A Study of Shallow Groundwater Migration through Anthropogenic Fill along a Seawall

This report provides the findings and opinions of a historical document review, hydraulic balance calculation, and proposed additional study for a property that was historically used as a bulk petroleum storage and distribution facility. The property lies along the base, west, of a heavily vegetated bluff with a tidally influenced body of water west-adjacent to the property. The western portion of the property is bounded by a seawall spanning approximately 3,200 linear feet trending north-south. The seawall’s construction details are not known, save for a 225-foot section of driven sheet pile wall located within the northern portion of the property’s seawall. Due to the presence of petroleum hydrocarbons in soil and groundwater at the property, a cleanup action for the property will likely be overseen by the state regulatory agency. The property is currently undergoing remedial investigation in an effort to identify the lateral and vertical extent in which contaminants at the property have come to be located, also known as the “site” as defined by the Model Toxics Control Act (MTCA). The majority of the property bounded within the seawall area has been characterized; however, the shoreline sediments located immediately west-adjacent of the seawall have not been properly delineated. Identifying the bounds of the site to the west within sediment is pivotal for the purposes of the remedial investigation. Since the west-adjacent shoreline is so extensive, conducting a complete sediment sampling event along the entire shoreline would be cost-prohibitive due to analytical costs and logistical issues at the property. Because of the extensive nature of the shoreline, it would greatly benefit the client and project to focus sampling efforts at areas of greater risk for contaminants along the shoreline by identifying potential preferential pathways for contaminants to migrate off of the property and into adjacent shoreline sediments. The review of historical studies of the property yielded some useful information; however much of the findings included within the historical studies were lacking original raw data, therefore limiting the information obtained. The calculated hydraulic balance for the property yielded a relatively large surplus of recharge to groundwater after precipitation events, reinforcing the concept that contaminant have potentially historically, and currently, been migrating into the adjacent shoreline through preferential pathways along the seawall. Due to the limitation within the historical studies for the property as well as the groundwater recharge identified in the hydraulic balance, an additional study was proposed in an effort to provide additional aquifer characteristics along the seawall, and the ability to observe flow propagation at and proximate to the seawall in two-dimensions through time without the need to piece separate studies together. This proposed study includes a single simultaneous tidal study which comprises select monitoring points along the seawall. This report has identified the need for additional data that can be collected through available avenues for the property based upon the client’s desires and project needs. Ultimately, the proposed additional study is suggested based upon its relatively low capital investment, and ability meet the requirements relevant to the specific project needs and scope. Assuming preferential pathways are identified through the additional study proposed within this report, a representative and cost-effective sediment sampling plan can then be put in place in an effort to define the site.

Bayesian data assimilation

This thesis addresses data assimilation, which typically refers to the estimation of the state of a physical system given a model and observations, and its application to short-term precipitation forecasting. A general introduction to data assimilation is given, both from a deterministic and' stochastic point of view. Data assimilation algorithms are reviewed, in the static case (when no dynamics are involved), then in the dynamic case. A double experiment on two non-linear models, the Lorenz 63 and the Lorenz 96 models, is run and the comparative performance of the methods is discussed in terms of quality of the assimilation, robustness "in the non-linear regime and computational time. Following the general review and analysis, data assimilation is discussed in the particular context of very short-term rainfall forecasting (nowcasting) using radar images. An extended Bayesian precipitation nowcasting model is introduced. The model is stochastic in nature and relies on the spatial decomposition of the rainfall field into rain "cells". Radar observations are assimilated using a Variational Bayesian method in which the true posterior distribution of the parameters is approximated by a more tractable distribution. The motion of the cells is captured by a 20 Gaussian process. The model is tested on two precipitation events, the first dominated by convective showers, the second by precipitation fronts. Several deterministic and probabilistic validation methods are applied and the model is shown to retain reasonable prediction skill at up to 3 hours lead time. Extensions to the model are discussed.

Effects of Simulated Drought on the Carbon Balance of Everglades Short-Hydroperiod Marsh

Hydrology drives the carbon balance of wetlands by controlling the uptake and release of CO2 and CH4. Longer dry periods in between heavier precipitation events predicted for the Everglades region, may alter the stability of large carbon pools in this wetland's ecosystems. To determine the effects of drought on CO2 fluxes and CH4 emissions, we simulated changes in hydroperiod with three scenarios that differed in the onset rate of drought (gradual, intermediate, and rapid transition into drought) on 18 freshwater wetland monoliths collected from an Everglades short-hydroperiod marsh. Simulated drought, regardless of the onset rate, resulted in higher net CO2 losses net ecosystem exchange (NEE) over the 22-week manipulation. Drought caused extensive vegetation dieback, increased ecosystem respiration (Reco), and reduced carbon uptake gross ecosystem exchange (GEE). Photosynthetic potential measured by reflective indices (photochemical reflectance index, water index, normalized phaeophytinization index, and the normalized difference vegetation index) indicated that water stress limited GEE and inhibited Reco. As a result of drought-induced dieback, NEE did not offset methane production during periods of inundation. The average ratio of net CH4 to NEE over the study period was 0.06, surpassing the 100-year greenhouse warming compensation point for CH4 (0.04). Drought-induced diebacks of sawgrass (C3) led to the establishment of the invasive species torpedograss (C4) when water was resupplied. These changes in the structure and function indicate that freshwater marsh ecosystems can become a net source of CO2 and CH4 to the atmosphere, even following an extended drought. Future changes in precipitation patterns and drought occurrence/duration can change the carbon storage capacity of freshwater marshes from sinks to sources of carbon to the atmosphere. Therefore, climate change will impact the carbon storage capacity of freshwater marshes by influencing water availability and the potential for positive feedbacks on radiative forcing.

Development and evaluation of a geographic information system based method to estimate flooding susceptibility in an area of Broward County, Florida

The objective of this study was to develop a GIS-based multi-class index overlay model to determine areas susceptible to inland flooding during extreme precipitation events in Broward County, Florida. Data layers used in the method include Airborne Laser Terrain Mapper (ALTM) elevation data, excess precipitation depth determined through performing a Soil Conservation Service (SCS) Curve Number (CN) analysis, and the slope of the terrain. The method includes a calibration procedure that uses "weights and scores" criteria obtained from Hurricane Irene (1999) records, a reported 100-year precipitation event, Doppler radar data and documented flooding locations. Results are displayed in maps of Eastern Broward County depicting types of flooding scenarios for a 100-year, 24-hour storm based on the soil saturation conditions. As expected the results of the multi-class index overlay analysis showed that an increase for the potential of inland flooding could be expected when a higher antecedent moisture condition is experienced. The proposed method proves to have some potential as a predictive tool for flooding susceptibility based on a relatively simple approach.

Flood risk analysis of the White Oak Creek watershed in Oak Ridge, Tennessee using MIKE SHE and MIKE 11 software

The purpose of this study was to determine the flooding potential of contaminated areas within the White Oak Creek watershed in the Oak Ridge Reservation in Tennessee. The watershed was analyzed with an integrated surface and subsurface numerical model based on MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 software. The model was calibrated and validated using five decades of historical data. A series of simulations were conducted to determine the watershed response to 25 year, 100 year and 500 year precipitation forecasts; flooding maps were generated for those events. Predicted flood events were compared to Log Pearson III flood flow frequency values for validation. This investigation also provides an improved understanding of the water fluxes between the surface and subsurface subdomains as they affect flood frequencies. In sum, this study presents crucial information to further assess the environmental risks of potential mobilization of contaminants of concern during extreme precipitation events.

Modelagem estatística e atribuições dos eventos de precipitação extrema na Amazônia brasileira

Intense precipitation events (IPE) have been causing great social and economic losses in the affected regions. In the Amazon, these events can have serious impacts, primarily for populations living on the margins of its countless rivers, because when water levels are elevated, floods and/or inundations are generally observed. Thus, the main objective of this research is to study IPE, through Extreme Value Theory (EVT), to estimate return periods of these events and identify regions of the Brazilian Amazon where IPE have the largest values. The study was performed using daily rainfall data of the hydrometeorological network managed by the National Water Agency (Agência Nacional de Água) and the Meteorological Data Bank for Education and Research (Banco de Dados Meteorológicos para Ensino e Pesquisa) of the National Institute of Meteorology (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia), covering the period 1983-2012. First, homogeneous rainfall regions were determined through cluster analysis, using the hierarchical agglomerative Ward method. Then synthetic series to represent the homogeneous regions were created. Next EVT, was applied in these series, through Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The goodness of fit of these distributions were evaluated by the application of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, which compares the cumulated empirical distributions with the theoretical ones. Finally, the composition technique was used to characterize the prevailing atmospheric patterns for the occurrence of IPE. The results suggest that the Brazilian Amazon has six pluvial homogeneous regions. It is expected more severe IPE to occur in the south and in the Amazon coast. More intense rainfall events are expected during the rainy or transitions seasons of each sub-region, with total daily precipitation of 146.1, 143.1 and 109.4 mm (GEV) and 201.6, 209.5 and 152.4 mm (GPD), at least once year, in the south, in the coast and in the northwest of the Brazilian Amazon, respectively. For the south Amazonia, the composition analysis revealed that IPE are associated with the configuration and formation of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. Along the coast, intense precipitation events are associated with mesoscale systems, such Squall Lines. In Northwest Amazonia IPE are apparently associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone and/or local convection.

Estudo do balanço de umidade por meio de modelos regionais para o clima do passado e do futuro sobre a América do Sul

In the context of climate change over South America (SA) has been observed that the combination of high temperatures and rain more temperatures less rainfall, cause different impacts such as extreme precipitation events, favorable conditions for fires and droughts. As a result, these regions face growing threat of water shortage, local or generalized. Thus, the water availability in Brazil depends largely on the weather and its variations in different time scales. In this sense, the main objective of this research is to study the moisture budget through regional climate models (RCM) from Project Regional Climate Change Assessments for La Plata Basin (CLARIS-LPB) and combine these RCM through two statistical techniques in an attempt to improve prediction on three areas of AS: Amazon (AMZ), Northeast Brazil (NEB) and the Plata Basin (LPB) in past climates (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100). The moisture transport on AS was investigated through the moisture fluxes vertically integrated. The main results showed that the average fluxes of water vapor in the tropics (AMZ and NEB) are higher across the eastern and northern edges, thus indicating that the contributions of the trade winds of the North Atlantic and South are equally important for the entry moisture during the months of JJA and DJF. This configuration was observed in all the models and climates. In comparison climates, it was found that the convergence of the flow of moisture in the past weather was smaller in the future in various regions and seasons. Similarly, the majority of the SPC simulates the future climate, reduced precipitation in tropical regions (AMZ and NEB), and an increase in the LPB region. The second phase of this research was to carry out combination of RCM in more accurately predict precipitation, through the multiple regression techniques for components Main (C.RPC) and convex combination (C.EQM), and then analyze and compare combinations of RCM (ensemble). The results indicated that the combination was better in RPC represent precipitation observed in both climates. Since, in addition to showing values be close to those observed, the technique obtained coefficient of correlation of moderate to strong magnitude in almost every month in different climates and regions, also lower dispersion of data (RMSE). A significant advantage of the combination of methods was the ability to capture extreme events (outliers) for the study regions. In general, it was observed that the wet C.EQM captures more extreme, while C.RPC can capture more extreme dry climates and in the three regions studied.

(Table 1) Age determination of sediment core KY07-04-PC1

Variations in Mg/Ca-based sea surface temperature and oxygen isotope ratio (d18O) of the surface water in the northern East China Sea (ECS) were reconstructed with high resolution during the last 18 kyr using planktic foraminifera. Millennial-scale variations between warmer, more saline surface water and cooler, less saline surface water were recognized during the early deglacial period and the Holocene, suggesting changes in the mixing ratio between the Kuroshio Water and the Changjiang Diluted Water. Stronger East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation events in south China are identified at 10.5, 8.8, 7.0, 5.3, 4.7, 2.9, 1.7, and 0.5 ka, based on sea surface salinity (SSS) records of the northern ECS. Weaker EASM precipitation events are also detected at 9.3, 8.3, 7.3, 6.0, 3.3, 2.3, 0.7, and 0.4 ka during the Holocene. These events agree with the maxima in d18O records of stalagmites from various parts of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River drainage. This agreement supports that our SSS record properly captures the millennial-scale dry (less EASM precipitation) events over the drainage basin of the Changjiang River during the Holocene. These dry events are also in good agreement with North Atlantic ice-rafted events, suggesting a teleconnection between North Atlantic climate and the EASM during the Holocene.

Event layer chronology from Lake Suigetsu (Japan, SG06 Project) for the last 40 kyr

Event layers in lake sediments are indicators of past extreme events, mostly the results of floods or earthquakes. Detailed characterisation of the layers allows the discrimination of the sedimentation processes involved, such as surface runoff, landslides or subaqueous slope failures. These processes can then be interpreted in terms of their triggering mechanisms. Here we present a 40 kyr event layer chronology from Lake Suigetsu, Japan. The event layers were characterised using a multi-proxy approach, employing light microscopy and µXRF for microfacies analysis. The vast majority of event layers in Lake Suigetsu was produced by flood events (362 out of 369), allowing the construction of the first long-term, quantitative (with respect to recurrence) and well dated flood chronology from the region. The flood layer frequency shows a high variability over the last 40 kyr, and it appears that extreme precipitation events were decoupled from the average long-term precipitation. For instance, the flood layer frequency is highest in the Glacial at around 25 kyr BP, at which time Japan was experiencing a generally cold and dry climate. Other cold episodes, such as Heinrich Event 1 or the Late Glacial stadial, show a low flood layer frequency. Both observations together exclude a simple, straightforward relationship with average precipitation and temperature. We argue that, especially during Glacial times, changes in typhoon genesis/typhoon tracks are the most likely control on the flood layer frequency, rather than changes in the monsoon front or snow melts. Spectral analysis of the flood chronology revealed periodic variations on centennial and millennial time scales, with 220 yr, 450 yr and a 2000 yr cyclicity most pronounced. However, the flood layer frequency appears to have not only been influenced by climate changes, but also by changes in erosion rates due to, for instance, earthquakes.

Modelling the effectiveness of grass buffer strips in managing muddy floods under a changing climate

Muddy floods occur when rainfall generates runoff on agricultural land, detaching and transporting sediment into the surrounding natural and built environment. In the Belgian Loess Belt, muddy floods occur regularly and lead to considerable economic costs associated with damage to property and infrastructure. Mitigation measures designed to manage the problem have been tested in a pilot area within Flanders and were found to be cost-effective within three years. This study assesses whether these mitigation measures will remain effective under a changing climate. To test this, the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model was used to examine muddy flooding diagnostics (precipitation, runoff, soil loss and sediment yield) for a case study hillslope in Flanders where grass buffer strips are currently used as a mitigation measure. The model was run for present day conditions and then under 33 future site-specific climate scenarios. These future scenarios were generated from three earth system models driven by four representative concentration pathways and downscaled using quantile mapping and the weather generator CLIGEN. Results reveal that under the majority of future scenarios, muddy flooding diagnostics are projected to increase, mostly as a consequence of large scale precipitation events rather than mean changes. The magnitude of muddy flood events for a given return period is also generally projected to increase. These findings indicate that present day mitigation measures may have a reduced capacity to manage muddy flooding given the changes imposed by a warming climate with an enhanced hydrological cycle. Revisions to the design of existing mitigation measures within existing policy frameworks are considered the most effective way to account for the impacts of climate change in future mitigation planning. 

Abordagem rítmica probabilística aplicada em análises de fluxo e estabilidade de taludes

Tese (doutorado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Tecnologia, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Geotecnia, 2015.

Study of different atmospheric environments associated to storms development in the Madeira Island

The study aims to improve the understanding about different atmospheric environments leading to the development of storms associated with heavy precipitation in Madeira Island. For this purpose, four main goals have been considered: 1) To document the synoptic and mesoscale environments associated with heavy precipitation. 2) To characterize surface precipitation patterns that affected the island during some periods of significant accumulated precipitation using numerical modelling. 3) To study the relationship between surface precipitation patterns and mesoscale environments. 4) To highlight how the PhD findings obtained in the first three goals can be translated into an operational forecast context. Concerning the large scale environment, precipitation over the island was favoured by weather systems (e.g, mesoscale convective systems and low pressure systems), as well as by the meridional transport of high amount of moisture from a structure denominated as “Atmospheric River”. The tropical origin of this moisture is underscored, however, their impact on the precipitation in Madeira was not so high during the 10 winter seasons [2002 – 2012] studied. The main factor triggering heavy precipitation events over the island is related to the local orography. The steep terrain favours orographically-induced stationary precipitation over the highlands, although maximum of precipitation at coastal region may be produced by localized blocking effect. These orographic precipitating systems presented different structures, associated with shallow and deep convection. Essentially, the study shows that the combination of airflow dynamics, moist content, and orography is the major mechanism that produces precipitation over the island. These factors together with the event duration act to define the regions of excessive precipitation. Finally, the study highlights two useful points for the operational sector, regarding the meridional water vapour transport and local effects causing significant precipitation over the Island; RESUMO: O estudo procura melhorar o entendimento sobre os diferentes ambientes atmosféricos que favorecem o desenvolvimento de tempestades associadas com precipitação intensa na ilha da Madeira. Nesse sentido foram definidos quatro objetivos: 1) Documentar os ambientes sinópticos e de mesoescala associados com precipitação intensa; 2) Caracterizar padrões de precipitação na superfície, em eventos de elevada precipitação acumulada, utilizando modelação numérica; 3) Estudar as relações entre os padrões de precipitação e ambientes de mesoescala; 4) Mostrar como tais resultados podem ser utilizados num contexto operacional de previsão do tempo. Em relação a ambientes de larga escala, verificou-se que a ocorrência de eventos de precipitação intensa sobre a ilha foi favorecida por sistemas meteorológicos, assim como pelo transporte meridional de humidade por meio de estruturas atualmente denominadas Rios atmosféricos. Neste último caso é de destacar a origem tropical de humidade, no entanto, o seu impacto na precipitação sobre a Madeira durante os 10 invernos estudados [2002-2012] não foi tão elevada. O principal fator que favorece os eventos de precipitação intensa está relacionado com a orografia local. O terreno complexo da ilha favorece a ocorrência de precipitação estacionária induzida orograficamente sobre as terras mais altas, embora a precipitação nas zonas costeiras possa ser produzida por um efeito localizado de bloqueio. Estes sistemas orográficos precipitantes apresentaram diferentes estruturas, associados a convecção pouco profunda e profunda. O estudo mostra que a combinação entre as características do escoamento, a quantidade de humidade, e a orografia são os condimentos essenciais para o desenvolvimento da precipitação sobre a ilha, atuando de maneira a definir as regiões de precipitação excessiva. Por fim, o estudo destaca dois pontos que podem ser úteis na previsão do tempo operacional, ligados a larga escala e aos efeitos locais, os quais podem levar ao desenvolvimento de tempestades e precipitação intensa sobre a ilha.

Analisi meteorologica di eventi con precipitazione intensa nell'Italia Centrale

In this work we analyze five events of intense precipitation that affected Central Italy between 2011 and 2015. These events caused important flood phenomena, with a significant impact on both the economy and people. This study mainly uses data from ERA5, the latest reanalysis produced by the ECMWF (European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast), in addition to data from the meteorological network managed by Centro Funzionale of Protezione Civile d’Abruzzo. In the first part is reported an overview of the general issues that characterize the study of intense precipitation events, with a deepening of some recently analyzed cases. Subsequently the data and tools used are reported, with a description of the events studied and the method of investigation. We then go to analyze the synoptic framework in which the event developed and to investigate the causes that generated it. Finally, the precipitation pattern was studied and the degree of reproducibility by the ERA5 reanalysis was tested through a comparison with the meteorological network.

SPHERA, a new Italian convection-permitting regional reanalysis: improving heavy-rainfall representation and describing hail-prone environments

Extreme weather events related to deep convection are high-impact critical phenomena whose reliable numerical simulation is still challenging. High-resolution (convection-permitting) modeling setups allow to switch off physical parameterizations accountable for substantial errors in convection representation. A new convection-permitting reanalysis over Italy (SPHERA) has been produced at ARPAE to enhance the representation and understanding of extreme weather situations. SPHERA is obtained through a dynamical downscaling of the global reanalysis ERA5 using the non-hydrostatic model COSMO at 2.2 km grid spacing over 1995-2020. This thesis aims to verify the expectations placed on SPHERA by analyzing two weather phenomena that are particularly challenging to simulate: heavy rainfall and hail. A quantitative statistical analysis over Italy during 2003-2017 for daily and hourly precipitation is presented to compare the performance of SPHERA with its driver ERA5 considering the national network of rain gauges as reference. Furthermore, two extreme precipitation events are deeply investigated. SPHERA shows a quantitative added skill over ERA5 for moderate to severe and rapid accumulations in terms of adherence to the observations, higher detailing of the spatial fields, and more precise temporal matching. These results prompted the use of SPHERA for the investigation of hailstorms, for which the combination of multiple information is crucial to reduce the substantial uncertainties permeating their understanding. A proxy for hail is developed by combining hail-favoring environmental numerical predictors with observations of ESWD hail reports and satellite overshooting top detections. The procedure is applied to the extended summer season (April-October) of 2016-2018 over the whole SPHERA spatial domain. The results indicate maximum hail likelihood over pre-Alpine regions and the northern Adriatic sea around 15 UTC in June-July, in agreement with recent European hail climatologies. The method demonstrates enhanced performance in case of severe hail occurrences and the ability to separate between ambient signatures depending on hail severity.

Data analysis and hydrological modelling of rainfall and discharge extremes along the Tione River: implications for the design of water structures

There are many natural events that can negatively affect the urban ecosystem, but weather-climate variations are certainly among the most significant. The history of settlements has been characterized by extreme events like earthquakes and floods, which repeat themselves at different times, causing extensive damage to the built heritage on a structural and urban scale. Changes in climate also alter various climatic subsystems, changing rainfall regimes and hydrological cycles, increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events (heavy rainfall).  From an hydrological risk perspective, it is crucial to understand future events that could occur and their magnitude in order to design safer infrastructures. Unfortunately, it is not easy to understand future scenarios as the complexity of climate is enormous.  For this thesis, precipitation and discharge extremes were primarily used as data sources. It is important to underline that the two data sets are not separated: changes in rainfall regime, due to climate change, could significantly affect overflows into receiving water bodies. It is imperative that we understand and model climate change effects on water structures to support the development of adaptation strategies.   The main purpose of this thesis is to search for suitable water structures for a road located along the Tione River. Therefore, through the analysis of the area from a hydrological point of view, we aim to guarantee the safety of the infrastructure over time.   The observations made have the purpose to underline how models such as a stochastic one can improve the quality of an analysis for design purposes, and influence choices.