Assimilation impacts on Arctic Ocean circulation, heat and freshwater

We investigate the Arctic basin circulation, freshwater content (FWC) and heat budget by using a high-resolution global coupled ice–ocean model implemented with a state-of-the-art data assimilation scheme. We demonstrate that, despite a very sparse dataset, by assimilating hydrographic data in and near the Arctic basin, the initial warm bias and drift in the control run is successfully corrected, reproducing a much more realistic vertical and horizontal structure to the cyclonic boundary current carrying the Atlantic Water (AW) along the Siberian shelves in the reanalysis run. The Beaufort Gyre structure and FWC and variability are also more accurately reproduced. Small but important changes in the strait exchange flows are found which lead to more balanced budgets in the reanalysis run. Assimilation fluxes dominate the basin budgets over the first 10 years (P1: 1987–1996) of the reanalysis for both heat and FWC, after which the drifting Arctic upper water properties have been restored to realistic values. For the later period (P2: 1997–2004), the Arctic heat budget is almost balanced without assimilation contributions, while the freshwater budget shows reduced assimilation contributions compensating largely for surface salinity damping, which was extremely strong in this run. A downward trend in freshwater export at the Canadian Straits and Fram Strait is found in period P2, associated with Beaufort Gyre recharge. A detailed comparison with observations and previous model studies at the individual Arctic straits is also included.

Localization of deep water formation: role of atmospheric moisture transport and geometrical constraints on ocean circulation

A series of coupled atmosphere–ocean–ice aquaplanet experiments is described in which topological constraints on ocean circulation are introduced to study the role of ocean circulation on the mean climate of the coupled system. It is imagined that the earth is completely covered by an ocean of uniform depth except for the presence or absence of narrow barriers that extend from the bottom of the ocean to the sea surface. The following four configurations are described: Aqua (no land), Ridge (one barrier extends from pole to pole), Drake (one barrier extends from the North Pole to 35°S), and DDrake (two such barriers are set 90° apart and join at the North Pole, separating the ocean into a large basin and a small basin, connected to the south). On moving from Aqua to Ridge to Drake to DDrake, the energy transports in the equilibrium solutions become increasingly “realistic,” culminating in DDrake, which has an uncanny resemblance to the present climate. Remarkably, the zonal-average climates of Drake and DDrake are strikingly similar, exhibiting almost identical heat and freshwater transports, and meridional overturning circulations. However, Drake and DDrake differ dramatically in their regional climates. The small and large basins of DDrake exhibit distinctive Atlantic-like and Pacific-like characteristics, respectively: the small basin is warmer, saltier, and denser at the surface than the large basin, and is the main site of deep water formation with a deep overturning circulation and strong northward ocean heat transport. A sensitivity experiment with DDrake demonstrates that the salinity contrast between the two basins, and hence the localization of deep convection, results from a deficit of precipitation, rather than an excess of evaporation, over the small basin. It is argued that the width of the small basin relative to the zonal fetch of atmospheric precipitation is the key to understanding this salinity contrast. Finally, it is argued that many gross features of the present climate are consequences of two topological asymmetries that have profound effects on ocean circulation: a meridional asymmetry (circumpolar flow in the Southern Hemisphere; blocked flow in the Northern Hemisphere) and a zonal asymmetry (a small basin and a large basin).

Quantifying the roles of ocean circulation and biogeochemistry in governing ocean carbon-13 and atmospheric carbon dioxide at the last glacial maximum

We use a state-of-the-art ocean general circulation and biogeochemistry model to examine the impact of changes in ocean circulation and biogeochemistry in governing the change in ocean carbon-13 and atmospheric CO2 at the last glacial maximum (LGM). We examine 5 different realisations of the ocean's overturning circulation produced by a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean model under LGM forcing and suggested changes in the atmospheric deposition of iron and phytoplankton physiology at the LGM. Measured changes in carbon-13 and carbon-14, as well as a qualitative reconstruction of the change in ocean carbon export are used to evaluate the results. Overall, we find that while a reduction in ocean ventilation at the LGM is necessary to reproduce carbon-13 and carbon-14 observations, this circulation results in a low net sink for atmospheric CO2. In contrast, while biogeochemical processes contribute little to carbon isotopes, we propose that most of the change in atmospheric CO2 was due to such factors. However, the lesser role for circulation means that when all plausible factors are accounted for, most of the necessary CO2 change remains to be explained. This presents a serious challenge to our understanding of the mechanisms behind changes in the global carbon cycle during the geologic past.

Decadal predictions of the cooling and freshening of the North Atlantic in the 1960s and the role of ocean circulation

In the 1960s North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST) cooled rapidly. The magnitude of the cooling was largest in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG), and was coincident with a rapid freshening of the SPG. Here we analyze hindcasts of the 1960s North Atlantic cooling made with the UK Met Office’s decadal prediction system (DePreSys), which is initialised using observations. It is shown that DePreSys captures—with a lead time of several years—the observed cooling and freshening of the North Atlantic SPG. DePreSys also captures changes in SST over the wider North Atlantic and surface climate impacts over the wider region, such as changes in atmospheric circulation in winter and sea ice extent. We show that initialisation of an anomalously weak Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and hence weak northward heat transport, is crucial for DePreSys to predict the magnitude of the observed cooling. Such an anomalously weak AMOC is not captured when ocean observations are not assimilated (i.e. it is not a forced response in this model). The freshening of the SPG is also dominated by ocean salt transport changes in DePreSys; in particular, the simulation of advective freshwater anomalies analogous to the Great Salinity Anomaly were key. Therefore, DePreSys suggests that ocean dynamics played an important role in the cooling of the North Atlantic in the 1960s, and that this event was predictable.

Formulation and implementation of a residual-mean ocean circulation model

A parameterization of mesoscale eddies in coarse-resolution ocean general circulation models (GCM) is formulated and implemented using a residual-mean formalism. In that framework, mean buoyancy is advected by the residual velocity (the sum of the Eulerian and eddy-induced velocities) and modified by a residual flux which accounts for the diabatic effects of mesoscale eddies. The residual velocity is obtained by stepping forward a residual-mean momentum equation in which eddy stresses appear as forcing terms. Study of the spatial distribution of eddy stresses, derived by using them as control parameters to ‘‘fit’’ the residual-mean model to observations, supports the idea that eddy stresses can be likened to a vertical down-gradient flux of momentum with a coefficient which is constant in the vertical. The residual eddy flux is set to zero in the ocean interior, where mesoscale eddies are assumed to be quasi-adiabatic, but is parameterized by a horizontal down-gradient diffusivity near the surface where eddies develop a diabatic component as they stir properties horizontally across steep isopycnals. The residual-mean model is implemented and tested in the MIT general circulation model. It is shown that the resulting model (1) has a climatology that is superior to that obtained using the Gent and McWilliams parameterization scheme with a spatially uniform diffusivity and (2) allows one to significantly reduce the (spurious) horizontal viscosity used in coarse resolution GCMs.

Reassortant highly pathogenic influenza a H5N2 virus containing gene segments related to eurasian H5N8 in British Columbia, Canada, 2014

In late November 2014 higher than normal death losses in a meat turkey and chicken broiler breeder farm in the Fraser Valley of British Columbia initiated a diagnostic investigation that led to the discovery of a novel reassortant highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N2 virus. This virus, composed of 5 gene segments (PB2, PA, HA, M and NS) related to Eurasian HPAI H5N8 and the remaining gene segments (PB1, NP and NA) related to North American lineage waterfowl viruses, represents the first HPAI outbreak in North American poultry due to a virus with Eurasian lineage genes. Since its first appearance in Korea in January 2014, HPAI H5N8 spread to Western Europe in November 2014. These European outbreaks happened to temporally coincide with migratory waterfowl movements. The fact that the British Columbia outbreaks also occurred at a time associated with increased migratory waterfowl activity along with reports by the USA of a wholly Eurasian H5N8 virus detected in wild birds in Washington State, strongly suggest that migratory waterfowl were responsible for bringing Eurasian H5N8 to North America where it subsequently reassorted with indigenous viruses.

The Pathologic Copepod Phrixocephalus cincinnatus (Copepoda: Pennellidae) in the Eye of Arrowtooth Flounder, Atherestes stomias, and Rex Sole, Glyptocephalus zachirus, from British Columbia

We report Phrixocephalus cincinnatus, a pennellid copepod infecting the eyes of flatfishes, from a single specimen of rex sole, Glyptocephalus zachirus, for the first time. In the typical host, the arrowtooth flounder, Atherestes stomias, the parasite occurred commonly in sampled populations from the Broughton Archipelago in British Columbia, infected primarily the right eye of the flounder, and on only one occasion presented more than two parasites per eye. The copepod attached to the choroid layer and ramified throughout the posterior compartment of the eye, resulting in the disruption of the retina and probably impairing host vision. Inflammation and hyperplasia progressed to necrosis and proliferation of connective tissue, resulting in the total destruction of the eye.

WOLF CONTROL IN BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA

Up to 1949, the Fish and Game Branch employed personnel, some of whom were temporary, to attempt control of the extremely high wolf pop¬ulations of the central and northern portions of British Columbia. Coyotes were also very numerous in the central and southern regions and had to be considered because of their depredations. The field men were keen and conscientious but their efforts were not co-ordinated. Control areas were severely restricted in size as techniques were not adaptable enough and because of a lack of manpower. Eventually, sheepmen went out of business entirely over wide areas, cattlemen were subjected to huge annual losses, and sportsmen were very concerned. However, stock losses constituted the major complaint and resulted in ranchers demanding action* Two major changes came out of this. First, the bounty on wolves was raised and second, the present Predator Control Division was formed. The administration was convinced that a force of experienced, fully-trained field staff under a single supervision would be far more effective than bounty payments. Unfortunately, bounties were in vogue during that time and forced the necessity of proving the worth of organized controls before any consideration could be given to the elimination of the bounty system.

Fingerprints of changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle in response to large reorganizations in ocean circulation

CO2 and carbon cycle changes in the land, ocean and atmosphere are investigated using the comprehensive carbon cycle-climate model NCAR CSM1.4-carbon. Ensemble simulations are forced with freshwater perturbations applied at the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean deep water formation sites under pre-industrial climate conditions. As a result, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation reduces in each experiment to varying degrees. The physical climate fields show changes qualitatively in agreement with results documented in the literature, but there is a clear distinction between northern and southern perturbations. Changes in the physical variables, in turn, affect the land and ocean biogeochemical cycles and cause a reduction, or an increase, in the atmospheric CO2 concentration by up to 20 ppmv, depending on the location of the perturbation. In the case of a North Atlantic perturbation, the land biosphere reacts with a strong reduction in carbon stocks in some tropical locations and in high northern latitudes. In contrast, land carbon stocks tend to increase in response to a southern perturbation. The ocean is generally a sink of carbon although large reorganizations occur throughout various basins. The response of the land biosphere is strongest in the tropical regions due to a shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The carbon fingerprints of this shift, either to the south or to the north depending on where the freshwater is applied, can be found most clearly in South America. For this reason, a compilation of various paleoclimate proxy records of Younger Dryas precipitation changes are compared with our model results. The proxy records, in general, show good agreement with the model's response to a North Atlantic freshwater perturbation.

Bloodstream infections in pediatric ECLS: usefulness of daily blood culture monitoring and predictive value of biological markers. The British Columbia experience

INTRODUCTION: The incidence of bloodstream infection (BSI) in extracorporeal life support (ECLS) is reported between 0.9 and 19.5%. In January 2006, the Extracorporeal Life Support Organization (ELSO) reported an overall incidence of 8.78% distributed as follows: respiratory: 6.5% (neonatal), 20.8% (pediatric); cardiac: 8.2% (neonatal) and 12.6% (pediatric). METHOD: At BC Children's Hospital (BCCH) daily surveillance blood cultures (BC) are performed and antibiotic prophylaxis is not routinely recommended. Positive BC (BC+) were reviewed, including resistance profiles, collection time of BC+, time to positivity and mortality. White blood cell count, absolute neutrophile count, immature/total ratio, platelet count, fibrinogen and lactate were analyzed 48, 24 and 0 h prior to BSI. A univariate linear regression analysis was performed. RESULTS: From 1999 to 2005, 89 patients underwent ECLS. After exclusion, 84 patients were reviewed. The attack rate was 22.6% (19 BSI) and 13.1% after exclusion of coagulase-negative staphylococci (n = 8). BSI patients were significantly longer on ECLS (157 h) compared to the no-BSI group (127 h, 95% CI: 106-148). Six BSI patients died on ECLS (35%; 4 congenital diaphragmatic hernias, 1 hypoplastic left heart syndrome and 1 after a tetralogy repair). BCCH survival on ECLS was 71 and 58% at discharge, which is comparable to previous reports. No patient died primarily because of BSI. No BSI predictor was identified, although lactate may show a decreasing trend before BSI (P = 0.102). CONCLUSION: Compared with ELSO, the studied BSI incidence was higher with a comparable mortality. We speculate that our BSI rate is explained by underreporting of "contaminants" in the literature, the use of broad-spectrum antibiotic prophylaxis and a higher yield with daily monitoring BC. We support daily surveillance blood cultures as an alternative to antibiotic prophylaxis in the management of patients on ECLS.