Improving flood forecasts for better flood preparedness in the UK (and beyond)

This winter (2013/14) coastal storms and an unprecedented amount of rainfall led to significant and widespread flooding across the southern UK. Despite much criticism and blame surrounding the flood events, the Flood Forecasting Centre, a recent development in national-level flood forecasting capabilities for the government and emergency response communities, has received considerable praise. Here we consider how scientific developments and organisational change have led to improvements in the forecasting and flood preparedness seen in this winter's flooding. Although such improvements are admirable, there are many technical and communication challenges that remain for probabilistic flood forecasts to achieve their full potential.

Knowledge and attitudes of health care workers from intensive care units regarding nosocomial transmission of influenza: a study on the immediate pre-pandemic period

The transmission of influenza in health care settings is a major threat to patients, especially those with severe diseases. The attitude of health care workers (HCWs) may influence the transmission of countless infections. The current study aimed to quantify knowledge and identify attitudes of HCWs involved in intensive care units (ICUs) regarding the risk of nosocomial influenza transmission. A questionnaire was applied through interviews to HCWs who worked in one of the five ICUs from a teaching hospital. Questions about influenza were deliberately dispersed among others that assessed several infectious agents. Forty-two HCWs were interviewed: nine physicians, ten nurses and 23 nursing technicians or auxiliaries. Among the 42 HCWs, 98% were aware of the potential transmission of influenza virus in the ICUs, but only 31% would indicate droplet precautions for patients with suspected infection. Moreover, only 31% of them had been vaccinated against influenza in the last campaign (2008). Nursing technicians or auxiliaries were more likely to have been vaccinated, both by univariate and multivariable analysis. When asked about absenteeism, only 10% of the study subjects stated that they would not go to work if they had an influenza-like illness. Those findings suggest that, in non-pandemic periods, influenza control in hospitals requires strategies that combine continuous education with changes in organizational culture.

Preparedness for rain during sunny weather: Caribbean environmental sustainability in a nuclear age

Includes bibliography

Pandemic unadjuvanted influenza A (H1N1) vaccine in dermatomyositis and polymyositis: Immunogenicity independent of therapy and no harmful effect in disease

The goal of the present study was to evaluate the influence of the influenza A H1N1/2009 vaccine on dermatomyositis/polymyositis (DM/PM) disease parameters and the potential deleterious effect of therapy on immune response. Thirty-seven DM and 21 PM patients (Bohan and Peter's criteria) were gender- and age-matched to 116 healthy controls. Seroprotection, seroconversion, the geometric mean titers (GMTs) and the factor increase (FI) in the GMTs were calculated. Disease safety was determined from a muscle enzyme analysis and the DM/PM scores [patient's visual analog scale (VAS), physician's VAS, manual muscle strength (MMT-8)] evaluated pre- and post-vaccination. The mean age (43.1 +/- 9.9 vs. 43.8 +/- 8.4 years, p = 0.607) and gender distribution (p = 1.00) were comparable between the patients and controls. After 21 days, seroconversion (p = 0.394), seroprotection (p = 0.08), GMT (p = 0.573) and the FI in the GMT (p = 0.496) were similar in both groups. The disease and muscle parameters remained stable throughout the study, including the creatine kinase (p = 0.20) and aldolase levels (p = 0.98), the physicians' VAS (p = 1.00), the patients' VAS (p = 1.00) and the MMT-8 (p = 1.00). Regarding the influence of treatment, the seroconversion rates were comparable between the controls and patients undergoing treatment with glucocorticoid (GC) (p = 0.969), GC >0.5 mg/kg/day (p = 0.395) and GC + immunosuppressors (p = 0.285). Vaccine-related adverse events were mild and similar in the DM/PM and control groups (p > 0.05). Our data support the administration of the pandemic influenza A H1N1/2009 vaccination in DM/PM, as we found no short-term harmful effects related to the disease itself and adequate immunogenicity in spite of therapy. Further studies are necessary to identify any long-term adverse effects in patients with these diseases.(c) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

TNF blockers show distinct patterns of immune response to the pandemic influenza A H1N1 vaccine in inflammatory arthritis patients

Methods. One hundred and twenty patients (RA, n = 41; AS, n = 57; PsA, n = 22) on anti-TNF agents (monoclonal, n = 94; soluble receptor, n = 26) were compared with 116 inflammatory arthritis patients under DMARDs and 117 healthy controls. Seroprotection, seroconversion (SC), geometric mean titre, factor increase in geometric mean titre and adverse events were evaluated 21 days after vaccination. Results. After immunization, SC rates (58.2% vs 74.3%, P = 0.017) were significantly lower in SpA patients receiving anti-TNF therapy, whereas no difference was observed in RA patients receiving this therapy compared with healthy controls (P = 0.067). SpA patients receiving mAbs (infliximab/adalimumab) had a significantly lower SC rate compared with healthy controls (51.6% vs 74.3%, P = 0.002) or those on DMARDs (51.6% vs 74.7%, P = 0.005), whereas no difference was observed for patients on etanercept (86.7% vs 74.3%, P = 0.091). Further analysis of non-seroconverting and seroconverting SpA patients revealed that the former group had a higher mean age (P = 0.003), a higher frequency of anti-TNF (P = 0.031) and mAbs (P = 0.001) and a lower frequency of MTX (P = 0.028). In multivariate logistic regression, only older age (P = 0.015) and mAb treatment (P = 0.023) remained significant factors for non-SC in SpA patients. Conclusion. This study revealed a distinct disease pattern of immune response to the pandemic influenza vaccine in inflammatory arthritis patients receiving anti-TNF agents, illustrated by a reduced immunogenicity solely in SpA patients using mAbs. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="www.clinicaltrials.gov" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">www.clinicaltrials.gov, NCT01151644.

Immunogenicity and safety of seasonal and 2009 pandemic A/H1N1 influenza vaccines for patients with autoimmune diseases: a prospective, monocentre trial on 199 patients

The 2009 pandemic A/H1N1 influenza outbreak represented a theoretical risk for patients with autoimmune diseases (AID), especially those immunosuppressed. This study was undertaken to evaluate immunogenicity and tolerance of seasonal (SFV) and A/H1N1 flu vaccines (HFV) in AID patients.

Coronary artery disease, nitric oxide and oxidative stress: the "Yin-Yang" effect--a Chinese concept for a worldwide pandemic

Prevention of coronary artery disease (CAD) and reduction of its mortality and morbidity remains a major public health challenge throughout the "Western world". Recent evidence supports the concept that the impairment of endothelial function, a hallmark of insulin resistance states, is an upstream event in the pathophysiology of insulin resistance and its main corollaries: atherosclerosis and myocardial infarction. Atherosclerosis is currently thought to be the consequence of a subtle imbalance between pro- and anti-oxidants that produces favourable conditions for lesion progression towards acute thrombotic complications and clinical events. Over the last decade, a remarkable burst of evidence has accumulated, offering the new perspective that bioavailable nitric oxide (NO) plays a pivotal role throughout the CAD-spectrum, from its genesis to the outcome after acute events. Vascular NO is a critical modulator of coronary blood flow by inhibiting smooth muscle contraction and platelet aggregation. It also acts in angiogenesis and cytoprotection. Defective endothelial nitric oxide synthase (eNOS) driven NO synthesis causes development of major cardiovascular risk factors (insulin resistance, arterial hypertension and dyslipidaemia) in mice, and characterises CAD-prone insulin-resistant humans. On the other hand, stimulation of inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS) and NO overproduction causes metabolic insulin resistance and characterises atherosclerosis, heart failure and cardiogenic shock in humans, suggesting a "Yin-Yang" effect of NO in the cardiovascular homeostasis. Here, we will present a concise overview of the evidence for this novel concept, providing the conceptual framework for developing a potential therapeutic strategy to prevent and treat CAD.

Use of early corticosteroid therapy on ICU admission in patients affected by severe pandemic (H1N1)v influenza A infection.

INTRODUCTION Early use of corticosteroids in patients affected by pandemic (H1N1)v influenza A infection, although relatively common, remains controversial. METHODS Prospective, observational, multicenter study from 23 June 2009 through 11 February 2010, reported in the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine (ESICM) H1N1 registry. RESULTS Two hundred twenty patients admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) with completed outcome data were analyzed. Invasive mechanical ventilation was used in 155 (70.5%). Sixty-seven (30.5%) of the patients died in ICU and 75 (34.1%) whilst in hospital. One hundred twenty-six (57.3%) patients received corticosteroid therapy on admission to ICU. Patients who received corticosteroids were significantly older and were more likely to have coexisting asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and chronic steroid use. These patients receiving corticosteroids had increased likelihood of developing hospital-acquired pneumonia (HAP) [26.2% versus 13.8%, p < 0.05; odds ratio (OR) 2.2, confidence interval (CI) 1.1-4.5]. Patients who received corticosteroids had significantly higher ICU mortality than patients who did not (46.0% versus 18.1%, p < 0.01; OR 3.8, CI 2.1-7.2). Cox regression analysis adjusted for severity and potential confounding factors identified that early use of corticosteroids was not significantly associated with mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 1.3, 95% CI 0.7-2.4, p = 0.4] but was still associated with an increased rate of HAP (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.0-4.8, p < 0.05). When only patients developing acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) were analyzed, similar results were observed. CONCLUSIONS Early use of corticosteroids in patients affected by pandemic (H1N1)v influenza A infection did not result in better outcomes and was associated with increased risk of superinfections.

Clinical characteristics and outcomes in children hospitalised with pandemic influenza A/H1N1/09 virus infection – a nationwide survey by the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Group of Switzerland

OBJECTIVE To describe all patients admitted to children's hospitals in Switzerland with a diagnosis of influenza A/H1N1/09 virus infection during the 2009 influenza pandemic, and to analyse their characteristics, predictors of complications, and outcome. METHODS All patients ≤18-years-old hospitalised in eleven children's hospitals in Switzerland between June 2009 and January 2010 with a positive influenza A/H1N1/09 reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) from a nasopharyngeal specimen were included. RESULTS There were 326 PCR-confirmed patients of whom 189 (58%) were younger than 5 years of age, and 126 (38.7%) had one or more pre-existing medical condition. Fever (median 39.1 °C) was the most common sign (85.6% of all patients), while feeding problems (p = 0.003) and febrile seizures (p = 0.016) were significantly more frequent in children under 5 years. In 142 (43.6%) patients there was clinical suspicion of a concomitant bacterial infection, which was confirmed in 36 patients (11%). However, severe bacterial infection was observed in 4% of patients. One third (n = 108, 33.1%) of the patients were treated with oseltamivir, 64 (59.3%, or 20% overall) within 48 hours of onset of symptoms. Almost half of the patients (45.1%) received antibiotics for a median of 7 days. Twenty patients (6.1%) required intensive care, mostly for complicated pneumonia (50%) without an underlying medical condition. The median duration of hospitalisation was 2 days (range 0-39) for 304 patients. Two children (<15 months of age with underlying disease) died. CONCLUSIONS Although pandemic influenza A/H1N1/09 virus infection in children is mostly mild, it can be severe, regardless of past history or underlying disease.

Canine rabies in Australia: a review of preparedness and research needs

Australia is unique as a populated continent in that canine rabies is exotic, with only one likely incursion in 1867. This is despite the presence of a widespread free-ranging dog population, which includes the naturalized dingo, feral domestic dogs and dingo-dog cross-breeds. To Australia's immediate north, rabies has recently spread within the Indonesian archipelago, with outbreaks occurring in historically free islands to the east including Bali, Flores, Ambon and the Tanimbar Islands. Australia depends on strict quarantine protocols to prevent importation of a rabid animal, but the risk of illegal animal movements by fishing and recreational vessels circumventing quarantine remains. Predicting where rabies will enter Australia is important, but understanding dog population dynamics and interactions, including contact rates in and around human populations, is essential for rabies preparedness. The interactions among and between Australia's large populations of wild, free-roaming and restrained domestic dogs require quantification for rabies incursions to be detected and controlled. The imminent risk of rabies breaching Australian borders makes the development of disease spread models that will assist in the deployment of cost-effective surveillance, improve preventive strategies and guide disease management protocols vitally important. Here, we critically review Australia's preparedness for rabies, discuss prevailing assumptions and models, identify knowledge deficits in free-roaming dog ecology relating to rabies maintenance and speculate on the likely consequences of endemic rabies for Australia.