Maternal age at birth and childhood type 1 diabetes: a pooled analysis of 30 observational studies

OBJECTIVE - The aim if the study was to investigate whether children born to older mothers have an increased risk of type 1 diabetes by performing a pooled analysis of previous studies using individual patient data to adjust for recognized confounders.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - Relevant studies published before June 2009 were identified from MEDLINE, Web of Science, and EMBASE. Authors of studies were contacted and asked to provide individual patient data or conduct prespecified analyses. Risk estimates of type 1 diabetes by maternal age were calculated for each study, before and after adjustment for potential confounders. Meta-analysis techniques were used to derive combined odds ratios and to investigate heterogeneity among studies.
RESULTS - Data were available for 5 cohort and 25 case-control studies, including 14,724 cases of type 1 diabetes. Overall, there was, on average, a 5% (95% CI 2-9) increase in childhood type 1 diabetes odds per 5-year increase in maternal age (P = 0.006), but there was heterogeneity among studies (heterogeneity I 2 = 70%). In studies with a low risk of bias, there was a more marked increase in diabetes odds of 10% per 5-year increase in maternal age. Adjustments for potential confounders little altered these estimates. CONCLUSIONS - There was evidence of a weak but significant linear increase in the risk of childhood type 1 diabetes across the range of maternal ages, but the magnitude of association varied between studies. A very small percentage of the increase in the incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes in recent years could be explained by increases in maternal age.

Caesarean section is associated with an increased risk of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes: A meta-analysis of observational studies

Aims/hypothesis: The aim of this study was to investigate the evidence of an increased risk of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes in children born by Caesarean section by systematically reviewing the published literature and performing a meta-analysis with adjustment for recognised confounders.
Methods: After MEDLINE, Web of Science and EMBASE searches, crude ORs and 95% CIs for type 1 diabetes in children born by Caesarean section were calculated from the data reported in each study. Authors were contacted to facilitate adjustments for potential confounders, either by supplying raw data or calculating adjusted estimates. Meta-analysis techniques were then used to derive combined ORs and to investigate heterogeneity between studies.
Results: Twenty studies were identified. Overall, there was a significant increase in the risk of type 1 diabetes in children born by Caesarean section (OR 1.23, 95% CI 1.15-1.32, p<0.001). There was little evidence of heterogeneity between studies (p=0.54). Seventeen authors provided raw data or adjusted estimates to facilitate adjustments for potential confounders. In these studies, there was evidence of an increase in diabetes risk with greater birthweight, shorter gestation and greater maternal age. The increased risk of type 1 diabetes after Caesarean section was little altered after adjustment for gestational age, birth weight, maternal age, birth order, breast-feeding and maternal diabetes (adjusted OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.04-1.36, p=0.01).
Conclusions/interpretation: This analysis demonstrates a 20% increase in the risk of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes after Caesarean section delivery that cannot be explained by known confounders.

Birth order and childhood type 1 diabetes risk: A pooled analysis of 31 observational studies

Background: The incidence rates of childhood onset type 1 diabetes are almost universally increasing across the globe but the aetiology of the disease remains largely unknown. We investigated whether birth order is associated with the risk of childhood diabetes by performing a pooled analysis of previous studies. Methods: Relevant studies published before January 2010 were identified from MEDLINE, Web of Science and EMBASE. Authors of studies provided individual patient data or conducted pre-specified analyses. Meta-analysis techniques were used to derive combined odds ratios (ORs), before and after adjustment for confounders, and investigate heterogeneity. Results: Data were available for 6 cohort and 25 case-control studies, including 11 955 cases of type 1 diabetes. Overall, there was no evidence of an association prior to adjustment for confounders. After adjustment for maternal age at birth and other confounders, a reduction in the risk of diabetes in second-or later born children became apparent [fully adjusted OR=0.90 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.83-0.98; P=0.02] but this association varied markedly between studies (I 2=67%). An a priori subgroup analysis showed that the association was stronger and more consistent in children <5years of age (n=25 studies, maternal age adjusted OR=0.84 95% CI 0.75, 0.93; I 2=23%). Conclusion: Although the association varied between studies, there was some evidence of a lower risk of childhood onset type 1 diabetes with increasing birth order, particularly in children aged <5 years. This finding could reflect increased exposure to infections in early life in later born children. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association © The Author 2010; all rights reserved.

Observational and Dynamical Characterization of Main-belt Comet P/2010 R2 (La Sagra)

We present observations of the recently discovered comet-like main-belt object P/2010 R2 (La Sagra) obtained by Pan-STARRS1 and the Faulkes Telescope-North on Haleakala in Hawaii, the University of Hawaii 2.2 m, Gemini-North, and Keck I telescopes on Mauna Kea, the Danish 1.54 m telescope (operated by the MiNDSTEp consortium) at La Silla, and the Isaac Newton Telescope on La Palma. An antisolar dust tail is observed to be present from 2010 August through 2011 February, while a dust trail aligned with the object's orbit plane is also observed from 2010 December through 2011 August. Assuming typical phase darkening behavior, P/La Sagra is seen to increase in brightness by >1 mag between 2010 August and December, suggesting that dust production is ongoing over this period. These results strongly suggest that the observed activity is cometary in nature (i.e., driven by the sublimation of volatile material), and that P/La Sagra is therefore the most recent main-belt comet to be discovered. We find an approximate absolute magnitude for the nucleus of HR = 17.9 ± 0.2 mag, corresponding to a nucleus radius of ~0.7 km, assuming an albedo of p = 0.05. Comparing the observed scattering surface areas of the dust coma to that of the nucleus when P/La Sagra was active, we find dust-to-nucleus area ratios of Ad /AN = 30-60, comparable to those computed for fellow main-belt comets 238P/Read and P/2008 R1 (Garradd), and one to two orders of magnitude larger than for two other main-belt comets (133P/Elst-Pizarro and 176P/LINEAR). Using optical spectroscopy to search for CN emission, we do not detect any conclusive evidence of sublimation products (i.e., gas emission), finding an upper limit CN production rate of Q CN 100 Myr, suggesting that it is likely native to its current location and that its composition is likely representative of other objects in the same region of the main belt, though the relatively close proximity of the 13:6 mean-motion resonance with Jupiter and the (3,-2,-1) three-body mean-motion resonance with Jupiter and Saturn mean that dynamical instability on larger timescales cannot be ruled out.

Associations between maternal characteristics and pregnancy-related stress among low-risk mothers: An observational cross-sectional study

Background: Pregnancy is viewed as a major life event and, while the majority of healthy, low-risk women adapt well to pregnancy, there are those whose levels of stress are heightened by the experience.

Objectives: To determine the level of pregnancy-related stress experienced by a group of healthy, low-risk pregnant women and to relate the level of stress with a number of maternal characteristics.

Design: An observational cross-sectional study.

Setting: A large, urban maternity centre in Northern Ireland.

Participants: Of the 306 pregnant women who were invited to participate, 278 provided informed consent and were administered one self-complete questionnaire. Due to the withdrawal criteria, 15 questionnaires were removed from the analysis, resulting in a final sample of 263 healthy, low-risk pregnant women.

Methods: Levels of stress were measured using a self-report measure designed to assess specific worries and concerns relating to pregnancy. Maternal characteristics collected included age, marital status, social status, parity, obstetric history, perceived health status and 'wantedness' for the pregnancy. Regression analysis was undertaken using an ordinary linear regression model.

Results: The mean prenatal distress score in the sample was 15.1 (SD = 7.4; range 0-46). The regression model showed that women who had had previous pregnancies, with or without complications, had significantly lower mean prenatal distress scores than primiparous women (p < 0.01). Women reporting poorer physical health had higher mean prenatal distress scores than those who reported at least average health, while women aged 16-20 experienced a mean increase in the reported prenatal distress score (p < 0.05) in comparison to the reference group of 36 years and over.

Conclusions: This study brings to light the prevalence of pregnancy-related stress within a sample representative of healthy, low-risk women. Current antenatal care is ill-equipped to identify women suffering from high levels of stress; yet a growing body of research evidence links stress with adverse pregnancy outcomes. This study emphasises that healthy, low-risk women experience a range of pregnancy-related stress and identification of stress levels, either through the use of a simple stress measurement tool or through the associated factors identified within this research study, provides valuable data on maternal well-being. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ellerman Bombs - Evidence for Magnetic Reconnection in the Lower Solar Atmosphere

The presence of photospheric magnetic reconnection has long been thought to give rise to short and impulsive events, such as Ellerman bombs (EBs) and Type II spicules. In this article, we combine high-resolution, high-cadence observations from the Interferometric BIdimensional Spectrometer and Rapid Oscillations in the Solar Atmosphere instruments at the Dunn Solar Telescope, National Solar Observatory, New Mexico, with co-aligned Solar Dynamics Observatory Atmospheric Imaging Assembly and Hinode Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) data to observe small-scale events situated within an active region. These data are then compared with state-of-the-art numerical simulations of the lower atmosphere made using the MURaM code. It is found that brightenings, in both the observations and the simulations, of the wings of the Hα line profile, interpreted as EBs, are often spatially correlated with increases in the intensity of the Fe I λ6302.5 line core. Bipolar regions inferred from Hinode/SOT magnetic field data show evidence of flux cancellation associated, co-spatially, with these EBs, suggesting that magnetic reconnection could be a driver of these high-energy events. Through the analysis of similar events in the simulated lower atmosphere, we are able to infer that line profiles analogous to the observations occur co-spatially with regions of strong opposite-polarity magnetic flux. These observed events and their simulated counterparts are interpreted as evidence of photospheric magnetic reconnection at scales observable using current observational instrumentation.

Session 4: CVD, diabetes and cancer - Evidence for the use of the Mediterranean diet in patients with CHD

Diet is associated with the development of CHD. The incidence of CHD is lower in southern European countries than in northern European countries and it has been proposed that this difference may be a result of diet. The traditional Mediterranean diet emphasises a high intake of fruits, vegetables, bread, other forms of cereals, potatoes, beans, nuts and seeds. It includes olive oil as a major fat source and dairy products, fish and poultry are consumed in low to moderate amounts. Many observational studies have shown that the Mediterranean diet is associated with reduced risk of CHD, and this result has been confirmed by meta-analysis, while a single randomised controlled trial, the Lyon Diet Heart study, has shown a reduction in CHD risk in subjects following the Mediterranean diet in the secondary prevention setting. However, it is uncertain whether the benefits of the Mediterranean diet are transferable to other non-Mediterranean populations and whether the effects of the Mediterranean diet will still be feasible in light of the changes in pharmacological therapy seen in patients with CHD since the Lyon Diet Heart study was conducted. Further randomised controlled trials are required and if the risk-reducing effect is confirmed then the best methods to effectively deliver this public health message worldwide need to be considered.

The struggle for safe staffing levels in the USA: A political economy of evidence-based practice

This paper examines the debate over nursing staff to patient ratios through the lens of Marxist political economy, arguing that the owners and controllers of healthcare in the USA have a vested interest in opposing mandated minimum ratios, while those involved in carrying out nursing care have a vested interest in their implementation, which coincides with the interests of patients. We examine how evidence-based practice articulates with social power, and proceed to interrogate the research methods used to generate evidence for practice, noting that randomised controlled trials are not suitable for evaluating nurse/patient ratios, which means that observational studies are the primary source of evidence. Representatives of nursing managers have used the fact that observational studies, while demonstrating an association between high ratios and poor outcomes, have not established a causal relationship, to support their argument that there is not sufficient evidence for the imposition of mandatory ratios. We argue that the precautionary principle provides firm justification for mandatory ratios, unless and until a causal relationship has been disproved. We conclude that those involved in the generation of evidence have to choose between technical arguments about the inferiority of observational studies, or emphasising their sufficiency in triggering the precautionary principle.

Genetic Evidence for a Causal Role of Obesity in Diabetic Kidney Disease

Obesity has been posited as an independent risk factor for diabetic kidney disease (DKD), but establishing causality from observational data is problematic. We aimed to test whether obesity is causally related to DKD using Mendelian randomization, which exploits the random assortment of genes during meiosis. In 6,049 subjects with type 1 diabetes, we used a weighted genetic risk score (GRS) comprised of 32 validated BMI loci as an instrument to test the relationship of BMI with macroalbuminuria, end-stage renal disease (ESRD), or DKD defined as presence of macroalbuminuria or ESRD. We compared these results with cross-sectional and longitudinal observational associations. Longitudinal analysis demonstrated a U-shaped relationship of BMI with development of macroalbuminuria, ESRD, or DKD over time. Cross-sectional observational analysis showed no association with overall DKD, higher odds of macroalbuminuria (for every 1 kg/m(2) higher BMI, odds ratio [OR] 1.05, 95% CI 1.03-1.07, P < 0.001), and lower odds of ESRD (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.93-0.97, P < 0.001). Mendelian randomization analysis showed a 1 kg/m(2) higher BMI conferring an increased risk in macroalbuminuria (OR 1.28, 95% CI 1.11-1.45, P = 0.001), ESRD (OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.20-1.72, P < 0.001), and DKD (OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.17-1.51, P < 0.001). Our results provide genetic evidence for a causal link between obesity and DKD in type 1 diabetes. As obesity prevalence rises, this finding predicts an increase in DKD prevalence unless intervention should occur.

Vaccinations and childhood type 1 diabetes mellitus: a meta-analysis of observational studies

Aims/hypothesis The aim of this study was to investigate the association between routine vaccinations and the risk of childhood type 1 diabetes mellitus by systematically reviewing the published literature and performing meta-analyses where possible.

Methods A comprehensive literature search was performed of MEDLINE and EMBASE to identify all studies that compared vaccination rates in children who subsequently developed type 1 diabetes mellitus and in control children. ORs and 95% CIs were obtained from published reports or derived from individual patient data and then combined using a random effects meta-analysis.

Results In total, 23 studies investigating 16 vaccinations met the inclusion criteria. Eleven of these contributed to meta-analyses which included data from between 359 and 11,828 childhood diabetes cases. Overall, there was no evidence to suggest an association between any of the childhood vaccinations investigated and type 1 diabetes mellitus. The pooled ORs ranged from 0.58 (95% CI 0.24, 1.40) for the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccination in five studies up to 1.04 (95% CI 0.94, 1.14) for the haemophilus influenza B (HiB) vaccination in 11 studies. Significant heterogeneity was present in most of the pooled analyses, but was markedly reduced when analyses were restricted to study reports with high methodology quality scores. Neither this restriction by quality nor the original authors’ adjustments for potential confounding made a substantial difference to the pooled ORs.

Conclusions/interpretation This study provides no evidence of an association between routine vaccinations and childhood type 1 diabetes.

Convectively coupled equatorial waves: A new methodology for identifying wave structures in observational data

Convectively coupled equatorial waves are fundamental components of the interaction between the physics and dynamics of the tropical atmosphere. A new methodology, which isolates individual equatorial wave modes, has been developed and applied to observational data. The methodology assumes that the horizontal structures given by equatorial wave theory can be used to project upper- and lower-tropospheric data onto equatorial wave modes. The dynamical fields are first separated into eastward- and westward-moving components with a specified domain of frequency–zonal wavenumber. Each of the components for each field is then projected onto the different equatorial modes using the y structures of these modes given by the theory. The latitudinal scale yo of the modes is predetermined by data to fit the equatorial trapping in a suitable latitude belt y = ±Y. The extent to which the different dynamical fields are consistent with one another in their depiction of each equatorial wave structure determines the confidence in the reality of that structure. Comparison of the analyzed modes with the eastward- and westward-moving components in the convection field enables the identification of the dynamical structure and nature of convectively coupled equatorial waves. In a case study, the methodology is applied to two independent data sources, ECMWF Reanalysis and satellite-observed window brightness temperature (Tb) data for the summer of 1992. Various convectively coupled equatorial Kelvin, mixed Rossby–gravity, and Rossby waves have been detected. The results indicate a robust consistency between the two independent data sources. Different vertical structures for different wave modes and a significant Doppler shifting effect of the background zonal winds on wave structures are found and discussed. It is found that in addition to low-level convergence, anomalous fluxes induced by strong equatorial zonal winds associated with equatorial waves are important for inducing equatorial convection. There is evidence that equatorial convection associated with Rossby waves leads to a change in structure involving a horizontal structure similar to that of a Kelvin wave moving westward with it. The vertical structure may also be radically changed. The analysis method should make a very powerful diagnostic tool for investigating convectively coupled equatorial waves and the interaction of equatorial dynamics and physics in the real atmosphere. The results from application of the analysis method for a reanalysis dataset should provide a benchmark against which model studies can be compared.

Evidence for interplay between genes and parenting on infant temperament in the first year of life: monoamine oxidase A polymorphism moderates effects of maternal sensitivity on infant anger proneness

Background The low expression polymorphism of the MAOA gene in interaction with adverse environments (G × E) is associated with antisocial behaviour disorders. These have their origins in early life, but it is not known whether MAOA G × E occurs in infants. We therefore examined whether MAOA G × E predicts infant anger proneness, a temperamental dimension associated with later antisocial behaviour disorders. In contrast to previous studies, we examined MAOA G × E prospectively using an observational measure of a key aspect of the infant environment, maternal sensitivity, at a specified developmental time point. Methods In a stratified epidemiological cohort recruited during pregnancy, we ascertained MAOA status (low vs. high expression alleles) from the saliva of 193 infants, and examined specific predictions to maternal report of infant temperament at 14 months from maternal sensitivity assessed at 29 weeks of age. Results Analyses, weighted to provide general population estimates, indicated a robust interaction between MAOA status and maternal sensitivity in the prediction of infant anger proneness (p = .003) which became stronger once possible confounders for maternal sensitivity were included in the model (p = .0001). The interaction terms were similar in males (p = .010) and females (p = .016), but the effects were different as a consequence of an additional sex of infant by maternal sensitivity interaction. Conclusions This prospective study provides the first evidence of moderation by the MAOA gene of effects of parenting on infant anger proneness, an important early risk for the development of disruptive and aggressive behaviour disorders.

On the observability of turbulent transport rates by Argo: supporting evidence from an inversion experiment

Although estimation of turbulent transport parameters using inverse methods is not new, there is little evaluation of the method in the literature. Here, it is shown that extended observation of the broad scale hydrography by Argo provides a path to improved estimates of regional turbulent transport rates. Results from a 20 year ocean state estimate produced with the ECCO v4 non-linear inverse modeling framework provide supporting evidence. Turbulent transport parameter maps are estimated under the constraints of fitting the extensive collection of Argo profiles collected through 2011. The adjusted parameters dramatically reduce misfits to in situ profiles as compared with earlier ECCO solutions. They also yield a clear reduction in the model drift away from observations over multi-century long simulations, both for assimilated variables (temperature and salinity) and independent variables (bio-geochemical tracers). Despite the minimal constraints imposed specifically on the estimated parameters, their geography is physically plausible and exhibits close connections with the upper ocean ocean stratification as observed by Argo. The estimated parameter adjustments furthermore have first order impacts on upper-ocean stratification and mixed layer depths over 20 years. These results identify the constraint of fitting Argo profiles as an effective observational basis for regional turbulent transport rates. Uncertainties and further improvements of the method are discussed.

Usual clinical practice for early supported discharge after stroke with continued rehabilitation at home : an observational comparative study

Introduction: Based on randomised controlled trials, evidence exists that early supported discharge (ESD) from the hospital with continued rehabilitation at home has beneficial effects after stroke; however, the effects of ESD service in regular clinical practice have not been investigated. The purpose of the current study was to compare ESD service with conventional rehabilitation in terms of patient outcomes, caregiver burden at 3 and 12 months and the use and costs of healthcare during the first year after stroke. Material and methods: This study was a subgroup analysis of a longitudinal observational study of patients who received care in the stroke unit at Karolinska University Hospital in Sweden. Patients who met the inclusion criteria for ESD in previous experimental studies were included. The patients were referred to available rehabilitation services at discharge, and comparisons between those who received ESD service (the ESD group, n = 40) and those who received conventional rehabilitation (the NoESD group, n = 110) were performed with regard to independence in activities of daily living (ADL), the frequency of social activities, life satisfaction, and caregiver burden and the use and costs of healthcare during the first year after stroke. Results: At 3 and 12 months, no differences were observed with regard to patient outcomes; however, ESD was associated with a lower caregiver burden (p = 0.01) at 12 months. The initial length of stay (LOS) at the hospital was 8 days for the ESD group and 15 days for the NoESD group (p = 0.02). The median number of outpatient rehabilitation contacts was 20.5 for the ESD group (81% constituting ESD service) and 3 for the NoESD group (p<0.001). There was no difference between the groups with regard to overall healthcare costs. Conclusions: ESD service in usual clinical practice renders similar health benefits as conventional rehabilitation but a different pattern of resource use and with released capacity in acute stroke care.

Observational study on efficacy of negative expiratory pressure test proposed as screening for obstructive sleep apnea syndrome among commercial interstate bus drivers - protocol study

Background: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a respiratory disease characterized by the collapse of the extrathoracic airway and has important social implications related to accidents and cardiovascular risk. The main objective of the present study was to investigate whether the drop in expiratory flow and the volume expired in 0.2 s during the application of negative expiratory pressure (NEP) are associated with the presence and severity of OSA in a population of professional interstate bus drivers who travel medium and long distances.Methods/Design: An observational, analytic study will be carried out involving adult male subjects of an interstate bus company. Those who agree to participate will undergo a detailed patient history, physical examination involving determination of blood pressure, anthropometric data, circumference measurements (hips, waist and neck), tonsils and Mallampati index. Moreover, specific questionnaires addressing sleep apnea and excessive daytime sleepiness will be administered. Data acquisition will be completely anonymous. Following the medical examination, the participants will perform a spirometry, NEP test and standard overnight polysomnography. The NEP test is performed through the administration of negative pressure at the mouth during expiration. This is a practical test performed while awake and requires little cooperation from the subject. In the absence of expiratory flow limitation, the increase in the pressure gradient between the alveoli and open upper airway caused by NEP results in an increase in expiratory flow.Discussion: Despite the abundance of scientific evidence, OSA is still underdiagnosed in the general population. In addition, diagnostic procedures are expensive, and predictive criteria are still unsatisfactory. Because increased upper airway collapsibility is one of the main determinants of OSA, the response to the application of NEP could be a predictor of this disorder. With the enrollment of this study protocol, the expectation is to encounter predictive NEP values for different degrees of OSA in order to contribute toward an early diagnosis of this condition and reduce its impact and complications among commercial interstate bus drivers.