841 resultados para Mortality forecasting


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Background Factors affecting vulnerability to heat-related mortality are not well understood. Identifying susceptible populations is of particular importance given anticipated rising temperatures from climatic change. Methods We investigated heat-related mortality for three Latin American cities (Mexico City, Mexico; Sao Paulo, Brazil; Santiago, Chile) using a case-crossover approach for 754 291 deaths from 1998 to 2002. We considered lagged exposures, confounding by air pollution, cause of death and susceptibilities by educational attainment, age and sex. Results Same and previous day apparent temperature were most strongly associated with mortality risk. Effect estimates remained positive though lowered after adjustment for ozone or PM(10). Susceptibility increased with age in all cities. The increase in mortality risk for those >= 65 comparing the 95th and 75th percentiles of same-day apparent temperature was 2.69% (95% CI: -2.06 to 7.88%) for Santiago, 6.51% (95% CI: 3.57-9.52%) for Sao Paulo and 3.22% (95% CI: 0.93-5.57%) for Mexico City. Patterns of vulnerability by education and sex differed across communities. Effect estimates were higher for women than men in Mexico City, and higher for men elsewhere, although results by sex were not appreciably different for any city. In Sao Paulo, those with less education were more susceptible, whereas no distinct patterns by education were observed in the other cities. Conclusions Elevated temperatures are associated with mortality risk in these Latin American cities, with the strongest associations in So Paulo, the hottest city. The elderly are an important population for targeted prevention measures, but vulnerability by sex and education differed by city.

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Objective. To study the epidemiology of rotavirus and estimate rotavirus- associated morbidity and mortality in children <= 5 years of age in Brazil in 2004 before introducing the rotavirus vaccine in Brazil`s National Immunization Program ( Programa Nacional de Imunizacoes, PNI). Methods. To estimate rotavirus morbidity, published studies ( 1999 - 2006) addressing incidence of acute diarrhea among children <= 5 years of age and frequency of rotavirus infection among children with diarrhea in Brazil were reviewed. Diarrhea episodes were divided into three categories of severity by level of care: mild cases requiring only home- based care; moderate cases requiring a visit to an outpatient healthcare facility; and severe cases requiring hospitalization. To estimate rotavirus mortality, information on the number of registered deaths from diarrhea in children <= 5 years of age was obtained from the Mortality Information System ( Sistema de Informacao, sobre Mortalidade, SIM) of Brazil`s public healthcare system ( Sistema Unico de Sa de, SUS) and the proportion of deaths due to rotavirus was calculated. Results. Rotavirus infections were estimated to cause 3 525 053 episodes of diarrhea, 655 853 visits to outpatient healthcare facilities, 92 453 hospitalizations, and 850 deaths of children <= 5 years of age each year in Brazil. Conclusion. Rotavirus infections are an important cause of child morbidity and mortality in Brazil.

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Objective To test the hypothesis that red blood cell (RBC) transfusions in preterm infants are associated with increased intra-hospital mortality. Study design Variables associated with death were studied with Cox regression analysis in a prospective cohort of preterm infants with birth weight <1500 g in the Brazilian Network on Neonatal Research. Intra-hospital death and death after 28 days of life were analyzed as dependent variables. Independent variables were infant demographic and clinical characteristics and RBC transfusions. Results Of 1077 infants, 574 (53.3%) received at least one RBC transfusion during the hospital stay. The mean number of transfusions per infant was 3.3 +/- 3.4, with 2.1 +/- 2.1 in the first 28 days of life. Intra-hospital death occurred in 299 neonates (27.8%), and 60 infants (5.6%) died after 28 days of life. After adjusting for confounders, the relative risk of death during hospital stay was 1.49 in infants who received at least one RBC transfusion in the first 28 days of life, compared with infants who did not receive a transfusion. The risk of death after 28 days of life was 1.89 times higher in infants who received more than two RBC transfusions during their hospital stay, compared with infants who received one or two transfusions. Conclusion Transfusion was associated with increased death, and transfusion guidelines should consider risks and benefits of transfusion. (J Pediatr 2011; 159: 371-6).

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Background: Endoscopic sclerotherapy (ES) has been the standard treatment for children with idiopathic extrahepatic portal vein obstruction (EHPVO). Portosystemic shunts are indicated when variceal bleeding cannot be controlled by ES. Recently, mesenteric left portal vein bypass was indicated as a surgical intervention and preventative measure for hepatic dysfunction in children with long-term EHPVO. Nevertheless, there is a lack Of published data confirming the extent of hepatic dysfunction, hypersplenism, and physical development in children with long-term follow-up. Method: We retrospectively verified the long-term outcomes in 82 children with EHPVO treated with ES protocol, focusing on mortality, control of bleeding, hypersplenism, and consequent hepatic dysfunction. Results: Of the children, 56% were free from bleeding after the initiation of ES. The most frequent cause of rebleeding was gastric varices (30%). Four patients had recurrent bleeding from esophageal varices (4.6%). Four patients underwent surgery as a consequence of uncontrolled gastric varices. There were no deaths. Most patients showed good physical development. We observed a mild but statistically significant drop in factor V motion, as well as leukocyte and platelet count. Conclusion: Endoscopic sclerotherapy is an efficient treatment for children with EHPVO. The incidence of rebleeding is low, and there was no mortality. Children develop mild liver dysfunction and hypersplenism with long-term follow-up. Only a few patients manifest symptoms of hypersplenism, portal biliopathy, or liver dysfunction before adolescence. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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The present study was designed to explore the correlation between the frequency of micronuclei in Trad-MN, measured across 28 biomonitoring stations during the period comprised between 11 of May and 2 of October, 2006, and adjusted mortality rates due to cardiovascular, respiratory diseases and cancer in Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil, an area with different sources of air pollution. For controlling purposes, mortality rate due to gastrointestinal diseases (an event less prone to be affected by air pollution) was also considered in the analysis. Spatial distribution of micronuclei frequency was determined using average interpolation. The association between health estimators and micronuclei frequency was determined by measures of Pearson`s correlation. Higher frequencies of micronuclei were detected in areas with high traffic and close to a petrochemical pole. Significant associations were detected between micronuclei frequency and adjusted mortality rate due to cardiovascular diseases (r = 0.841, p = 0.036) and cancer (r = 0.890, p = 0.018). The association between mortality due to chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases was positive but did not reach statistical significance (r = 0.640, p = 0.172), probably because of the small number of events. Gastrointestinal mortality did not exhibit significant association with micronuclei frequency. Because the small number of observations and the nature of an ecological study, the present findings must be considered with caution and considered as preliminary. Further studies, performed in different conditions of contamination and climate should be done before considering Trad-MN in the evaluation of human health risk imposed by air pollutants. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Background: Tuberculous meningitis (TBM) is a growing problem in HIV-infected patients in developing countries, where there is scarce data about this co-infection. Our objectives were to analyze the main features and outcomes of HIV-infected patients with TBM. Methods: This was a retrospective study of HIV-infected Brazilian patients admitted consecutively for TBM. All patients had Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolated from the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). Presenting clinical and laboratory features were studied. Multivariate analysis was used to identify variables associated with death during hospitalization and at 9 months after diagnosis. Survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Results: We included 108 cases (median age 36 years, 72% male). Only 15% had fever, headache, and meningeal signs simultaneously. Forty-eight percent had extrameningeal tuberculosis. The median CD4+ cell count was 65 cells/mu l. Among 90 cases, 7% had primary resistance to isoniazid and 9% presented multidrug-resistant strains. The overall mortality during hospitalization was 29% and at 9 months was 41%. Tachycardia and prior highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) were associated with 9-month mortality. The 9-month survival rate was 22% (95% confidence interval 12-43%). Conclusions: Clinical and laboratory manifestations were unspecific. Disseminated tuberculosis and severe immunosuppression were common. Mortality was high and the 9-month survival rate was low. Tachycardia and prior HAART were associated with death within 9 months of diagnosis. (C) 2009 International Society for Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The aim of the present study was to evaluate by immunohistochemistry the prognostic meaning of the tumor marker MET (hepatocyte growth factor) in patients submitted to surgical resection due to primary colorectal adenocarcinoma. Patients and Methods: A retrospective study was carried out that included 286 consecutive patients with colorectal adenocarcinoma, submitted to surgical resection at Barretos Cancer Hospital, from 1993 to 2002. The histopathological expression of the MET tumor marker was evaluated using an anti-protein monoclonal antibody against MET by the streptavidin-biotin-peroxidase technique. The expression of the tumor marker was semi-quantitative, and the slide samples were independently analyzed by three pathologists unaware of patient clinical and histopathological data. Results: The tumor marker expression was positive in 236 (79%) out of a total of 286 patients. This expression was statistically significantly different between stages I and IV (p=0.004), for overall survival (p=0.009), and for cancer-related mortality rates (p=0.022). However, no association between the tumor marker and recurrence (p=0.89) or disease-free interval (p=0.91) was observed. Conclusion: MET has shown significant expression at advanced stages of the disease, as well as for overall survival and cancer-related mortality rates demonstrating to be a valuable marker for poor prognosis in colorectal cancer patients.

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Aims: To evaluate the risk and predictors of death in a large population of patients with stable coronary disease treated with percutaneous intervention. Methods and results: The study population comprised 1,276 patients with chronic angina or silent ischaemia who underwent elective coronary angioplasty. Baseline and in-hospital mortality data were prospectively collected for all patients during the index hospitalisation. Post-discharge outcome was assessed at out-patient clinic, by review of the patients` records, or direct phone contact. Deaths were classified as cardiac and non-cardiac. Age, peripheral arterial disease, congestive heart failure with NYHA class Ill, triple-vessel disease, and procedural success (i.e. angiographic success for all lesions in the absence of pen-procedural infarction) remained as multivariate independent predictors of death. For the entire population 4-year cumulative all-cause and cardiac mortality were respectively 5.4% and 4.1%. Four-year mortality for patients without any multivariate predictor was 2.4%, while for patients with two or more predictors the death rate was 16.3% after four years. Conclusions: Patients with stable coronary disease undergoing percutaneous treatment have an overall low mortality rate after four years. Nevertheless, stable patients comprise a heterogeneous population in terms of risk profile, ranging from patients at very low risk of late death to individuals with a poor long-term prognosis.

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Methods: We assessed the outcome of 56 patients with Chagas` cardiomyopathy ([31 men]; mean age of 55 years; mean left ventricular ejection fraction [LVEF] 42%) presenting with either sustained ventricular tachycardia (VT) or nonsustained VT (NSVT), before therapy with implantable cardioverter-defibrillator was available at our center. Results: Over a mean follow-up of 38 +/- 16 months (range, 1-61 months), 16 patients (29%) died, 11 due to sudden cardiac death (SCD), and five from progressive heart failure. Survivors and nonsurvivors had comparable baseline characteristics, except for a lower LVEF (46 +/- 7% vs 31 +/- 9%, P < 0.001) and a higher New York Heart Association class (P = 0.003) in those who died during follow-up. Receiver-operator characteristic curve analysis showed that an LVEF cutoff value of 38% had the best accuracy for predicting all-cause mortality and an LVEF cutoff value of 40% had the best accuracy for prediction of SCD. Using the multivariate Cox regression analysis, LVEF < 40% was the only predictor of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 12.22, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.46-43.17, P = 0.0001) and SCD (HR 6.58, 95% CI 1.74-24.88, P = 0.005). Conclusions: Patients with Chagas` cardiomyopathy presenting with either sustained VT or NSVT run a major risk for mortality when had concomitant severe or even moderate LV systolic dysfunction. (PACE 2011; 54-62).

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The strong inflammatory reaction that occurs in the heart during the acute phase of Trypanosoma cruzi infection is modulated by cytokines and chemokines produced by leukocytes and cardiomyocytes. Matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) have recently emerged as modulators of cardiovascular inflammation. In the present study we investigated the role of MMP-2 and MMP-9 in T. cruzi-induced myocarditis, by use of immunohistochemical analysis, gelatin zymography, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, and real-time polymerase chain reaction to analyze the cardiac tissues of T. cruzi-infected C57BL/6 mice. Increased transcripts levels, immunoreactivity, and enzymatic activity for MMP-2 and MMP-9 were observed by day 14 after infection. Mice treated with an MMP inhibitor showed significantly decreased heart inflammation, delayed peak in parasitemia, and improved survival rates, compared with the control group. Reduced levels of cardiac tumor necrosis factor-alpha, interferon-gamma, serum nitrite, and serum nitrate were also observed in the treated group. These results suggest an important role for MMPs in the induction of T. cruzi-induced acute myocarditis.

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Rationale: The reduction of neutrophil migration to the bacterial focus is associated with poor outcome in sepsis. Objectives: The objective of this study was to identify soluble substances in the blood of septic mice that inhibit neutrophil migration. Methods: A pool of serum obtained from mice 2 hours after the induction of severe sepsis by cecal ligation and puncture inhibited the neutrophil migration. The proteins with inhibitory activity on neutrophil migration were isolated by Blue-Sepharose chromatography, high-performance liquid chromatography, and electrophoresis, and identified by mass spectrometry. Measurements and Main Results: Hemopexin was identified as the serum component responsible for the inhibition of neutrophil migration. In sepsis, the pretreatment of wild-type mice with hemopexin inhibited neutrophil migration to the focus of infection and decreased the survival rate from 87.5 to 50.0%. Hemopexin-null mice subjected to severe sepsis presented normal neutrophil migration, low bacteremia, and an improvement of 40% in survival rate. Moreover, hemopexin inhibited the neutrophil chemotaxis response evoked by C5a or macrophage inflammatory protein-2 and induced a reduction of CXCR2 and L-selectin as well as the up-regulation of CD11b expression in neutrophil membranes. The inhibitory effect of hemopexin on neutrophil chemotaxis was prevented by serine protease inhibitors or ATP. In addition, serum levels of ATP were decreased 2 hours after severe sepsis. Conclusions: These data demonstrate for the first time the inhibitory role of hemopexin in neutrophil migration during sepsis and suggest that the therapeutic inhibition of hemopexin or its protease activity could improve neutrophil migration to the focus of infection and survival in sepsis.

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This study provides evidence supporting the idea that although inflammatory cells migration to the cardiac tissue is necessary to control the growth of Trypanosoma cruzi, the excessive influx of such cells during acute myocarditis may be deleterious to the host. Production of lipid mediators of inflammation like leukotrienes (LTs) along with cytokines and chemokines largely influences the severity of inflammatory injury in response to tissue parasitism. T cruzi infection in mice deficient in 5-lipoxygenase (5-LO), the enzyme responsible for the synthesis of LTs and other lipid inflammatory mediators, resulted in transiently increased parasitemia, and improved survival rate compared with WT mice. Myocardia from 5-LO(-/-) mice exhibited reduced inflammation, collagen deposition, and migration of CD4(+), CD8(+), and IFN-gamma-producer cells compared with WT littermates. Moreover, decreased amounts of TNF-alpha, IFN-gamma, and nitric oxide synthase were found in the hearts of 5-LO(-/-) mice. Interestingly, despite of early higher parasitic load, 5-LO(-/-) mice survived, and controlled T cruzi infection. These results show that efficient parasite clearance is possible in a context of moderate inflammatory response, as occurred in 5-LO(-/-) mice, in which reduced myocarditis protects the animals during T cruzi infection. (c) 2010 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.