The future of human rights protection in the new Libya: prospects and challenges. Jean Monnet Occasional Paper No. 6/2014

There is no doubt that demand for the respect of human rights was one of the factors behind the Arab Spring and Libya is no exception. Four decades of absolute dictatorship headed by Muammar Gaddafi had been further tainted with gross violations of human rights of Libyan citizens and restrictions on their basic freedoms. Before the revolution, Libya was a country where no political parties were allowed. Freedom of expression and the press were extremely restricted. Reports about the country’s human rights violations published by a number of international organizations documented large scale human rights abuses at the hands of the Gaddafi regime. The 17 February 2011 revolution in Libya led to a turning point in the country’s history. The regime of Muammar Gaddafi which had dominated the country since 1969 eventually collapsed, leading to the beginning of the painful task of reconciliation and state building. Nonetheless it is estimated that more than 7000 prisoners are held captive by various militias and armed groups without due process. This in addition to thousands of internally displaced persons. State building involves the consolidation of a democratic state based on a democratic constitution. In 2011, a constitutional declaration was adopted to replace the one that had been in effect since 1969. This was intended as a stop-gap solution to allow the new political forces unleashed in the country time to write a new democratic constitution. To help consolidate the democratic state, three elements are required: that human rights be placed at its core; that these rights are truly implemented and applied; and lastly that the independence of the judiciary is safeguarded. For all this to happen it is also essential to strengthen education on human rights by encouraging non-governmental organizations to take a stronger role in promoting human rights. Libyan citizens can only avail themselves of these rights and strengthen their implementation if they know what they are and how they can benefit from their implementation

Tourism in the Mediterranean: Scenarios up to 2030. MEDPRO Report No. 1/July 2011- (updated May 2013)

From 1990 to 2010, the 11 countries of the south-eastern Mediterranean region (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Occupied Palestinian Territory, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey, hereafter SMCs) recorded the highest growth rates in inbound world tourism. In the same period, domestic tourism in these countries also increased rapidly, which is astonishing given the security risks, natural disasters, oil prices rises and economic uncertainties in the region. Even the 2008 financial crisis had no severe impact on this growth, confirming the resilience of tourism and the huge potential of the SMCs in this sector. The Arab Spring brought this trend to an abrupt halt in early 2011, but it may resume after 2014 with the gradual democratisation process, despite the economic slowdown of the European Union – its main market. This paper looks at whether this trend will continue up to 2030, and provides four different possible scenarios for the development of the tourism sector in SMCs for 2030: i) reference scenario, ii) common (cooperation) sustainable development scenario, iii) polarised (regional) development scenario and iv) failed development – decline and conflict – scenario. In all cases, international and domestic tourist arrivals will increase. However, three main factors will strongly influence the development of the tourism sector in the SMCs: security, competitiveness linked to the efficient use of ICT, and adjustment to climate change.

European Neighbourhood Policy Package - Conclusions for the Eastern Partners. OSW Commentary No. 78, 2012-05-25

In 2011 the European Union began a process aimed at reforming its policy on the Eastern and Southern Neighbourhood. The change in circumstances in neighbouring countries following the Arab Spring, along with the lack of significant progress regarding Eastern Europe’s integration with the EU, formed the main driving force behind this process. The prime objective of the changes to the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) was the need to introduce new incentives for partner countries to modernise and integrate more closely with the EU Another aim was to increase the flexibility of EU instruments (by adapting them to the specific context of each partner state). One year later, on 15 May 2012, the European Commission and the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy published the European Neighbourhood Policy Package which reported on the progress made in the implementation of the ENP over the preceding year and set out the aims and Action Plans for 20131. An analysis of the outcomes of changes made to the EU policy towards Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus suggests that the aim of the revision was aimed more at addressing the changing political landscape in the region rather than at the implementation of a substantial reform of the neighbourhood policy. The ENP is largely based on bureaucratic procedures (the negotiation of bilateral agreements, the implementation of support programmes). These have only a limited capacity to bring about lasting change in the region, as has been exemplified by the deterioration of democratic standards in a number of countries; this was highlighted in EU’s own reports. This problem is particularly clear in the case of Ukraine; until recently it was seen as the leader of European integration but is now raising much concern due to a deterioration in the state of democracy there. EU instruments have a limited influence on the situation in Eastern Partnership countries and the region’s significance on the EU’s agenda is falling (the priority is now given to counteracting the economic crisis, and prominence in the neighbourhood policy has been given to the Southern Mediterranean). In response to this EU policy on Eastern Europe will focus to a larger extent on technical and sectoral cooperation.

Macroeconomic Scenarios for the Euro-Mediterranean Area Quantification based on the GEM-E3 Model. MEDPRO Report No. 7, July 2013

Four alternative macroeconomic scenarios for southern Mediterranean countries are quantified in this study with the use of GEM-E3, a general equilibrium model. These are i) the continuation of current policies (business-as-usual scenario), ii) southern Mediterranean–EU cooperation (Euro-Mediterranean Union scenario), iii) a global opening of the southern Mediterranean countries and cooperation with the rest of the Middle East and other developing countries like China (Euro-Mediterranean alliance scenario), and iv) a deterioration in the regional political climate and a failure of cooperation (Euro-Mediterranean under threat scenario). Explicit assumptions on trade integration, infrastructure upgrade, population and governance developments are adopted in each scenario. The simulation results indicate that an infrastructure upgrade and governance improvements in the context of southern Mediterranean–EU cooperation could benefit most of the countries under consideration. The analysis remains important in light of ongoing regional developments and the need to design the best policies to pursue in the aftermath of the Arab spring.

Determinants of Growth and Inflation in Southern Mediterranean Countries. MEDPRO Technical Report No. 10/March 2012

Despite significant economic reforms in many Southern Mediterranean EU neighbour countries, their growth performance has on average been subdued. This study analyses the differences in growth performance and macroeconomic stability across Mediterranean countries, to draw lessons for the future. The main findings are that Southern Mediterranean countries should benefit from closer ties with the EU that result in higher levels of trade and FDI inflows, once the turbulence of the ‘Arab Spring’ is resolved, and from the development of financial markets and infrastructure. They will also benefit in keeping inflation under control, which will depend in great part on their ability to maintain fiscal discipline and sustainable current accounts. One of the main challenges for the region will be to implement structural reforms that can help them absorb a large pool of unemployed without creating upward risks to inflation.

A Strong Europe in a Globalized World: From the Hungarian to the Polish presidency of the Council of the European Union. ACES Working Papers, 2011

On June 17, 2011, the Center for Transatlantic Relations – together with the Center for European Policy Analysis, the Polish Institute of International Affairs in Warsaw, and the Embassies of Hungary and Poland – hosted authors writing on the theme “A Strong Europe in a Globalized World,” and who offered in-depth, substantive reflections about how the United States and Europe can work together more closely in meeting global challenges. Drawing on the agendas of the outgoing and incoming EU Presidencies of the Council of the European Union – Hungary and Poland respectively – authors focused on the importance of a strong US-EU partnership in the face of mounting global challenges, from the current financial and economic crisis through the insecurities of energy markets and the promise of the Arab Spring. Authors explored in depth four key areas of shared interests: A Global Perspective (Transatlantic Partnership in a Globalized World); Achievements and Deliverables of Eastern Partnership; Euro-Atlantic Perspectives for the Balkans; and Common Challenges of Energy Security. Senior Hungarian and Polish government officials, subject matter experts, private sector actors, and think tank scholars participated.

Alone in virtue. The "New Turkish" ideology in Turkey's foreign policy. OSW Point of View Number 49, April 2015

Once the West’s ally, Turkey has been an ever more problematic partner in recent years. The Turkish leadership no longer views the alliance with the European Union and membership in NATO as based on shared values; rather, it is now merely a cherry-picked and shaky community of interests. Turkey is also increasingly alienated politically in the Middle East. In the aftermath of the Arab Spring and the regional developments which followed, Ankara has lost much of the influence it had built in region in previous years. Turkey’s growing international isolation is a consequence of the country ever more fully subordinating its foreign policy to the ideology of the ruling AKP. The world vision offered by that ideology does not square with the diagnoses of Turkey’s partners. The objectives it sets for Turkish foreign policy are incompatible with its partners’ expectations. Moreover, a foreign policy rooted in ideology is less flexible and less capable of adjusting to current international dynamics.

The debates on citizenship in Morocco. Social movements and constitutional reform. EUSpring Working Paper No. 4, 11 August 2015

Introduction. The current debates on citizenship in Morocco are taking place in a political context marked by the events of the Arab Spring. How are political, social, legal, and identity-related dimensions of citizenship formulated in the context of a monarchy that has a long continuity in Moroccan history?

Energy across the Mediterranean: a call for realism. Bruegel Policy Brief ISSUE 2016/03 APRIL 2016

Political instability in the southern Mediterranean countries have highlighted the unsustainability of their economic models. Widespread economic discontent, and in particular very high youth unemployment, underpinned the Arab Spring uprisings. As the refugee crisis shows, this is also Europe’s problem and Euro-Mediterranean economic cooperation needs to be reviewed. Energy is a key part of the cooperation framework.

Determinants of Firm Growth with respect to Exporting and Innovation Activities: Evidence from Egyptian SMEs

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are considered to be the driving engine for employment growth, source of innovation and technological progress. Moreover, the success of small exporters is critical for economic growth and is considered as an important development stage for many SMEs. However, their competitive advantage lies within the firm’s ability to innovate. This thesis contributes to the above literature by examining two main factors believed to promote firm growth namely ‘exporting’ and ‘innovation’ activities. Growing interests on the relationship between exporting, innovation and growth have recently been tackled. However, there remains a gap in literature on the relationship between exporting, innovation and firm growth for SMEs in emerging economies. Previous studies are conducted in developed counties such as UK, Ireland, USA, Germany, and Switzerland, which leaves the gap for those developing countries. Thus, this thesis addresses the gap by examining the importance of innovation and exporting activities in the growth of SMEs in Egypt. It is also the researcher’s intent to recognise the unique contribution of innovation on firm exporting activities covering all sectors. gypt, one of the countries that were tremendously affected by the so-called ‘Arab Spring revolution’, is suffering from slow economic growth, high unemployment and poverty rate. Thus, the government must ensure economic growth and job creation. Programmes to encourage and develop SMEs should be part of inclusive growth strategy. Meanwhile, exporting is regarded as a key factor to help the economy recover from recession and stimulate economic growth. On the other hand, innovation leads to better performance in terms of growth, exporting and productivity. Therefore, SMEs and their exporting and innovation activities should be an integral part of any recovery and growth strategy for the economy. Moreover, Egypt is suffering from the so-called ‘Missing Middle’, which is problematic as medium firms tend to provide better employment growth and productivity. Therefore, more light is to shed on the importance of exporting and innovation in the growth of firms. The research design was quantitative in nature, testing the proposed hypotheses. The study was conducted in 2013 based on questionnaires of 406 Egyptians SMEs. The results of the empirical study suggest that both exporting and innovation activities are important in firm growth. However, the results show that, after controlling for endogeneity, innovation does not affect exporting activities in SMEs.

Determinants of firm growth with repect to exporting and innovation activities:evidence from Egyptian SMEs

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are considered to be the driving engine for employment growth, source of innovation and technological progress. Moreover, the success of small exporters is critical for economic growth and is considered as an important development stage for many SMEs. However, their competitive advantage lies within the firm’s ability to innovate. This thesis contributes to the above literature by examining two main factors believed to promote firm growth namely ‘exporting’ and ‘innovation’ activities. Growing interests on the relationship between exporting, innovation and growth have recently been tackled. However, there remains a gap in literature on the relationship between exporting, innovation and firm growth for SMEs in emerging economies. Previous studies are conducted in developed counties such as UK, Ireland, USA, Germany, and Switzerland, which leaves the gap for those developing countries. Thus, this thesis addresses the gap by examining the importance of innovation and exporting activities in the growth of SMEs in Egypt. It is also the researcher’s intent to recognise the unique contribution of innovation on firm exporting activities covering all sectors. Egypt, one of the countries that were tremendously affected by the so-called ‘Arab Spring revolution’, is suffering from slow economic growth, high unemployment and poverty rate. Thus, the government must ensure economic growth and job creation. Programmes to encourage and develop SMEs should be part of inclusive growth strategy. Meanwhile, exporting is regarded as a key factor to help the economy recover from recession and stimulate economic growth. On the other hand, innovation leads to better performance in terms of growth, exporting and productivity. Therefore, SMEs and their exporting and innovation activities should be an integral part of any recovery and growth strategy for the economy. Moreover, Egypt is suffering from the so-called ‘Missing Middle’, which is problematic as medium firms tend to provide better employment growth and productivity. Therefore, more light is to shed on the importance of exporting and innovation in the growth of firms. The research design was quantitative in nature, testing the proposed hypotheses. The study was conducted in 2013 based on questionnaires of 406 Egyptians SMEs. The results of the empirical study suggest that both exporting and innovation activities are important in firm growth. However, the results show that, after controlling for endogeneity, innovation does not affect exporting activities in SMEs.

Islamist movements at crossroads: the choice between ideology and context-driven approach to politics. Case study on the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan

The aim of the paper is to analyse the ongoing transformation process within the Islamist movements using the example of the moderate Islamic Action Front party in Jordan. The dilemma of participation in the 2010 general elections raised tensions between the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan and its political wing, the Islamic Action Front, and between doves and hawks of the same organizations. Internal debate on the future has started recently among different groups within the Islamist movement in Jordan. The research is based on the author‘s recent field experience in Jordan (April–July 2010, Andrew W. Mellon Fellowship at the American Centre of Oriental Research, Amman, Jordan). The author also conducted research in Syria, Lebanon, Palestine and Egypt, where several interviews were carried out with leading and lower level Islamist politicians. The dynamic changes within Islamic Action Front Party in Jordan and its relation with the regime has been used as reference point. The main question of the research was aa how the changing political and regional context shapes decisions of the Islamist with special attention to the acceptance of democratic values and human rights, political participation, and the meanings of Islamic values in the 21st century, possible cooperation with secular parties/movements/the regime.

Islamist Cyber Networks in Spanish-Speaking Latin America

Despite significant concern among policy, law enforcement and intelligence communities in the United States (U.S.) over the possible spread of radical Islamist thought throughout the world as part of a global jihad movement, there has been little investigation into the growing cyber networks in Latin America that promote strong anti-Semitic and anti-U.S. messages. This paper offers an overview of that network, focusing on the structure of Shi’ite websites that promote not only religious conversion but are also supportive of Iran -- a designated State-sponsor of terrorism – its nuclear program. Hezbollah, and the “Bolivarian revolution” led by Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez and his allies in Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua. There is also a smaller group of Sunni Muslim websites, mostly tied to the legacy organizations of the Muslim Brotherhood. Many of the Shi’ite websites are linked to each other consistently portray Israel as a Nazi State, and the United States as an imperialist war monger. The Palestinian issue is frequently juxtaposed with the anti-imperialist struggle that those states supporting Chávez’ Bolivarian revolution claim to wage against the United States. Some of the Islamist websites claim thousands of new convert, but such claims are difficult to verify. Most of the websites visited touted the conversion of one or two individuals as significant victories and signs of progress, implying that there are few, if any, mass conversions. While conducting this research, no websites directly claiming to be linked to Hezbollah were found, although there numerous sites hosted by that group that were active until around 2006. Several of the inactive links are supportive of Hezbollah as a political party. No websites linked to al Qaeda were found. Yet a substantial Internet network remains operational. Much of the outreach for Shi’ite Muslims, closely tied to Iran, is sponsored on numerous websites across the region, including El Salvador, Chile, Ecuador, Colombia, Mexico and Bolivia. Numerous Facebook forums for discussion are also hosted around Latin America. These links must be viewed in the context of the rapidly expanding diplomatic, intelligence, political and economic ties of Iran in recent years with the self-proclaimed Bolivarian states. Given the sparse literature available and the rich vein of un-mined information on the sites cited as well as others that one could find with additional research, the cyber network of Islamist groups remains one of the least understood or studied facets of their presence in Latin America and the Caribbean. It merits significantly more investigation.

El efecto dominó de las revueltas sociales de 2011 visto desde la prensa de referencia colombiana

Las movilizaciones de 2011, que comenzaron con la Primavera Árabe y se propagaron por el mundo entero, se convirtieron en un fenómeno mediático internacional, pues centraron parte de sus estrategias de acción en alcanzar visibilidad en los medios de comunicación. Este trabajo, producto de una investigación, tuvo como objetivo analizar cómo fue el cubrimiento de las revueltas desde los principales diarios colombianos El Tiempo y El Espectador; conocer el framing y los recursos empleados para transmitir la información. Para ello, se seleccionaron todas las piezas periodísticas referentes a acciones de protesta alrededor del mundo, publicadas desde el 15 de diciembre de 2010 hasta la misma fecha de 2011 y se les aplicó una matriz de análisis de contenido cuantitativo y cualitativo. Los resultados mostraron que el tratamiento dado a la información potenció la visibilidad de las manifestaciones, desde una perspectiva homogénea, presentando movimientos dispares y distantes como un fenómeno global y contagioso que traspasaba fronteras.

A política externa do Qatar enquanto instrumento de projecção internacional

Constituindo-se a política externa qatari como objecto de investigação, esta dissertação propõe-se a efectuar a sua caracterização num período temporal definido entre a independência do Emirado do Qatar e, sensivelmente, até 2011, coincidindo com o início da designada ‘Primavera Árabe’. Assumem-se como objectivos centrais a identificação de alterações ao padrão de comportamento da política externa qatari, bem como a identificação das suas motivações. Para a concretização daquela linha de investigação e análise, serão analisados os casos da intervenção da política externa qatari na Tunísia, Egipto e Líbia, este último com particular relevo, na medida em que se constitui como um marco diferenciador no modus operandi da política externa qatari face à linha que vinha então sendo preconizada por Doha.