Are Idiosyncratic Skewness and Idiosyncratic Kurtosis Priced?

This thesis investigates the pricing effects of idiosyncratic moments. We document that idiosyncratic moments, namely idiosyncratic skewness and idiosyncratic kurtosis vary over time. If a factor/characteristic is priced, it must show minimum variation to be correlated with stock returns. Moreover, we can identify two structural breaks in the time series of idiosyncratic kurtosis. Using a sample of US stocks traded on NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ markets from January 1970 to December 2013, we run Fama-MacBeth test at the individual stock level. We document a negative and significant pricing effect of idiosyncratic skewness, consistent with the finding of Boyer et al. (2010). We also report that neither idiosyncratic volatility nor idiosyncratic kurtosis are consistently priced. We run robustness tests using different model specifications and period sub-samples. Our results are robust to the different factors and characteristics usually included in the Fama-MacBeth pricing tests. We also split first our sample using endogenously determined structural breaks. Second, we divide our sample into three equal sub-periods. The results are consistent with our main findings suggesting that expected returns of individual stocks are explained by idiosyncratic skewness. Both idiosyncratic volatility and idiosyncratic kurtosis are irrelevant to asset prices at the individual stock level. As an alternative method, we run Fama-MacBeth tests at the portfolio level. We find that idiosyncratic skewness is not significantly related to returns on idiosyncratic skewness-sorted portfolios. However, it is significant when tested against idiosyncratic kurtosis sorted portfolios.

Trois essais en économie des ressources naturelles

Cette thèse est composée de trois articles en économie des ressources naturelles non-renouvelables. Nous considérons tour à tour les questions suivantes : le prix in-situ des ressources naturelles non-renouvelables ; le taux d’extraction optimal et le prix des res- sources non-renouvelables et durables. Dans le premier article, nous estimons le prix in-situ des ressources naturelles non-renouvelables en utilisant les données sur le coût moyen d’extraction pour obtenir une approximation du coût marginal. En utilisant la Méthode des Moments Généralisés, une dynamique du prix de marché derivée des conditions d’optimalité du modèle d’Hotelling est estimée avec des données de panel de 14 ressources naturelles non-renouvelables. Nous trouvons des résultats qui tendent à soutenir le modèle. Premièrement, le modèle d’Hotelling exhibe un bon pouvoir explicatif du prix de marché observé. Deuxièmement, bien que le prix estimé présente un changement structurel dans le temps, ceci semble n’avoir aucun impact significatif sur le pouvoir explicatif du modèle. Troisièmement, on ne peut pas rejeter l’hypothèse que le coût marginal d’extraction puisse être approximé par les données sur le coût moyen. Quatrièmement, le prix in-situ estimé en prenant en compte les changements structurels décroît ou exhibe une forme en U inversé dans le temps et semble être corrélé positivement avec le prix de marché. Cinquièmement, pour neuf des quatorze ressources, la différence entre le prix in-situ estimé avec changements structurels et celui estimé en négligeant les changements structurels est un processus de moyenne nulle. Dans le deuxième article, nous testons l’existence d’un équilibre dans lequel le taux d’extraction optimal des ressources non-renouvelables est linéaire par rapport au stock de ressource en terre. Tout d’abord, nous considérons un modèle d’Hotelling avec une fonction de demande variant dans le temps caractérisée par une élasticité prix constante et une fonction de coût d’extraction variant dans le temps caractérisée par des élasticités constantes par rapport au taux d’extraction et au stock de ressource. Ensuite, nous mon- trons qu’il existe un équilibre dans lequel le taux d’extraction optimal est proportionnel au stock de ressource si et seulement si le taux d’actualisation et les paramètres des fonctions de demande et de coût d’extraction satisfont une relation bien précise. Enfin, nous utilisons les données de panel de quatorze ressources non-renouvelables pour vérifier empiriquement cette relation. Dans le cas où les paramètres du modèle sont supposés invariants dans le temps, nous trouvons qu’on ne peut rejeter la relation que pour six des quatorze ressources. Cependant, ce résultat change lorsque nous prenons en compte le changement structurel dans le temps des prix des ressources. En fait, dans ce cas nous trouvons que la relation est rejetée pour toutes les quatorze ressources. Dans le troisième article, nous étudions l’évolution du prix d’une ressource naturelle non-renouvelable dans le cas où cette ressource est durable, c’est-à-dire qu’une fois extraite elle devient un actif productif détenu hors terre. On emprunte à la théorie de la détermination du prix des actifs pour ce faire. Le choix de portefeuille porte alors sur les actifs suivant : un stock de ressource non-renouvelable détenu en terre, qui ne procure aucun service productif ; un stock de ressource détenu hors terre, qui procure un flux de services productifs ; un stock d’un bien composite, qui peut être détenu soit sous forme de capital productif, soit sous forme d’une obligation dont le rendement est donné. Les productivités du secteur de production du bien composite et du secteur de l’extraction de la ressource évoluent de façon stochastique. On montre que la prédiction que l’on peut tirer quant au sentier de prix de la ressource diffère considérablement de celle qui découle de la règle d’Hotelling élémentaire et qu’aucune prédiction non ambiguë quant au comportement du sentier de prix ne peut être obtenue de façon analytique.

Sostenibilidad fiscal: una aproximación con datos panel para 8 países Latinoaméricanos

Este documento examina la hipótesis de sostenibilidad fiscal para 8 países de Latinoamérica. A partir de un modelo de datos panel, se determina si los ingresos y gasto primario de los Gobiernos entre 1960 - 2009 están cointegrados, es decir, si son sostenibles a largo plazo. Para esto, se utilizaron pruebas de raíz unitaria y cointegración de segunda generación con datos panel macroeconómicos, lo que permite tener en cuenta la dependencia cruzada entre los países, así como los posibles quiebres estructurales en la relación que estén determinados de manera endógena; en particular, se usan la prueba de estacionariedad de Hadri y Rao (2008) y la prueba de cointegración de Westerlund (2006). Como resultado del análisis se encontró evidencia empírica de que en el período bajo estudio el déficit primario en los 8 países latinoamericanos es sostenible pero en sentido débil.

Commodity futures prices: more evidence on forecast power, risk premia and the theory of storage

In this paper, we examine the temporal stability of the evidence for two commodity futures pricing theories. We investigate whether the forecast power of commodity futures can be attributed to the extent to which they exhibit seasonality and we also consider whether there are time varying parameters or structural breaks in these pricing relationships. Compared to previous studies, we find stronger evidence of seasonality in the basis, which supports the theory of storage. The power of the basis to forecast subsequent price changes is also strengthened, while results on the presence of a risk premium are inconclusive. In addition, we show that the forecasting power of commodity futures cannot be attributed to the extent to which they exhibit seasonality. We find that in most cases where structural breaks occur, only changes in the intercepts and not the slopes are detected, illustrating that the forecast power of the basis is stable over different economic environments.

Medieval foreign exchange: a time series analysis

This chapter applies rigorous statistical analysis to existing datasets of medieval exchange rates quoted in merchants’ letters sent from Barcelona, Bruges and Venice between 1380 and 1310, which survive in the archive of Francesco di Marco Datini of Prato. First, it tests the exchange rates for stationarity. Second, it uses regression analysis to examine the seasonality of exchange rates at the three financial centres and compares them against contemporary descriptions by the merchant Giovanni di Antonio da Uzzano. Third, it tests for structural breaks in the exchange rate series.

Are mortgage lenders guilty of the housing bubble? A UK perspective

Existing theoretical models of house prices and credit rely on continuous rationality of consumers, an assumption that has been frequently questioned in recent years. Meanwhile, empirical investigations of the relationship between prices and credit are often based on national-level data, which is then tested for structural breaks and asymmetric responses, usually with subsamples. Earlier author argues that local markets are structurally different from one another and so the coefficients of any estimated housing market model should vary from region to region. We investigate differences in the price–credit relationship for 12 regions of the UK. Markov-switching is introduced to capture asymmetric market behaviours and turning points. Results show that credit abundance had a large impact on house prices in Greater London and nearby regions alongside a strong positive feedback effect from past house price movements. This impact is even larger in Greater London and the South East of England when house prices are falling, which are the only instances where the credit effect is more prominent than the positive feedback effect. A strong positive feedback effect from past lending activity is also present in the loan dynamics. Furthermore, bubble probabilities extracted using a discrete Kalman filter neatly capture market turning points.

Regulatory Change v's volume of trade effects in HSIF and HSI volatility

In an earlier paper we adopted a BEKK-GARCH framework and employed a systematic approach to examine structural breaks in the HSIF and HSI volatility. Switching dummy variables were included and tested in the variance equations to check for any structural changes in the autoregressive volatility structure due to the events that have taken place in the Hong Kong market. A Bi-variate GARCH model with 3 switching points was found to be superior as it captured the potential structural changes in return volatilities. Abolishment of the uptick rule, increase of initial margins for the HSIF and electronic trading of HSIF were found to have significant impact on the volatility structure of HSIF and HSI. In this paper we include measures of daily trading volume from both markets in the estimation. Likelihood ratio tests indicate the switching dummy variables become insignificant and the GARCH effects diminish but remain significant.

Mean reversion in stock prices: new evidence from panel unit root tests

Purpose – There are several studies that investigate evidence for mean reversion in stock prices. However, there is no consensus as to whether stock prices are mean reverting or random walk (unit root) processes. The goal of this paper is to re-examine mean reversion in stock prices.
Design/methodology/approach – The authors use five different panel unit root tests, namely the Im, Pesaran and Shin t-bar test statistic, the Levin and Lin test, the Im, Lee, and Tieslau Lagrangian multiplier test statistic, the seemingly unrelated regression test, and the multivariate augmented Dickey Fuller test advocated by Taylor and Sarno.
Findings – The main finding is that there is no mean reversion of stock prices, consistent with the efficient market hypothesis.
Research limitations/implications – One issue not considered by this study is the role of structural breaks. It may be the case that the efficient market hypothesis is contingent on structural breaks in stock prices. Future studies should model structural breaks.
Practical implications – The findings have implications for econometric modelling, in particular forecasting.
Originality/value – This paper adds to the scarce literature on the mean reverting property of stock prices based on panel data; thus, it should be useful for researchers.

Are oil shocks permanent or temporary? panel data evidence from crude oil and NGL production in 60 countries

This paper examines the unit root properties of crude oil production for 60 countries employing a range of panel data unit root tests for the period 1971 to 2003. The study first employs a number of panel data tests that do not accommodate structural breaks and then proceeds to apply the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) panel unit root test with one structural break. The results of the panel data tests without a structural break are inconclusive with at best mixed support for joint stationarity. The findings from the LM panel unit root test with a structural break, however, are conclusive, suggesting that for a world panel and smaller regional-based panels, crude oil and NGL production are jointly stationary.

Are shocks to real effective exchange rates permanent or transitory? evidence from Pacific Island countries

In this article, we consider the stability of the real effective exchange rates for four Pacific Island countries using the Lee and Strazicich (2003a, b) unit root test, which allows one to incorporate at most two structural breaks in the data series. Our main finding is that for Papua New Guinea and Samoa, exchange rates are stable, implying that shocks will have a transitory effect on real effective exchange rates, while for Fiji and the Solomon Islands we find exchange rates to be unstable, implying that shocks will have a permanent effect on real effective exchange rates.

Modelling regulatory change V's volume of trading effects in HSIF and HSI volatility

In an earlier paper, we adopted a bi-variate BEKK–GARCH framework and employed a systematic approach to examine structural breaks in the Hang Seng Index and Index Futures market volatility. Switching dummy variables were included and tested in the variance equations to check for any structural changes in the autoregressive volatility structure due to the events that have taken place in the Hong Kong market surrounding the Asian markets crisis. In this paper, we include measures of daily trading volume from both markets in the estimation. Likelihood ratio tests indicate the switching dummy variables become insignificant and the GARCH effects diminish but remain significant. There is some evidence that the Sequential Arrival of Information Model (SIM) provides a platform to explain these market induced effects when volume of trade is accounted for.

Are bilateral real exchange rates stationary? Evidence from Lagrange multiplier unit root tests for India

The paper examines the stationarity of India’s real exchange rate vis-a` -vis 16 of its major trading partner countries for the period 1960–2000. Application of the conventional ADF unit root test, the Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root test with one structural break, and the LM unit root test with two structural breaks provides evidence that India’s exchange rate vis-a` -vis 15 out of 16 countries is stationary, implying support for purchasing power parity.

Are Australia's tourism markets converging?

In this paper we make an important contribution towards understanding Australia's tourism industry by examining whether or not Australia's tourism markets are converging. We define convergence as the reduction in tourist arrivals' differential, which is calculated as the difference between total visitor arrivals to a country and visitor arrivals from a particular tourist source market. We analyze Australia's thirteen major tourist source markets using monthly data over the period January 1991 to September 2003. To test for convergence, we use the univariate and panel Lagrange multiplier (LM) tests. Our main finding is that when we allow for two structural breaks in the data series, both univariate and panel LM tests provide strong evidence for convergence of Australia's tourism markets. This implies that policies aimed at attracting visitor arrivals from any one of Australia's thirteen tourist source markets will boost the volume of tourists coming into the country.

Are G7 per capita real GDP levels non-stationary, 1870–2001?

In this paper we examine whether or not G7 per capita income can be classified as a stationary process using data for over a century. The unit root null hypothesis is tested using the recently developed Lagrange multiplier test which allows for at most two structural breaks. We are able to reject the unit root null hypothesis for all the countries at the 5 percent level or better, except for Italy and Germany.