Visualizing probabilistic flood forecast information: expert preferences and perceptions of best practice in uncertainty communication

The aim of this article is to improve the communication of the probabilistic flood forecasts generated by hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) by understanding perceptions of different methods of visualizing probabilistic forecast information. This study focuses on interexpert communication and accounts for differences in visualization requirements based on the information content necessary for individual users. The perceptions of the expert group addressed in this study are important because they are the designers and primary users of existing HEPS. Nevertheless, they have sometimes resisted the release of uncertainty information to the general public because of doubts about whether it can be successfully communicated in ways that would be readily understood to nonexperts. In this article, we explore the strengths and weaknesses of existing HEPS visualization methods and thereby formulate some wider recommendations about the best practice for HEPS visualization and communication. We suggest that specific training on probabilistic forecasting would foster use of probabilistic forecasts with a wider range of applications. The result of a case study exercise showed that there is no overarching agreement between experts on how to display probabilistic forecasts and what they consider the essential information that should accompany plots and diagrams. In this article, we propose a list of minimum properties that, if consistently displayed with probabilistic forecasts, would make the products more easily understandable. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

High resolution simulation of the variability of surface energy balance fluxes across central London with urban zones for energy partitioning

The parameterization of surface heat-flux variability in urban areas relies on adequate representation of surface characteristics. Given the horizontal resolutions (e.g. ≈0.1–1km) currently used in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, properties of the urban surface (e.g. vegetated/built surfaces, street-canyon geometries) often have large spatial variability. Here, a new approach based on Urban Zones to characterize Energy partitioning (UZE) is tested within a NWP model (Weather Research and Forecasting model;WRF v3.2.1) for Greater London. The urban land-surface scheme is the Noah/Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model (SLUCM). Detailed surface information (horizontal resolution 1 km)in central London shows that the UZE offers better characterization of surface properties and their variability compared to default WRF-SLUCM input parameters. In situ observations of the surface energy fluxes and near-surface meteorological variables are used to select the radiation and turbulence parameterization schemes and to evaluate the land-surface scheme

Nature of vegetation and building morphology characteristics across a city: influence on shadow patterns and mean radiant temperatures in London

Vegetation and building morphology characteristics are investigated at 19 sites on a north-south LiDAR transect across the megacity of London. Local maxima of mean building height and building plan area density at the city centre are evident. Surprisingly, the mean vegetation height (zv3) is also found to be highest in the city centre. From the LiDAR data various morphological parameters are derived as well as shadow patterns. Continuous images of the effects of buildings and of buildings plus vegetationon sky view factor (Ψ) are derived. A general reduction of Ψ is found, indicating the importance of including vegetation when deriving Ψ in urban areas. The contribution of vegetation to the shadowing at ground level is higher during summer than in autumn. Using these 3D data the influence on urban climate and mean radiant temperature (T mrt ) is calculated with SOLWEIG. The results from these simulations highlight that vegetation can be most effective at reducing heat stress within dense urban environments in summer. The daytime average T mrt is found to be lowest in the densest urban environments due to shadowing; foremost from buildings but also from trees. It is clearly shown that this method could be used to quantify the influence of vegetation on T mrt within the urban environment. The results presented in this paper highlight a number of possible climate sensitive planning practices for urban areas at the local scale (i.e. 102- 5 × 103 m).

The influence of vegetation and building morphology on shadow patterns and mean radiant temperatures in urban areas: model development and evaluation

The solar and longwave environmental irradiance geometry (SOLWEIG) model simulates spatial variations of 3-D radiation fluxes and mean radiant temperature (T mrt) as well as shadow patterns in complex urban settings. In this paper, a new vegetation scheme is included in SOLWEIG and evaluated. The new shadow casting algorithm for complex vegetation structures makes it possible to obtain continuous images of shadow patterns and sky view factors taking both buildings and vegetation into account. For the calculation of 3-D radiation fluxes and T mrt, SOLWEIG only requires a limited number of inputs, such as global shortwave radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, geographical information (latitude, longitude and elevation) and urban geometry represented by high-resolution ground and building digital elevation models (DEM). Trees and bushes are represented by separate DEMs. The model is evaluated using 5 days of integral radiation measurements at two sites within a square surrounded by low-rise buildings and vegetation in Göteborg, Sweden (57°N). There is good agreement between modelled and observed values of T mrt, with an overall correspondence of R 2 = 0.91 (p < 0.01, RMSE = 3.1 K). A small overestimation of T mrt is found at locations shadowed by vegetation. Given this good performance a number of suggestions for future development are identified for applications which include for human comfort, building design, planning and evaluation of instrument exposure.

Local-scale urban meteorological parameterization scheme (LUMPS): longwave radiation parameterization and seasonality-related developments

Recent developments to the Local-scale Urban Meteorological Parameterization Scheme (LUMPS), a simple model able to simulate the urban energy balance, are presented. The major development is the coupling of LUMPS to the Net All-Wave Radiation Parameterization (NARP). Other enhancements include that the model now accounts for the changing availability of water at the surface, seasonal variations of active vegetation, and the anthropogenic heat flux, while maintaining the need for only commonly available meteorological observations and basic surface characteristics. The incoming component of the longwave radiation (L↓) in NARP is improved through a simple relation derived using cloud cover observations from a ceilometer collected in central London, England. The new L↓ formulation is evaluated with two independent multiyear datasets (Łódź, Poland, and Baltimore, Maryland) and compared with alternatives that include the original NARP and a simpler one using the National Climatic Data Center cloud observation database as input. The performance for the surface energy balance fluxes is assessed using a 2-yr dataset (Łódź). Results have an overall RMSE < 34 W m−2 for all surface energy balance fluxes over the 2-yr period when

Ensemble forecasting using TIGGE for the July-September 2008 floods in the Upper Huai catchment: a case study.

We present a case study using the TIGGE database for flood warning in the Upper Huai catchment (ca. 30 672 km2). TIGGE ensemble forecasts from 6 meteorological centres with 10-day lead time were extracted and disaggregated to drive the Xinanjiang model to forecast discharges for flood events in July-September 2008. The results demonstrated satisfactory flood forecasting skills with clear signals of floods up to 10 days in advance. The forecasts occasionally show discrepancies both in time and space. Forecasting quality could potentially be improved by using temporal and spatial corrections of the forecasted precipitation.

Drug permeability in 16HBE14o- airway cell layers correlates with absorption from the isolated perfused rat lung

The permeability of the lung is critical in determining the disposition of inhaled drugs and the respiratory epithelium provides the main physical barrier to drug absorption. The 16HBE14o- human bronchial epithelial cell line has been developed recently as a model of the airway epithelium. In this study, the transport of 10 low molecular weight compounds was measured in the 16HBE14o- cell layers, with apical to basolateral (absorptive) apparent permeability coefficients (P(app)) ranging from 0.4 x 10(-6)cms(-1) for Tyr-D-Arg-Phe-Phe-NH(2) to 25.2x10(-6)cms(-1) for metoprolol. Permeability in 16HBE14o- cells was found to correlate with previously reported P(app) in Caco-2 cells and absorption rates in the isolated perfused rat lung (k(a,lung)) and the rat lung in vivo (k(a,in vivo)). Log linear relationships were established between P(app) in 16HBE14o- cells and P(app) in Caco-2 cells (r(2)=0.82), k(a,lung) (r(2)=0.78) and k(a,in vivo) (r(2)=0.68). The findings suggest that permeability in 16HBE14o- cells may be useful to predict the permeability of compounds in the lung, although no advantage of using the organ-specific cell line 16HBE14o- compared to Caco-2 cells was found in this study.

Bilayer graphene formed by passage of current through graphite: evidence for a three-dimensional structure

The passage of an electric current through graphite or few-layer graphene can result in a striking structural transformation, but there is disagreement about the precise nature of this process. Some workers have interpreted the phenomenon in terms of the sublimation and edge reconstruction of essentially flat graphitic structures. An alternative explanation is that the transformation actually involves a change from a flat to a three-dimensional structure. Here we describe detailed studies of carbon produced by the passage of a current through graphite which provide strong evidence that the transformed carbon is indeed three-dimensional. The evidence comes primarily from images obtained in the scanning transmission electron microscope using the technique of high-angle annular dark-field imaging, and from a detailed analysis of electron energy loss spectra. We discuss the possible mechanism of the transformation, and consider potential applications of “three-dimensional bilayer graphene”.

Influence of ground surface characteristics on the mean radiant temperature in urban areas

The effect of variations in land cover on mean radiant surface temperature (Tmrt) is explored through a simple scheme developed within the radiation model SOLWEIG. Outgoing longwave radiation is parameterised using surface temperature observations on a grass and an asphalt surface, whereas outgoing shortwave radiation is modelled through variations in albedo for the different surfaces. The influence of surface materials on Tmrt is small compared to the effects of shadowing. Nevertheless, altering ground surface materials could contribute to a reduction on Tmrt to reduce the radiant load during heat-wave episodes in locations where shadowing is not an option. Evaluation of the new scheme suggests that despite its simplicity it can simulate the outgoing fluxes well, especially during sunny conditions. However, it underestimates at night and in shadowed locations. One grass surface used to develop the parameterisation, with very different characteristics compared to an evaluation grass site, caused Tmrt to be underestimated. The implications of using high resolution (e.g. 15 minutes) temporal forcing data under partly cloudy conditions are demonstrated even for fairly proximal sites.

Uncertainties in tidally adjusted estimates of sea level rise flooding (bathtub model) for the Greater London

Sea-level rise (SLR) from global warming may have severe consequences for coastal cities, particularly when combined with predicted increases in the strength of tidal surges. Predicting the regional impact of SLR flooding is strongly dependent on the modelling approach and accuracy of topographic data. Here, the areas under risk of sea water flooding for London boroughs were quantified based on the projected SLR scenarios reported in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5) and UK climatic projections 2009 (UKCP09) using a tidally-adjusted bathtub modelling approach. Medium- to very high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) are used to evaluate inundation extents as well as uncertainties. Depending on the SLR scenario and DEMs used, it is estimated that 3%–8% of the area of Greater London could be inundated by 2100. The boroughs with the largest areas at risk of flooding are Newham, Southwark, and Greenwich. The differences in inundation areas estimated from a digital terrain model and a digital surface model are much greater than the root mean square error differences observed between the two data types, which may be attributed to processing levels. Flood models from SRTM data underestimate the inundation extent, so their results may not be reliable for constructing flood risk maps. This analysis provides a broad-scale estimate of the potential consequences of SLR and uncertainties in the DEM-based bathtub type flood inundation modelling for London boroughs.

Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game

Probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts have over the last decades been used more frequently to communicate forecastuncertainty. This uncertainty is twofold, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic over deterministic forecasts across the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty to transform the probability of occurrence of an event into a binary decision. This paper presents the results of a risk-based decision-making game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called “How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?”. The game was played at several workshops in 2015, which were attended by operational forecasters and academics working in the field of hydrometeorology. The aim of this game was to better understand the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers. Based on the participants’ willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game show that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers.

Det talade ordet gäller : Välkommen till de nya moderaterna

Denna uppsats analyserar den moderata partiledarens Fredrik Reinfeldts partistämmotal på partistämman 2005 i syfte att utröna huruvida den uttryckta ideologin i dessa tal är typiskt moderata, eller om den mediala ryktesspridningen som ägde rum under hösten samma år, angående ett eventuell närmande till socialdemokratin, var ett grundat påstående. Uppsatsen behandlar Fredrik Reinfeldts inledande och avslutande partistämmotal att analyseras via en interpretativ modell baserad på idealtyper och parametrar. Denna modell kompletteras med en intertextuell jämförelse mellan Reinfeldts tal och partistämmotal från Carl Bildt och Bo Lundgren. Avslutningsvis följer en kortfattad hermeneutisk reflektion. Totalt rör det sig om sex tal som analyseras. Tidsperspektivet motiveras i forskningsläget och i stycket material. Resultatet visar att Fredrik Reinfeldts uttryckta ideologi skilde sig från den typiska moderata ideologin på en rad punkter. Skillnaden kunde utskiljas i både parametrarna såväl som i kontrast till den moderata idealtypen. Vad som skiljer Reinfeldt från de två övriga partiledarna och som framställer honom i en mer socialdemokratisk dager än tidigare moderater, är att han anknyter till en traditionell konservativ tankegång där en politiker skall hysa respekt till vad som redan skapats i fråga om samhällsinstitutioner och traditioner. Det historiska arvet i statsapparaten måste förändras varsamt och långsamt. Politik skall reformera samhället inte vända det upp och ner via radikala omställningar. Således handlar hans politik om att applicera den moderata ideologin på den redan existerande, av socialdemokratin skapade, välfärdsstaten. Mötet mellan en efter konservativt tillrättalagd, moderat tanke och en socialdemokratisk struktur, skapar ett slags socialliberalt mellanläge. Fredrik Reinfeldt uppvisar även en mer tudelad syn på människan och en större tilltro till välfärdsfunktionerna.

Trycksår : Omvårdnadsåtgärder vid trycksårsprevention och sårläkning

Syftet med denna systematiska litteraturstudie var att ta reda på vilka mätinstrument som används för att identifiera patienter med risk att utveckla trycksår samt beskriva vilka omvårdnadsåtgärder som har betydelse för trycksårsprevention och sårläkning. De vetenskapliga artiklarna (n=16) som ingick i denna studie söktes i databasen Elin@dalarna. Sökorden som användes var pressure ulcer i olika kombinationer med nutrition, activity, skin, Norton, treatment och hydrocolloid. Inklusionskriterierna var att artiklarna skulle vara publicerade mellan åren 1999-2006 och vara i fulltext samt svensk och/eller engelskspråkig. Resultatet visade att patienter borde riskbedömas för trycksår så snart som möjligt efter att de anlänt till vårdinrättningen. Bedömningen kunde göras med ett flertal olika evidensbaserade mätinstrument såsom Norton, modifierad Norton, Braden, modifierad Braden, och RAPS skalorna samt bedömning av BMI, serum albuminvärde och hudtemperatur. Sjuksköterskans omvårdnadsåtgärder gällande prevention och sårläkning var att snabbt mobilisera patienter. Hos immobiliserade patienter var det viktigt att dessa vändes varannan timme samt att sjuksköterskan använde kuddar, fårskinn eller anti- decubitus madrasser för att tryckavlasta huden i denna patientgrupp. Resultatet visade även att kosttillägg hade stor betydelse för trycksårsprevention och sårläkning. Det var viktigt att sjuksköterskan rengjorde såret med tvål/vatten eller natriumklorid och använde hydrocolloida förband för att få en optimal sårläkning.

Spanskt sjuk på ett sjukhus i Sverige : Spanska sjukans utbrott på Säters hospital hösten 1918

Spanska sjukan var en världsomfattande epidemi, en pandemi, som drog över världen i flera influensavågor mellan 1918-1920. Syftet har varit att ta reda på hur Säters hospital drabbades av och hanterade influensautbrottet 1918. Med hjälp av överläkarens årsberättelse för 1918 har jag lyckats få fram att 40,7 % av alla patienter blev smittade av spanska sjukan varav 15,3 % av dem avled till följd av sjukdomen. 529 personer smittades av spanska sjukan på Säters sjukhusområde varav 57 personer avled, vilket motsvarar 10,8 %. Av de 529 smittade männen och kvinnorna avled 12,6 % kvinnor (34 stycken) och 8,9 % män (23 stycken) till följd av in-fluensan. Överläkaren beskrev i årsberättelsen att Säters hospital klarade sig förhållandevis bra, tack var det paviljongsystemet som möjliggjorde att influensan kunde isoleras.