Desenlaces de las infecciones respiratorias en la unidad de cuidado intensivo de la fundación neumologica colombiana

Las infecciones asociadas a ventilación mecánica (VM) son frecuentes en la unidad de cuidado intensivo (UCI). Existen dos infecciones: neumonía (NAV) y traqueobronquitis (TAV). NAV genera impacto negativo en los desenlaces de los pacientes al aumentar la morbilidad, mortalidad y los tiempos en UCI y VM, pero no se conoce el impacto de TAV. El objetivo de este estudio fue identificar si hay diferencias entre NAV y TAV. Materiales y métodos: Se realizó un estudio de cohortes entre 2009 y 2013 en la UCI de la Fundación Neumológica Colombiana. De los pacientes con NAV y TAV se obtuvieron datos demográficos, epidemiológicos, microbiológicos y desenlaces como tiempos de estancia en UCI, VM y de hospitalización y mortalidad. Se compararon estadísticamente mediante t de Student y Chi2 para datos normales y prueba de Mann-Whitney para datos no normales. Resultados: Los pacientes con NAV y TAV fueron similares en la condición de ingreso a UCI. Al diagnóstico de la infección hubo diferencias significativas entre grupos en la oxigenación y tiempo de estancia hospitalaria, en UCI y VM. La microbiología fue con predominio de gérmenes Gram negativos y presencia de multirresistencia en el 52.5% de casos, sin diferencias significativas entre grupos. En los desenlaces, se observó diferencias en los tiempos totales de estancia en UCI, hospitalización y VM, pero sin diferencia en ellos después del diagnóstico. No hubo diferencias significativas en mortalidad. Conclusiones: NAV y TAV son similares en el impacto sobre la evolución de los pacientes en cuanto a morbilidad, estancias y mortalidad.

Los grupos paramilitares en Colombia: el incierto tránsito de la guerra a la paz

Esta investigación aborda las condiciones bajo las que se llevó a cabo en Colombia, en el primer gobierno del presidente Álvaro Uribe Vélez (2002-2006), la negociación entre el Estado y los grupos paramilitares. Se establecen las características de ese proceso de paz, su correspondencia con modelos tradicionales de negociación y sus alcances sobre el proceso de Desmovilización, Desarme y Reinserción (DDR) de las organizaciones paramilitares.

Measurement Quality in Indicators of Compositions: a Compositional Multitrait-Multimethod Approach

Compositional data, also called multiplicative ipsative data, are common in survey research instruments in areas such as time use, budget expenditure and social networks. Compositional data are usually expressed as proportions of a total, whose sum can only be 1. Owing to their constrained nature, statistical analysis in general, and estimation of measurement quality with a confirmatory factor analysis model for multitrait-multimethod (MTMM) designs in particular are challenging tasks. Compositional data are highly non-normal, as they range within the 0-1 interval. One component can only increase if some other(s) decrease, which results in spurious negative correlations among components which cannot be accounted for by the MTMM model parameters. In this article we show how researchers can use the correlated uniqueness model for MTMM designs in order to evaluate measurement quality of compositional indicators. We suggest using the additive log ratio transformation of the data, discuss several approaches to deal with zero components and explain how the interpretation of MTMM designs di ers from the application to standard unconstrained data. We show an illustration of the method on data of social network composition expressed in percentages of partner, family, friends and other members in which we conclude that the faceto-face collection mode is generally superior to the telephone mode, although primacy e ects are higher in the face-to-face mode. Compositions of strong ties (such as partner) are measured with higher quality than those of weaker ties (such as other network members)

Decadal predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled GCM: forecast skill and optimal perturbations using Linear Inverse Modelling

The decadal predictability of three-dimensional Atlantic Ocean anomalies is examined in a coupled global climate model (HadCM3) using a Linear Inverse Modelling (LIM) approach. It is found that the evolution of temperature and salinity in the Atlantic, and the strength of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), can be effectively described by a linear dynamical system forced by white noise. The forecasts produced using this linear model are more skillful than other reference forecasts for several decades. Furthermore, significant non-normal amplification is found under several different norms. The regions from which this growth occurs are found to be fairly shallow and located in the far North Atlantic. Initially, anomalies in the Nordic Seas impact the MOC, and the anomalies then grow to fill the entire Atlantic basin, especially at depth, over one to three decades. It is found that the structure of the optimal initial condition for amplification is sensitive to the norm employed, but the initial growth seems to be dominated by MOC-related basin scale changes, irrespective of the choice of norm. The consistent identification of the far North Atlantic as the most sensitive region for small perturbations suggests that additional observations in this region would be optimal for constraining decadal climate predictions.

Higher oxides of chlorine: absorption cross-sections of Cl2O6 and Cl2O4, the decomposition of Cl2O6, and the reactions of OClO with O and O-3

The absorption cross-sections of Cl2O6 and Cl2O4 have been obtained using a fast flow reactor with a diode array spectrometer (DAS) detection system. The absorption cross-sections at the wavelengths of maximum absorption (lambda(max)) determined in this study are those of Cl2O6: (1.47 +/- 0.15) x 10(-17) cm(2) molecule(-1), at lambda(max) = 276 nm and T = 298 K; and Cl2O4: (9.0 +/- 2.0) x 10(-19) cm(2) molecule(-1), at lambda(max) = 234 nm and T = 298 K. Errors quoted are two standard deviations together with estimates of the systematic error. The shapes of the absorption spectra were obtained over the wavelength range 200-450 nm for Cl2O6 and 200-350 nm for Cl2O4, and were normalized to the absolute cross-sections obtained at lambda(max) for each oxide, and are presented at 1 nm intervals. These data are discussed in relation to previous measurements. The reaction of O with OCIO has been investigated with the objective of observing transient spectroscopic absorptions. A transient absorption was seen, and the possibility is explored of identifying the species with the elusive sym-ClO3 or ClO4, both of which have been characterized in matrices, but not in the gas-phase. The photolysis of OCIO was also re-examined, with emphasis being placed on the products of reaction. UV absorptions attributable to one of the isomers of the ClO dimer, chloryl chloride (ClClO2) were observed; some Cl2O4 was also found at long photolysis times, when much of the ClClO2 had itself been photolysed. We suggest that reports of Cl2O6 formation in previous studies could be a consequence of a mistaken identification. At low temperatures, the photolysis of OCIO leads to the formation of Cl2O3 as a result of the addition of the ClO primary product to OCIO. ClClO2 also appears to be one product of the reaction between O-3 and OCIO, especially when the reaction occurs under explosive conditions. We studied the kinetics of the non-explosive process using a stopped-flow technique, and suggest a value for the room-temperature rate coefficient of (4.6 +/- 0.9) x 10(-19) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) (limit quoted is 2sigma random errors). The photochemical and thermal decomposition of Cl2O6 is described in this paper. For photolysis at k = 254 nm, the removal of Cl2O6 is not accompanied by the build up of any other strong absorber. The implications of the results are either that the photolysis of Cl2O6 produces Cl-2 directly, or that the initial photofragments are converted rapidly to Cl-2. In the thermal decomposition of Cl2O6, Cl2O4 was shown to be a product of reaction, although not necessarily the major one. The kinetics of decomposition were investigated using the stopped-flow technique. At relatively high [OCIO] present in the system, the decay kinetics obeyed a first-order law, with a limiting first-order rate coefficient of 0.002 s(-1). (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Biosynthesis of Artemisinin (Qinghaosu) and the Phytochemistry of Artemisia annua L. (Qinghao)

The Chinese medicinal plant Artemisia annua L. (Qinghao) is the only known source of the sesquiterpene artemisinin (Qinghaosu), which is used in the treatment of malaria. Artemisinin is a highly oxygenated sesquiterpene, containing a unique 1,2,4-trioxane ring structure, which is responsible for the antimalarial activity of this natural product. The phytochemistry of A. annua is dominated by both sesquiterpenoids and flavonoids, as is the case for many other plants in the Asteraceae family. However, A. annua is distinguished from the other members of the family both by the very large number of natural products which have been characterised to date (almost six hundred in total, including around fifty amorphane and cadinane sesquiterpenes), and by the highly oxygenated nature of many of the terpenoidal secondary metabolites. In addition, this species also contains an unusually large number of terpene allylic hydroperoxides and endoperoxides. This observation forms the basis of a proposal that the biogenesis of many of the highly oxygenated terpene metabolites from A. annua - including artemisinin itself may proceed by spontaneous oxidation reactions of terpene precursors, which involve these highly reactive allyllic hydroperoxides as intermediates. Although several studies of the biosynthesis of artemisinin have been reported in the literature from the 1980s and early 1990s, the collective results from these studies were rather confusing because they implied that an unfeasibly large number of different sesquiterpenes could all function as direct precursors to artemisinin (and some of the experiments also appeared to contradict one another). As a result, the complete biosynthetic pathway to artemisinin could not be stated conclusively at the time. Fortunately, studies which have been published in the last decade are now providing a clearer picture of the biosynthetic pathways in A. annua. By synthesising some of the sesquiterpene natural products which have been proposed as biogenetic precursors to artemisinin in such a way that they incorporate a stable isotopic label, and then feeding these precursors to intact A. annua plants, it has now been possible to demonstrate that dihydroartemisinic acid is a late-stage precursor to artemisinin and that the closely related secondary metabolite, artemisinic acid, is not (this approach differs from all the previous studies, which used radio-isotopically labelled precursors that were fed to a plant homogenate or a cell-free preparation). Quite remarkably, feeding experiments with labeled dihydroartemisinic acid and artemisinic acid have resulted in incorporation of label into roughly half of all the amorphane and cadinane sesquiterpenes which were already known from phytochemical studies of A. annua. These findings strongly support the hypothesis that many of the highly oxygenated sesquiterpenoids from this species arise by oxidation reactions involving allylic hydroperoxides, which seem to be such a defining feature of the chemistry of A. annua. In the particular case of artemisinin, these in vivo results are also supported by in vitro studies, demonstrating explicitly that the biosynthesis of artemisinin proceeds via the tertiary allylic hydroperoxide, which is derived from oxidation of dihydroartemisinic acid. There is some evidence that the autoxidation of dihydroartemisinic acid to this tertiary allylic hydroperoxide is a non-enzymatic process within the plant, requiring only the presence of light; and, furthermore, that the series of spontaneous rearrangement reactions which then convert thi allylic hydroperoxide to the 1,2,4-trioxane ring of artemisinin are also non-enzymatic in nature.

The case of negative day-ahead electricity prices

In recent years, Germany has significantly increased its share of electricity produced from renewable sources, which is mainly due to the Renewable Energy Act (EEG). The EEG substantially impacts the dynamics of intra-day electricity prices by increasing the likelihood of negative prices. In this paper, we present a non-Gaussian process to model German intra-day electricity prices and propose an estimation procedure for this model. Most importantly, our model is able to generate extreme positive and negative spikes. A simulation study demonstrates the ability of our model to capture the characteristics of the data.

Wind-direction effects on urban-type flows

Practically all extant work on flows over obstacle arrays, whether laboratory experiments or numerical modelling, is for cases where the oncoming wind is normal to salient faces of the obstacles. In the field, however, this is rarely the case. Here, simulations of flows at various directions over arrays of cubes representing typical urban canopy regions are presented and discussed. The computations are of both direct numerical simulation and large-eddy simulation type. Attention is concentrated on the differences in the mean flow within the canopy region arising from the different wind directions and the consequent effects on global properties such as the total surface drag, which can change very significantly—by up to a factor of three in some circumstances. It is shown that for a given Reynolds number the typical viscous forces are generally a rather larger fraction of the pressure forces (principally the drag) for non-normal than for normal wind directions and that, dependent on the surface morphology, the average flow direction deep within the canopy can be largely independent of the oncoming wind direction. Even for regular arrays of regular obstacles, a wind direction not normal to the obstacle faces can in general generate a lateral lift force (in the direction normal to the oncoming flow). The results demonstrate this and it is shown how computations in a finite domain with the oncoming flow generated by an appropriate forcing term (e.g. a pressure gradient) then lead inevitably to an oncoming wind direction aloft that is not aligned with the forcing term vector.

Boundary-layer friction in midlatitude cyclone

Results from an idealized three-dimensional baroclinic life-cycle model are interpreted in a potential vorticity (PV) framework to identify the physical mechanisms by which frictional processes acting in the atmospheric boundary layer modify and reduce the baroclinic development of a midlatitude storm. Considering a life cycle where the only non-conservative process acting is boundary-layer friction, the rate of change of depth-averaged PV within the boundary layer is governed by frictional generation of PV and the flux of PV into the free troposphere. Frictional generation of PV has two contributions: Ekman generation, which is directly analogous to the well-known Ekman-pumping mechanism for barotropic vortices, and baroclinic generation, which depends on the turning of the wind in the boundary layer and low-level horizontal temperature gradients. It is usually assumed, at least implicitly, that an Ekman process of negative PV generation is the mechanism whereby friction reduces the strength and growth rates of baroclinic systems. Although there is evidence for this mechanism, it is shown that baroclinic generation of PV dominates, producing positive PV anomalies downstream of the low centre, close to developing warm and cold fronts. These PV anomalies are advected by the large-scale warm conveyor belt flow upwards and polewards, fluxed into the troposphere near the warm front, and then advected westwards relative to the system. The result is a thin band of positive PV in the lower troposphere above the surface low centre. This PV is shown to be associated with a positive static stability anomaly, which Rossby edge wave theory suggests reduces the strength of the coupling between the upper- and lower-level PV anomalies, thereby reducing the rate of baroclinic development. This mechanism, which is a result of the baroclinic dynamics in the frontal regions, is in marked contrast with simple barotropic spin-down ideas. Finally we note the implications of these frictionally generated PV anomalies for cyclone forecasting.

A fast and robust statistical test based on likelihood ratio with Bartlett correction to identify Granger causality between gene sets

We propose a likelihood ratio test ( LRT) with Bartlett correction in order to identify Granger causality between sets of time series gene expression data. The performance of the proposed test is compared to a previously published bootstrapbased approach. LRT is shown to be significantly faster and statistically powerful even within non- Normal distributions. An R package named gGranger containing an implementation for both Granger causality identification tests is also provided.

Strategisk utveckling och ekonomistyrning : Ett livscykelperspektiv

This dissertation synthesizes previous research and develops a model for the study of strategic development, strategic congruence and management control. The model is used to analyze a longitudinal case study of the Swedish engineering company Atlas Copco. Employing contingency theory, the study confirms that long-term survival of a company requires adaption to contingencies. Three levels of strategy are examined: corporate, business and functional. Previous research suggests that consistency between these levels (strategic congruence) is necessary for a company to be competitive. The dissertation challenges this proposition by using a life-cycle perspective and analyzes strategic congruence in the different phases of a life cycle. It also studies management control from a life-cycle perspective. In this context, two types of management control are examined: formal and informal. From a longitudinal perspective, the study further discusses how these types interact during organizational life cycles. The dissertation shows that strategic development is more complex than previous studies have indicated. It is a long, complex and non-linear process, the results of which cannot always be predicted. Previous models for strategy and management control are based on simple relationships and rarely take into account the fact that companies often go through different phases of strategic development. The case study shows that strategic incongruence may occur at times during organizational life cycles. Furthermore, the use of management control varies over time. In the maturity phase, formal control is in focus, while the use of informal control has a bigger role in both the introduction and decline phases. Research on strategy and management control has intensified in recent years. Still there is a gap regarding the coordination of complex corporate structures. The present study contributes with further knowledge on how companies manage long-term strategic development. Few studies deal with more than two levels of strategy. Moreover, the present study addresses the need to understand strategic congruence from a life-cycle perspective. This is particularly relevant in practice, when management in large companies face difficult issues for which they expect business research to assist them in the decision-making process.

Parameter estimation of Poisson generalized linear mixed models based on three different statistical principles : a simulation study

Generalized linear mixed models are flexible tools for modeling non-normal data and are useful for accommodating overdispersion in Poisson regression models with random effects. Their main difficulty resides in the parameter estimation because there is no analytic solution for the maximization of the marginal likelihood. Many methods have been proposed for this purpose and many of them are implemented in software packages. The purpose of this study is to compare the performance of three different statistical principles - marginal likelihood, extended likelihood, Bayesian analysis-via simulation studies. Real data on contact wrestling are used for illustration.

Normative life satisfaction: measurement issues and a homeostatic model

Previous studies have established that, when life satisfaction is measured over a range from 0 to 100 the mean scores of Western populations average 75 ± 2.5. The consistency of these data has given rise to the idea that life satisfaction may be held under homeostatic control. This paper further investigates this hypothesis by examining the distribution of data within populations. It also examines these data with a view to elucidating various methodological issues regarding life satisfaction measurement. In terms of the methodological issues it is concluded that measurement is best achieved using bi-directional Likert scales with at least 11 choice points. It is also determined that the life satisfaction of Western populations did not change over the decade 1980–1990, and that data derived from college students cannot be validly employed as proxy general population data. In terms of data distribution, it is calculated that the normal range of life satisfaction within Western populations lies within the range 40 to 100. The consistency of this non-normal distribution is argued to be further evidence that life satisfaction is held under homestatic control, and a descriptive model is proposed.

Neutrosophic information fusion applied to the options market

In this paper we basically make two propositions - firstly a non-linear process that is primarily fuelled by mass cognitive dissonance could generate systematic deviations between the theoretical and market prices of long-term options, and secondly such deviations are best reconciled in terms of neutrosophic rather than ruled-based reasoning, especially in the context of the users of automated trading systems designed to generate trading signals based on analysis of information  from conflicting sources.

Testing for the random walk hypothesis in the case of visitor arrivals : evidence from Indian tourism

Testing for the random walk hypothesis, which asserts that a series is a non-stationary process or a unit root process, in the case of visitor arrivals has important implications for policy. If, for instance, visitor arrivals are characterized by a unit root, then it implies that shocks to visitor arrivals are permanent. However, if visitor arrivals are without a unit root, this implies that shocks to visitor arrivals are temporary. This study provides evidence on the random walk hypothesis for visitor arrivals to India using the recently developed Im et al. (2003) and Maddala and Wu (1999) panel unit root tests. Both tests allow one to reject the random walk hypothesis, implying that shocks to visitor arrivals to India from the 10 major source markets have a temporary effect on visitor arrivals.