The impacts of the Cape Verde self-employed social security scheme

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Behavioural assessment impacts on the performance results

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Brain-computer interface (BCI): a methodological proposal to assess the impacts of medical applications in 2022

Based on the report for “Project IV” unit of the PhD programme on Technology Assessment (Doctoral Conference) at Universidade Nova de Lisboa (December 2011). This thesis research has the supervision of António Moniz (FCT-UNL and ITAS-KIT) and Armin Grunwald (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology-ITAS, Germany). Other members of the thesis committee are Mário Forjaz Secca (FCT-UNL) and Femke Nijboer (University of Twente, Netherlands).

Macroeconomic impacts of politics and policy: Applications to financial and real markets

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution and conservation of endemic forest land snails of Madeira Island

Climate change is emerging as one of the major threats to natural communities of the world’s ecosystems; and biodiversity hotspots, such as Madeira Island, might face a challenging future in the conservation of endangered land snails’ species. With this thesis, progresses have been made in order to properly understand the impact of climate on these vulnerable taxa; and species distribution models coupled with GIS and climate change scenarios have become crucial to understand the relations between species distribution and environmental conditions, identifying threats and determining biodiversity vulnerability. With the use of MaxEnt, important changes in the species suitable areas were obtained. Laurel forest species, highly dependent on precipitation and relative humidity, may face major losses on their future suitable areas, leading to the possible extinction of several endangered species, such as Leiostyla heterodon. Despite the complexity of the biological systems, the intrinsic uncertainty of species distribution models and the lack of information about land snails’ functional traits, this analysis contributed to a pioneer study on the impacts of climate change on endemic species of Madeira Island. The future inclusion of predictions of the effect of climate change on species distribution as part of IUCN assessments could contribute to species prioritizing, promoting specific management actions and maximizing conservation investment.

Do the psychological impacts of war cause poverty?: Evidence from Mozambique

This paper evaluates the extent to which war-related psychological distress causes poverty. The endogeneous nature of mental distress is addressed by using exposure to the civil war in Mozambique as an instrument. It is found that exposure to war has a significant and positive long-lasting impact on mental distress. Furthermore, the causal impact of war-related psychological distress on income and wealth is shown to be significant, negative, and nonnegligible. One standard deviation increase in mental distress decreases income by half a standard deviation. These findings are robust to alternative specifications, including the use of an alternative database on the incidence of PTSD in Mozambique.

Basel III new capital requirements, impacts and bank behavior

For some years, researchers could not find a clear effect of capital adequacy on the risk profile of banks, as shareholders could increase the riskiness of the assets (qualitative effect), crowding-out the effect of reduced leverage (volume effect). Some shareholders might have the will to increase the riskiness of the assets, but they may lack the power to do so. Considering only ”powerful” shareholders, definitive conclusions were drawn but with constant ownership profile. In this paper I investigate whether there is a significant change in the type of shareholders in response to regulatory capital shocks and, if so, will the banking system be in the hands of more “desired” shareholders. I find that ownership profile responds to a regulatory shock, changing the risk appetite of the ruling power at the bank. I find more banks and the government in the ownership of undercapitalised banks and much less institutional shareholders and free float. I claim that these new shareholders may not the desired ones, given the objective of the regulatory change, as they are associated with a preference for more leverage. One possible explanation for this crowding-out effect is that regulators are trying to contain idiosyncratic risk (more linked to the riskiness of the assets) with a rule that contains systematic risk (capital adequacy). This has a distorting effect on ownership. Another insight can be drawn from the tests: supervisors should be aware of significant ownership movements that cause the crowding-out.

A wave of change: Labor market and social security impacts of the EU refugee inflow

The recent massive inflow of refugees to the European Union (EU) raises a number of unanswered questions on the economic impact of this phenomenon. To examine these questions, we constructed an overlapping-generations model that describes the evolution of the skill premium and of the welfare benefit level in relevant European countries, in the aftermath of an inflow of asylum-seekers. In our simulation, relative wages of skilled workers increase between 8% and 11% in the period of the inflow; their subsequent time path is dependent on the initial skill premium. The entry of migrants creates a fiscal surplus of about 8%, which can finance higher welfare benefits in the subsequent periods. These effects are weaker in a scenario where refugees do not fully integrate into the labor market.

Electromagnetic fields and environmental noise: human health impacts in Serzedelo, Guimarães (Portugal)

The present paper investigates the risks that arise from exposure to noise from powerpoles and powerlines in Serzedelo, in the municipality of Guimarães, in Portugal. This research focused on four guiding questions: Can powerlines cause noise? Do powerlines cause discomfort? Do powerlines cause discomfort due to noise? And can powerlines effect human health? Two groups were the basis of the study: people that were exposed to electromagnetic waves and people that were not. the research pointed to the harmful influence of the presence of powerlines and high-voltage masts in residential areas and the damage to the cells in the human body. This type of environmental noise, which has the spectral content of a low frequency, typically tonal noise and a very high speed of propagation, is a complex source to explain in terms of the health profiles of the human population living in Serzedelo, located in an area that is densely occupied by high voltage powerlines and powerpole.

Using stated preference methods to assess environmental impacts of forest biomass power plants in Portugal

As a renewable energy source, the use of forest biomass for electricity generation is advantageous in comparison with fossil fuels, however the activity of forest biomass power plants causes adverse impacts, affecting particularly neighbouring communities. The main objective of this study is to estimate the effects of the activity of forest biomass power plants on the welfare of two groups of stakeholders, namely local residents and the general population and we apply two stated preference methods: contingent valuation and discrete choice experiments, respectively. The former method was applied to estimate the minimum compensation residents of neighbouring communities of two forest biomass power plants in Portugal would be willing to accept. The latter method was applied among the general population to estimate their willingness to pay to avoid specific environmental impacts. The results show that the presence of the selected facilities affects individuals’ well-being. On the other hand, in the discrete choice experiments conducted among the general population all impacts considered were significant determinants of respondents’ welfare levels. The results of this study stress the importance of performing an equity analysis of the welfare effects on different groups of stakeholders from the installation of forest biomass power plants, as their effects on welfare are location and impact specific. Policy makers should take into account the views of all stakeholders either directly or indirectly involved when deciding crucial issues regarding the sitting of new forest biomass power plants, in order to achieve an efficient and equitable outcome.

Lightweight adjustable partition system: evaluation of resistance to horizontal loads and functional failure from impacts

This paper presents and discusses the results of the serviciability and use condition tests carried on an innovative solution for partitions, designated AdjustMembrane developed within a research project. The proposed system is a modular non-loadbearing wall, tensioned between the pavements and ceiling slabs, which are used as anchoring elements. It allows several advantages, related with the weight reduction to achieve a good sustainable performance, such as the reduction of construction costs, energy, and materials, and it is easy to recycle and to reuse, allowing self-construction. Apart from a general presentation of the partition technology, this paper presents and discusses the results of experimental tests carried out. From the results obtained, it is possible to conclude that the solution fulfils the requirements for this typology of wall in terms of resistance to horizontal loads induced by soft and hard body impacts.

Attachment style impacts behavior and early oculomotor response to positive, but not negative, pictures

The present study investigated whether oculomotor behavior is influenced by attachment styles. The Relationship Scales Questionnaire was used to assess attachment styles of forty-eight voluntary university students and to classify them into attachment groups (secure, preoccupied, fearful, and dismissing). Eye-tracking was recorded while participants engaged in a 3-seconds free visual exploration of stimuli presenting either a positive or a negative picture together with a neutral picture, all depicting social interactions. The task consisted in identifying whether the two pictures depicted the same emotion. Results showed that the processing of negative pictures was impermeable to attachment style, while the processing of positive pictures was significantly influenced by individual differences in insecure attachment. The groups highly avoidant regarding to attachment (dismissing and fearful) showed reduced accuracy, suggesting a higher threshold for recognizing positive emotions compared to the secure group. The groups with higher attachment anxiety (preoccupied and fearful) showed differences in automatic capture of attention, in particular an increased delay preceding the first fixation to a picture of positive emotional valence. Despite lenient statistical thresholds induced by the limited sample size of some groups (p < 0.05 uncorrected for multiple comparisons), the current findings suggest that the processing of positive emotions is affected by attachment styles. These results are discussed within a broader evolutionary framework.

Global warming in Amazonia: impacts and Mitigation

Global warming has potentially catastrophic impacts in Amazonia, while at the same time maintenance of the Amazon forest offers one of the most valuable and cost-effective options for mitigating climate change. We know that the El Niño phenomenon, caused by temperature oscillations of surface water in the Pacific, has serious impacts in Amazonia, causing droughts and forest fires (as in 1997-1998). Temperature oscillations in the Atlantic also provoke severe droughts (as in 2005). We also know that Amazonian trees die both from fires and from water stress under hot, dry conditions. In addition, water recycled through the forest provides rainfall that maintains climatic conditions appropriate for tropical forest, especially in the dry season. What we need to know quickly, through intensified research, includes progress in representing El Niño and the Atlantic oscillations in climatic models, representation of biotic feedbacks in models used for decision-making about global warming, and narrowing the range of estimating climate sensitivity to reduce uncertainty about the probability of very severe impacts. Items that need to be negotiated include the definition of "dangerous" climate change, with the corresponding maximum levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Mitigation of global warming must include maintaining the Amazon forest, which has benefits for combating global warming from two separate roles: cutting the flow the emissions of carbon each year from the rapid pace of deforestation, and avoiding emission of the stock of carbon in the remaining forest that can be released by various ways, including climate change itself. Barriers to rewarding forest maintenance include the need for financial rewards for both of these roles. Other needs are for continued reduction of uncertainty regarding emissions and deforestation processes, as well as agreement on the basis of carbon accounting. As one of the countries most subject to impacts of climate change, Brazil must assume the leadership in fighting global warming.

Effects of anthropogenic impacts on benthic macroinvertebrates assemblages in subtropical mountain streams

The nature of the riparian and surrounding landscape has been modified by anthropogenic activities, which may subsequently alter the composition and functional structure of macroinvertebrate assemblages. The effect of these changes on function of benthic fauna is difficult to assess due to the scarce knowledge on functional structures in tropical streams. In this study we evaluate whether sites impacted and unimpacted by anthropogenic alterations differed in assemblage composition and density, richness and diversity of each functional feeding group. The selection of the sites was related to their distinct riparian characteristics, following the QBRy riparian quality index. Collector-gatherer was the dominant functional feeding group, comprising 91% of total density, whereas the proportion of shredders was very low, representing less of 0.5% of total density. Asemblage composition of macroinvertebrates differed between impacted and unimpacted sites. Predators were dominant in taxa number, representing about 60% of total taxa richness. In addition, the diversity and richness of collector-gatherers differed significantly between degraded and unimpacted sites, reflecting the sensitivity of this group to environmental changes and the utility to be used in the assessment of anthropogenic modifications. The results of this study reinforce the idea that riparian corridor management is critical for the distribution of macroinvertebrate assemblages as well as functional organization of lotic streams.

Ecological and Economic Impacts within the Environmental Input-Output Framework

The environmental input-output approach reveals the channels through which the environmental burdens of production activities are transmitted throughout the economy. This paper uses the input-output framework and analyses the changes in Spanish emission multipliers during the period 1995-2000. By decomposing the global changes in multipliers into different components, it is possible to evaluate separately the economic and ecological impacts captured by the environmental input-output model. Specifically, in this study we distinguish between the effects on multipliers caused by changes in emission coefficients (the ecological impacts) and the effects on multipliers caused by changes in technical coefficients (the economic impacts). Our results show a significant improvement in the ecological impacts of production activities, which contributed negatively to changes in emission multipliers. They also show a deterioration in the economic impacts, which contributed positively to changes in emission multipliers. Together, these two effects lead to a small reduction in global multipliers during the period of analysis. Our results also show significant differences in the individual behaviour of different sectors in terms of their contribution to multiplier changes. Since there are considerable differences in the way individual sectors affect the changes in emission levels, and in the intensity of these effects, this means that the final effects will basically depend on the activity considered. Keywords: emission multipliers, multipliers' changes, ecological impacts, economic impacts.