Risk management and the potential of cattle insurance in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia

This study explores the role of livestock insurance to complement existing risk management strategies adopted by smallholder farmers. Using survey data, first, it provides insights into farmers’ risk perception of livestock farming, in terms of likelihood and severity of risk, attitude to risk and their determinants. Second, it examines farmers’ risk management strategies and their determinants. Third, it investigates farmers’ potential engagement with a hypothetical cattle insurance decision and their intensity of participation. Factor analysis is used to analyse risk sources and risk management, multiple regressions are used to identify the determinants; a Heckman model was used to investigate cattle insurance participation and intensity of participation. The findings show different groups of farmers display different risk attitude in their decision-making related to livestock farming. Production risk (especially livestock diseases) was perceived as the most likely and severe source of risk. Disease control was perceived as the best strategy to manage risk overall. Disease control and feed management were important strategies to mitigate the production risks. Disease control and participation on safety net program were found to be important to counter households’ financial risks. With regard to the hypothetical cattle insurance scheme, 94.38% of households were interested to participate in cattle insurance. Of those households that accepted cattle insurance, 77.38% of the households were willing to pay the benchmark annual premium of 4% of the animal value while for the remaining households this was not affordable. The average number of cattle that farmers were willing to insure was 2.71 at this benchmark. Results revealed that income (log income) and education levels influenced positively and significantly farmers’ participation in cattle insurance and the number of cattle to insure. The findings prompt policy makers to consider livestock insurance as a complement to existing risk management strategies to reduce poverty in the long-run.

Reference groups and product line decisions: An experimental investigation of limited editions and product proliferation

Some luxury goods manufacturers offer limited editions of their products, whereas some others market multiple product lines. Researchers have found that reference groups shape consumer evaluations of these product categories. Yet little empirical research has examined how reference groups affect the product line decisions of firms. Indeed, in a field setting it is quite a challenge to isolate reference group effects from contextual effects and correlated effects. In this paper, we propose a parsimonious model that allows us to study how reference groups influence firm behavior and that lends itself to experimental analysis. With the aid of the model we investigate the behavior of consumers in a laboratory setting where we can focus on the reference group effects after controlling for the contextual and correlated effects. The experimental results show that in the presence of strong reference group effects, limited editions and multiple products can help improve firms' profits. Furthermore, the trends in the purchase decisions of our participants point to the possibility that they are capable of introspecting close to two steps of thinking at the outset of the game and then learning through reinforcement mechanisms. © 2010 INFORMS.

Beta-agonist- and prostaglandin E1-induced translocation of the beta-adrenergic receptor kinase: evidence that the kinase may act on multiple adenylate cyclase-coupled receptors.

beta-Adrenergic receptor kinase (beta-AR kinase) is a cytosolic enzyme that phosphorylates the beta-adrenergic receptor only when it is occupied by an agonist [Benovic, J. Strasser, R. H., Caron, M. G. & Lefkowitz, R. J. (1986) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 83, 2797-2801.] It may be crucially involved in the processes that lead to homologous or agonist-specific desensitization of the receptor. Stimulation of DDT1MF-2 hamster smooth muscle cells or S49 mouse lymphoma cells with a beta-agonist leads to translocation of 80-90% of the beta-AR kinase activity from the cytosol to the plasma membrane. The translocation process is quite rapid, is concurrent with receptor phosphorylation, and precedes receptor desensitization and sequestration. It is also transient, since much of the activity returns to the cytosol as the receptors become sequestered. Stimulation of beta-AR kinase translocation is a receptor-mediated event, since the beta-antagonist propranolol blocks the effect of agonist. In the kin- mutant of the S49 cells (lacks cAMP-dependent protein kinase), prostaglandin E1, which provokes homologous desensitization of its own receptor, is at least as effective as isoproterenol in promoting beta-AR kinase translocation to the plasma membrane. However, in the DDT1MF-2 cells, which contain alpha 1-adrenergic receptors coupled to phosphatidylinositol turnover, the alpha 1-agonist phenylephrine is ineffective. These results suggest that the first step in homologous desensitization of the beta-adrenergic receptor may be an agonist-promoted translocation of beta-AR kinase from cytosol to plasma membrane and that beta-AR kinase may represent a more general adenylate cyclase-coupled receptor kinase that participates in regulating the function of many such receptors.

On the Front Line: frontal zones as priority at-sea conservation areas for mobile marine vertebrates

1.Identifying priority areas for marine vertebrate conservation is complex because species of conservation concern are highly mobile, inhabit dynamic habitats and are difficult to monitor. 2.Many marine vertebrates are known to associate with oceanographic fronts – physical interfaces at the transition between water masses – for foraging and migration, making them important candidate sites for conservation. Here, we review associations between marine vertebrates and fronts and how they vary with scale, regional oceanography and foraging ecology. 3.Accessibility, spatiotemporal predictability and relative productivity of front-associated foraging habitats are key aspects of their ecological importance. Predictable mesoscale (10s–100s km) regions of persistent frontal activity (‘frontal zones’) are particularly significant. 4.Frontal zones are hotspots of overlap between critical habitat and spatially explicit anthropogenic threats, such as the concentration of fisheries activity. As such, they represent tractable conservation units, in which to target measures for threat mitigation. 5.Front mapping via Earth observation (EO) remote sensing facilitates identification and monitoring of these hotspots of vulnerability. Seasonal or climatological products can locate biophysical hotspots, while near-real-time front mapping augments the suite of tools supporting spatially dynamic ocean management. 6.Synthesis and applications. Frontal zones are ecologically important for mobile marine vertebrates. We surmise that relative accessibility, predictability and productivity are key biophysical characteristics of ecologically significant frontal zones in contrasting oceanographic regions. Persistent frontal zones are potential priority conservation areas for multiple marine vertebrate taxa and are easily identifiable through front mapping via EO remote sensing. These insights are useful for marine spatial planning and marine biodiversity conservation, both within Exclusive Economic Zones and in the open oceans.

A survey of molecular line emission towards ultracompact HII regions

We have used the JCMT to survey molecular line emission towards 14 ultracompact HII regions (G5.89, G9.62, G10.30, G10.47, G12.21, G13.87, G29.96, G31.41, G34.26, G43.89, G45.12, G45.45, G45.47, and G75.78). For each source, we observed up to ten 1 GHz bands between 200 and 350 GHz, covering lines of more than 30 species including multiple transitions of CO isotopes, CH3OH, CH3CCH, CH3CN and HCOOCH3, and sulphuretted molecules. The number of transitions detected varied by a factor of 20 between sources; which were chosen following observations of high-excitation ammonia (Cesaroni et al. 1994a) and methyl cyanide (Olmi et al. 1993). In half our sample (the line-poor sources), only (CO)-O-17: (CO)-O-18, SO, (CS)-S-34 and CH3OH were detected. In the line-rich sources, we detected over 150 lines, including high excitation lines of CH3CN, HCOOCH3; C2H5CN, CH3OH, and CH3CCH. We have calculated the physical conditions of the molecular gas. To reproduce the emission from the line-rich sources requires both a hot, dense compact core and an ambient cloud consisting of less dense, cooler gas. The hot cores, which are less than 0.1 pc in size; reach densities of at least 10(8) cm(-3) and temperatures of more than 80 K. The line-poor sources can be modelled without a hot core by a 20-30 K, 10(5) cm(-3) cloud. We find no correlation between the size of the HII region and the current physical conditions in the molecular environment. A comparison with chemical models (Millar et al. 1997) confirms that grain surface chemistry is important in hot cores.

Measurement and modelling of perceived slant in surfaces represented by freely viewed line drawings

Simple pictures under everyday viewing conditions evoke impressions of surfaces oriented in depth. These impressions have been studied by measuring the slants of perceived surfaces, with probes (rotating arrowheads) designed to respect the distinctive character of depicted scenes. Converging arguments indicated that the perceived orientation of the probes was near theoretical values. A series of experiments showed that subjects formed well-defined impressions of depicted surface orientation. The literature suggests that perceived objects might be flattened', but that was not the general rule. Instead, both mean slant and uncertainty fitted models in which slant estimates are derived in a relatively straightforward way from local relations in the picture. Simplifying pictures tended to make orientation estimates less certain, particularly away from the natural anchor points (vertical and horizontal). The shape of the object affected all aspects of the observed-object/percept relationship. Individual differences were large, and suggest that different individuals used different relationships as a basis for their estimates. Overall, data suggest that everyday picture perception is strongly selective and weakly integrative. In particular, depicted slant is estimated by finding a picture feature which will be strongly related to it if the object contains a particular regularity, not by additive integration of evidence from multiple directly and indirectly relevant sources.

FROM LINE-DRAWINGS TO IMPRESSIONS OF 3D OBJECTS - DEVELOPING A MODEL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHAPES THAT PEOPLE SEE

The interpretations people attach to line drawings reflect shape-related processes in human vision. Their divergences from expectations embodied in related machine vision traditions are summarized, and used to suggest how human vision decomposes the task of interpretation. A model called IO implements this idea. It first identifies geometrically regular, local fragments. Initial decisions fix edge orientations, and this information constrains decisions about other properties. Relations between fragments are explored, beginning with weak consistency checks and moving to fuller ones. IO's output captures multiple distinctive characteristics of human performance, and it suggests steady progress towards understanding shape-related visual processes is possible.

Common Ingroups and Complex Identities: Routes to Reducing Bias in Multiple Category Contexts

We tested the hypothesis that evaluative bias in common ingroup contexts versus crossed categorization contexts can be associated with two distinct underlying processes. We reasoned that in common ingroup contexts, self-categorization, but not perceived complexity, would be positively related to intergroup bias. In contrast, in crossed categorization contexts, perceived complexity, but not self-categorization, would be negatively related to intergroup bias. In two studies, and in line with predictions, we found that while self-categorization and intergroup bias were related in common ingroup contexts, this was not the case in crossed categorization contexts. Moreover, we found that perceived category complexity, and not self-categorization, predicted bias in crossed categorization contexts. We discuss the implications of these findings for models of social categorization and intergroup bias.

Vulnerability and multiple deprivation perspectives on economic exclusion in Europe: A latent class analysis

In this paper we address issues relating to vulnerability to economic exclusion and levels of economic exclusion in Europe. We do so by applying latent class models to data from the European Community Household Panel for thirteen countries. This approach allows us to distinguish between vulnerability to economic exclusion and exposure to multiple deprivation at a particular point in time. The results of our analysis confirm that in every country it is possible to distinguish between a vulnerable and a non-vulnerable class. Association between income poverty, life-style deprivation and subjective economic strain is accounted for by allocating individuals to the categories of this latent variable. The size of the vulnerable class varies across countries in line with expectations derived from welfare regime theory. Between class differentiation is weakest in social democratic regimes but otherwise the pattern of differentiation is remarkably similar. The key discriminatory factor is life-style deprivation, followed by income and economic strain. Social class and employment status are powerful predictors of latent class membership in all countries but the strength of these relationships varies across welfare regimes. Individual biography and life events are also related to vulnerability to economic exclusion. However, there is no evidence that they account for any significant part of the socio-economic structuring of vulnerability and no support is found for the hypothesis that social exclusion has come to transcend class boundaries and become a matter of individual biography. However, the extent of socio-economic structuring does vary substantially across welfare regimes. Levels of economic exclusion, in the sense of current exposure to multiple deprivation, also vary systematically by welfare regime and social class. Taking both vulnerability to economic exclusion and levels of exclusion into account suggests that care should be exercised in moving from evidence on the dynamic nature of poverty and economic exclusion to arguments relating to the superiority of selective over universal social policies.

Molecular line emission from a protoplanetary disk irradiated externally by a nearby massive star

Star formation often occurs within or nearby stellar clusters. Irradiation by nearby massive stars can photoevaporate protoplanetary disks around young stars (so-called proplyds) which raises questions regarding the ability of planet formation to take place in these environments. We investigate the two-dimensional physical and chemical structure of a protoplanetary disk surrounding a low-mass (T Tauri) star which is irradiated by a nearby massive O-type star to determine the survivability and observability of molecules in proplyds. Compared with an isolated star-disk system, the gas temperature ranges from a factor of a few (in the disk midplane) to around two orders of magnitude (in the disk surface) higher in the irradiated disk. Although the UV flux in the outer disk, in particular, is several orders of magnitude higher, the surface density of the disk is sufficient for effective shielding of the disk midplane so that the disk remains predominantly molecular in nature. We also find that non-volatile molecules, such as HCN and H2O, are able to freeze out onto dust grains in the disk midplane so that the formation of icy planetesimals, e.g., comets, may also be possible in proplyds. We have calculated the molecular line emission from the disk assuming LTE and determined that multiple transitions of atomic carbon, CO (and isotopologues, 13CO and C18O), HCO+, CN, and HCN may be observable with ALMA, allowing characterization of the gas column density, temperature, and optical depth in proplyds at the distance of Orion (˜400 pc).

Line-driven radiative outflows in luminous quasars

An analysis of ≃19 500 narrow (≲200 km s^-1) CIV λλ1548.2,1550.8 absorbers in ≃34 000 Sloan Digital Sky Survey quasar spectra is presented. The statistics of the number of absorbers as a function of outflow velocity shows that in approximately two-thirds of outflows, with multiple C IV absorbers present, absorbers are line-locked at the 500 km s^-1 velocity separation of the C IV absorber doublet; appearing as 'triplets' in the quasar spectra. Line-locking is an observational signature of radiative line-driving in outflowing material, where the successive shielding of 'clouds' of material in the outflow locks the clouds together in outflow velocity. Line-locked absorbers are seen in both broad absorption line (BAL) quasars and non-BAL quasars with comparable frequencies and with velocities out to at least 20 000 km s^-1. There are no detectable differences in the absorber properties and the dust content of single C IV doublets and line-locked C IV doublets. The gas associated with both single and line-locked CIV absorption systems includes material with a wide range of ionization potential (14-138 eV). Both single and line-locked CIV absorber systems show strong systematic trends in their ionization as a function of outflow velocity, with ionization decreasing rapidly with increasing outflow velocity. Initial simulations, employing CLOUDY, demonstrate that a rich spectrum of line-locked signals at various velocities may be expected due to significant opacities from resonance lines of Li-, He- and H-like ions of O, C and N, along with contributions from He II and HI resonance lines. The simulations confirm that line-driving can be the dominant acceleration mechanism for clouds with N(H I) ≃ 10¹⁹ cm^-2.

Field test of multiple 1/10 scale tidal turbines in steady flows

Queen's University Belfast and Wave Barrier Ltd have developed a tidal testing platform to test hydrokinetic turbines at medium scale. Multiple turbines can be pushed through still water conditions, in steady-state pushing tests. Experiments were conducted to evaluate the interactions between two identical, mono-strut, horizontal axis tidal turbines (HATTs) of 1.5 m diameter (D) rotor. Their relative performance when located individually, in-plane and in-line are investigated. The data shows a high consistency in the power curves at different flow speeds, which indicates high repeatability in this Reynolds range. For an individual turbine, there is no performance difference when the rotor is mounted either upstream or downstream of the supporting structure. When placed in-plane, the turbines have no adverse effect on one another. When spaced in-line with 2D separation, there is a 63% reduction in the performance of the downstream turbine. At 6D downstream this performance reduction is still 59%, indicating some wake recovery between 2D and 6D, though the influence from the upstream rotor persists to at least 6D downstream of the first device. In contrast the performance of the downstream turbine when placed at 1.5D offset of the upstream device at 6D downstream is approximately recovered to the individual turbine performance.

Prevalence of germ-line mutations in p16, p19ARF, and CDK4 in familial melanoma:analysis of a clinic-based population

Five to ten percent of individuals with melanoma have another affected family member, suggesting familial predisposition. Germ-line mutations in the cyclin-dependent kinase (CDK) inhibitor p16 have been reported in a subset of melanoma pedigrees, but their prevalence is unknown in more common cases of familial melanoma that do not involve large families with multiple affected members. We screened for germ-line mutations in p16 and in two other candidate melanoma genes, p19ARF and CDK4, in 33 consecutive patients treated for melanoma; these patients had at least one affected first or second degree relative (28 independent families). Five independent, definitive p16 mutations were detected (18%, 95% confidence interval: 6%, 37%), including one nonsense, one disease-associated missense, and three small deletions. No mutations were detected in CDK4. Disease-associated mutations in p19ARF, whose transcript is derived in part from an alternative codon reading frame of p16, were only detected in patients who also had mutations inactivating p16. We conclude that germ-line p16 mutations are present in a significant fraction of individuals who have melanoma and a positive family history.

Pharmacogenetic angiogenesis profiling for first-line Bevacizumab plus oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer

PURPOSE: There is substantial germline genetic variability within angiogenesis pathway genes, thereby causing interindividual differences in angiogenic capacity and resistance to antiangiogenesis therapy. We investigated germline polymorphisms in genes involved in VEGF-dependent and -independent angiogenesis pathways to predict clinical outcome and tumor response in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients treated with bevacizumab and oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: A total of 132 patients treated with first-line bevacizumab and FOLFOX or XELOX were included in this study. Genomic DNA was isolated from whole-blood samples by PCR-RFLP or direct DNA sequencing. The endpoints of the study were progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and response rate (RR).

RESULTS: The minor alleles of EGF rs444903 A>G and IGF-1 rs6220 A>G were associated with increased OS and remained significant in multivariate Cox regression analysis (HR: 0.52; 95% CI: 0.31-0.87; adjusted P = 0.012 and HR: 0.60; 95% CI: 0.36-0.99; adjusted P = 0.046, respectively). The minor allele of HIF1α rs11549465 C>T was significantly associated with increased PFS but lost its significance in multivariate analysis. CXCR1 rs2234671 G>C, CXCR2 rs2230054 T>C, EGFR rs2227983 G>A, and VEGFR-2 rs2305948 C>T predicted tumor response, with CXCR1 rs2234671 G>C remaining significant in multiple testing (P(act) = 0.003).

CONCLUSION: In this study, we identified common germline variants in VEGF-dependent and -independent angiogenesis genes predicting clinical outcome and tumor response in patients with mCRC receiving first-line bevacizumab and oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy.

Self-consistent modelling of line-driven hot-star winds with Monte Carlo radiation hydrodynamics

Radiative pressure exerted by line interactions is a prominent driver of outflows in astrophysical systems, being at work in the outflows emerging from hot stars or from the accretion discs of cataclysmic variables, massive young stars and active galactic nuclei. In this work, a new radiation hydrodynamical approach to model line-driven hot-star winds is presented. By coupling a Monte Carlo radiative transfer scheme with a finite volume fluid dynamical method, line-driven mass outflows may be modelled self-consistently, benefiting from the advantages of Monte Carlo techniques in treating multiline effects, such as multiple scatterings, and in dealing with arbitrary multidimensional configurations. In this work, we introduce our approach in detail by highlighting the key numerical techniques and verifying their operation in a number of simplified applications, specifically in a series of self-consistent, one-dimensional, Sobolev-type, hot-star wind calculations. The utility and accuracy of our approach are demonstrated by comparing the obtained results with the predictions of various formulations of the so-called CAK theory and by confronting the calculations with modern sophisticated techniques of predicting the wind structure. Using these calculations, we also point out some useful diagnostic capabilities our approach provides. Finally, we discuss some of the current limitations of our method, some possible extensions and potential future applications.