A Nonstationary Negative Binomial Time Series with Time-Dependent Covariates: Enterococcus Counts in Boston Harbor

Boston Harbor has had a history of poor water quality, including contamination by enteric pathogens. We conduct a statistical analysis of data collected by the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority (MWRA) between 1996 and 2002 to evaluate the effects of court-mandated improvements in sewage treatment. Motivated by the ineffectiveness of standard Poisson mixture models and their zero-inflated counterparts, we propose a new negative binomial model for time series of Enterococcus counts in Boston Harbor, where nonstationarity and autocorrelation are modeled using a nonparametric smooth function of time in the predictor. Without further restrictions, this function is not identifiable in the presence of time-dependent covariates; consequently we use a basis orthogonal to the space spanned by the covariates and use penalized quasi-likelihood (PQL) for estimation. We conclude that Enterococcus counts were greatly reduced near the Nut Island Treatment Plant (NITP) outfalls following the transfer of wastewaters from NITP to the Deer Island Treatment Plant (DITP) and that the transfer of wastewaters from Boston Harbor to the offshore diffusers in Massachusetts Bay reduced the Enterococcus counts near the DITP outfalls.

A Diagnostic Test for the Mixing Distribution in a Generalised Linear Mixed Model

We introduce a diagnostic test for the mixing distribution in a generalised linear mixed model. The test is based on the difference between the marginal maximum likelihood and conditional maximum likelihood estimates of a subset of the fixed effects in the model. We derive the asymptotic variance of this difference, and propose a test statistic that has a limiting chi-square distribution under the null hypothesis that the mixing distribution is correctly specified. For the important special case of the logistic regression model with random intercepts, we evaluate via simulation the power of the test in finite samples under several alternative distributional forms for the mixing distribution. We illustrate the method by applying it to data from a clinical trial investigating the effects of hormonal contraceptives in women.

Multilevel Latent Class Models with Dirichlet Mixing Distribution

Latent class analysis (LCA) and latent class regression (LCR) are widely used for modeling multivariate categorical outcomes in social sciences and biomedical studies. Standard analyses assume data of different respondents to be mutually independent, excluding application of the methods to familial and other designs in which participants are clustered. In this paper, we develop multilevel latent class model, in which subpopulation mixing probabilities are treated as random effects that vary among clusters according to a common Dirichlet distribution. We apply the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for model fitting by maximum likelihood (ML). This approach works well, but is computationally intensive when either the number of classes or the cluster size is large. We propose a maximum pairwise likelihood (MPL) approach via a modified EM algorithm for this case. We also show that a simple latent class analysis, combined with robust standard errors, provides another consistent, robust, but less efficient inferential procedure. Simulation studies suggest that the three methods work well in finite samples, and that the MPL estimates often enjoy comparable precision as the ML estimates. We apply our methods to the analysis of comorbid symptoms in the Obsessive Compulsive Disorder study. Our models' random effects structure has more straightforward interpretation than those of competing methods, thus should usefully augment tools available for latent class analysis of multilevel data.

Orthotopic Ileal Bladder Substitution in Women: Factors Influencing Urinary Incontinence and Hypercontinence.

BACKGROUND Urinary incontinence or the inability to void spontaneously after ileal orthotopic bladder substitution is a frequent finding in female patients. OBJECTIVE To evaluate how hysterectomy and nerve sparing affect functional outcomes and whether these relate to pre- and postoperative urethral pressure profile (UPP) results. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Prospectively performed pre- and postoperative UPPs of 73 female patients who had undergone cystectomy and bladder substitution were correlated with postoperative voiding and continence status. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS Outcome analyses were performed with the Kruskal-Wallis test, Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney, or two-group post hoc testing with the Bonferroni correction. Chi-square or Fisher exact tests were applied for the categorical data. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS Of postoperatively continent or hypercontinent patients, 22 of 43 (51.2%) had the uterus preserved; of incontinent patients, only 4 of 30 (13.3%, p<0.01) had the uterus preserved. Of postoperatively continent or hypercontinent patients, 27 of 43 patients (62.8%) had bilateral and 15 of 43 (34.9%) had unilateral attempted nerve sparing. In incontinent patients, 11 of 30 (36.7%) had bilateral and 16 of 30 (53.3%) had unilateral attempted nerve sparing (p=0.02). When compared with postoperatively incontinent patients, postoperatively continent patients had a longer functional urethral length (median: 32mm vs 24mm; p<0.001), a higher postoperative urethral closing pressure at rest (56cm H2O vs 35cm H2O; p<0.001) as well as a higher preoperative urethral closing pressure at rest (74cm H2O vs 47.5cm H2O; p=0.01). The main limitation was the limited number of patients. CONCLUSIONS In female patients undergoing radical cystectomy and bladder substitution, preservation of the uterus and attempted nerve sparing results in better functional outcomes. The preoperative UPPs correlate with postoperative voiding and continence status and may predict which patients are at a higher risk of functional failure after bladder substitution. PATIENT SUMMARY If preservation of the urethra's innervation is not possible during cystectomy, poor functional results with bladder substitutes are likely.

STUDY OF THE EFFECTS OF TOTAL MODULATION TRANSFER FUNCTION CHANGES ON OBSERVER PERFORMANCE USING CLINICAL MAMMOGRAMS

The main goal of this study was to relate physical changes in image quality measured by Modulation Transfer Function (MTF) to diagnostic accuracy.^ One Hundred and Fifty Kodak Min-R screen/film combination conventional craniocaudal mammograms obtained with the Pfizer Microfocus Mammographic system were selected from the files of the Department of Radiology, at M.D. Anderson Hospital and Tumor Institute.^ The mammograms included 88 cases with a variety of benign diagnosis and 62 cases with a variety of malignant biopsy diagnosis. The average age of the patient population was 55 years old. 70 cases presented calcifications with 30 cases having calcifications smaller than 0.5mm. 46 cases presented irregular bordered masses larger than 1 cm. 30 cases presented smooth bordered masses with 20 larger than 1 cm.^ Four separated copies of the original images were made each having a different change in the MTF using a defocusing technique whereby copies of the original were obtained by light exposure through different thicknesses (spacing) of transparent film base.^ The mammograms were randomized, and evaluated by three experienced mammographers for the degree of visibility of various anatomical breast structures and pathological lesions (masses and calicifications), subjective image quality, and mammographic interpretation.^ 3,000 separate evaluations were anayzed by several statistical techniques including Receiver Operating Characteristic curve analysis, McNemar test for differences between proportions and the Landis et al. method of agreement weighted kappa for ordinal categorical data.^ Results from the statistical analysis show: (1) There were no statistical significant differences in the diagnostic accuracy of the observers when diagnosing from mammograms with the same MTF. (2) There were no statistically significant differences in diagnostic accuracy for each observer when diagnosing from mammograms with the different MTF's used in the study. (3) There statistical significant differences in detail visibility between the copies and the originals. Detail visibility was better in the originals. (4) Feature interpretations were not significantly different between the originals and the copies. (5) Perception of image quality did not affect image interpretation.^ Continuation and improvement of this research ca be accomplished by: using a case population more sensitive to MTF changes, i.e., asymptomatic women with minimum breast cancer, more observers (including less experienced radiologists and experienced technologists) must collaborate in the study, and using a minimum of 200 benign and 200 malignant cases.^

A systematic review of economic evaluations for interventions of cardiovascular diseases

Background. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) exhibits the most striking public health significance due to its high prevalence and mortality as well as huge economic burdens all over the world, especially in industrialized countries. Major risk factors of CVDs have been the targets of population-wide prevention in the United States. Economic evaluations provide structured information in regard to the efficiency of resource utilization which can inform decisions of resource allocation. The main purpose of this review is to investigate the pattern of study design of economic evaluations for interventions of CVDs. ^ Methods. Primary journal articles published during 2003-2008 were systematically retrieved via relevant keywords from Medline, NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED) and EBSCO Academic Search Complete. Only full economic evaluations for narrowly defined CVD interventions were included for this review. The methodological data of interest were extracted from the eligible articles and reorganized in Microsoft Access database. Chi-square tests in SPSS were used to analyze the associations between pairs of categorical data. ^ Results. One hundred and twenty eligible articles were reviewed after two steps of literature selection with explicit inclusion and exclusion criteria. Descriptive statistics were reported regarding the evaluated interventions, outcome measures, unit costing and cost reports. The chi-square test of the association between prevention level of intervention and category of time horizon showed no statistical significance. The chi-square test showed that sponsor type was significantly associated with whether new or standard intervention being concluded as more cost effective. ^ Conclusions. Tertiary prevention and medication interventions are the major interests for economic evaluators. The majority of the evaluations were claimed from either a provider’s or a payer’s perspective. Almost all evaluations adopted gross costing strategy for unit cost data rather than micro costing. EQ-5D is the most commonly used instrument for subjective outcome measurement. More than half of the evaluations used decision analytic modeling techniques. The lack of consistency in study design standards in published evaluations appears in several aspects. Prevention level of intervention is not likely to be a factor for evaluators to decide whether to design an evaluation in a lifetime horizon or not. Published evaluations sponsored by industry are more likely to conclude that new intervention is more cost effective than standard intervention.^

Evaluación sensorial de mermeladas de tomate de color no tradicional

Nuevas cultivares de tomate, de colores distintos al tradicional rojo, se adaptan a la elaboración de productos alternativos, como las confituras. Se estudió la aceptabilidad por parte del consumidor de mermeladas elaboradas con las variedades Victoria FCA, Don Armando FCA y Santa Rosa FCA. Sus frutos: amarillos, anaranjados y rojos, respectivamente, fueron caracterizados por color, peso, acidez: titulable y potencial, y sólidos solubles. Las mermeladas, aromatizadas con clavo de olor, se elaboraron en una planta experimental hasta concentración 67-69 % de sólidos solubles. Un panel de 39 consumidores -clasificados en menores y mayores de 30 años- evaluó aspecto, color, aroma, textura y sabor, aplicando escalas no estructuradas. Las evaluaciones de ambos grupos fueron distintas. Para todas las características sensoriales la prueba de Friedman indicó diferencias entre los tres productos (a = 0,001). En una escala para cinco categorías, más del 50 % de los jueces consideraron las tres mermeladas en las categorías más altas: me gusta y me gusta mucho. El análisis de los datos categóricos de preferencia otorgó el primer lugar a la variedad roja, seguida por la anaranjada y la amarilla. Podría existir un segmento de consumidores interesados en el desarrollo de confituras de tomate amarillo, pero en el caso específico de la mermelada, tuvo mayor aceptabilidad el producto de color igual o parecido al tradicional.

Genome scan for teratogen-induced clefting susceptibility loci in the mouse: Evidence of both allelic and locus heterogeneity distinguishing cleft lip and cleft palate

Nonsyndromic clefting of the lip and palate in humans has a highly complex etiology, with both multiple genetic loci and exposure to teratogens influencing susceptibility. Previous studies using mouse models have examined only very small portions of the genome. Here we report the findings of a genome-wide search for susceptibility genes for teratogen-induced clefting in the AXB and BXA set of recombinant inbred mouse strains. We compare results obtained using phenytoin (which induces cleft lip) and 6-aminonicotinamide (which induces cleft palate). We use a new statistical approach based on logistic regression suitable for these categorical data to identify several chromosomal regions as possible locations of clefting susceptibility loci, and we review candidate genes located within each region. Because cleft lip and cleft palate do not frequently co-aggregate in human families and because these structures arise semi-independently during development, these disorders are usually considered to be distinct in etiology. Our data, however, implicate several of the same chromosomal regions for both forms of clefting when teratogen-induced. Furthermore, different parental strain alleles are usually associated with clefting of the lip versus that of the palate (i.e., allelic heterogeneity). Because several other chromosomal regions are associated with only one form of clefting, locus heterogeneity also appears to be involved. Our findings in this mouse model suggest several priority areas for evaluation in human epidemiological studies.

Sample size determination in combinatorial chemistry.

Combinatorial chemistry is gaining wide appeal as a technique for generating molecular diversity. Among the many combinatorial protocols, the split/recombine method is quite popular and particularly efficient at generating large libraries of compounds. In this process, polymer beads are equally divided into a series of pools and each pool is treated with a unique fragment; then the beads are recombined, mixed to uniformity, and redivided equally into a new series of pools for the subsequent couplings. The deviation from the ideal equimolar distribution of the final products is assessed by a special overall relative error, which is shown to be related to the Pearson statistic. Although the split/recombine sampling scheme is quite different from those used in analysis of categorical data, the Pearson statistic is shown to still follow a chi2 distribution. This result allows us to derive the required number of beads such that, with 99% confidence, the overall relative error is controlled to be less than a pregiven tolerable limit L1. In this paper, we also discuss another criterion, which determines the required number of beads so that, with 99% confidence, all individual relative errors are controlled to be less than a pregiven tolerable limit L2 (0 < L2 < 1).