The Price of Oil and Soviet/Russian Aggressiveness. CEPS Commentary, 16 January 2015

A decade-long period of a steadily rising oil prices (and that of other raw materials) has given Russia a feeling of strength, bordering on invulnerability, which has made the country more assertive, and ready to use any opportunity to deploy its military power. Based on his analysis of Russian behaviour over the past 50 years, Daniel Gros finds that the abrupt reversal of this trend since the summer of 2014 portends a much less aggressive Russian stance as long as the price of oil remains at present levels.

Preservation of Indian oil sardine (Sardinella longiceps) in iced and chilled seawater. Part 2 - Changes during storage with particular reference to salt penetration and lipid deterioration during CSW holding

Oil sardines in prime condition were chilled on board. Two lots were chilled in CSW (samples C & CI), one lot ice (sample I) and a fourth lot was left un-iced on deck (sample AI). Sample AI was iced after landing and sample CI was taken out of the chilled seawater and. iced. All the four samples were kept in a chilled room for storage studies. Sample C, chilled and stored in CSW, recorded a gradual gain in weight and an increase in salt content of the muscle. Presence of salt did not seem to cause any excessive protein denaturation. Salt extractability decreased at a gradual rate in all cases. Presence of salt seemed to wield no noticeable influence on lipid hydrolysis and subsequent peroxidation. Results of chemical and sensory evaluations highlight this. Holding sardines in CSW gave a product of excellent quality for the first four to five days of storage. Beyond the fifth day of storage quality deteriorated rapidly and there was no noticeable superiority for this sample (sample C) over the on board iced fish. This was evident in the sensory evaluation as well. However, a storage life of five days in a readily acceptable state is sufficient for the fish to be disposed in the market at a premium sale price over other landings of the same species.

An analysis of implied volatility jump dynamics: Novel functional data representation in crude oil markets

The predominant fear in capital markets is that of a price spike. Commodity markets differ in that there is a fear of both upward and down jumps, this results in implied volatility curves displaying distinct shapes when compared to equity markets. The use of a novel functional data analysis (FDA) approach, provides a framework to produce and interpret functional objects that characterise the underlying dynamics of oil future options. We use the FDA framework to examine implied volatility, jump risk, and pricing dynamics within crude oil markets. Examining a WTI crude oil sample for the 2007–2013 period, which includes the global financial crisis and the Arab Spring, strong evidence is found of converse jump dynamics during periods of demand and supply side weakness. This is used as a basis for an FDA-derived Merton (1976) jump diffusion optimised delta hedging strategy, which exhibits superior portfolio management results over traditional methods.

Synthesis of new vegetable oil-based polymeric materials

A crescente procura de recursos fosseis a que se tem assistido nos ultimos anos, tem resultado num crescimento sem precedentes dos precos, com consequencias imprevisiveis e que levara, no espaco de decadas, ao seu inevitavel esgotamento. A procura de um modelo de desenvolvimento sustentavel, baseado em recursos renovaveis e o grande desafio que se coloca a civilizacao no seculo XXI. A biomassa vegetal, atraves das designadas gBio-refinarias h, e uma alternativa logica para a producao de produtos quimicos e de materiais mas tambem de combustiveis e energia. Os oleos vegetais constituem uma das fracoes da biomassa vegetal, cuja exploracao tem merecido redobrada atencao nos ultimos anos, como fonte de materiais e de combustiveis. Assim, a presente dissertacao tem por objetivo o desenvolvimento de novos materiais polimericos derivados de oleos vegetais, seguindo duas abordagens distintas, nomeadamente a preparacao de polimeros atraves de polimerizacao por etapas e polimerizacao em cadeia (Parte B e C, respetivamente). Em primeiro lugar, foram sintetizados poliesteres alifaticos de cadeia longa a partir de monomeros provenientes do oleo de colza (Capitulo III). A auto-metatese do acido erucico com catalisadores de rutenio, seguida de hidrogenacao da ligacao dupla, originou o acido 1,26-hexacosanodioico, que por sua vez foi convertido em hexacosano-1,26-diol. Subsequentemente, a policondensacao do acido ƒ¿,ƒÖ-dicarboxilico de cadeia longa com o hexacosano-1,26-diol originou o poliester 26,26. O diacido C26 foi tambem polimerizado com outros alcano-diois de cadeia curta, nomeadamente o dodecano-1,12-diol e o butano-1,2-diol, produzindo, respetivamente, os poliesteres 12,26 e 4,26. Estes poliesteres de fontes 100% renovaveis possuem valores de Mn na ordem dos 8-14 kDa e valores de PDI entre 2.1 e 2.7. As propriedades destes poliesteres alifaticos foram avaliadas atraves de varias tecnicas, revelando elevada cristalinidade (com uma estrutura cristalina como a do polietileno) e elevadas temperaturas de fusao (74-104 ‹C), cristalizacao (68-92 ‹C) e degradacao (323-386 ‹C). Em segundo lugar, foram sintetizados polimeros lineares termo-reversiveis a partir de derivados do oleo de ricinio (Capitulo IV). Para tal foram preparados monomeros que incorporam aneis furanicos inseridos atraves do acoplamento tiol-eno, e que posteriormente foram polimerizados pela reacao de Diels-Alder (DA) entre os grupos furano (dieno A) e estruturas complementares do tipo maleimida (dienofilo B). Para as polimerizacoes DA foram consideradas duas abordagens diferentes, nomeadamente (i) o uso de monomeros com dois aneis furanicos terminais em conjunto com uma bismaleimida (sistemas AA+BB) e (ii) a utilizacao de um monomero que incorpora ambos os grupos reativos, furano e maleimida, na sua estrutura (sistema AB). Este estudo demonstrou claramente que ambas as estratégias foram bem sucedidas embora com diferentes resultados em termos da natureza dos produtos obtidos. Estes polímeros lineares apresentam valores relativamente baixos de Tg (-40 to -2 °C) devido à natureza flexível dos grupos separadores das funções reativas, e de Mn (4.5-9.0 kDa) dada a observada tendência de ciclização associada a concentrações baixas de monómero. A aplicação da reação de retro-DA aos polímeros em causa confirmou o seu caráter reversível, ou seja, a possibilidade de promover, em condições controladas, a despolimerização com recuperação dos monómeros de partida. Esta particularidade abre caminhos para materiais macromoleculares originais com aplicações promissoras tais como auto-reparação e reciclabilidade. Em terceiro lugar, sintetizaram-se polímeros não-lineares termo-reversíveis a partir de derivados do óleo de ricínio (Capítulo V). Para tal foram preparados monómeros trifuncionais e posteriormente polimerizados através da reação de DA entre os grupos reativos complementares furano/maleimida. Foram consideradas três abordagens distintas para preparar estes polímeros não-lineares, nomeadamente através da utilização de (i) um monómero bisfurânico em combinação com uma trismaleimida (sistema A2+B3) e (ii) um monómero trisfurânico em conjunto com uma bismaleimida (sistema A3+B2) que originaram materiais ramificados ou reticulados, e ainda (iii) a utilização de monómeros assimetricamente substituídos do tipo A2B ou AB2 capazes de originar estruturas macromoleculares hiper-ramificadas. Todos os sistemas apresentaram valores de Tg perto de 0 °C, o que era de esperar para estes materiais não-lineares. A aplicação da reação de retro-DA comprovou mais uma vez o caráter termo-reversível das polimerizações em causa. Em quarto lugar e último lugar, foram preparados copolímeros de acetato de vinilo (VAc) com monómeros derivados de óleo de girassol (Capítulo VI). Ésteres vinílicos de ácidos gordos (FAVE) foram sintetizados por transvinilação dos ácidos oleico e linoleico com VAc catalisada por um complexo de irídio. Os monómeros vinílicos preparados foram caracterizados e posteriormente homopolimerizados e copolimerizados com VAc através do uso dos grupos vinílicos terminais como função inicial de polimerização. A variação do tipo e quantidade de monómero FAVE e da quantidade de iniciador radicalar originou copolímeros de VAc com valores de Mn na gama de 1.2-3.0 kDa e valores de Tg de -5 a 16 °C. Os copolímeros foram avaliados em testes de cura oxidativa através das insaturações nas suas cadeias alifáticas para formar materiais reticulados, e os resultados sugerem que eles podem ser sistemas efetivos de cura para aplicações como tintas, vernizes e outros tipos de revestimento. Todos os materiais poliméricos preparados ao longo deste trabalho constituem contribuições atrativas para a área dos polímeros oriundos de recursos renováveis e representam uma prova indiscutível de que os óleos vegetais são percursores promissores de materiais macromoleculares com potenciais aplicações.

The Alberta Dilemma: Optimal Sharing of a Water Resource by an Agricultural and an Oil Sector

The purpose of this paper is to characterize the optimal time paths of production and water usage by an agricultural and an oil sector that have to share a limited water resource. We show that for any given water stock, if the oil stock is sufficiently large, it will become optimal to have a phase during which the agricultural sector is inactive. This may mean having an initial phase during which the two sectors are active, then a phase during which the water is reserved for the oil sector and the agricultural sector is inactive, followed by a phase during which both sectors are active again. The agricultural sector will always be active in the end as the oil stock is depleted and the demand for water from the oil sector decreases. In the case where agriculture is not constrained by the given natural inflow of water once there is no more oil, we show that oil extraction will always end with a phase during which oil production follows a pure Hotelling path, with the implicit price of oil net of extraction cost growing at the rate of interest. If the natural inflow of water does constitute a constraint for agriculture, then oil production never follows a pure Hotelling path, because its full marginal cost must always reflect not only the imputed rent on the finite oil stock, but also the positive opportunity cost of water.

Domestic policy responses to the food price crisis: The case of Bolivia

In face of the global food crisis of 2007-2008, severe concerns arose about how developing countries would be affected by the extreme short-term fluctuations in international commodity prices. We examine the effects of the crisis on Bolivia, one of the poorest countries of the Americas. We focus on the effectiveness of the domestic policy interventions in preventing spillovers of the development of international food prices to domestic markets. Using a cointegration model, we study price interdependencies of wheat flour, sunflower oil and poultry. The analysis suggests that the policy measures taken had little effect on food security during the food crisis. Throughout the entire period, perfect price transmission between the Bolivian poultry and sunflower oil markets and the respective international reference markets existed. Bolivian prices were determined by international prices and the policy interventions in the markets of these two commodities were not found to have had an effect. The government's large-scale wheat flour imports did not shield Bolivian consumers from the shocks of international prices.

Energy saving innovations, non-exhaustible sources of energy and long-run: what would happen if we run out of oil?

We formulate and solve a model of factor saving technological improvement considering three factors of production: labor, capital and energy. The productive activities have three main characteristics: first, in order to use capital goods firms need energy; second, there are two sources of energy: non-exhaustible and exhaustible; third, capital goods can be of different qualities and the quality of these goods can be changed along two dimensions -reducing the need of energy or changing the source of energy used in the production process. The economy goes through three stages of development after industrialization. In the first, firms make use of exhaustible energy and the e¢ ciency in the use of energy is constant. In the second stage, as the price of energy grows the e¢ ciency in its use is increased. In the third stage, the price of exhaustible sources is so high that firms have incentives to use non-exhaustible sources of energy. During this stage the price of energy is constant. In this set up, the end of the oil age has level effects on consumption and output but it does not cause the collapse of the economic system.