Mass Movement-Induced Tsunami Hazard on Perialpine Lake Lucerne (Switzerland): Scenarios and Numerical Experiments

Previous studies of the sediments of Lake Lucerne have shown that massive subaqueous mass movements affecting unconsolidated sediments on lateral slopes are a common process in this lake, and, in view of historical reports describing damaging waves on the lake, it was suggested that tsunamis generated by mass movements represent a considerable natural hazard on the lakeshores. Newly performed numerical simulations combining two-dimensional, depth-averaged models for mass-movement propagation and for tsunami generation, propagation and inunda- tion reproduce a number of reported tsunami effects. Four analysed mass-movement scenarios—three based on documented slope failures involving volumes of 5.5 to 20.8 9 106 m3—show peak wave heights of several metres and maximum runup of 6 to [10 m in the directly affected basins, while effects in neighbouring basins are less drastic. The tsunamis cause large-scale inundation over distances of several hundred metres on flat alluvial plains close to the mass-movement source areas. Basins at the ends of the lake experience regular water-level oscillations with characteristic periods of several minutes. The vulnerability of potentially affected areas has increased dramatically since the times of the damaging historical events, recommending a thorough evaluation of the hazard.

Effects of Externally Applied, Cyclical, Low Magnitude Forces on Orthodontic Tooth Movement in Rats

Orthodontic tooth movement requires external orthodontic forces to be converted to cellular signals that result in the coordinated removal of bone on one side of the tooth (compression side) by osteoclasts, and the formation of new bone by osteoblasts on the other side (tension side). The length of orthodontic treatment can take several years, leading to problems of caries, periodontal disease, root resorption, and patient dissatisfaction. It appears that the velocity of tooth movement is largely dependent on the rate of alveolar bone remodeling. Pharmacological approaches to increase the rate of tooth movement are limited due to patient discomfort, severe root resorption, and drug-induced side effects. Recently, externally applied, cyclical, low magnitude forces (CLMF) have been shown to cause an increase in the bone mineral density of long bones, and in the growth of craniofacial structures in a variety of animal models. In addition, CLMF is well tolerated by the patient and produces no known adverse effects. However, its application in orthodontic tooth movement has not been specifically determined. Since factors that increase alveolar bone remodeling enhance the rate of orthodontic tooth movement, we hypothesized that externally applied, cyclical, low magnitude forces (CLMF) will increase the rate of orthodontic tooth movement. In order to test this hypothesis we used an in vivo rat orthodontic tooth movement model. Our specific aims were: Specific Aim 1: To develop an in vivo rat model for tooth movement. We developed a tooth movement model based upon two established rodent models (Ren and Yoshimatsu et al, See Figure 1.). The amount of variation of tooth movement in rats exposed to 25-60 g of mesial force activated viii from the first molar to the incisor for 4 weeks was calculated. Specific Aim 2: To determine the frequency dose response of externally applied, cyclical, low magnitude forces (CLMF) for maximal tooth movement and osteoclast numbers. Our working hypothesis for this aim was that the amount of tooth movement would be dose dependent on the frequency of application of the CLMF. In order to test this working hypothesis, we varied the frequency of the CLMF from 30, 60, 100, and 200 Hz, 0.4N, two times per week, for 10 minutes for 4 weeks, and measured the amount of tooth movement. We also looked at the number of osteoclasts for the different frequencies; we hypothesized an increase in osteoclasts for the dose respnse of different frequencies. Specific Aim 3: To determine the effects of externally applied, cyclical, low magnitude forces (CLMF) on PDL proliferation. Our working hypothesis for this aim was that PDL proliferation would increase with CLMF. In order to test this hypothesis we compared CLMF (30 Hz, 0.4N, two times per week, for 10 minutes for 4 weeks) performed on the left side (experimental side), to the non-CLMF side, on the right (control side). This was an experimental study with 24 rats in total. The experimental group contained fifteen (15) rats in total, and they all received a spring plus a different frequency of CLMF. Three (3) received a spring and CLMF at 30 Hz, 0.4N for 10 minutes. Six (6) received a spring and CLMF at 60 Hz, 0.4N for 10 minutes. Three (3) received a spring and CLMF at 100 Hz, 0.4N for 10 minutes. Three (3) received a spring and CLMF at 200 Hz, 0.4N for 10 minutes. The control group contained six (6) rats, and received only a spring. An additional ix three (3) rats received CLMF (30 Hz, 0.4N, two times per week, for 10 minutes for 4 weeks) only, with no spring, and were used only for histological purposes. Rats were subjected to the application of orthodontic force from their maxillary left first molar to their left central incisor. In addition some of the rats received externally applied, cyclical, low magnitude force (CLMF) on their maxillary left first molar. micro-CT was used to measure the amount of orthodontic tooth movement. The distance between the maxillary first and second molars, at the most mesial point of the second molar and the most distal point of the first molar (1M-2M distance) were used to evaluate the distance of tooth movement. Immunohistochemistry was performed with TRAP staining and BrdU quantification. Externally applied, cyclical, low magnitude forces (CLMF) do appear to have an effect on the rate, while not significant, of orthodontic tooth movement in rats. It appears that lower CLMF decreases the rate of tooth movement, while higher CLMF increases the rate of tooth movement. Future studies with larger sample sizes are needed to clarify this issue. CLMF does not appear to affect the proliferation in PDL cells, and has no effect on the number of osteoclasts.

The Devil’s Calculus: Mathematical Models of Civil War

In spite of the movement to turn political science into a real science, various mathematical methods that are now the staples of physics, biology, and even economics are thoroughly uncommon in political science, especially the study of civil war. This study seeks to apply such methods - specifically, ordinary differential equations (ODEs) - to model civil war based on what one might dub the capabilities school of thought, which roughly states that civil wars end only when one side’s ability to make war falls far enough to make peace truly attractive. I construct several different ODE-based models and then test them all to see which best predicts the instantaneous capabilities of both sides of the Sri Lankan civil war in the period from 1990 to 1994 given parameters and initial conditions. The model that the tests declare most accurate gives very accurate predictions of state military capabilities and reasonable short term predictions of cumulative deaths. Analysis of the model reveals the scale of the importance of rebel finances to the sustainability of insurgency, most notably that the number of troops required to put down the Tamil Tigers is reduced by nearly a full order of magnitude when Tiger foreign funding is stopped. The study thus demonstrates that accurate foresight may come of relatively simple dynamical models, and implies the great potential of advanced and currently unconventional non-statistical mathematical methods in political science.

Age models and stabile isotope ratios from SO35 cores

Stable isotope measurements on the planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber (white) have been carried out on a number of selected deep-seas sediment cores from the South Lau and Norlh Fiji Basins. The d18O-curves show good correlation with the inter-ocean oraphic correlation composite d18O-record of the standard reference section (Prell et al. 1986), which, in combination with the chronostratigraphic classifications of Herterich & Sarnthein (1984, modified) and Imbrie et al. 1984), allows a detailed dating of the sedimentary sequences. The deepest layers in core no. 119 (southern Lau Basin) could be assigned to Isotope Stage 24. Measurements made on bulk carbonate in two cores show a much higher glacial-interglacial amplitude, allowing the general identification of the conventional oxygen isotope stages. The d13C-values of the benthic foraminifer Cibicidoides wuellerstorfi show progressively lighter values northwards reflecting an increasing contribution of the isotopically lighter CO2 from the remineralisation of organic matter during the general northward movement of the deep water masses. Cyclicities in the sedimentation rates were observed in core nos. 117 and 119 (both southern Lau Basin) where the interglacials exhibit higher levels than the glacials. Calculated new or export paleoproductivity show that the glacials had higher productivity in the euphotic zone. From the oxygen isotope stratigraphy, the five ash layers in core nos. 117 and 119 could be dated as about 530 ka B.P. in Stage 14, 695 ka B.P. in Stage 18, 775 ka B.P. in Stage 21, 790 ka B.P. and 825 ka B.P. in Stage 22. Carbonate dissolution occurred during stages 5, 8 and 10 to 12.

Software for "Realistic limits for subpixel movement detection"

Object tracking with subpixel accuracy is of fundamental importance in many fields since it provides optimal performance at relatively low-cost. Although there are many theoretical proposals that lead to resolution increments of several orders of magnitude, in practice, this resolution is limited by the imaging systems. In this paper we propose and demonstrate through numerical models a realistic limit for subpixel accuracy. The final result is that maximum achievable resolution enhancement is connected with the dynamic range of the image, i.e. the detection limit is 1/2^(nr.bits). Results here presented may help to proper design of superresolution experiments in microscopy, surveillance, defense and other fields.

Realistic limits for subpixel movement detection

Object tracking with subpixel accuracy is of fundamental importance in many fields since it provides optimal performance at relatively low cost. Although there are many theoretical proposals that lead to resolution increments of several orders of magnitude, in practice this resolution is limited by the imaging systems. In this paper we propose and demonstrate through simple numerical models a realistic limit for subpixel accuracy. The final result is that maximum achievable resolution enhancement is connected with the dynamic range of the image, i.e., the detection limit is 1/2∧(nr.bits). The results here presented may aid in proper design of superresolution experiments in microscopy, surveillance, defense, and other fields.

Sagittal movement of the medial longitudinal arch is unchanged in plantar fasciitis

Background: Although a lowered medial longitudinal arch has been cited as a causal factor in plantar fasciitis, there is little experimental evidence linking arch motion to the pathogenesis of the condition. This study investigated the sagittal movement of the arch in subjects with and without plantar fasciitis during gait. Methods: Digital fluoroscopy was used to acquire dynamic lateral radiographs from 10 subjects with unilateral plantar fasciitis and 10 matched control subjects. The arch angle and the first metatarsophalangeal joint angle were digitized and their respective maxima recorded. Sagittal movement of the arch was defined as the angular change between heel strike and the maximum arch angle observed during the stance phase of gait. The-thickness of the proximal plantar fascia was determined from sagittal sonograms of both feet. ANOVA models were used to identify differences between limbs with respect to each dependent variable. Relationships between arch movement and fascial thickness were investigated using correlations. Results: There was no significant difference in either the movement or maximum arch angle between limbs. However, subjects with plantar fasciitis were found to have a larger metatarsophalangeal joint angle than controls (P < 0.05). Whereas the symptomatic and asymptomatic plantar fascia were thicker than those of control feet (P < 0.05), significant correlations were noted between fascial thickness and peak arch and metatarsophalangeal joint angles (P < 0.05) in the symptomatic limb only. Conclusions: Neither abnormal shape nor movement of the arch are associated with chronic plantar fasciitis. However, arch mechanics may influence the severity of plantar fasciitis once the condition is present. Digital flexion, in contrast, has a protective role in what might be a bilateral disease process.

Borrowing from models of motor control to translate cognitive processes: Evidence for hypokinetic-hyperkinetic linguistic homologues?

In relation to motor control, the basal ganglia have been implicated in both the scaling and focusing of movement. Hypokinetic and hyperkinetic movement disorders manifest as a consequence of overshooting and undershooting GPi (globus pallidus internus) activity thresholds, respectively. Recently, models of motor control have been borrowed to translate cognitive processes relating to the overshooting and undershooting of GPi activity, including attention and executive function. Linguistic correlates, however, are yet to be extrapolated in sufficient detail. The aims of the present investigation were to: (1) characterise cognitive-linguistic processes within hypokinetic and hyperkinetic neural systems, as defined by motor disturbances; (2) investigate the impact of surgically-induced GPi lesions upon language abilities. Two Parkinsonian cases with opposing motor symptoms (akinetic versus dystonic/dyskinetic) served as experimental subjects in this research. Assessments were conducted both prior to as well as 3 and 12 months following bilateral posteroventral pallidotomy (PVP). Reliable changes in performance (i.e. both improvements and decrements) were typically restricted to tasks demanding complex linguistic operations across subjects. Hyperkinetic motor symptoms were associated with an initial overall improvement in complex language function as a consequence of bilateral PVP, which diminished over time, suggesting a decrescendo effect relative to surgical beneficence. In contrast, hypokinetic symptoms were associated with a more stable longitudinal linguistic profile, albeit defined by higher proportions of reliable decline versus improvement in postoperative assessment scores. The above findings endorsed the integration of the GPi within cognitive mechanisms involved in the arbitration of complex language functions. In relation to models of motor control, 'focusing' was postulated to represent the neural processes underpinning lexical-semantic manipulation, and 'scaling' the potential allocation of cognitive resources during the mediation of high-level linguistic tasks. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Degrees of freedom and motor planning in purposive movement

This paper presents empirical evidence suggesting that healthy humans can perform a two degree of freedom visuo-motor pursuit tracking task with the same response time delay as a one degree of freedom task. In contrast, the time delay of the response is influenced markedly by the nature of the motor synergy required to produce it. We suggest a conceptual account of this evidence based on adaptive model theory, which combines theories of intermittency from psychology and adaptive optimal control from engineering. The intermittent response planning stage has a fixed period. It possesses multiple optimal trajectory generators such that multiple degrees of freedom can be planned concurrently, without requiring an increase in the planning period. In tasks which require unfamiliar motor synergies, or are deemed to be incompatible, internal adaptive models representing movement dynamics are inaccurate. This means that the actual response which is produced will deviate from the one which is planned. For a given target-response discrepancy, corrective response trajectories of longer duration are planned, consistent with the principle of speed-accuracy trade-off. Compared to familiar or compatible tasks, this results in a longer response time delay and reduced accuracy. From the standpoint of the intermittency approach, the findings of this study help make possible a more integral and predictive account of purposive action. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Automatic initialisation of 3D deformable models for cartilage segmentation

Deformable models are a highly accurate and flexible approach to segmenting structures in medical images. The primary drawback of deformable models is that they are sensitive to initialisation, with accurate and robust results often requiring initialisation close to the true object in the image. Automatically obtaining a good initialisation is problematic for many structures in the body. The cartilages of the knee are a thin elastic material that cover the ends of the bone, absorbing shock and allowing smooth movement. The degeneration of these cartilages characterize the progression of osteoarthritis. The state of the art in the segmentation of the cartilage are 2D semi-automated algorithms. These algorithms require significant time and supervison by a clinical expert, so the development of an automatic segmentation algorithm for the cartilages is an important clinical goal. In this paper we present an approach towards this goal that allows us to automatically providing a good initialisation for deformable models of the patella cartilage, by utilising the strong spatial relationship of the cartilage to the underlying bone.

The campaign to save Croxteth comprehensive: an ethnographic study of a protest movement

This thesis is based on ethnographic research carried out on a Liverpool protest movement which occurred between November, 1980 and July,1983. The protest movement was waged by residents of the working class community of Croxteth Liverpool who wished to retain their state secondary school, Croxteth Comprehensive. The Liverpool City Council voted in favour of closing Croxteth Comprehensive in January, 1981 because of its declining roles. Residents began theIr campaign as soon as they became aware of intentions to close the school at the end of the previous year. The campaIgn itself went through a number of different phases, distinguishable accordIng to the groups of people involved, the strategy and tactics they employed, the ways in which they justified their campaign, and the goals they pursued. In July of 1982 the organisation which led the protest, the Croxteth Community Action Committee, took illegal possession of the school buildings and ran a pilot summer school project. In September of 1982 they opened the school doors for all secondary pupils on the council estate and began running classes, with the help of volunteer teachers. The school was run successfully in this way for the entire 1982/83 school year. By the end of this period the school was officially reinstated by a new Labour Party majorIty on the city council. This thesis presents a comprehensive account of the entire campaign, from its beginning to end. The campaign is analysed in a number of ways: by situating the closure itself in the economic and political conditions of Liverpool in the 1980s, by examining the relation of Croxteth Comprehensive to its community, by describing the conditions in which different groups of people contributed to the campaign and the changes it went through in its use of tactics, and through a close examination of the activities which took place inside the school during its year of occupation. A number of levels of analysis are used in the study. To explain the closure and the early forms of resistance which developed to oppose it, the structural location of the local government of Liverpool in the late 1970s and early 1980s is described. To explain the relationship of the school to its community, the formation of a group of activists and their leaders, and the resources available to the protestors for pursuing their aims, a single-group model of social action is used. To analyse the establishment of social routines and schooling practices within the school during its occupation, action-theoretica1 models are drawn upon., The chapters of literature review and concept analysis with which this thesis begins link these different levels theoretIcalIy through a model of actIon and its conditions. The theoretical framework employed is reviewed in the last chapter. It is one which could be used to study any social movement, and has applications to other social phenomena as well. Lastly various issues within the sociology of education are examined in light of the events which took place in Croxteth Comprehensive, especially the theory of community education.

GIS linked environmental process models

In recent years there has been a great effort to combine the technologies and techniques of GIS and process models. This project examines the issues of linking a standard current generation 2½d GIS with several existing model codes. The focus for the project has been the Shropshire Groundwater Scheme, which is being developed to augment flow in the River Severn during drought periods by pumping water from the Shropshire Aquifer. Previous authors have demonstrated that under certain circumstances pumping could reduce the soil moisture available for crops. This project follows earlier work at Aston in which the effects of drawdown were delineated and quantified through the development of a software package that implemented a technique which brought together the significant spatially varying parameters. This technique is repeated here, but using a standard GIS called GRASS. The GIS proved adequate for the task and the added functionality provided by the general purpose GIS - the data capture, manipulation and visualisation facilities - were of great benefit. The bulk of the project is concerned with examining the issues of the linkage of GIS and environmental process models. To this end a groundwater model (Modflow) and a soil moisture model (SWMS2D) were linked to the GIS and a crop model was implemented within the GIS. A loose-linked approach was adopted and secondary and surrogate data were used wherever possible. The implications of which relate to; justification of a loose-linked versus a closely integrated approach; how, technically, to achieve the linkage; how to reconcile the different data models used by the GIS and the process models; control of the movement of data between models of environmental subsystems, to model the total system; the advantages and disadvantages of using a current generation GIS as a medium for linking environmental process models; generation of input data, including the use of geostatistic, stochastic simulation, remote sensing, regression equations and mapped data; issues of accuracy, uncertainty and simply providing adequate data for the complex models; how such a modelling system fits into an organisational framework.

Exploring the digital supply chain:implications and models for online software distribution

As a discipline, supply chain management (SCM) has traditionally been primarily concerned with the procurement, processing, movement and sale of physical goods. However an important class of products has emerged - digital products - which cannot be described as physical as they do not obey commonly understood physical laws. They do not possess mass or volume, and they require no energy in their manufacture or distribution. With the Internet, they can be distributed at speeds unimaginable in the physical world, and every copy produced is a 100% perfect duplicate of the original version. Furthermore, the ease with which digital products can be replicated has few analogues in the physical world. This paper assesses the effect of non-physicality on one such product – software – in relation to the practice of SCM. It explores the challenges that arise when managing the software supply chain and how practitioners are addressing these challenges. Using a two-pronged exploratory approach that examines the literature around software management as well as direct interviews with software distribution practitioners, a number of key challenges associated with software supply chains are uncovered, along with responses to these challenges. This paper proposes a new model for software supply chains that takes into account the non-physicality of the product being delivered. Central to this model is the replacement of physical flows with flows of intellectual property, the growing importance of innovation over duplication and the increased centrality of the customer in the entire process. Hybrid physical / digital supply chains are discussed and a framework for practitioners concerned with software supply chains is presented.

Functional genomic and molecular analyses of transcripts related to glycerol synthesis and trafficking in rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) using cold temperature-induced models of glycerol production

The rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) is an anadromous teleost that produces type II antifreeze protein (AFP) and accumulates modest urea and high glycerol levels in plasma and tissues as adaptive cryoprotectant mechanisms in sub-zero temperatures. It is known that glyceroneogenesis occurs in liver via a branch in glycolysis and gluconeogenesis and is activated by low temperature; however, the precise mechanisms of glycerol synthesis and trafficking in smelt remain to be elucidated. The objective of this thesis was to provide further insight using functional genomic techniques [e.g. suppression subtractive hybridization (SSH) cDNA library construction, microarray analyses] and molecular analyses [e.g. cloning, quantitative reverse transcription - polymerase chain reaction (QPCR)]. Novel molecular mechanisms related to glyceroneogenesis were deciphered by comparing the transcript expression profiles of glycerol (cold temperature) and non-glycerol (warm temperature) accumulating hepatocytes (Chapter 2) and livers from intact smelt (Chapter 3). Briefly, glycerol synthesis can be initiated from both amino acids and carbohydrate; however carbohydrate appears to be the preferred source when it is readily available. In glycerol accumulating hepatocytes, levels of the hepatic glucose transporter (GLUT2) plummeted and transcript levels of a suite of genes (PEPCK, MDH2, AAT2, GDH and AQP9) associated with the mobilization of amino acids to fuel glycerol synthesis were all transiently higher. In contrast, in glycerol accumulating livers from intact smelt, glycerol synthesis was primarily fuelled by glycogen degradation with higher PGM and PFK (glycolysis) transcript levels. Whether initiated from amino acids or carbohydrate, there were common metabolic underpinnings. Increased PDK2 (an inhibitor of PDH) transcript levels would direct pyruvate derived from amino acids and / or DHAP derived from G6P to glycerol as opposed to oxidation via the citric acid cycle. Robust LIPL (triglyceride catabolism) transcript levels would provide free fatty acids that could be oxidized to fuel ATP synthesis. Increased cGPDH (glyceroneogenesis) transcript levels were not required for increased glycerol production, suggesting that regulation is more likely by post-translational modification. Finally, levels of a transcript potentially encoding glycerol-3-phosphatase, an enzyme not yet characterized in any vertebrate species, were transiently higher. These comparisons also led to the novel discoveries that increased G6Pase (glucose synthesis) and increased GS (glutamine synthesis) transcript levels were part of the low temperature response in smelt. Glucose may provide increased colligative protection against freezing; whereas glutamine could serve to store nitrogen released from amino acid catabolism in a non-toxic form and / or be used to synthesize urea via purine synthesis-uricolysis. Novel key aspects of cryoprotectant osmolyte (glycerol and urea) trafficking were elucidated by cloning and characterizing three aquaglyceroporin (GLP)-encoding genes from smelt at the gene and cDNA levels in Chapter 4. GLPs are integral membrane proteins that facilitate passive movement of water, glycerol and urea across cellular membranes. The highlight was the discovery that AQP10ba transcript levels always increase in posterior kidney only at low temperature. This AQP10b gene paralogue may have evolved to aid in the reabsorption of urea from the proximal tubule. This research has contributed significantly to a general understanding of the cold adaptation response in smelt, and more specifically to the development of a working scenario for the mechanisms involved in glycerol synthesis and trafficking in this species.

Residence Time Distribution (Rtd) Associated with Statistical Weighted Moments to Fit Mathematical Models Using In Industrial Systems Diagnosis

This work presents a computational, called MOMENTS, code developed to be used in process control to determine a characteristic transfer function to industrial units when radiotracer techniques were been applied to study the unit´s performance. The methodology is based on the measuring the residence time distribution function (RTD) and calculate the first and second temporal moments of the tracer data obtained by two scintillators detectors NaI positioned to register a complete tracer movement inside the unit. Non linear regression technique has been used to fit various mathematical models and a statistical test was used to select the best result to the transfer function. Using the code MOMENTS, twelve different models can be used to fit a curve and calculate technical parameters to the unit.