Modeling conditional correlations of asset returns : a smooth transition approach

In this paper we propose a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure. The time-varying conditional correlations change smoothly between two extreme states of constant correlations according to a predetermined or exogenous transition variable. An LM–test is derived to test the constancy of correlations and LM- and Wald tests to test the hypothesis of partially constant correlations. Analytical expressions for the test statistics and the required derivatives are provided to make computations feasible. An empirical example based on daily return series of five frequently traded stocks in the S&P 500 stock index completes the paper.

Measuring corruption in public construction projects in China

Corruption has been identified as the greatest obstacle to economic and social development. Public construction projects, in particular, face high corruption risk as public construction sector has been consecutively deemed as the most corrupt one. Despite considerable efforts have been undertaken to measure corruption at a nation level, few focus on the measurement of corruption in construction projects. This paper develops a fuzzy measurement model for the potential corruption in public construction projects in China. Through semi-structured interviews with 14 experts, followed by a questionnaire survey with 188 respondents, 24 measurement items of corruption were identified and further categorized into five constructs. The fuzzy set theory was then adopted to quantify each measurement item, construct and the overall corruption level. This model can facilitate in evaluating, revealing and monitoring corruption in public construction projects. Although this study focuses on measuring corruption in public construction projects in China, similar research methods can be applied in other countries around the world and thus contribute to the global body of knowledge of corruption.

Modelling collision potentials in Port Anchorages: Application of the Navigational Traffic Conflict Technique (NTCT)

Despite the extent of works done on modelling port water collisions, not much research effort has been devoted to modelling collisions at port anchorages. This paper aims to fill this important gap in literature by applying the Navigation Traffic Conflict Technique (NTCT) for measuring the collision potentials in anchorages and for examining the factors contributing to collisions. Grounding on the principles of the NTCT, a collision potential measurement model and a collision potential prediction model were developed. These models were illustrated by using vessel movement data of the anchorages in Singapore port waters. Results showed that the measured collision potentials are in close agreement with those perceived by harbour pilots. Higher collision potentials were found in anchorages attached to shoreline and international fairways, but not at those attached to confined water. Higher operating speeds, larger numbers of isolated danger marks and day conditions were associated with reduction in the collision potentials.

Alternate destinies for survey items destined for the island of misfit toys: An analysis of teachers' perceptions of NAPLAN

This is a methodological paper describing when and how manifest items dropped from a latent construct measurement model (e.g., factor analysis) can be retained for additional analysis. Presented are protocols for assessment for retention in the measurement model, evaluation of dropped items as potential items separate from the latent construct, and post hoc analyses that can be conducted using all retained (manifest or latent) variables. The protocols are then applied to data relating to the impact of the NAPLAN test. The variables examined are teachers’ achievement goal orientations and teachers’ perceptions of the impact of the test on curriculum and pedagogy. It is suggested that five attributes be considered before retaining dropped manifest items for additional analyses. (1) Items can be retained when employed in service of an established or hypothesized theoretical model. (2) Items should only be retained if sufficient variance is present in the data set. (3) Items can be retained when they provide a rational segregation of the data set into subsamples (e.g., a consensus measure). (4) The value of retaining items can be assessed using latent class analysis or latent mean analysis. (5) Items should be retained only when post hoc analyses with these items produced significant and substantive results. These suggested exploratory strategies are presented so that other researchers using survey instruments might explore their data in similar and more innovative ways. Finally, suggestions for future use are provided.

Catholic teachers’ postgraduate qualifications and students’ end of schooling outcomes: A large scale Queensland based comparative study

A key feature of the current era of Australian schooling is the dominance of publically available student, school and teacher performance data. Our paper examines the intersection of data on teachers’ postgraduate qualifications and students’ end of schooling outcomes in 26 Catholic Systemic Secondary Schools and 18 Catholic Independent Secondary Schools throughout the State of Queensland. We introduce and justify taking up a new socially-just measurement model of students’ end of schooling outcomes, called the ‘Tracking and Academic Management Index’, otherwise known as ‘TAMI’. Additional analysis is focused on the outcomes of top-end students vis-à-vis all students who are encouraged to remain in institutionalised education of one form or another for the two final years of senior secondary schooling. These findings of the correlations between Catholic teachers’ postgraduate qualifications and students’ end of schooling outcomes are also compared with teachers’ postgraduate qualifications and students’ end of schooling outcomes across 174 Queensland Government Secondary Schools and 58 Queensland Independent Secondary Schools from the same data collection period. The findings raise important questions about the transference of teachers’ postgraduate qualifications for progressing students’ end of schooling outcomes as well as the performance of Queensland Catholic Systemic Secondary Schools and Queensland Catholic Independent Secondary Schools during a particular era of education.

Perceived quality of e‐health services: A conceptual scale development of e‐health service quality based on the C‐OAR‐SE approach

Purpose Health service quality is an important determinant for health service satisfaction and behavioral intentions. The purpose of this paper is to investigate requirements of e‐health services and to develop a measurement model to analyze the construct of “perceived e‐health service quality.” Design/methodology/approach The paper adapts the C‐OAR‐SE procedure for scale development by Rossiter. The focal aspect is the “physician‐patient relationship” which forms the core dyad in the healthcare service provision. Several in‐depth interviews were conducted in Switzerland; first with six patients (as raters), followed by two experts of the healthcare system (as judges). Based on the results and an extensive literature research, the classification of object and attributes is developed for this model. Findings The construct e‐health service quality can be described as an abstract formative object and is operationalized with 13 items: accessibility, competence, information, usability/user friendliness, security, system integration, trust, individualization, empathy, ethical conduct, degree of performance, reliability, and ability to respond. Research limitations/implications Limitations include the number of interviews with patients and experts as well as critical issues associated with C‐OAR‐SE. More empirical research is needed to confirm the quality indicators of e‐health services. Practical implications Health care providers can utilize the results for the evaluation of their service quality. Practitioners can use the hierarchical structure to measure service quality at different levels. The model provides a diagnostic tool to identify poor and/or excellent performance with regard to the e‐service delivery. Originality/value The paper contributes to knowledge with regard to the measurement of e‐health quality and improves the understanding of how customers evaluate the quality of e‐health services.

Integrating customer orientation, employee compensation and performance management: A conceptual framework

Compensation systems are an essential tool to link corporate goals such as customer orientation with individual and organisational performance. While some authors demonstrate the positive effects of incorporating nonfinancial measures into the compensation system empirically, companies have encountered problems after linking pay to customer satisfaction. We argue that reasons for this can be attributed to the measurement of customer satisfaction as well as to the missing link between customer satisfaction and customer retention and profitability in theses cases. Hence, there is a strong need for the development of an holistic reward and performance measurement model enabling an organisation to identify cause-and-effect relationships when linking rewards to nonfinancial performance measures. We present a conceptual framework of a success chain driven reward system that enables organisations to systematically derive a customer-oriented reward strategy. In the context of performance evaluation, we propose to rely on integrated and multidimensional measurement methods.

A pseudo-dynamical systems approach to a class of inverse problems in engineering

A pseudo-dynamical approach for a class of inverse problems involving static measurements is proposed and explored. Following linearization of the minimizing functional associated with the underlying optimization problem, the new strategy results in a system of linearized ordinary differential equations (ODEs) whose steady-state solutions yield the desired reconstruction. We consider some explicit and implicit schemes for integrating the ODEs and thus establish a deterministic reconstruction strategy without an explicit use of regularization. A stochastic reconstruction strategy is then developed making use of an ensemble Kalman filter wherein these ODEs serve as the measurement model. Finally, we assess the numerical efficacy of the developed tools against a few linear and nonlinear inverse problems of engineering interest.

Determinants of farmer retirement and farm succession in Finland

In the past decade, the Finnish agricultural sector has undergone rapid structural changes. The number of farms has decreased and the average farm size has increased when the number of farms transferred to new entrants has decreased. Part of the structural change in agriculture is manifested in early retirement programmes. In studying farmers exit behaviour in different countries, institutional differences, incentive programmes and constraints are found to matter. In Finland, farmers early retirement programmes were first introduced in 1974 and, during the last ten years, they have been carried out within the European Union framework for these programmes. The early retirement benefits are farmer specific and de-pend on the level of pension insurance the farmer has paid over his active farming years. In order to predict the future development of the agricultural sector, farmers have been frequently asked about their future plans and their plans for succession. However, the plans the farmers made for succession have been found to be time inconsistent. This study estimates the value of farmers stated succession plans in predicting revealed succession decisions. A stated succession plan exists when a farmer answers in a survey questionnaire that the farm is going to be transferred to a new entrant within a five-year period. The succession is revealed when the farm is transferred to a suc-cessor. Stated and revealed behaviour was estimated as a recursive Binomial Probit Model, which accounts for the censoring of the decision variables and controls for a potential correlation between the two equations. The results suggest that the succession plans, as stated by elderly farmers in the questionnaires, do not provide information that is significant and valuable in predicting true, com-pleted successions. Therefore, farmer exit should be analysed based on observed behaviour rather than on stated plans and intentions. As farm retirement plays a crucial role in determining the characteristics of structural change in agriculture, it is important to establish the factors which determine an exit from farming among eld-erly farmers and how off-farm income and income losses affect their exit choices. In this study, the observed choice of pension scheme by elderly farmers was analysed by a bivariate probit model. Despite some variations in significance and the effects of each factor, the ages of the farmer and spouse, the age and number of potential successors, farm size, income loss when retiring and the location of the farm together with the production line were found to be the most important determi-nants of early retirement and the transfer or closure of farms. Recently, the labour status of the spouse has been found to contribute significantly to individual retirement decisions. In this study, the effect of spousal retirement and economic incentives related to the timing of a farming couple s early retirement decision were analysed with a duration model. The results suggest that an expected pension in particular advances farm transfers. It was found that on farms operated by a couple, both early retirement and farm succession took place more often than on farms operated by a single person. However, the existence of a spouse delayed the timing of early retirement. Farming couples were found to co-ordinate their early retirement decisions when they both exit through agricultural retirement programmes, but such a co-ordination did not exist when one of the spouses retired under other pension schemes. Besides changes in the agricultural structure, the share and amount of off-farm income of a farm family s total income has also increased. In the study, the effect of off-farm income on farmers retirement decisions, in addition to other financial factors, was analysed. The unknown parameters were first estimated by a switching-type multivariate probit model and then by the simulated maxi-mum likelihood (SML) method, controlling for farmer specific fixed effects and serial correlation of the errors. The results suggest that elderly farmers off-farm income is a significant determinant in a farmer s choice to exit and close down the farm. However, off-farm income only has a short term effect on structural changes in agriculture since it does not significantly contribute to the timing of farm successions.

Signal tracking approach for phase estimation in digital holographic interferometry

In this research work, we introduce a novel approach for phase estimation from noisy reconstructed interference fields in digital holographic interferometry using an unscented Kalman filter. Unlike conventionally used unwrapping algorithms and piecewise polynomial approximation approaches, this paper proposes, for the first time to the best of our knowledge, a signal tracking approach for phase estimation. The state space model derived in this approach is inspired from the Taylor series expansion of the phase function as the process model, and polar to Cartesian conversion as the measurement model. We have characterized our approach by simulations and validated the performance on experimental data (holograms) recorded under various practical conditions. Our study reveals that the proposed approach, when compared with various phase estimation methods available in the literature, outperforms at lower SNR values (i.e., especially in the range 0-20 dB). It is demonstrated with experimental data as well that the proposed approach is a better choice for estimating rapidly varying phase with high dynamic range and noise. (C) 2014 Optical Society of America

Publicar ou perecer: uma análise críticonormativa das características e dos efeitos dos modelos cientométrico e bibliométrico adotados no Brasil

A presente Tese de Doutorado analisa as características e os efeitos da cientometria e bibliometria adotadas no Brasil. Primeiramente, a fim de contextualizar o tema, faço uma revisão de literatura acerca do processo de mercantilização da educação. Meu objetivo é mostrar a inclinação empresarial das políticas públicas educacionais, especialmente aquelas voltadas para a pós-graduação. Além disso, seleciono e analiso alguns conceitos que ajudam a compreender o presente tema, bem como sustento a inadequação da lógica de economia de mercado como forma de gerir a Academia e a ciência. Na segunda parte da Tese, focalizo os critérios adotados para avaliar a hierarquizar Programas de Pós-Graduação e diferenciar pesquisadores. A tese a ser defendida é que o modelo CAPES de avaliação da pós-graduação está baseado numa norma produtividade de cunho periodicocrático que cria uma forte pressão por publicação de artigos em periódicos acadêmico-científicos, uma vez que eles os produtos privilegiados no modelo de mensuração objetivista em vigor. Produzir/publicar artigos torna-se, portanto, a performance acadêmico-científica por excelência. Isso enseja a criação de um mercado acadêmico-científico e de um mercado de publicações, o que cria um contexto propício para a ocorrência de más condutas acadêmico-científicas

Gaussian Process Regression Networks

We introduce a new regression framework, Gaussian process regression networks (GPRN), which combines the structural properties of Bayesian neural networks with the non-parametric flexibility of Gaussian processes. This model accommodates input dependent signal and noise correlations between multiple response variables, input dependent length-scales and amplitudes, and heavy-tailed predictive distributions. We derive both efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo and variational Bayes inference procedures for this model. We apply GPRN as a multiple output regression and multivariate volatility model, demonstrating substantially improved performance over eight popular multiple output (multi-task) Gaussian process models and three multivariate volatility models on benchmark datasets, including a 1000 dimensional gene expression dataset.

一种支持软件过程控制和改进的主动度量模型

提出了一种支持软件过程控制与改进的主动度量模型 AMM(active measurement model)和度量方法.模型形式化描述了软件过程的目标、特征和度量指标等关键元素以及相互间的关系,给出了确定软件过程度量的原则、方法和步骤.基于该度量模型,软件组织一方面可以依据确定的过程目标,主动导出合适的度量过程;另一方面还可以依据度量的结果,识别过程改进的机会,并主动导出过程改进的方向.为正确的决策和成功的结果提供有效的支持.

旋转机械全息序列相似性匹配故障诊断方法

针对全息诊断分辨率低影响旋转机械故障诊断质量和自动化水平的问题,将时间序列相似性匹配的基本概念和方法引入故障诊断应用中,结合全息诊断信息融合分析旋转机械振动全貌的思想,定义了全息序列及其相似性度量模型,用类时间轴上的多维序列表征转子系统振动全貌,进而利用采用近似三角不等式与B+树结合剪枝策略的全息序列相似性匹配算法实现故障诊断。实验结果表明,该方法能够实现高质量的故障自动分类识别。

一种Stewart结构六维力/力矩传感器参数辨识研究

介绍了一种大量程Stewart结构六维力/力矩传感器系统.建立了传感器力/力矩测量数学模型,构建了基于运动学逆解的优化目标函数.提出了一种新的参数标定法,称作分支轮换标定法.基于所研发的六维力/力矩传感器系统进行了实验研究,实验结果表明分支轮换法可以有效地辨识出传感器的结构参数,提高了测量精度.该方法可用于类似结构的六维力/力矩传感器参数标定.