Delineating environmental envelopes to improve mapping of species distributions, via a hurdle model with CART &/or MaxEnT

Species distribution modelling (SDM) typically analyses species’ presence together with some form of absence information. Ideally absences comprise observations or are inferred from comprehensive sampling. When such information is not available, then pseudo-absences are often generated from the background locations within the study region of interest containing the presences, or else absence is implied through the comparison of presences to the whole study region, e.g. as is the case in Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) or Poisson point process modelling. However, the choice of which absence information to include can be both challenging and highly influential on SDM predictions (e.g. Oksanen and Minchin, 2002). In practice, the use of pseudo- or implied absences often leads to an imbalance where absences far outnumber presences. This leaves analysis highly susceptible to ‘naughty-noughts’: absences that occur beyond the envelope of the species, which can exert strong influence on the model and its predictions (Austin and Meyers, 1996). Also known as ‘excess zeros’, naughty noughts can be estimated via an overall proportion in simple hurdle or mixture models (Martin et al., 2005). However, absences, especially those that occur beyond the species envelope, can often be more diverse than presences. Here we consider an extension to excess zero models. The two-staged approach first exploits the compartmentalisation provided by classification trees (CTs) (as in O’Leary, 2008) to identify multiple sources of naughty noughts and simultaneously delineate several species envelopes. Then SDMs can be fit separately within each envelope, and for this stage, we examine both CTs (as in Falk et al., 2014) and the popular MaxEnt (Elith et al., 2006). We introduce a wider range of model performance measures to improve treatment of naughty noughts in SDM. We retain an overall measure of model performance, the area under the curve (AUC) of the Receiver-Operating Curve (ROC), but focus on its constituent measures of false negative rate (FNR) and false positive rate (FPR), and how these relate to the threshold in the predicted probability of presence that delimits predicted presence from absence. We also propose error rates more relevant to users of predictions: false omission rate (FOR), the chance that a predicted absence corresponds to (and hence wastes) an observed presence, and the false discovery rate (FDR), reflecting those predicted (or potential) presences that correspond to absence. A high FDR may be desirable since it could help target future search efforts, whereas zero or low FOR is desirable since it indicates none of the (often valuable) presences have been ignored in the SDM. For illustration, we chose Bradypus variegatus, a species that has previously been published as an exemplar species for MaxEnt, proposed by Phillips et al. (2006). We used CTs to increasingly refine the species envelope, starting with the whole study region (E0), eliminating more and more potential naughty noughts (E1–E3). When combined with an SDM fit within the species envelope, the best CT SDM had similar AUC and FPR to the best MaxEnt SDM, but otherwise performed better. The FNR and FOR were greatly reduced, suggesting that CTs handle absences better. Interestingly, MaxEnt predictions showed low discriminatory performance, with the most common predicted probability of presence being in the same range (0.00-0.20) for both true absences and presences. In summary, this example shows that SDMs can be improved by introducing an initial hurdle to identify naughty noughts and partition the envelope before applying SDMs. This improvement was barely detectable via AUC and FPR yet visible in FOR, FNR, and the comparison of predicted probability of presence distribution for pres/absence.

Coalescence of drops in stirred dispersion. A white noise model for coalescence

Coalescence between two droplets in a turbulent liquid-liquid dispersion is generally viewed as a consequence of forces exerted on the drop-pair squeezing out the intervening continuous phase to a critical thickness. A new synthesis is proposed herein which models the film drainage as a stochastic process driven by a suitably idealized random process for the fluctuating force. While the true test of the model lies in detailed parameter estimations with measurement of drop-size distributions in coalescing dispersions, experimental measurements on average coalescence frequencies lend preliminary support to the model.

Spectral analysis of pair-correlation bandwidth: Application to cell biology images

Images from cell biology experiments often indicate the presence of cell clustering, which can provide insight into the mechanisms driving the collective cell behaviour. Pair-correlation functions provide quantitative information about the presence, or absence, of clustering in a spatial distribution of cells. This is because the pair-correlation function describes the ratio of the abundance of pairs of cells, separated by a particular distance, relative to a randomly distributed reference population. Pair-correlation functions are often presented as a kernel density estimate where the frequency of pairs of objects are grouped using a particular bandwidth (or bin width), Δ>0. The choice of bandwidth has a dramatic impact: choosing Δ too large produces a pair-correlation function that contains insufficient information, whereas choosing Δ too small produces a pair-correlation signal dominated by fluctuations. Presently, there is little guidance available regarding how to make an objective choice of Δ. We present a new technique to choose Δ by analysing the power spectrum of the discrete Fourier transform of the pair-correlation function. Using synthetic simulation data, we confirm that our approach allows us to objectively choose Δ such that the appropriately binned pair-correlation function captures known features in uniform and clustered synthetic images. We also apply our technique to images from two different cell biology assays. The first assay corresponds to an approximately uniform distribution of cells, while the second assay involves a time series of images of a cell population which forms aggregates over time. The appropriately binned pair-correlation function allows us to make quantitative inferences about the average aggregate size, as well as quantifying how the average aggregate size changes with time.

A cooperative game of a pair of learning automata

A cooperative game played in a sequential manner by a pair of learning automata is investigated in this paper. The automata operate in an unknown random environment which gives a common pay-off to the automata. Necessary and sufficient conditions on the functions in the reinforcement scheme are given for absolute monotonicity which enables the expected pay-off to be monotonically increasing in any arbitrary environment. As each participating automaton operates with no information regarding the other partner, the results of the paper are relevant to decentralized control.

Lone-pair interactionsnext term in previous termmolecules

Theoretically calculated previous termlone-pairnext term splittings in H2O2, H2S2, N2H4, P2H4, glyoxal and dithioglyoxal have been compared with experimental values. Potential functions for rotation and the effect of geometry relaxation on rotomer energies have also been examined.

Genomewide linkage study in 1,176 affected sister pair families identifies a significant susceptibility locus for endometriosis on chromosome 10q26

Endometriosis is a common gynecological disease that affects up to 10% of women in their reproductive years. It causes pelvic pain, severe dysmenorrhea, and subfertility. The disease is defined as the presence of tissue resembling endometrium in sites outside the uterus. Its cause remains uncertain despite >50 years of hypothesis-driven research, and thus the therapeutic options are limited. Disease predisposition is inherited as a complex genetic trait, which provides an alternative route to understanding the disease. We seek to identify susceptibility loci, using a positional-cloning approach that starts with linkage analysis to identify genomic regions likely to harbor these genes. We conducted a linkage study of 1,176 families (931 from an Australian group and 245 from a U.K. group), each with at least two members--mainly affected sister pairs--with surgically diagnosed disease. We have identified a region of significant linkage on chromosome 10q26 (maximum LOD score [MLS] of 3.09; genomewide P = .047) and another region of suggestive linkage on chromosome 20p13 (MLS = 2.09). Minor peaks (with MLS > 1.0) were found on chromosomes 2, 6, 7, 8, 12, 14, 15, and 17. This is the first report of linkage to a major locus for endometriosis. The findings will facilitate discovery of novel positional genetic variants that influence the risk of developing this debilitating disease. Greater understanding of the aberrant cellular and molecular mechanisms involved in the etiology and pathophysiology of endometriosis should lead to better diagnostic methods and targeted treatments.

Photo-Electron Spectroscopic Studies Of The Adsorption Of Organic-Molecules With Lone Pair Orbitals On Transition-Metal Surfaces

Ultraviolet and x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy have been employed to investigate the adsorption of methanol, ethanol, diethylether, acetaldehyde, acetone, methyl acetate and methylamine on surfaces of Fe, Ni and Cu. All these molecules adsorb molecularly at low temperatures (≤100 K). Lone pair orbitals of these molecules are stabilized on these metal surfaces (by 0·4–1·0eV) due to molecular chemisorption. The molecules generally undergo transformations as the temperature is raised to 120 K or above. The new species produced seems to depend on the metal surface. Some of the product species identified are methoxy species, formaldehyde and carbon monoxide in the case of methanol and methyl acetate, ethoxy species in the case of ethanol and 2-propanol in the case of acetone.

Dynamics of dense sheared granular flows. Part II. The relative velocity distributions

The distribution of relative velocities between colliding particles in shear flows of inelastic spheres is analysed in the Volume fraction range 0.4-0.64. Particle interactions are considered to be due to instantaneous binary collisions, and the collision model has a normal coefficient of restitution e(n) (negative of the ratio of the post- and pre-collisional relative velocities of the particles along the line joining the centres) and a tangential coefficient of restitution e(t) (negative of the ratio of post- and pre-collisional velocities perpendicular to line joining the centres). The distribution or pre-collisional normal relative velocities (along the line Joining the centres of the particles) is Found to be an exponential distribution for particles with low normal coefficient of restitution in the range 0.6-0.7. This is in contrast to the Gaussian distribution for the normal relative velocity in all elastic fluid in the absence of shear. A composite distribution function, which consists of an exponential and a Gaussian component, is proposed to span the range of inelasticities considered here. In the case of roughd particles, the relative velocity tangential to the surfaces at contact is also evaluated, and it is found to be close to a Gaussian distribution even for highly inelastic particles.Empirical relations are formulated for the relative velocity distribution. These are used to calculate the collisional contributions to the pressure, shear stress and the energy dissipation rate in a shear flow. The results of the calculation were round to be in quantitative agreement with simulation results, even for low coefficients of restitution for which the predictions obtained using the Enskog approximation are in error by an order of magnitude. The results are also applied to the flow down an inclined plane, to predict the angle of repose and the variation of the volume fraction with angle of inclination. These results are also found to be in quantitative agreement with previous simulations.

A new family of multivariate heavy-tailed distributions with variable marginal amounts of tailweight: Application to robust clustering

We propose a family of multivariate heavy-tailed distributions that allow variable marginal amounts of tailweight. The originality comes from introducing multidimensional instead of univariate scale variables for the mixture of scaled Gaussian family of distributions. In contrast to most existing approaches, the derived distributions can account for a variety of shapes and have a simple tractable form with a closed-form probability density function whatever the dimension. We examine a number of properties of these distributions and illustrate them in the particular case of Pearson type VII and t tails. For these latter cases, we provide maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters and illustrate their modelling flexibility on simulated and real data clustering examples.

Natural frequencies of rectangular orthotropic plates with a pair of parallel edges simply supported

Solutions of the exact characteristic equations for the title problem derived earlier by an extension of Bolotin's asymptotic method are considered. These solutions, which correspond to flexural modes with frequency factor, R, greater than unity, are expressed in convenient forms for all combinations of clamped, simply supported and free conditions at the remaining pair of parallel edges. As in the case of uniform beams, the eigenvalues in the CC case are found to be equal to those of elastic modes in the FF case provided that the Kirchoff's shear condition at a free edge is replaced by the condition. The flexural modes with frequency factor less than unity are also investigated in detail by introducing a suitable modification in the procedure. When Poisson's ratios are not zero, it is shown that the frequency factor corresponding to the first symmetric mode in the free-free case is less than unity for all values of side ratio and rigidity ratios. In the case of one edge clamped and the other free it is found that modes with frequency factor less than unity exist for certain dimensions of the plate—a fact hitherto unrecognized in the literature.

Bayesian mixture model estimation of aerosol particle size distributions

In this paper, we examine approaches to estimate a Bayesian mixture model at both single and multiple time points for a sample of actual and simulated aerosol particle size distribution (PSD) data. For estimation of a mixture model at a single time point, we use Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) to estimate mixture model parameters including the number of components which is assumed to be unknown. We compare the results of this approach to a commonly used estimation method in the aerosol physics literature. As PSD data is often measured over time, often at small time intervals, we also examine the use of an informative prior for estimation of the mixture parameters which takes into account the correlated nature of the parameters. The Bayesian mixture model offers a promising approach, providing advantages both in estimation and inference.

A quantum chemical investigation of the metal centres in cytochrome c oxidase

Quantum effects are often of key importance for the function of biological systems at molecular level. Cellular respiration, where energy is extracted from the reduction of molecular oxygen to water, is no exception. In this work, the end station of the electron transport chain in mitochondria, cytochrome c oxidase, is investigated using quantum chemical methodology. Cytochrome c oxidase contains two haems, haem a and haem a3. Haem a3, with its copper companion, CuB, is involved in the final reduction of oxygen into water. This binuclear centre receives the necessary electrons from haem a. Haem a, in turn, receives its electrons from a copper ion pair in the vicinity, called CuA. Density functional theory (DFT) has been used to clarify the charge and spin distributions of haem a, as well as changes in these during redox activity. Upon reduction, the added electron is shown to be evenly distributed over the entire haem structure, important for the accommodation of the prosthetic group within the protein. At the same time, the spin distribution of the open-shell oxidised state is more localised to the central iron. The exact spin density distribution has been disputed in the literature, however, different experiments indicating different distributions of the unpaired electron. The apparent contradiction is shown to be due to the false assumption of a unit amount of unpaired electron density; in fact, the oxidised state has about 1.3 unpaired electrons. The validity of the DFT results have been corroborated by wave function based coupled cluster calculations. Point charges, for use in classical force field based simulations, have been parameterised for the four metal centres, using a newly developed methodology. In the procedure, the subsystem for which point charges are to be obtained, is surrounded by an outer region, with the purpose of stabilising the inner region, both electronically and structurally. Finally, the possibility of vibrational promotion of the electron transfer step between haem a and a3 has been investigated. Calculating the full vibrational spectra, at DFT level, of a combined model of the two haems, revealed several normal modes that do shift electron density between the haems. The magnitude of the shift was found to be moderate, at most. The proposed mechanism could have an assisting role in the electron transfer, which still seems to be dominated by electron tunnelling.

Optimal adaptive sequential spatial sampling of soil using pair-copulas

A spatial sampling design that uses pair-copulas is presented that aims to reduce prediction uncertainty by selecting additional sampling locations based on both the spatial configuration of existing locations and the values of the observations at those locations. The novelty of the approach arises in the use of pair-copulas to estimate uncertainty at unsampled locations. Spatial pair-copulas are able to more accurately capture spatial dependence compared to other types of spatial copula models. Additionally, unlike traditional kriging variance, uncertainty estimates from the pair-copula account for influence from measurement values and not just the configuration of observations. This feature is beneficial, for example, for more accurate identification of soil contamination zones where high contamination measurements are located near measurements of varying contamination. The proposed design methodology is applied to a soil contamination example from the Swiss Jura region. A partial redesign of the original sampling configuration demonstrates the potential of the proposed methodology.

Influence of Hydrophilic Surface Specificity on the Structural Properties of Confined Water

The influence of chemical specificity of hydrophilic surfaces on the structure of confined water in the subnanometer regime is investigated using grand canonical Monte Carlo Simulations. The structural variations for water confined between hydroxylated silica surfaces are contrasted with water confined between mica surfaces. Although both surfaces are hydrophilic, our Study shows that hydration of potassium ions on the mica surface has a strong influence on the water Structure and solvation force response of confined water. In contrast to the disrupted hydrogen bond network observed for water confined between Mica Surfaces, water between silica surfaces retains its hydrogen bond network displaying bulklike structural features down to surface separations as small as 0.45 nm. Hydrogen bonding of all invariant contact water layer with the surface silanol groups aids in maintaining a constant number of hydrogen bonds per water molecule for the silica surfaces. As a consequence water depletion and rearrangement upon decreasing confinement is a strong function of the hydrophilic surface specificity, particularly at smaller separations. An oscillatory solvation force response is only observed for water confined between Silica surfaces, and bulklike features are observed for both Surfaces above a surface separation of about 1.2 nm. We evaluate and contrast the water density, dipole moment distributions, pi pair correlation functions, and solvation forces as a function of the surface separation.

Electron energy distributions and transport coefficients in N2 in E times B fields

Using the concept of energy-dependent effective field intensity, electron transport coefficients in nitrogen have been determined in E times B fields (E = electric field intensity, B = magnetic flux density) by the numerical solution of the Boltzmann transport equation for the energy distribution of electrons. It has been observed that as the value of B/p (p = gas pressure) is increased from zero, the perpendicular drift velocity increased linearly at first, reaches a maximum value, and then decreases with increasing B/p. In general, the electron mean energy is found to be a function of Eavet/p( Eavet = averaged effective electric field intensity) only, but the other transport coefficients, such as transverse drift velocity, perpendicular drift velocity, and the Townsend ionization coefficient, are functions of both E/p and B/p.