Parasitoids of the endangered leafcutter ant Atta robusta Borgmeier in urban and natural areas

Parasitoids of the endangered leafcutter ant Atta robusta Borgmeier in urban and natural areas. Hosts of parasitoids in urban areas may suffer from a double threat of habitat destruction by urbanization and parasitism pressure. Moreover, the parasitoids themselves might be at risk if they are specialists. Here, we studied whether Atta robusta (Hymenoptera, Formicidae), which is on the red list of Brazilian threatened species, suffers from higher parasitism pressure in an urban area compared to a natural one. In addition, we determined whether their specialist parasitoids, Eibesfeldtphora breviloba and Myrmosicarius exrobusta (Diptera, Phoridae), are in risk and evaluated whether they are influenced by habitat structure, temperature, humidity, ant traffic, and time of the day. The study was carried out in an urban park and in a natural protected area in the city of Rio de Janeiro. In each site we chose an open area and a closed area (forest) and sampled nine nests in each area. We found that parasitism pressure was similar in urban and natural areas, with the same two parasitoid species present in both areas. The main difference was related to habitat structure, since M. exrobusta was mainly present in open areas while E. breviloba was almost exclusively found in closed areas. Myrmosicarius exrobusta was not present during the hottest midday times, and its abundance was negatively correlated to vapor pressure deficit. These results suggest that green areas can be an important component in efforts to conserve diversity in urban areas. However, the complexity of the habitats in those areas is a fundamental issue in designing urban parks.

Establishment of new crops for the production of natural rubber.

Natural rubber is a unique biopolymer of strategic importance that, in many of its most significant applications, cannot be replaced by synthetic alternatives. The rubber tree Hevea brasiliensis is the almost exclusive commercial source of natural rubber currently and alternative crops should be developed for several reasons, including: a disease risk to the rubber tree that could potentially decimate current production, a predicted shortage of natural rubber supply, increasing allergic reactions to rubber obtained from the Brazilian rubber tree and a general shift towards renewables. This review summarizes our knowledge of plants that can serve as alternative sources of natural rubber, of rubber biosynthesis and the scientific gaps that must be filled to bring the alternative crops into production.

A low-dose stimulation protocol using highly purified follicle-stimulating hormone can lead to high pregnancy rates in in vitro fertilization patients with polycystic ovaries who are at risk of a high ovarian response to gonadotropins.

OBJECTIVE: To study the benefits of a low-dose stimulation (LDS) protocol with purified urinary follicle-stimulating hormone in patients with polycystic ovaries who have presented previously with a very high ovarian response to a standard hMG stimulation. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING: Fertility center in a university hospital. PATIENT(S): Sixty-one patients involved in an IVF/ICSI program from January 1995 to December 1996. INTERVENTION(S): The patients were first stimulated with a standard protocol using hMG and presented with a very high ovarian response. These patients were then stimulated a second time using a low-dose protocol. Cryopreserved embryos were transferred in later artificial or natural cycles until to December 1999. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Number of gonadotropin ampules; estradiol level on the day of ovulation induction; follicles, oocytes, and cryopreserved zygotes; fertilization, implantation, and pregnancy rates; and number of ovarian hyperstimulation syndromes (OHSS). RESULT(S): The number of ampules used, the estradiol level reached, and the number of oocytes obtained were significantly lower under the LDS than the standard protocol. High implantation (21.8%) and clinical pregnancy (38.4%) rates were obtained after LDS. The cumulated deliveries per cycle started and per patient were, respectively, 41.6% and 52.5%. Five patients suffered OHSS with the standard protocol, and none with the LDS. CONCLUSION(S): The LDS protocol offers a safe and efficient treatment for patients who present with echographic polycystic ovaries and are at risk of an excessive ovarian response to standard IVF stimulation protocols.

Monitoring natural hazards

Few subjects have caught the attention of the entire world as much as those dealing with natural hazards. The first decade of this new millennium provides a litany of tragic examples of various hazards that turned into disasters affecting millions of individuals around the globe. The human losses (some 225,000 people) associated with the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami, the economic costs (approximately 200 billion USD) of the 2011 Tohoku Japan earthquake, tsunami and reactor event, and the collective social impacts of human tragedies experienced during Hurricane Katrina in 2005 all provide repetitive reminders that we humans are temporary guests occupying a very active and angry planet. Any examples may have been cited here to stress the point that natural events on Earth may, and often do, lead to disasters and catastrophes when humans place themselves into situations of high risk. Few subjects share the true interdisciplinary dependency that characterizes the field of natural hazards. From geology and geophysics to engineering and emergency response to social psychology and economics, the study of natural hazards draws input from an impressive suite of unique and previously independent specializations. Natural hazards provide a common platform to reduce disciplinary boundaries and facilitate a beneficial synergy in the provision of timely and useful information and action on this critical subject matter. As social norms change regarding the concept of acceptable risk and human migration leads to an explosion in the number of megacities, coastal over-crowding and unmanaged habitation in precarious environments such as mountainous slopes, the vulnerability of people and their susceptibility to natural hazards increases dramatically. Coupled with the concerns of changing climates, escalating recovery costs, a growing divergence between more developed and less developed countries, the subject of natural hazards remains on the forefront of issues that affect all people, nations, and environments all the time.This treatise provides a compendium of critical, timely and very detailed information and essential facts regarding the basic attributes of natural hazards and concomitant disasters. The Encyclopedia of Natural Hazards effectively captures and integrates contributions from an international portfolio of almost 300 specialists whose range of expertise addresses over 330 topics pertinent to the field of natural hazards. Disciplinary barriers are overcome in this comprehensive treatment of the subject matter. Clear illustrations and numerous color images enhance the primary aim to communicate and educate. The inclusion of a series of unique ?classic case study? events interspersed throughout the volume provides tangible examples linking concepts, issues, outcomes and solutions. These case studies illustrate different but notable recent, historic and prehistoric events that have shaped the world as we now know it. They provide excellent focal points linking the remaining terms in the volume to the primary field of study. This Encyclopedia of Natural Hazards will remain a standard reference of choice for many years.

A reflection about the social and technological aspects in flood risk management - the case of the Italian Civil Protection

The right of a person to be protected from natural hazards is a characteristic of the social and economical development of the society. This paper is a contribution to the reflection about the role of Civil Protection organizations in a modern society. The paper is based in the inaugural conference made by the authors on the 9th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms. Two major issues are considered. The first one is sociological; the Civil Protection organizations and the responsible administration of the land use planning should be perceived as reliable as possible, in order to get consensus on the restrictions they pose, temporary or definitely, on the individual free use of the territory as well as in the entire warning system. The second one is technological: in order to be reliable they have to issue timely alert and warning to the population at large, but such alarms should be as "true" as possible. With this aim, the paper summarizes the historical evolution of the risk assessment, starting from the original concept of "hazard", introducing the concepts of "scenario of event" and "scenario of risk" and ending with a discussion about the uncertainties and limits of the most advanced and efficient tools to predict, to forecast and to observe the ground effects affecting people and their properties. The discussion is centred in the case of heavy rains and flood events in the North-West of Mediterranean Region.

Natural killer cell genes and functions after kidney transplantation

Natural Killer (NK) cells are of special interest in solid organ transplantation (SOT) because classical immunosuppressive drugs could enhance NK cells activity.We studied NK cells after kidney transplantation in three different situations. First, we analysed the peripheral repertoire reconstitution and function of NK cells after a polyclonal rabbit anti-thymocytes globulin (rATG) induction therapy, in 20 patients transplanted with living donor and with a low immunological risk. Second, we analysed the influence of KIR genes on the risk of CMV primo-infection or reactivation in 224 transplanted patients during the first year. Finally, we studied the risk of rejection and graft function during the first 5 years according to the KIR genes. Our study demonstrates that after an intial drop, NK cell reconstitution is fast with a ratio of CD56+/CD3− cells versus CD3+ cells that remains identical. The fraction of NK cells expressing the inhibitory receptor NKG2A significantly increases and the activating receptor NKG2D decreases after transplantation to retrieve the pretransplantation value after one year. The secretion of INF-f × and the cytotoxicity is maintained over time after transplantation. Then, we demonstrated that the presence of 2 KIR missing ligands and a large number of activating KIR gene protected against CMV primo-infection or reactivation during the first year post transplantation. Finally, the KIR genes and their HLA ligands do not influence the long term graft function after univariate and multivariate analysis. Our data suggest that despite the modification of the receptor repertoire, NK cell activity is preserved. NK cells are an important player of the immune response in the first year after transplantation mainly thanks to their anti-infectious activity.

Recommendations and Funding Options to Mitigate Flood Risk, November 2009

Iowa legislation required the state’s Water Resources Coordinating Council (WRCC) to submit policy and make recommendations that promote a watershed management approach to reduce the adverse impact of future flooding on this state’s residents, businesses, communities, and soil and water quality.

Impact of common risk factors of fibrosis progression in chronic hepatitis C.

OBJECTIVE: The natural course of chronic hepatitis C varies widely. To improve the profiling of patients at risk of developing advanced liver disease, we assessed the relative contribution of factors for liver fibrosis progression in hepatitis C. DESIGN: We analysed 1461 patients with chronic hepatitis C with an estimated date of infection and at least one liver biopsy. Risk factors for accelerated fibrosis progression rate (FPR), defined as ≥0.13 Metavir fibrosis units per year, were identified by logistic regression. Examined factors included age at infection, sex, route of infection, HCV genotype, body mass index (BMI), significant alcohol drinking (≥20 g/day for ≥5 years), HIV coinfection and diabetes. In a subgroup of 575 patients, we assessed the impact of single nucleotide polymorphisms previously associated with fibrosis progression in genome-wide association studies. Results were expressed as attributable fraction (AF) of risk for accelerated FPR. RESULTS: Age at infection (AF 28.7%), sex (AF 8.2%), route of infection (AF 16.5%) and HCV genotype (AF 7.9%) contributed to accelerated FPR in the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort Study, whereas significant alcohol drinking, anti-HIV, diabetes and BMI did not. In genotyped patients, variants at rs9380516 (TULP1), rs738409 (PNPLA3), rs4374383 (MERTK) (AF 19.2%) and rs910049 (major histocompatibility complex region) significantly added to the risk of accelerated FPR. Results were replicated in three additional independent cohorts, and a meta-analysis confirmed the role of age at infection, sex, route of infection, HCV genotype, rs738409, rs4374383 and rs910049 in accelerating FPR. CONCLUSIONS: Most factors accelerating liver fibrosis progression in chronic hepatitis C are unmodifiable.

Vestibular Schwannoma: The Evolution of Hearing and Tumor Size in Natural Course and after Treatment by LINAC Stereotactic Radiosurgery.

OBJECTIVE: To review the natural course of tumor size and hearing during conservative management of 151 patients with unilateral vestibular schwannoma (VS), and to evaluate the same parameters for the part of the group (n = 84) who were treated by LINAC stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS). METHODS: In prospectively collected data, patients underwent MRI and complete audiovestibular tests at inclusion, during the conservative management period and after SRS. Hearing was graded according to the Gardner-Robertson (GR) scale and tumor size according to Koos. Statistics were performed using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and multivariate analyses including linear and logistic regression. Specific insight was given to patients with serviceable hearing. RESULTS: During the conservative management period (mean follow-up time: 24 months, range: 6-96), the annual risk of GR class degradation was 6% for GRI and 15% for GR II patients. Hearing loss as an initial symptom was highly predictive of further hearing loss (p = 0.003). Tumor growth reached 25%. For SRS patients, functional hearing preservation was 51% at 1 year and 36% at 3 years. Tumor control was 94 and 91%, respectively. CONCLUSION: In VS patients, hearing loss at the time of diagnosis is a predictor of poorer hearing outcome. LINAC SRS is efficient for tumor control. Patients who preserved their pretreatment hearing presented less hearing loss per year after SRS than before treatment, suggesting a protective effect of SRS when cochlear function can be preserved.

An interactive web-GIS tool for risk analysis: a case study in the Fella River basin, Italy

This paper presents a prototype of an interactive web-GIS tool for risk analysis of natural hazards, in particular for floods and landslides, based on open-source geospatial software and technologies. The aim of the presented tool is to assist the experts (risk managers) in analysing the impacts and consequences of a certain hazard event in a considered region, providing an essential input to the decision-making process in the selection of risk management strategies by responsible authorities and decision makers. This tool is based on the Boundless (OpenGeo Suite) framework and its client-side environment for prototype development, and it is one of the main modules of a web-based collaborative decision support platform in risk management. Within this platform, the users can import necessary maps and information to analyse areas at risk. Based on provided information and parameters, loss scenarios (amount of damages and number of fatalities) of a hazard event are generated on the fly and visualized interactively within the web-GIS interface of the platform. The annualized risk is calculated based on the combination of resultant loss scenarios with different return periods of the hazard event. The application of this developed prototype is demonstrated using a regional data set from one of the case study sites, Fella River of northeastern Italy, of the Marie Curie ITN CHANGES project.

Models and applications for risk assessment and prediction of Asian soybean rust epidemics

Asian rust of soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merril] is one of the most important fungal diseases of this crop worldwide. The recent introduction of Phakopsora pachyrhizi Syd. & P. Syd in the Americas represents a major threat to soybean production in the main growing regions, and significant losses have already been reported. P. pachyrhizi is extremely aggressive under favorable weather conditions, causing rapid plant defoliation. Epidemiological studies, under both controlled and natural environmental conditions, have been done for several decades with the aim of elucidating factors that affect the disease cycle as a basis for disease modeling. The recent spread of Asian soybean rust to major production regions in the world has promoted new development, testing and application of mathematical models to assess the risk and predict the disease. These efforts have included the integration of new data, epidemiological knowledge, statistical methods, and advances in computer simulation to develop models and systems with different spatial and temporal scales, objectives and audience. In this review, we present a comprehensive discussion on the models and systems that have been tested to predict and assess the risk of Asian soybean rust. Limitations, uncertainties and challenges for modelers are also discussed.

The probabilistic risk analysis of external hazards of an interim storage for spent nuclear fuel

Tässä diplomityössä tehtiin Olkiluodon ydinvoimalaitoksella sijaitsevan käytetyn ydinpolttoaineen allasvarastointiin perustuvan välivaraston todennäköisyysperustainen ulkoisten uhkien riskianalyysi. Todennäköisyysperustainen riskianalyysi (PRA) on yleisesti käytetty riskien tunnistus- ja lähestymistapa ydinvoimalaitoksella. Työn tarkoituksena oli laatia täysin uusi ulkoisten uhkien PRA-analyysi, koska Suomessa ei ole aiemmin tehty vastaavanlaisia tämän tutkimusalueen riskitarkasteluja. Riskitarkastelun motiivina ovat myös maailmalla tapahtuneiden luonnonkatastrofien vuoksi korostunut ulkoisten uhkien rooli käytetyn ydinpolttoaineen välivarastoinnin turvallisuudessa. PRA analyysin rakenne pohjautui tutkimuksen alussa luotuun metodologiaan. Analyysi perustuu mahdollisten ulkoisten uhkien tunnistamiseen pois lukien ihmisen aikaansaamat tahalliset vahingot. Tunnistettujen ulkoisten uhkien esiintymistaajuuksien ja vahingoittamispotentiaalin perusteella ulkoiset uhat joko karsittiin pois tutkimuksessa määriteltyjen karsintakriteerien avulla tai analysoitiin tarkemmin. Tutkimustulosten perusteella voitiin todeta, että tiedot hyvin harvoin tapahtuvista ulkoisista uhista ovat epätäydellisiä. Suurinta osaa näistä hyvin harvoin tapahtuvista ulkoisista uhista ei ole koskaan esiintynyt eikä todennäköisesti koskaan tule esiintymään Olkiluodon vaikutusalueella tai edes Suomessa. Esimerkiksi salaman iskujen ja öljyaltistuksen roolit ja vaikutukset erilaisten komponenttien käytettävyyteen ovat epävarmasti tunnettuja. Tutkimuksen tuloksia voidaan pitää kokonaisuudessaan merkittävinä, koska niiden perusteella voidaan osoittaa ne ulkoiset uhat, joiden vaikutuksia olisi syytä tutkia tarkemmin. Yksityiskohtaisempi tietoisuus hyvin harvoin esiintyvistä ulkoisista uhista tarkentaisi alkutapahtumataajuuksien estimaatteja.

Social capital and natural hazards : trust and cohesion in the eastern visayas of the Philippines

Cette thèse porte sur le capital social et les mesures prises afin de se préparer aux aléas naturels aux Philippines. L’archipel est régulièrement soumis à de nombreux risques de catastrophe, générant parfois des conséquences désastreuses pour la population et le patrimoine économique du pays. Par ailleurs, ces îles portent un lourd héritage colonial rendant omniprésents les inégalités socioéconomiques, le manque de solidarité et la pauvreté. Le concept du capital social demeure encore très polémique, cependant nous croyons qu'il peut s'avérer utile afin de mieux réfléchir à la façon dont les sociétés humaines interagissent avec les aléas naturels. Nos recherches mettent en avant l’importance des inégalités socioéconomiques, du contexte et de l'échelle géographique dans l’analyse du capital social et de la préparation aux aléas. Elles soulignent d'autre part que la compréhension des dynamiques sociales, telles que la confiance et la participation communautaire, ne peut être atteinte sans une considération des contextes politiques. Nous avons porté une attention particulière à l'examen des contextes et des différentes formes de capital social, et ce, à plusieurs niveaux géographiques (village, municipalité, région, pays). Un nombre croissant d'études montre que l'inégalité économique entraîne des conséquences néfastes sur le capital social. Des recherches récentes ont également commencé à interroger les rapports entre le capital social et les catastrophes dites « naturelles ». Notre thèse établit un lien entre ces deux approches en couplant une analyse générale de la situation des Philippines à une étude approfondie d'une municipalité rurale isolée de la région des Visayas orientales. L'argument central de cette thèse est que l'inégalité économique produit des effets néfastes sur le capital social, entraînant des répercussions négatives sur la prévention des catastrophes « naturelles ». Par le biais de l'analyse de plusieurs échelles géographiques, cette thèse entend montrer comment les inégalités, de par leur impact sur le capital social, contribuent à augmenter les chances de voir les aléas naturels se constituer en désastres. Nous avançons qu'un usage circonspect du concept de capital social, prenant en compte les complexités politiques, historiques, et géographiques du contexte auquel il s'applique, a la capacité d'améliorer la manière dont les gens se préparent collectivement afin d'éviter que les aléas ne se transforment en catastrophes.

River ecosystems at risk

Worldwide water managers are increasingly challenged to allocate sufficient and affordable water supplies to different water use sectors without further degrading river ecosystems and their valuable services to mankind. Since 1950 human population almost tripled, water abstractions increased by a factor of four, and the number of large dam constructions is about eight times higher today. From a hydrological perspective, the alteration of river flows (temporally and spatially) is one of the main consequences of global change and further impairments can be expected given growing population pressure and projected climate change. Implications have been addressed in numerous hydrological studies, but with a clear focus on human water demands. Ecological water requirements have often been neglected or addressed in a very simplistic manner, particularly from the large-scale perspective. With his PhD thesis, Christof Schneider took up the challenge to assess direct (dam operation and water abstraction) and indirect (climate change) impacts of human activities on river flow regimes and evaluate the consequences for river ecosystems by using a modeling approach. The global hydrology model WaterGAP3 (developed at CESR) was applied and further developed within this thesis to carry out several model experiments and assess anthropogenic river flow regime modifications and their effects on river ecosystems. To address the complexity of ecological water requirements the assessment is based on three main ideas: (i) the natural flow paradigm, (ii) the perception that different flows have different ecological functions, and (iii) the flood pulse concept. The thesis shows that WaterGAP3 performs well in representing ecologically relevant flow characteristics on a daily time step, and therefore justifies its application within this research field. For the first time a methodology was established to estimate bankfull flow on a 5 by 5 arc minute grid cell raster globally, which is a key parameter in eFlow assessments as it marks the point where rivers hydraulically connect to adjacent floodplains. Management of dams and water consumption pose a risk to floodplains and riparian wetlands as flood volumes are significantly reduced. The thesis highlights that almost one-third of 93 selected Ramsar sites are seriously affected by modified inundation patterns today, and in the future, inundation patterns are very likely to be further impaired as a result of new major dam initiatives and climate change. Global warming has been identified as a major threat to river flow regimes as rising temperatures, declining snow cover, changing precipitation patterns and increasing climate variability are expected to seriously modify river flow regimes in the future. Flow regimes in all climate zones will be affected, in particular the polar zone (Northern Scandinavia) with higher river flows during the year and higher flood peaks in spring. On the other side, river flows in the Mediterranean are likely to be even more intermittent in the future because of strong reductions in mean summer precipitation as well as a decrease in winter precipitation, leading to an increasing number of zero flow events creating isolated pools along the river and transitions from lotic to lentic waters. As a result, strong impacts on river ecosystem integrity can be expected. Already today, large amounts of water are withdrawn in this region for agricultural irrigation and climate change is likely to exacerbate the current situation of water shortages.