Impacto de propostas de redução de tarifas em bens não agrícolas (NAMA)

O objetivo deste estudo é avaliar, por meio de um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável, multi-setorial e multi-regional, os impactos de uma redução das tarifas dos bens não agrícolas sobre a economia brasileira, a partir da Fórmula Suíça, com diferentes coeficientes. O modelo de equilíbrio geral utilizado é o Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) e os cortes de tarifas foram estimados a partir de dados do MAcMap. Além dos impactos macroeconômicos e setoriais, testou-se a sensibilidade do modelo ao aumento das elasticidades de Armington e à implementação de liberalização tarifária agrícola.

Sobrevivência e tamanho populacional do Tiê-preto Tachyphonus Rufus (aves: thraupidae) em fragmento de restinga no extremo Norte da Mata Atlântica

For a long time, we believed in the pattern that tropical and south hemisphere species have high survival. Nowadays results began to contradict this pattern, indicating the need for further studies. Despite the advanced state of the study of bird population parameters, little is known about their variation throughout the year and the factors affecting them. Reproduction, for example, is one factor that may alter adult survival rates, because during this process the breeding pair allocates resources to maintain itself to maintain offspring, making itself more susceptible to diseases and predation. The aim of this study was to estimate survival and population size of a Central and South America passerine, Tachyphonus rufus (Boddaert, 1783), testing hypotheses about the factors that define these parameters. We performed data collection between Nov/2010 and ago/2012 in 12 ha plot, in a fragment of Atlantic Forest in northeastern Brazil. We used capture-mark-recapture methods to generate estimates using Closed Design Robust model in the program MARK. We generated Multi-state models to test some assumptions inherent to Closed Robust Design. The influence of co-variables (time, rain and reproductive cycle) and the effect of transient individuals were measured. Capture, recapture and apparent survival parameters were defined by reproductive cycle, while temporary dispersal was influence by rain. The estimates showed a higher apparent survival during the non-breeding period (92% ± 1%) than during breeding (40% ± 9%), revealing a cost of reproduction and suggesting a trade-off between surviving and reproducing. The low annual survival observed (34%) did not corroborate the pattern of high rates expected for a tropical bird. The largest population size was estimated to be 56 individuals in Nov/11, explained by high recruitment of juveniles, while the lowest observed in May/12: 10 individuals, probably as a result of massive influx of competitor species. Results from this study add to the growing literature on life history of Neotropical species. We encourage studies like this especially in Brazil, where there are few information, and suggest that covariates related to habitat quality and environmental changes should be tested, so that we can generate increasingly reliable models

Gauging U(1) symmetries and the number of right-handed neutrinos

In this Letter we consider that assuming: (a) that the only left-handed neutral fermions are the active neutrinos, (b) that B - L is a gauge symmetry, and (c) that the L assignment is restricted to the integer numbers, the anomaly cancellation imply that at least three right-handed neutrinos must be added to the minimal representation content of the electroweak standard model. However, two types of models arise: (i) the usual one where each of the three identical right-handed neutrinos has total lepton number L = 1: (ii) and the other one in which two of them carry L = 4 while the third one carries L = -5. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Otimização multiobjetivo no planejamento agregado da produção e na cogeração de energia elétrica de usina do setor sucroenergético

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Mecânica - FEG

Planejamento de sistemas de distribuição de energia elétrica de média tensão através de um algoritmo de busca dispersa

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Estudo genômico da produção de leite e seus constituintes em bovinos da raça Guzerá

Pós-graduação em Genética e Melhoramento Animal - FCAV

Impact of treatment characteristics on response of different breast cancer phenotypes: pooled analysis of the German neo-adjuvant chemotherapy trials

Pathological complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant treatment correlates with outcome in breast cancer. We determined whether characteristics of neoadjuvant therapy are associated with pCR. We used multi-level models, which accounted for heterogeneity in pCR across trials and trial arms, to analyze individual patient data from 3332 women included in 7 German neoadjuvant trials with uniform protocols. PCR was associated with an increase in number of chemotherapy cycles (odds ratio [OR] 1.2 for every two additional cycles; P = 0.009), with higher cumulative anthracycline doses (OR 1.6; P = 0.002), higher cumulative taxane doses (OR 1.6; P = 0.009), and with capecitabine containing regimens (OR 1.62; P = 0.022). Association of pCR with increase in number of cycles appeared more pronounced in hormone receptor (HR)-positive tumors (OR 1.35) than in HR-negative tumors (OR 1.04; P for interaction = 0.046). Effect of anthracycline dose was particularly pronounced in HER2-negative tumors (OR 1.61), compared to HER2-positive tumors (OR 0.83; P for interaction = 0.14). Simultaneous trastuzumab treatment in HER2-positive tumors increased odds of pCR 3.2-fold (P < 0.001). No association of pCR and number of trastuzumab cycles was found (OR 1.20, P = 0.39). Dosing characteristics appear important for successful treatment of breast cancer. Longer treatment, higher cumulative doses of anthracyclines and taxanes, and the addition of capecitabine and trastuzumab are associated with better response. Tailoring according to breast cancer phenotype might be possible: longer treatment in HR-positive tumors, higher cumulative anthracycline doses for HER2-negative tumors, shorter treatment at higher cumulative doses for triple-negative tumors, and limited number of preoperative trastuzumab cycles in HER2-positive tumors.

Sequential Quantitative Trait Locus Mapping in Experimental Crosses

The etiology of complex diseases is heterogeneous. The presence of risk alleles in one or more genetic loci affects the function of a variety of intermediate biological pathways, resulting in the overt expression of disease. Hence, there is an increasing focus on identifying the genetic basis of disease by sytematically studying phenotypic traits pertaining to the underlying biological functions. In this paper we focus on identifying genetic loci linked to quantitative phenotypic traits in experimental crosses. Such genetic mapping methods often use a one stage design by genotyping all the markers of interest on the available subjects. A genome scan based on single locus or multi-locus models is used to identify the putative loci. Since the number of quantitative trait loci (QTLs) is very likely to be small relative to the number of markers genotyped, a one-stage selective genotyping approach is commonly used to reduce the genotyping burden, whereby markers are genotyped solely on individuals with extreme trait values. This approach is powerful in the presence of a single quantitative trait locus (QTL) but may result in substantial loss of information in the presence of multiple QTLs. Here we investigate the efficiency of sequential two stage designs to identify QTLs in experimental populations. Our investigations for backcross and F2 crosses suggest that genotyping all the markers on 60% of the subjects in Stage 1 and genotyping the chromosomes significant at 20% level using additional subjects in Stage 2 and testing using all the subjects provides an efficient approach to identify the QTLs and utilizes only 70% of the genotyping burden relative to a one stage design, regardless of the heritability and genotyping density. Complex traits are a consequence of multiple QTLs conferring main effects as well as epistatic interactions. We propose a two-stage analytic approach where a single-locus genome scan is conducted in Stage 1 to identify promising chromosomes, and interactions are examined using the loci on these chromosomes in Stage 2. We examine settings under which the two-stage analytic approach provides sufficient power to detect the putative QTLs.

Individual and structural factors of member commitment in sports clubs

This article analyses the conditions influencing the commitment of members of sports clubs. It focuses not only on individual characteristics of members, but also on the corresponding structural conditions of sports clubs related to the individual decision to quit or continue their membership. The influences of both the individual and context levels on the commitment of members are estimated in different multi-level models. Results of these multi-level analyses indicate that commitment of members is not just an outcome of individual characteristics such as strong commitment to the club, positively perceived communication and cooperation, satisfaction with sports clubsʼ offers, or voluntary engagement. It is also influenced by club-specific structural conditions: commitment is more probable in rural sports clubs, and clubs who explicitly support sociability, whereas success-oriented sporting goals in clubs have a destabilizing effect.

Volunteering in sport clubs

Volunteers are the most important resource for non-profit sport clubs seeking to bolster their viability (e.g. sporting programs). Although many people do voluntary work in sport clubs, stable voluntary engagement can no longer be granted. This difficulty is confirmed by existing research across various European countries. From a club management point of view, a detailed understanding of how to attract volunteers and retain them in the long term is becoming a high priority. The purpose of this study is (1) to analyse the influence of individual characteristics and corresponding organisational conditions on volunteering in sports clubs as well as (2) to examine the decision-making processes in relation to implement effective strategies for recruiting volunteers. For the first perspective a multi-level framework for the investigation of the factors of voluntary engagement in sports clubs is developed. The individual and context factors are estimated in different multi-level models based on a sample of n = 1,434 sport club members from 36 sport clubs in Switzerland. Results indicate that volunteering is not just an outcome of individual characteristics such as lower workloads, higher income, children belonging to the sport club, longer club memberships, or a strong commitment to the club. It is also influenced by club-specific structural conditions; volunteering is more probable in rural sports clubs whereas growth-oriented goals in clubs have a destabilising effect. Concerning decision-making processes an in-depth analysis of recruitment practices for volunteers was conducted in nine selected sport clubs (case study design) based on the garbage can model. Results show that the decision-making processes are generally characterised by a reactive approach in which dominant actors try to handle personnel problems of recruitment in the administration and sport domains through routine formal committee work and informal networks. In addition, it proved possible to develop a typology that deliver an overview of different decision-making practices in terms of the specific interplay of the relevant components of process control (top-down vs. bottom-up) and problem processing (situational vs. systematic). Based on the findings some recommendations for volunteer management in sport clubs are worked out.

Does the (structural) context matter? Analysing individual and structural factors of members’ commitment to sports clubs

Introduction: Over the last decades, Swiss sports clubs have lost their "monopoly" in the market for sports-related services and increasingly are in competition with other sports providers. For many sport clubs long-term membership cannot be seen as a matter of course. Current research on sports clubs in Switzerland – as well as for other European countries – confirms the increasing difficulties in achieving long-term member commitment. Looking at recent findings of the Swiss sport clubs report (Lamprecht, Fischer & Stamm, 2012), it can be noted, that a decrease in memberships does not equally affect all clubs. There are sports clubs – because of their specific situational and structural conditions – that have few problems with member fluctuation, while other clubs show considerable declines in membership. Therefore, a clear understanding of individual and structural factors that trigger and sustain member commitment would help sports clubs to tackle this problem more effectively. This situation poses the question: What are the individual and structural determinants that influence the tendency to continue or to quit the membership? Methods: Existing research has extensively investigated the drivers of members’ commitment at an individual level. As commitment of members usually occurs within an organizational context, the characteristics of the organisation should be also considered. However, this context has been largely neglected in current research. This presentation addresses both the individual characteristics of members and the corresponding structural conditions of sports clubs resulting in a multi-level framework for the investigation of the factors of members’ commitment in sports clubs. The multilevel analysis grant a adequate handling of hierarchically structured data (e.g., Hox, 2002). The influences of both the individual and context level on the stability of memberships are estimated in multi-level models based on a sample of n = 1,434 sport club members from 36 sports clubs. Results: Results of these multi-level analyses indicate that commitment of members is not just an outcome of individual characteristics, such as strong identification with the club, positively perceived communication and cooperation, satisfaction with sports clubs’ offers, or voluntary engagement. It is also influenced by club-specific structural conditions: stable memberships are more probable in rural sports clubs, and in clubs that explicitly support sociability, whereas sporting-success oriented goals in clubs have a destabilizing effect. Discussion/Conclusion: The proposed multi-level framework and the multi-level analysis can open new perspectives for research concerning commitment of members to sports clubs and other topics and problems of sport organisation research, especially in assisting to understand individual behavior within organizational contexts. References: Hox, J. J. (2002). Multilevel analysis: Techniques and applications. Mahwah: Lawrence Erlbaum. Lamprecht, M., Fischer, A., & Stamm, H.-P. (2012). Die Schweizer Sportvereine – Strukturen, Leistungen, Herausforderungen. Zurich: Seismo.

Efficacy of motivational enhancement therapy on alcohol use disorders in patients with chronic hepatitis C: a randomized controlled trial

AIMS: To determine the efficacy of motivational enhancement therapy (MET) on alcohol use in patients with the hepatitis C virus (HCV) and an alcohol use disorder (AUD). DESIGN: Randomized, single-blind, controlled trial comparing MET to a control education condition with 6-month follow-up. SETTING: Patients were recruited from hepatitis clinics at the Minneapolis, Minnesota and Portland, Oregon Veterans Affairs Health Care Systems, USA. PARTICIPANTS AND INTERVENTION: Patients with HCV, an AUD and continued alcohol use (n = 139) were randomized to receive either MET (n = 70) or a control education condition (n = 69) over 3 months. MEASUREMENTS: Data were self-reported percentage of days abstinent from alcohol and number of standard alcohol drinks per week 6 months after randomization. FINDINGS: At baseline, subjects in MET had 34.98% days abstinent, which increased to 73.15% at 6 months compared to 34.63 and 59.49% for the control condition. Multi-level models examined changes in alcohol consumption between MET and control groups. Results showed a significant increase in percentage of days abstinent overall (F(1120.4)  = 28.04, P < 0.001) and a significant group × time effect (F(1119.9)  = 5.23, P = 0.024) with the MET group showing a greater increase in percentage of days abstinent at 6 months compared with the education control condition. There were no significant differences between groups for drinks per week. The effect size of the MET intervention was moderate (0.45) for percentage of days abstinent. CONCLUSION: Motivational enhancement therapy (MET) appears to increase the percentage of days abstinent in patients with chronic hepatitis C, alcohol use disorders and ongoing alcohol use. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Development and voluntarism in football clubs

Volunteers are still the most important resource for amateur football clubs. However, stable voluntary engagement can no longer be granted. This difficulty is confirmed by existing research across various European countries. From a club management point of view, a detailed understanding of how to attract volunteers and retain them is becoming a high priority. The purpose of this study is (1) to analyse the influence of individual characteristics and corresponding organisational conditions on volunteering and (2) to examine the decision-making processes in relation to implement effective strategies for recruiting volunteers. To answer these questions, the current state of research is summarised and then a multi-level-framework is developed which is based on the structural-individualistic social theory. The individual and context factors for volunteering are estimated in different multi-level models based on a sample of n=1,434 sport club members from 36 sport clubs in Switzerland. Results indicate that volunteering is not just an outcome of individual characteristics such as lower workloads, higher income, children belonging to the sport club, longer club membership, or a strong commitment to the club. It is also influenced by club-specific structural conditions. Concerning decision-making processes an in-depth analysis of recruitment practices for volunteers was conducted in selected clubs (case study design). based on the garbage can model. The results show that systematically designed decision-making processes with a clear regulation of responsibilities seem to solve personnel problems more purposefully and more quickly. Based on the findings some recommendations for volunteer management in football clubs are worked out.

Engaging stakeholders in community-level obesity prevention programming: Evaluation of the Fit Family Challenge

Introduction: Both a systems approach to change and a focus on multi-sector interventions ensures obesity prevention programming within the community is equitable, sustainable, and cost-effective. An authentic community engagement approach is required to implement interventions guided by best-evidence research and practice. Although there are examples illustrating the benefits of community engagement, there is no standardized method to implement it. The San Antonio Sports Foundation (SA Sports), a non-profit community-based organization, implements a variety of free events and programs promoting active life styles. One such program is the Fit Family Challenge which is a summer-long program implemented at the school level targeted at families. ^ Aims: This thesis was a culmination of the experience from the student collaborating with SA Sports as part of a practicum opportunity. Using secondary data collected by the Fit Family Challenge during the 2011 year, the goals of this thesis were: to assess individual changes; evaluate short-term impact; and describe the community engagement process. ^ Methods: SA Sports collected quantitative and qualitative data during the implementation and evaluation of the FFC program. SA Sports allowed the used of de-identified data to be analyzed to study the aims of this thesis. ^ Results: The program was able to provide families with the knowledge, information, and opportunity to exercise as a family and cook healthier meals. School district coordinators were generally satisfied and illustrated the benefits of a community partnership. An authentic community engagement was present highlighting the importance of communication, collaboration and the sustainability of such partnerships in the community. ^ Conclusion: The success of an obesity program should focus on triggers that initiate behavioral change rather than physiological changes. The evaluation was guided by a community engagement approach, which illustrated the development of new partnerships and the strengthening of other collaborations. Ultimately, the engagement approach empowered the community to identify their own problems and build collaboration, rather than tackling obesity prevention alone. ^

Territory and Infrastructure : Strategic Identification and Project Pondering

El Territorio hoy es visto como una totalidad organizada que no puede ser pensada separando cada uno de los elementos que la componen; cada uno de ellos es definido por su relación con los otros elementos. Así, un pensamiento que integra diferentes disciplinas y saberes comienza a manejar una realidad que lejos está de definir certezas inamovibles, y comienza a vislumbrar horizontes estratégicos. La adaptación a la no linealidad de las relaciones que se dan sobre el territorio, y la diferencia de velocidades en las que actúan los distintos actores, nos exige hacer de la flexibilidad una característica esencial de la metodología de planificación estratégica. La multi-causalidad de los fenómenos que estructuran el territorio nos obliga a construir criterios cualitativos, entendiendo que nos es imposible la medición de estas cadenas causales y su reconstrucción completa en el tiempo; sin dejar por ello de edificar un marco profundo de acción y transformación que responda a una realidad cierta y veraz. Los fenómenos producidos sobre el territorio nunca actúan de manera aislada, lo que implica una responsabilidad a la hora de comprender las sinergias y la restricción que afectan los resultados de los procesos desatados. La presente ponencia corresponde a la Segunda Fase del proceso de identificación estratégica de los proyectos Plan Estratégico Territorial (PET) que se inició en el año 2005; dicho Plan es llevada a cabo por la Subsecretaría de Planificación Territorial del Ministerio de Planificación Federal y fue abordado sobre la base de tres pretensiones: institucionalizar el ejercicio del pensamiento estratégico, fortalecer la metodología de trabajo transdisciplinaria y multisectorial, y diseñar un sistema de ponderación de proyectos estratégicos de infraestructura, tanto a nivel provincial como nacional, con una fuerte base cualitativa. Este proceso dio como resultado una cartera ponderada de proyectos de infraestructura conjuntamente con una metodología que permitió consolidar los equipos provinciales de planificación, tanto en su relación con los decisores políticos como con los actores de los múltiples sectores del gobierno, y en estos resultados consolidar y reforzar una cultura del pensamiento estratégico sobre el territorio