR-BSI and the effectiveness of both SPC and CH/SSD (int/ext) catheters. In the second evaluation of the catheter care bundle relative to A-CVCs, the results which do not consider uncertainty indicate that a bundle must achieve a relative risk of CR-BSI of at least 0.45 to be cost-effective relative to MR catheters. If the bundle can reduce rates of infection from 2.5% to effectively zero, it is cost-effective relative to MR catheters if national implementation costs are less than $2.6 million ($56,610 per ICU). If the bundle can achieve a relative risk of 0.34 (comparable to that reported in the literature) it is cost-effective, relative to MR catheters, if costs over an 18 month period are below $613,795 nationally ($13,343 per ICU). Once uncertainty in the decision is considered, the cost threshold for the bundle increases to $2.2 million. Therefore, if each of the 46 Level III ICUs could implement an 18 month catheter care bundle for less than $47,826 each, this approach would be cost effective relative to A-CVCs. However, the uncertainty is substantial and the probability of error in concluding that the bundle is the cost-effective approach at a cost of $2.2 million is 89%. Conclusions: This work highlights that infection control to prevent CR-BSI is an efficient use of healthcare resources in the Australian context. If there is no further investment in infection control, an opportunity cost is incurred, which is the potential for a more efficient healthcare system. Minocycline/rifampicin catheters are the optimal choice of antimicrobial catheter for routine use in Australian Level III ICUs, however, if a catheter care bundle implemented in Australia was as effective as those used in the large studies in the United States it would be preferred over the catheters if it was able to be implemented for less than $47,826 per Level III ICU. Uncertainty is very high in this decision and arises from multiple sources. There are likely greater costs to this uncertainty for A-CVCs, which may carry hidden costs, than there are for a catheter care bundle, which is more likely to provide indirect benefits to clinical practice and patient safety. Research into the mortality attributable to CR-BSI, the effectiveness of SPC and CH/SSD (int/ext) catheters and the cost and effectiveness of a catheter care bundle in Australia should be prioritised to reduce uncertainty in this decision. This thesis provides the economic evidence to inform one area of infection control, but there are many other infection control decisions for which information about the cost-effectiveness of competing interventions does not exist. This work highlights some of the challenges and benefits to generating and using economic evidence for infection control decision-making and provides support for commissioning more research into the cost-effectiveness of infection control.

Evaluations of Process Modeling Grammars : Ontological, Qualitative and Quantitative Analyses Using the Example of BPMN

Business processes have emerged as a well-respected variable in the design of successful corporations. However, unlike other key managerial variables, such as products and services, customers and employees, physical or digital assets, the conceptualization and management of business processes are in many respects in their infancy. In this book, Jan Recker investigates the notion of quality of business process modeling grammars. His evaluation is based on an ontological-, qualitative-, and quantitative analysis, applied to BPMN, a widely-used business process modeling grammar. His results reveal the ontological shortcomings of BPMN and how these manifest themselves in actual process modeling practice, as well as how they influence the usage behavior of modeling practitioners. More generally, his book constitutes a landmark for empirical technology assessment, analyzing the way in which design flaws in technology influence usage behavior.

Structured Telephone Support or Telemonitoring Programs for Patients with Chronic Heart Failure

Background: Specialised disease management programmes for chronic heart failure (CHF) improve survival, quality of life and reduce healthcare utilisation. The overall efficacy of structured telephone support or telemonitoring as an individual component of a CHF disease management strategy remains inconclusive. Objectives: To review randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of structured telephone support or telemonitoring compared to standard practice for patients with CHF in order to quantify the effects of these interventions over and above usual care for these patients. Search strategy: Databases (the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) and Health Technology Assessment Database (HTA) on The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, AMED and Science Citation Index Expanded and Conference Citation Index on ISI Web of Knowledge) and various search engines were searched from 2006 to November 2008 to update a previously published non-Cochrane review. Bibliographies of relevant studies and systematic reviews and abstract conference proceedings were handsearched. No language limits were applied. Selection criteria: Only peer reviewed, published RCTs comparing structured telephone support or telemonitoring to usual care of CHF patients were included. Unpublished abstract data was included in sensitivity analyses. The intervention or usual care could not include a home visit or more than the usual (four to six weeks) clinic follow-up. Data collection and analysis: Data were presented as risk ratio (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Primary outcomes included all-cause mortality, all-cause and CHF-related hospitalisations which were meta-analysed using fixed effects models. Other outcomes included length of stay, quality of life, acceptability and cost and these were described and tabulated. Main results: Twenty-five studies and five published abstracts were included. Of the 25 full peer-reviewed studies meta-analysed, 16 evaluated structured telephone support (5613 participants), 11 evaluated telemonitoring (2710 participants), and two tested both interventions (included in counts). Telemonitoring reduced all-cause mortality (RR 0.66, 95% CI 0.54 to 0.81, P < 0.0001) with structured telephone support demonstrating a non-significant positive effect (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.01, P = 0.08). Both structured telephone support (RR 0.77, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.87, P < 0.0001) and telemonitoring (RR 0.79, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.94, P = 0.008) reduced CHF-related hospitalisations. For both interventions, several studies improved quality of life, reduced healthcare costs and were acceptable to patients. Improvements in prescribing, patient knowledge and self-care, and New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class were observed. Authors' conclusions: Structured telephone support and telemonitoring are effective in reducing the risk of all-cause mortality and CHF-related hospitalisations in patients with CHF; they improve quality of life, reduce costs, and evidence-based prescribing.

A cost-outcome description of the septic work-up for bacterial infection in neonates in a tertiary care hospital

Analysis of the septic work-up of 194 neonates at Women's College Hospital, Toronto, showed that the only antepartum condition predicting neonatal sepsis was the mother being on antibiotics. The only postnatal condition predicting sepsis was a maternal postpartum white blood cell count over 11,000. The average cost for tests for a septic work-up in these 194 mother-neonate pairs was $71.48 (Canadian dollars), and the average cost of tests to find a septic case was $1,066.77.

A criteria based approach for evaluating innovation commercialisation

This study attempts to provide a criteria-based approach that can be used to evaluate the potential for technology transfer and commercialisation of a new technology from university research. More specifically, this study offers the critical factors for assessing marketability and feasibility of an innovation for the commercialisation and technology transfer process. The Delphi technique has been used to refine and categorise assessment criteria identified from various models and frameworks that emerged from literature. Proposed categories of criteria that are found to be important in the evaluation and assessment of a new technology for the commercialisation purpose include: Technological Readiness; Legal and Regulatory; Social Benefits and Impact; Economic and Market Factors.

MITIE C-Arm - Advanced innovation in education

Aim: In 2013 QUT introduced the Medical Imaging Training Immersive Environment (MITIE) as a virtual reality (VR) platform that allowed students to practice general radiography. The system software has been expanded to now include C-Arm. The aim of this project was to investigate the use of this technology in the pedagogy of undergraduate medical imaging students who have limited to no experience in the use of the C-Arm clinically. Method: The Medical Imaging Training Immersive Environment (MITIE) application provides students with realistic and fully interactive 3D models of C-Arm equipment. As with VR initiatives in other health disciplines (1–2) the software mimics clinical practice as much as possible and uses 3D technology to enhance 3D spatial awareness and realism. The application allows students to set up and expose a virtual patient in a 3D environment as well as creating the resultant “image” for comparison with a gold standard. Automated feedback highlights ways for the student to improve their patient positioning, equipment setup or exposure factors. The students' equipment knowledge was tested using an on line assessment quiz and surveys provided information on the students' pre-clinical confidence scale, with post-clinical data comparisons. Ethical approval for the project was provided by the university ethics panel. Results: This study is currently under way and this paper will present analysis of initial student feedback relating to the perceived value of the application for confidence in a high risk environment (i.e. operating theatre) and related clinical skills development. Further in-depth evaluation is ongoing with full results to be presented. Conclusion: MITIE C-Arm has a development role to play in the pre-clinical skills training for Medical Radiation Science students. It will augment their theoretical understanding prior to their clinical experience. References 1. Bridge P, Appleyard R, Ward J, Phillips R, Beavis A. The development and evaluation of a virtual radiotherapy treatment machine using an immersive visualisation environment. Computers and Education 2007; 49(2): 481–494. 2. Gunn T, Berry C, Bridge P et al. 3D Virtual Radiography: Development and Initial Feedback. Paper presented at the 10th Annual Scientific Meeting of Medical Imaging and Radiation Therapy, March 2013 Hobart, Tasmania.

Educational interventions for preventing vascular catheter bloodstream infections in critical care: Evidence map, systematic review and economic evaluation

Background Bloodstream infections resulting from intravascular catheters (catheter-BSI) in critical care increase patients' length of stay, morbidity and mortality, and the management of these infections and their complications has been estimated to cost the NHS annually £19.1–36.2M. Catheter-BSI are thought to be largely preventable using educational interventions, but guidance as to which types of intervention might be most clinically effective is lacking. Objective To assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of educational interventions for preventing catheter-BSI in critical care units in England. Data sources Sixteen electronic bibliographic databases – including MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED), EMBASE and The Cochrane Library databases – were searched from database inception to February 2011, with searches updated in March 2012. Bibliographies of systematic reviews and related papers were screened and experts contacted to identify any additional references. Review methods References were screened independently by two reviewers using a priori selection criteria. A descriptive map was created to summarise the characteristics of relevant studies. Further selection criteria developed in consultation with the project Advisory Group were used to prioritise a subset of studies relevant to NHS practice and policy for systematic review. A decision-analytic economic model was developed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of educational interventions for preventing catheter-BSI. Results Seventy-four studies were included in the descriptive map, of which 24 were prioritised for systematic review. Studies have predominantly been conducted in the USA, using single-cohort before-and-after study designs. Diverse types of educational intervention appear effective at reducing the incidence density of catheter-BSI (risk ratios statistically significantly < 1.0), but single lectures were not effective. The economic model showed that implementing an educational intervention in critical care units in England would be cost-effective and potentially cost-saving, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios under worst-case sensitivity analyses of < £5000/quality-adjusted life-year. Limitations Low-quality primary studies cannot definitively prove that the planned interventions were responsible for observed changes in catheter-BSI incidence. Poor reporting gave unclear estimates of risk of bias. Some model parameters were sourced from other locations owing to a lack of UK data. Conclusions Our results suggest that it would be cost-effective and may be cost-saving for the NHS to implement educational interventions in critical care units. However, more robust primary studies are needed to exclude the possible influence of secular trends on observed reductions in catheter-BSI.

Evidence-based perspective on CP rehabilitation : Reviews on physiotherapy, physiotherapy-related motor-based interventions and orthotic devices

This thesis utilises an evidence-based approach to critically evaluate and summarize effectiveness research on physiotherapy, physiotherapy-related motor-based interventions and orthotic devices in children and adolescents with cerebral palsy (CP). It aims to assess the methodological challenges of the systematic reviews and trials, to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions in current use, and to make suggestions for future trials Methods: Systematic reviews were searched from computerized bibliographic databases up to August 2007 for physiotherapy and physiotherapy-related interventions, and up to May 2003 for orthotic devices. Two reviewers independently identified, selected, and assessed the quality of the reviews using the Overview Quality Assessment Questionnaire complemented with decision rules. From a sample of 14 randomized controlled trials (RCT) published between January 1990 and June 2003 we analysed the methods of sampling, recruitment, and comparability of groups; defined the components of a complex intervention; identified outcome measures based on the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF); analysed the clinical interpretation of score changes; and analysed trial reporting using a modified 33-item CONSORT (Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials) checklist. The effectiveness of physiotherapy and physiotherapy-related interventions in children with diagnosed CP was evaluated in a systematic review of randomised controlled trials that were searched from computerized databases from January 1990 up to February 2007. Two reviewers independently assessed the methodological quality, extracted the data, classified the outcomes using the ICF, and considered the level of evidence according to van Tulder et al. (2003). Results: We identified 21 reviews on physiotherapy and physiotherapy-related interventions and five on orthotic devices. These reviews summarized 23 or 5 randomised controlled trials and 104 or 27 observational studies, respectively. Only six reviews were of high quality. These found some evidence supporting strength training, constraint-induced movement therapy or hippotherapy, and insufficient evidence on comprehensive interventions. Based on the original studies included in the reviews on orthotic devices we found some short-term effects of lower limb casting on passive range of movement, and of ankle-foot orthoses on equinus walk. Long term effects of lower limb orthoses have not been studied. Evidence of upper limb casting or orthoses is conflicting. In the sample of 14 RCTs, most trials used simple randomisation, complemented with matching or stratification, but only three specified the concealed allocation. Numerous studies provided sufficient details on the components of a complex intervention, but the overlap of outcome measures across studies was poor and the clinical interpretation of observed score changes was mostly missing. Almost half (48%) of the applicable CONSORT-based items (range 28 32) were reported adequately. Most reporting inadequacies were in outcome measures, sample size determination, details of the sequence generation, allocation concealment and implementation of the randomization, success of assessor blinding, recruitment and follow-up dates, intention-to-treat analysis, precision of the effect size, co-interventions, and adverse events. The systematic review identified 22 trials on eight intervention categories. Four trials were of high quality. Moderate evidence of effectiveness was established for upper extremity treatments on attained goals, active supination and developmental status, and of constraint-induced therapy on the amount and quality of hand use and new emerging behaviours. Moderate evidence of ineffectiveness was found for strength training's effect on walking speed and stride length. Conflicting evidence was found for strength training's effect on gross motor function. For the other intervention categories the evidence was limited due to the low methodological quality and the statistically insignificant results of the studies. Conclusions: The high-quality reviews provide both supportive and insufficient evidence on some physiotherapy interventions. The poor quality of most reviews calls for caution, although most reviews drew no conclusions on effectiveness due to the poor quality of the primary studies. A considerable number of RCTs of good to fair methodological and reporting quality indicate that informative and well-reported RCTs on complex interventions in children and adolescents with CP are feasible. Nevertheless, methodological improvement is needed in certain areas of the trial design and performance, and the trial authors are encouraged to follow the CONSORT criteria. Based on RCTs we established moderate evidence for some effectiveness of upper extremity training. Due to limitations in methodological quality and variations in population, interventions and outcomes, mostly limited evidence on the effectiveness of most physiotherapy interventions is available to guide clinical practice. Well-designed trials are needed, especially for focused physiotherapy interventions.

The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of exercise referral schemes: A systematic review and economic evaluation

- Background Exercise referral schemes (ERS) aim to identify inactive adults in the primary-care setting. The GP or health-care professional then refers the patient to a third-party service, with this service taking responsibility for prescribing and monitoring an exercise programme tailored to the needs of the individual. - Objective To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of ERS for people with a diagnosed medical condition known to benefit from physical activity (PA). The scope of this report was broadened to consider individuals without a diagnosed condition who are sedentary. - Data sources MEDLINE; EMBASE; PsycINFO; The Cochrane Library, ISI Web of Science; SPORTDiscus and ongoing trial registries were searched (from 1990 to October 2009) and included study references were checked. - Methods Systematic reviews: the effectiveness of ERS, predictors of ERS uptake and adherence, and the cost-effectiveness of ERS; and the development of a decision-analytic economic model to assess cost-effectiveness of ERS. - Results Seven randomised controlled trials (UK, n = 5; non-UK, n = 2) met the effectiveness inclusion criteria, five comparing ERS with usual care, two compared ERS with an alternative PA intervention, and one to an ERS plus a self-determination theory (SDT) intervention. In intention-to-treat analysis, compared with usual care, there was weak evidence of an increase in the number of ERS participants who achieved a self-reported 90-150 minutes of at least moderate-intensity PA per week at 6-12 months' follow-up [pooled relative risk (RR) 1.11, 95% confidence interval 0.99 to 1.25]. There was no consistent evidence of a difference between ERS and usual care in the duration of moderate/vigorous intensity and total PA or other outcomes, for example physical fitness, serum lipids, health-related quality of life (HRQoL). There was no between-group difference in outcomes between ERS and alternative PA interventions or ERS plus a SDT intervention. None of the included trials separately reported outcomes in individuals with medical diagnoses. Fourteen observational studies and five randomised controlled trials provided a numerical assessment of ERS uptake and adherence (UK, n = 16; non-UK, n = 3). Women and older people were more likely to take up ERS but women, when compared with men, were less likely to adhere. The four previous economic evaluations identified suggest ERS to be a cost-effective intervention. Indicative incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) estimates for ERS for various scenarios were based on a de novo model-based economic evaluation. Compared with usual care, the mean incremental cost for ERS was £169 and the mean incremental QALY was 0.008, with the base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio at £20,876 per QALY in sedentary people without a medical condition and a cost per QALY of £14,618 in sedentary obese individuals, £12,834 in sedentary hypertensive patients, and £8414 for sedentary individuals with depression. Estimates of cost-effectiveness were highly sensitive to plausible variations in the RR for change in PA and cost of ERS. - Limitations We found very limited evidence of the effectiveness of ERS. The estimates of the cost-effectiveness of ERS are based on a simple analytical framework. The economic evaluation reports small differences in costs and effects, and findings highlight the wide range of uncertainty associated with the estimates of effectiveness and the impact of effectiveness on HRQoL. No data were identified as part of the effectiveness review to allow for adjustment of the effect of ERS in different populations. - Conclusions There remains considerable uncertainty as to the effectiveness of ERS for increasing activity, fitness or health indicators or whether they are an efficient use of resources in sedentary people without a medical diagnosis. We failed to identify any trial-based evidence of the effectiveness of ERS in those with a medical diagnosis. Future work should include randomised controlled trials assessing the cinical effectiveness and cost-effectivenesss of ERS in disease groups that may benefit from PA. - Funding The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.