Integro-difference equations for interacting species and the Neolithic transition

We introduce a set of sequential integro-difference equations to analyze the dynamics of two interacting species. Firstly, we derive the speed of the fronts when a species invades a space previously occupied by a second species, and check its validity by means of numerical random-walk simulations. As an example, we consider the Neolithic transition: the predictions of the model are consistent with the archaeological data for the front speed, provided that the interaction parameter is low enough. Secondly, an equation for the coexistence time between the invasive and the invaded populations is obtained for the first time. It agrees well with the simulations, is consistent with observations of the Neolithic transition, and makes it possible to estimate the value of the interaction parameter between the incoming and the indigenous populations

Fronts from integrodifference equations and persistence effects on the Neolithic transition

We extend a previous model of the Neolithic transition in Europe [J. Fort and V. Méndez, Phys. Rev. Lett. 82, 867 (1999)] by taking two effects into account: (i) we do not use the diffusion approximation (which corresponds to second-order Taylor expansions), and (ii) we take proper care of the fact that parents do not migrate away from their children (we refer to this as a time-order effect, in the sense that it implies that children grow up with their parents, before they become adults and can survive and migrate). We also derive a time-ordered, second-order equation, which we call the sequential reaction-diffusion equation, and use it to show that effect (ii) is the most important one, and that both of them should in general be taken into account to derive accurate results. As an example, we consider the Neolithic transition: the model predictions agree with the observed front speed, and the corrections relative to previous models are important (up to 70%)

Progress in front propagation research

We review the progress in the field of front propagation in recent years. We survey many physical, biophysical and cross-disciplinary applications, including reduced-variable models of combustion flames, Reid's paradox of rapid forest range expansions, the European colonization of North America during the 19th century, the Neolithic transition in Europe from 13 000 to 5000 years ago, the description of subsistence boundaries, the formation of cultural boundaries, the spread of genetic mutations, theory and experiments on virus infections, models of cancer tumors, etc. Recent theoretical advances are unified in a single framework, encompassing very diverse systems such as those with biased random walks, distributed delays, sequential reaction and dispersion, cohabitation models, age structure and systems with several interacting species. Directions for future progress are outlined

Cultural Diffusion Was the Main Driving Mechanism of the Neolithic Transition in Southern Africa

It is well known that the Neolithic transition spread across Europe at a speed of about 1 km/yr. This result has been previously interpreted as a range expansion of the Neolithic driven mainly by demic diffusion (whereas cultural diffusion played a secondary role). However, a long-standing problem is whether this value (1 km/yr) and its interpretation (mainly demic diffusion) are characteristic only of Europe or universal (i.e. intrinsic features of Neolithic transitions all over the world). So far Neolithic spread rates outside Europe have been barely measured, and Neolithic spread rates substantially faster than 1 km/yr have not been previously reported. Here we show that the transition from hunting and gathering into herding in southern Africa spread at a rate of about 2.4 km/yr, i.e. about twice faster than the European Neolithic transition. Thus the value 1 km/yr is not a universal feature of Neolithic transitions in the world. Resorting to a recent demic-cultural wave-of-advance model, we also find that the main mechanism at work in the southern African Neolithic spread was cultural diffusion (whereas demic diffusion played a secondary role). This is in sharp contrast to the European Neolithic. Our results further suggest that Neolithic spread rates could be mainly driven by cultural diffusion in cases where the final state of this transition is herding/pastoralism (such as in southern Africa) rather than farming and stockbreeding (as in Europe)

Cohabitation effect on the slowdown of the Neolithic expansion

We introduce the effect of cohabitation between generations to a previous model on the slowdown of the Neolithic transition in Europe. This effect consists on the fact that human beings do not leave their children alone when they migrate, but on the contrary they cohabit until their children reach adulthood. We also use archaeological data to estimate the variation of the Mesolithic population density with distance, and use this information to predict the slowdown of the Neolithic front speed. The new equation leads to a substantial correction, up to 37%, relative to previous results. The new model is able to provide a satisfactory explanation not only to the relative speed but also to the absolute speed of the Neolithic front obtained from archaeological data

Vertical cultural transmission effects on demic front propagation: Theory and application to the Neolithic transition in Europe

It is shown that Lotka-Volterra interaction terms are not appropriate to describe vertical cultural transmission. Appropriate interaction terms are derived and used to compute the effect of vertical cultural transmission on demic front propagation. They are also applied to a specific example, the Neolithic transition in Europe. In this example, it is found that the effect of vertical cultural transmission can be important (about 30%). On the other hand, simple models based on differential equations can lead to large errors (above 50%). Further physical, biophysical, and cross-disciplinary applications are outlined

Progress in front propagation research

We review the progress in the field of front propagation in recent years. We survey many physical, biophysical and cross-disciplinary applications, including reduced-variable models of combustion flames, Reid's paradox of rapid forest range expansions, the European colonization of North America during the 19th century, the Neolithic transition in Europe from 13 000 to 5000 years ago, the description of subsistence boundaries, the formation of cultural boundaries, the spread of genetic mutations, theory and experiments on virus infections, models of cancer tumors, etc. Recent theoretical advances are unified in a single framework, encompassing very diverse systems such as those with biased random walks, distributed delays, sequential reaction and dispersion, cohabitation models, age structure and systems with several interacting species. Directions for future progress are outlined

Integro-difference equations for interacting species and the Neolithic transition

We introduce a set of sequential integro-difference equations to analyze the dynamics of two interacting species. Firstly, we derive the speed of the fronts when a species invades a space previously occupied by a second species, and check its validity by means of numerical random-walk simulations. As an example, we consider the Neolithic transition: the predictions of the model are consistent with the archaeological data for the front speed, provided that the interaction parameter is low enough. Secondly, an equation for the coexistence time between the invasive and the invaded populations is obtained for the first time. It agrees well with the simulations, is consistent with observations of the Neolithic transition, and makes it possible to estimate the value of the interaction parameter between the incoming and the indigenous populations

Fronts from integrodifference equations and persistence effects on the Neolithic transition

We extend a previous model of the Neolithic transition in Europe [J. Fort and V. Méndez, Phys. Rev. Lett. 82, 867 (1999)] by taking two effects into account: (i) we do not use the diffusion approximation (which corresponds to second-order Taylor expansions), and (ii) we take proper care of the fact that parents do not migrate away from their children (we refer to this as a time-order effect, in the sense that it implies that children grow up with their parents, before they become adults and can survive and migrate). We also derive a time-ordered, second-order equation, which we call the sequential reaction-diffusion equation, and use it to show that effect (ii) is the most important one, and that both of them should in general be taken into account to derive accurate results. As an example, we consider the Neolithic transition: the model predictions agree with the observed front speed, and the corrections relative to previous models are important (up to 70%)

Anisotropic dispersion, space competition, and the slowdown of the Neolithic transition

The front speed of the Neolithic (farmer) spread in Europe decreased as it reached Northern latitudes, where the Mesolithic (huntergatherer) population density was higher. Here, we describe a reaction diffusion model with (i) an anisotropic dispersion kernel depending on the Mesolithic population density gradient and (ii) a modified population growth equation. Both effects are related to the space available for the Neolithic population. The model is able to explain the slowdown of the Neolithic front as observed from archaeological data

Epidemic models with an infected-infectious period

The introduction of an infective-infectious period on the geographic spread of epidemics is considered in two different models. The classical evolution equations arising in the literature are generalized and the existence of epidemic wave fronts is revised. The asymptotic speed is obtained and improves previous results for the Black Death plague

Mathematical modelling of supercritical CO2 extraction of volatile oils from aromatic plants

The modelling of the experimental data of the extraction of the volatile oil from six aromatic plants (coriander, fennel, savoury, winter savoury, cotton lavender and thyme) was performed using five mathematical models, based on differential mass balances. In all cases the extraction was internal diffusion controlled and the internal mass transfer coefficienty (k(s)) have been found to change with pressure, temperature and particle size. For fennel, savoury and cotton lavender, the external mass transfer and the equilibrium phase also influenced the second extraction period, since k(s) changed with the tested flow rates. In general, the axial dispersion coefficient could be neglected for the conditions studied, since Peclet numbers were high. On the other hand, the solute-matrix interaction had to be considered in order to ensure a satisfactory description of the experimental data.

Mathematical model for HIV dynamics in HIV-specific helper cells

In this paper we study a delay mathematical model for the dynamics of HIV in HIV-specific CD4 + T helper cells. We modify the model presented by Roy and Wodarz in 2012, where the HIV dynamics is studied, considering a single CD4 + T cell population. Non-specific helper cells are included as alternative target cell population, to account for macrophages and dendritic cells. In this paper, we include two types of delay: (1) a latent period between the time target cells are contacted by the virus particles and the time the virions enter the cells and; (2) virus production period for new virions to be produced within and released from the infected cells. We compute the reproduction number of the model, R0, and the local stability of the disease free equilibrium and of the endemic equilibrium. We find that for values of R0<1, the model approaches asymptotically the disease free equilibrium. For values of R0>1, the model approximates asymptotically the endemic equilibrium. We observe numerically the phenomenon of backward bifurcation for values of R0⪅1. This statement will be proved in future work. We also vary the values of the latent period and the production period of infected cells and free virus. We conclude that increasing these values translates in a decrease of the reproduction number. Thus, a good strategy to control the HIV virus should focus on drugs to prolong the latent period and/or slow down the virus production. These results suggest that the model is mathematically and epidemiologically well-posed.

The relationship of capitalization period length with market portfolio composition and betas

Beta coefficients are not stable if we modify the observation periods of the returns. The market portfolio composition also varies, whereas changes in the betas are the same, whether they are calculated as regression coefficients or as a ratio of the risk premiums. The instantaneous beta, obtained when the capitalization frequency approaches infinity, may be a useful tool in portfolio selection.

The relationship of capitalization period length with market portfolio composition and betas

Beta coefficients are not stable if we modify the observation periods of the returns. The market portfolio composition also varies, whereas changes in the betas are the same, whether they are calculated as regression coefficients or as a ratio of the risk premiums. The instantaneous beta, obtained when the capitalization frequency approaches infinity, may be a useful tool in portfolio selection.