Vulnerability of coastal ecosystems to changes in harmful algal bloom distribution in response to climate change: projections based on model analysis

Harmful algal blooms (HABs), those proliferations of algae that can cause fish kills, contaminate seafood with toxins, form unsightly scums, or detrimentally alter ecosystem function have been increasing in frequency, magnitude, and duration worldwide. Here, using a global modeling approach, we show, for three regions of the globe, the potential effects of nutrient loading and climate change for two HAB genera, pelagic Prorocentrum and Karenia, each with differing physiological characteristics for growth. The projections (end of century, 2090-2100) are based on climate change resulting from the A1B scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Climate Model (IPCC, IPSL-CM4), applied in a coupled oceanographic-biogeochemical model, combined with a suite of assumed physiological 'rules' for genera-specific bloom development. Based on these models, an expansion in area and/or number of months annually conducive to development of these HABs along the NW European Shelf-Baltic Sea system and NE Asia was projected for both HAB genera, but no expansion (Prorocentrum spp.), or actual contraction in area and months conducive for blooms (Karenia spp.), was projected in the SE Asian domain. The implications of these projections, especially for Northern Europe, are shifts in vulnerability of coastal systems to HAB events, increased regional HAB impacts to aquaculture, increased risks to human health and ecosystems, and economic consequences of these events due to losses to fisheries and ecosystem services.

Places making: participatory construction of scientifi c culture cities

In the framework of the European project Platform of Local Authorities and Communicators Engaged in Science (PLACES), we analyse the articulations between scientifi c communication, public perception of science, processes of citizen participation and apropiation of space, based on a case study of the inhabitants of Teruel city, Autonomous Community of Aragon, Spain. On the interrelationships between these issues, there are a number of contradictions, such as the difference between a high interest for information about science and technology and a low level of recognition and interaction with local institutions involved in those activities, the complex conceptualization of scientifi c space in relation to the “public-private” pair, or an articulation of a claiming civic rethoric and an insuffi cient co-responsibility. We conclude that, in a local context, the dimension of territoriality and, in particular, the identifi cation with the town, is a central mediation for activating citizen participation as part of processes of appropriation of space for setting up cities of scientifi c culture.

Patterns of variation at a mitochondrial sequence-tagged-site locus provides new insights into the postglacial history of European Pinus sylvestris populations

Due to their maternal mode of inheritance, mitochondrial markers can be regarded as almost 'ideal' tools in evolutionary studies of conifer populations. In the present study, polymorphism was analysed at one mitochondrial intron (nad 1, exon B/C) in 23 native European Pinus sylvestris populations. In a preliminary screening for variation using a polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism approach, two length variants were identified. By fully sequencing the 2.5 kb region, the observed length polymorphism was found to result from the insertion of a 31 bp sequence, with no other mutations observed within the intron. A set of primers was designed flanking the observed mutation, which identified a novel sequence-tagged-site mitochondrial marker for P. sylvestris. Analysis of 747 trees from the 23 populations using these primers revealed the occurrence of two distinct haplotypes in Europe. Within the Iberian Peninsula, the two haplotypes exhibited extensive population differentiation (Phi(ST) = 0.59; P less than or equal to 0.001) and a marked geographical structuring. In the populations of central and northern Europe, one haplotype largely predominated, with the second being found in only one individual of one population.

Distribution, extent of inter-annual variability and diet of the bloom-forming jellyfish Rhizostoma in European waters

Jellyfish (Cnidaria: Scyphozoa) are increasingly thought to play a number of important ecosystem roles, but often fundamental knowledge of their distribution, seasonality and inter-annual variability is lacking. Bloom forming species, due to their high densities, can have particularly intense trophic and socio-economic impacts. In northern Europe it is known that one particularly large (up to 30 kg wet weight) bloom forming jellyfish is Rhizostoma spp. Given the potential importance, we set out to review all known records from peer-reviewed and broader public literature of the jellyfish R. octopus (Linnaeus) and R. pulmo (Macri) (Scyphozoa: Rhizostomae) across western Europe. These data revealed distinct hotspots where regular Rhizostoma spp. aggregations appeared to form, with other sites characterized by occasional abundances and a widespread distribution of infrequent observations. Surveys of known R. octopus hotspots around the Irish Sea also revealed marked inter-annual variation with particularly high abundances forming during 2003. The location of such consistent aggregations and inter-annual variances are discussed in relation to physical, climatic and dietary variations.

Estimating the Density of Honeybee Colonies across Their Natural Range to Fill the Gap in Pollinator Decline Censuses

Although pollinator declines are a global biodiversity threat, the demography of the western honeybee (Apis mellifera) has not been considered by conservationists because it is biased by the activity of beekeepers. To fill this gap in pollinator decline censuses and to provide a broad picture of the current status of honeybees across their natural range, we used microsatellite genetic markers to estimate colony densities and genetic diversity at different locations in Europe, Africa, and central Asia that had different patterns of land use. Genetic diversity and colony densities were highest in South Africa and lowest in Northern Europe and were correlated with mean annual temperature. Confounding factors not related to climate, however, are also likely to influence genetic diversity and colony densities in honeybee populations. Land use showed a significantly negative influence over genetic diversity and the density of honeybee colonies over all sampling locations. In Europe honeybees sampled in nature reserves had genetic diversity and colony densities similar to those sampled in agricultural landscapes, which suggests that the former are not wild but may have come from managed hives. Other results also support this idea: putative wild bees were rare in our European samples, and the mean estimated density of honeybee colonies on the continent closely resembled the reported mean number of managed hives. Current densities of European honeybee populations are in the same range as those found in the adverse climatic conditions of the Kalahari and Saharan deserts, which suggests that beekeeping activities do not compensate for the loss of wild colonies. Our findings highlight the importance of reconsidering the conservation status of honeybees in Europe and of regarding beekeeping not only as a profitable business for producing honey, but also as an essential component of biodiversity conservation.

Mitochondrial J haplogroup is associated with lower blood pressure and anti-oxidant status: findings in octo/nonagenarians from the BELFAST Study

Mitochondria produce cellular energy but also free-radicals, which damage cells despite an array of endogenous anti-oxidants. In Northern Europe, the mitochondrial haplogroup J has been related to longevity in nonagenarians and centenarians but also with age-related disease. Hypertension is an important contributor to atherosclerotic-related diseases and its pathogenesis is associated with increased oxidative stress. In this study, we questioned whether J haplogroup octo/nonagenarians from the Belfast Elderly Longitudinal Free-living Elderly STudy (BELFAST) study showed evidence of protective blood pressure or anti-oxidant profile which might explain their longevity advantage. Briefly, in a cross-sectional study, community-living, mentally alert (Folstein >25/30), octo/nonagenarian subjects, recruited for good health, were enlisted and consented as part of the BELFAST study, for blood pressure, anthropometric measurements and blood sampling. DNA typing for mitochondrial haplotypes was carried out with measurements for enzymatic and non-enzymatic antioxidants. J haplogroup carriers showed lower systolic blood pressure and glutathione peroxidase activity (Gpx) with higher folate measurements. There was no change in urate, bilirubin, albumin or nutrition-related antioxidants-selenium or vitamins A, C and a and ß carotene. BELFAST study mtDNA J haplogroup octo/nonagenarians showed lower blood pressure and reduced glutathione peroxidase activity and higher folate, but no change for other antioxidants. These findings are of interest in view of mtDNA J haplogroup's association with increased age in some previous studies.

Low prevalence of primary biliary cirrhosis in Victoria, Australia. Melbourne Liver Group

A prevalence study of primary biliary cirrhosis was carried out in the state of Victoria, Australia, by means of a mail survey of specialist physicians and a review of hospital records. Eighty four cases were identified, giving a prevalence of 19.1 per million population (95% confidence limits (CI) 15.3, 23.7), which is among the lowest in published reports. The prevalence in the Australian born, at risk population (women over the age of 24) was 51 per million (95% CI 37.5, 67.9). Both these figures are considerably lower than those in populations of similar age distribution in the UK and northern Europe. Since most Victorians are descended from British or European settlers, the low prevalence of primary biliary cirrhosis in this study supports the hypothesis that local environmental factors may be important in the pathogenesis of this disease.

Predictions of survival up to 10 years after diagnosis for European women with breast cancer in 2000-2002

Few studies have addressed longer-term survival for breast cancer in European women. We have made predictions of 10-year survival for European women diagnosed with breast cancer in 2000-2002. Data for 114,312 adult women (15-99 years) diagnosed with a first primary malignant cancer of the breast during 2000-2002 were collected in the EUROCARE-4 study from 24 population-based cancer registries in 14 European countries. We estimated relative survival at 1, 5, and 10 years after diagnosis for women who were alive at some point during 2000-2002, using the period approach. We also estimated 10-year survival conditional on survival to 1 and 5 years after diagnosis. Ten-year survival exceeded 70% in most regions, but was only 54% in Eastern Europe, with the highest value in Northern Europe (about 75%). Ten-year survival conditional on survival for 1 year was 2-6% higher than 10-year survival in all European regions, and geographic differences were smaller. Ten-year survival for women who survived at least 5 years was 88% overall, with the lowest figure in Eastern Europe (79%) and the highest in the UK (91%). Women aged 50-69 years had higher overall survival than older and younger women (79%). Six cancer registries had adequate information on stage at diagnosis; in these jurisdictions, 10-year survival was 89% for local, 62% for regional and 10% for metastatic disease. Data on stage are not collected routinely or consistently, yet these data are essential for meaningful comparison of population-based survival, which provides vital information for improving breast cancer control. What's new? Policy-makers and health-care planners need accurate data on long-term survival to improve cancer control. This Europe-wide study of 10-year survival identified low survival in Eastern Europe for women with breast cancer in 2000-2002, and wide variation by age at diagnosis. Data on stage at diagnosis are crucial for meaningful comparison of population-based survival, and fundamental for improving breast cancer control, but our analyses confirmed that stage data are not collected routinely or consistently Copyright © 2012 UICC.

Streets for people, or why we should reuse buildings in the city centre

Cities are constantly changing, and city centres are the pinnacle of that change. In the last hundred years these changes have been dramatic, transforming city centres from a complex combination of uses into exclusively retail and leisure areas. Meanwhile, most residents of city centres fled to the suburbs, removing much of the livelihood of central areas. These transformations has been stronger in Northern Europe and especially in English speaking countries, where zoning policies were instrumental in urban development since the 1960s. This process along with the rise of shopping malls left many city centre streets lifeless, which in turn caused the dereliction and demolition of significant heritage areas and buildings. Belfast is no exception, where the broad process of suburbanization and zoning since the 1970s produced a city centre for either retail or dereliction, where much built heritage has been lost or is at risk of being lost.

Transatlantic distribution of the Alaskan White River Ash

Volcanic ash layers preserved within the geologic record represent precise time markers that correlate disparate depositional environments and enable the investigation of synchronous and/or asynchronous behaviors in Earth system and archaeological sciences. However, it is generally assumed that only exceptionally powerful events, such as supereruptions (≥450 km3 of ejecta as dense-rock equivalent; recurrence interval of ∼105 yr), distribute ash broadly enough to have an impact on human society, or allow us to address geologic, climatic, and cultural questions on an intercontinental scale. Here we use geochemical, age, and morphological evidence to show that the Alaskan White River Ash (eastern lobe; A.D. 833–850) correlates to the “AD860B” ash (A.D. 846–848) found in Greenland and northern Europe. These occurrences represent the distribution of an ash over 7000 km, linking marine, terrestrial, and ice-core records. Our results indicate that tephra from more moderate-size eruptions, with recurrence intervals of ∼100 yr, can have substantially greater distributions than previously thought, with direct implications for volcanic dispersal studies, correlation of widely distributed proxy records, and volcanic hazard assessment.

Evaluating the use of testate amoebae for palaeohydrological reconstruction in permafrost peatlands

The melting of high-latitude permafrost peatlands is a major concern due to a potential positive feedback on global climate change. We examine the ecology of testate amoebae in permafrost peatlands, based on sites in Sweden (~ 200 km north of the Arctic Circle). Multivariate statistical analysis confirms that water-table depth and moisture content are the dominant controls on the distribution of testate amoebae, corroborating the results from studies in mid-latitude peatlands. We present a new testate amoeba-based water table transfer function and thoroughly test it for the effects of spatial autocorrelation, clustered sampling design and uneven sampling gradients. We find that the transfer function has good predictive power; the best-performing model is based on tolerance-downweighted weighted averaging with inverse deshrinking (performance statistics with leave-one-out cross validation: R2 = 0.87, RMSEP = 5.25 cm). The new transfer function was applied to a short core from Stordalen mire, and reveals a major shift in peatland ecohydrology coincident with the onset of the Little Ice Age (c. AD 1400). We also applied the model to an independent contemporary dataset from Stordalen and find that it outperforms predictions based on other published transfer functions. The new transfer function will enable palaeohydrological reconstruction from permafrost peatlands in Northern Europe, thereby permitting greatly improved understanding of the long-term ecohydrological dynamics of these important carbon stores as well as their responses to recent climate change.

Managing Future offshore wind power variability in a European Supergrid

The future European power system will have a hierarchical structure created by layers of system control from a Supergrid via regional high-voltage transmission through to medium and low-voltage distribution. Each level will have generation sources such as large-scale offshore wind, wave, solar thermal, nuclear directly connected to this Supergrid and high levels of embedded generation, connected to the medium-voltage distribution system. It is expected that the fuel portfolio will be dominated by offshore wind in Northern Europe and PV in Southern Europe. The strategies required to manage the coordination of supply-side variability with demand-side variability will include large scale interconnection, demand side management, load aggregation and storage in the context of the Supergrid combined with the Smart Grid. The design challenge associated with this will not only include control topology, data acquisition, analysis and communications technologies, but also the selection of fuel portfolio at a macro level. This paper quantifies the amount of demand side management, storage and so-called 'back-up generation' needed to support an 80% renewable energy portfolio in Europe by 2050. © 2013 IEEE.

Managing the variability of supply in the European power system with high wind energy penetration

The power system of the future will have a hierarchical structure created by layers of system control from via regional high-voltage transmission through to medium and low-voltage distribution. Each level will have generation sources such as large-scale offshore wind, wave, solar thermal, nuclear directly connected to this Supergrid and high levels of embedded generation, connected to the medium-voltage distribution system. It is expected that the fuel portfolio will be dominated by offshore wind in Northern Europe and PV in Southern Europe. The strategies required to manage the coordination of supply-side variability with demand-side variability will include large scale interconnection, demand side management, load aggregation and storage in the concept of the Supergrid combined with the Smart Grid. The design challenge associated with this will not only include control topology, data acquisition, analysis and communications technologies, but also the selection of fuel portfolio at a macro level. This paper quantifies the amount of demand side management, storage and so-called ‘back-up generation’ needed to support an 80% renewable energy portfolio in Europe by 2050.