A set of indicators for decomposing the secular increase of life expectancy.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The ongoing increase in life expectancy in developed countries is associated with changes in the shape of the survival curve. These changes can be characterized by two main, distinct components: (i) the decline in premature mortality, i.e., the concentration of deaths around some high value of the mean age at death, also termed rectangularization of the survival curve; and (ii) the increase of this mean age at death, i.e., longevity, which directly reflects the reduction of mortality at advanced ages. Several recent observations suggest that both mechanisms are simultaneously taking place. METHODS: We propose a set of indicators aiming to quantify, disentangle, and compare the respective contribution of rectangularization and longevity increase to the secular increase of life expectancy. These indicators, based on a nonparametric approach, are easy to implement. RESULTS: We illustrate the method with the evolution of the Swiss mortality data between 1876 and 2006. Using our approach, we are able to say that the increase in longevity and rectangularization explain each about 50% of the secular increase of life expectancy. CONCLUSION: Our method may provide a useful tool to assess whether the contribution of rectangularization to the secular increase of life expectancy will remain around 50% or whether it will be increasing in the next few years, and thus whether concentration of mortality will eventually take place against some ultimate biological limit.

Exploring the periodicity of cardiovascular events in Switzerland: variation in deaths and hospitalizations across seasons, day of the week and hour of the day.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to explore the periodical patterns of events and deaths related to cardiovascular disease (CVD), acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and stroke in Swiss adults (≥ 18 years). METHODS: Mortality data for period 1969-2007 (N=869,863 CVD events) and hospitalization data for period 1997-2008 (N=959,990 CVD events) were used. The annual, weekly and circadian distribution of CVD-related deaths and events were assessed. Multivariate analysis was conducted using multinomial logistic regression adjusting for age, gender and calendar year and considering deaths from respiratory diseases, accidents or other causes as competitive events. RESULTS: CVD deaths and hospitalizations occurred less frequently in the summer months. Similar patterns were found for AMI and stroke. No significant weekly variation for CVD deaths was found. Stratification by age and gender showed subjects aged <65 years to present a higher probability of dying on Mondays and Saturday, only for men. This finding was confirmed after multivariate adjustment. Finally, a circadian variation in CVD mortality was observed, with a first peak in the morning (8-12 am) and a smaller second peak in the late afternoon (2-6 pm). This pattern persisted after multivariate adjustment and was more pronounced for AMI than for stroke. CONCLUSION: There is a periodicity of hospitalizations and deaths related to CVD, AMI and stroke in Switzerland. This pattern changes slightly according to the age and sex of the subjects. Although the underlying mechanisms are not fully identified, preventive measures should take into account these aspects to develop better strategies of prevention and management of CVD.

2006 Cancer in Iowa Report, 2006

In 2006, an estimated 6,300 Iowans will die from cancer, 14 times the number caused by auto fatalities. Cancer is second only to heart disease as a cause of death. These projections are based upon mortality data the State Health Registry of Iowa receives from the Iowa Department of Public Health. The Registry has been recording the occurrence of cancer in Iowa since 1973, and is one of fourteen population-based registries and three supplementary registries nationwide providing data to the National Cancer Institute. In 2006 an estimated 16,000 cancers will be newly diagnosed among Iowa residents. With 2006 Cancer in Iowa the Registry makes a general report to the public on the status of cancer.

Predictive accuracy of original and recalibrated Framingham risk score in the Swiss population.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive accuracy of the original and recalibrated Framingham risk function on current morbidity from coronary heart disease (CHD) and mortality data from the Swiss population. METHODS: Data from the CoLaus study, a cross-sectional, population-based study conducted between 2003 and 2006 on 5,773 participants aged 35-74 without CHD were used to recalibrate the Framingham risk function. The predicted number of events from each risk function were compared with those issued from local MONICA incidence rates and official mortality data from Switzerland. RESULTS: With the original risk function, 57.3%, 21.2%, 16.4% and 5.1% of men and 94.9%, 3.8%, 1.2% and 0.1% of women were at very low (<6%), low (6-10%), intermediate (10-20%) and high (>20%) risk, respectively. With the recalibrated risk function, the corresponding values were 84.7%, 10.3%, 4.3% and 0.6% in men and 99.5%, 0.4%, 0.0% and 0.1% in women, respectively. The number of CHD events over 10 years predicted by the original Framingham risk function was 2-3 fold higher than predicted by mortality+case fatality or by MONICA incidence rates (men: 191 vs. 92 and 51 events, respectively). The recalibrated risk function provided more reasonable estimates, albeit slightly overestimated (92 events, 5-95th percentile: 26-223 events); sensitivity analyses showed that the magnitude of the overestimation was between 0.4 and 2.2 in men, and 0.7 and 3.3 in women. CONCLUSION: The recalibrated Framingham risk function provides a reasonable alternative to assess CHD risk in men, but not in women.

Assessment of a five-year survival on hemodialysis in Brazil: a cohort of 3,082 incident patients

Brazil has the third largest contingent of patients on maintenance hemodialysis (HD) worldwide. However, little is known regarding survival rate and predictors of mortality risk in that population, which are the purposes of this study. A total of 3,082 patients incident on HD, from 2000 to 2004, at 25 dialysis facilities distributed among 7 out of 26 states of Brazil were followed-up until 2009. Patients were 52 ± 16 years-old, 57.8% men, and 20.4%, diabetics. The primary outcome was all causes of mortality. Data were censored at five years of follow-up. The global five-year survival rate was 58.2%. In the Cox proportional model, variables associated with risk of death were: age (hazard ratio - HR = 1.44 per decade, p < 0.0001), diabetes (HR = 1.51, p < 0.0001), serum albumin (HR = 0.76 per g/dL, p = 0.001), creatinine (HR = 0.92 per mg/dL, p < 0.0001), and phosphorus (HR = 1.06 per mg/dL, p = 0.04). The present results show that the mortality rate on HD in this Brazilian cohort was relatively low, but the population is younger and with a lower prevalence of diabetes than the ones reported for developed countries.

The effects of static and diurnally-cycling temperature acclimations on thermal tolerances of rainbow trout, Salmo gairdneri

:ofiedian lethal temperatures ( LT50' s ) were determined for rainbow trout, Salmo gairdnerii, acclimated for a minimum of 21 days at 5 c onstant temperatures between 4 and 20 0 C. and 2 diel temperature fluctuations ( sinewave curves of amplitudes ± 4 and ± 7 0 C. about a mean temperature of 12 0 C. ) . Twenty-four-, 48-, and 96-hour LT50 estimates were c alculated f ollowing standard flow-through aquatic bioassay techniques and probi t transformation of mortality data. The phenomenon of delayed thermal mortality was also investigated. Shifts in upper incipient lethal temperature occurred as a result of previous thermal conditioning. It was shown that increases in constant acclimation temperature result in proportional l inear increases in thermal tolerances. The increase i n estimated 96-hour LT50's was approximately 0.13 0 c. X 1 0 C:1 between 8 and 20 0 C. The effect of acclimation to both cyclic temperature regimes was an increase in LT50 to values between the mean and maximum constant equivalent daily temperatures of the cycles. Twenty-four-, 48-, and 96-hour LT50 estimates of both cycles corresponded approximately to the LT50 values of the 16 0 C. c onstant temperature equivalent . This increase i n thermal tolerance was further demonstrated by the delayed thermal mortality experiments . Cycle amplitudes appeared to i nfluence thermal resistance through alterations in initi al mortality since mortality patterns characteristic of base temperature acclimations re-appeared after approximately 68 hours exposure to test temperatures for the 12 + 4 0 C. group, whereas mortality patterns stabilized and remained constant for a period greater than 192 hours with the larger therma l cycle ( 12 + 7 0 C. ). NO s ignificant corre lations between s pecimen weight and time-to-death was apparent. Data are discussed in relation to the establishment of thermal criteria for important commercial and sport fishes , such as the salmonids , as is the question whether previously reported values on lethal temperature s may have been under estimated.

Estimation de la mortalité évitable au Québec de 1981-1985 à 2005-2009

La progression de l’espérance de vie au Québec reflète l’amélioration de la santé de la population. Toutefois, des décès continuent à survenir prématurément avant l’âge de 75 ans. Une part de cette mortalité prématurée est potentiellement évitable. L'objectif de ce mémoire est d’estimer la mortalité évitable au Québec de 1981-1985 à 2005-2009. Pour cela, la méthode de Tobias et Jackson (2001) a été appliquée sur des données de décès, fournies par l’Institut national de santé publique du Québec, pour estimer les taux de mortalité évitable totale et pour chacun des sexes. Cette approche nous a, par ailleurs, permis d’estimer des taux de mortalité évitable selon trois paliers de prévention : primaire, secondaire et tertiaire. Nos résultats démontrent une tendance à la baisse de la mortalité évitable à travers le temps. Cette baisse a été enregistrée chez les deux sexes, mais des disparités de mortalité évitable existent entre les hommes et les femmes. En effet, la mortalité évitable des hommes est plus élevée que celle des femmes et cet écart de mortalité est principalement dû à la mortalité évitable associée à la prévention primaire. L’analyse de la mortalité évitable par cause de décès fait ressortir que le cancer du poumon est la principale cause de décès évitable tant chez les hommes que chez les femmes en 2005-2009. Durant cette même période, le cancer du sein et les cardiopathies ischémiques étaient la deuxième cause de décès évitable respectivement chez les femmes et chez les hommes.

Hypertension artérielle dans la population adulte du Burkina Faso : prévalence, détection, traitement et contrôle

Contexte : L’hypertension artérielle (HTA) est reconnue comme un important facteur de risque des maladies cardiovasculaires et de la mortalité prématurée. Les données montrent qu’un adulte sur 4 dans le monde souffrait d’hypertension en 2000 et ce chiffre serait en augmentation. Dans les pays africains, les estimations prévoient une progression plus rapide de la prévalence de l’HTA engendrant ainsi un problème additionnel à gérer pour le système de santé qui est toujours aux prises avec les maladies transmissibles. Les progrès économiques et l’urbanisation semblent entraîner des modifications des habitudes de vie dans ces pays qui seraient associés à une émergence des maladies non transmissibles, dont l’HTA. Le Burkina Faso, pays de l’Afrique de l’Ouest classé comme un pays à faibles revenus, aurait amorcé sa transition épidémiologique et il importe de faire un état sur les maladies non transmissibles en émergence. Afin de contribuer à la connaissance des aspects épidémiologiques de l’HTA au Burkina Faso, trois objectifs spécifiques ont été retenus pour la présente recherche : 1) Estimer la prévalence de l’HTA et identifier les facteurs associés dans la population rurale et la population semi-urbaine du Système de Surveillance démographique et de Santé de Kaya (Kaya HDSS) ; 2) Déterminer la différence de prévalence de l’HTA entre la zone lotie et la zone non lotie de la ville de Ouagadougou et identifier les facteurs associés ; 3) Déterminer la détection, le traitement, le contrôle de l’HTA et estimer la fréquentation des centres de santé par les personnes hypertendues nouvellement dépistées dans la population adulte du Centre Nord du Burkina Faso. Méthodologie : Le cadre de notre recherche est le Burkina Faso. Deux sites ont fait l’objet de nos investigations. Kaya HDSS, situé dans la région du Centre Nord du Burkina Faso a servi de site pour les enquêtes ayant permis l’atteinte du premier et du troisième objectif général. Une étude transversale a été menée en fin 2012 sur un échantillon aléatoire de 1645 adultes résidents du site. Un entretien suivi de mesures anthropométriques et de la pression artérielle (PA) ont été réalisés au domicile des participants. Toutes les personnes qui avaient une PA élevée (PA systolique ≥ 140 mm Hg et/ou PA diastolique ≥ 90 mm Hg) et qui n’avaient pas été diagnostiquées auparavant ont été référées à une formation sanitaire. Un second entretien a été réalisé avec ces personnes environ un mois après. Pour le second objectif général, c’est le système de surveillance démographique et de santé de Ouagadougou (Ouaga HDSS) qui a été retenu comme site. Ouaga HDSS couvre 5 quartiers de la zone nord de Ouagadougou. Une étude transversale a été réalisée en 2010 sur un échantillon aléatoire représentatif de la population adulte résidante du site (N = 2041). Des entretiens suivis de mesures anthropométriques et de la PA ont été réalisés durant l’enquête. Résultats : Notre premier article examine la prévalence de l’HTA et les facteurs associés en milieu rural et en milieu semi-urbain. Au total 1481 participants ont été dépistés et la prévalence totale pondérée était de 9,4 % (95 % IC : 7,3 % - 11,4 %) avec une grande différence entre le milieu semi-urbain et le milieu rural : un adulte sur 10 était hypertendu en milieu semi-urbain contre un adulte sur 20 en milieu rural. L’analyse multivariée nous a permis d’identifier l’âge avancé, le milieu semi-urbain et l’histoire familiale de l’HTA comme des facteurs de risque. Dans le deuxième article, nous avons déterminé la différence entre la zone lotie et la zone non lotie du milieu urbain en ce qui concerne l’HTA. Sur 2 041 adultes enquêtés, la prévalence totale est estimée à 18,6 % (95 % IC : 16,9 % - 20,3 %). Après ajustement avec l’âge, il n’y avait pas de différence de prévalence entre la zone lotie et la zone non lotie de la ville de Ouagadougou. Dans ce milieu urbain, l’obésité et l’inactivité physique sont confirmées comme des facteurs à risque. En plus des personnes âgées qui constituent un groupe à risque, les migrants venant du milieu rural et les veuves ont été identifiés comme des personnes à risque. Notre troisième article examine la détection, le traitement, le contrôle de l’HTA ainsi que la fréquentation des structures de santé par les personnes nouvellement dépistées hypertendues dans le milieu non urbain. Sur les 1481 participants à l’étude, 41 % n’avaient jamais mesuré leur PA. Sur les 123 participants (9,4 %) dépistés comme hypertendus, 26,8 % avaient déjà bénéficié d’un diagnostic et 75,8 % de ces derniers étaient sous traitement anti hypertensif. Parmi les participants sous traitement, 60 % (15 sur 25) avaient leur PA sous contrôle. Le suivi de 2 mois a permis de retrouver 72 des 90 personnes nouvellement dépistées. Seulement 50 % ont été en consultation et parmi ces derniers 76 % (28 personnes sur les 37) ont reçu une confirmation de leur hypertension. Conclusion : Notre recherche montre l’évolution de l’HTA en fonction du niveau d’urbanisation de la population. Même si les maladies infectieuses restent la priorité du système de santé, la lutte contre l’HTA doit s’inscrire dans un cadre général de lutte contre les maladies cardiovasculaires. Cette lutte doit être amorcée maintenant avant que des proportions inquiétantes ne soient atteintes. Des actions de prévention telles que la promotion de saines habitudes de vie, le dépistage de masse et un renforcement des capacités du système de soins sont à mettre en œuvre.

Nonparametric Estimation of Survivor Function in Bivariate Competing Risk Models’

So far, in the bivariate set up, the analysis of lifetime (failure time) data with multiple causes of failure is done by treating each cause of failure separately. with failures from other causes considered as independent censoring. This approach is unrealistic in many situations. For example, in the analysis of mortality data on married couples one would be interested to compare the hazards for the same cause of death as well as to check whether death due to one cause is more important for the partners’ risk of death from other causes. In reliability analysis. one often has systems with more than one component and many systems. subsystems and components have more than one cause of failure. Design of high-reliability systems generally requires that the individual system components have extremely high reliability even after long periods of time. Knowledge of the failure behaviour of a component can lead to savings in its cost of production and maintenance and. in some cases, to the preservation of human life. For the purpose of improving reliability. it is necessary to identify the cause of failure down to the component level. By treating each cause of failure separately with failures from other causes considered as independent censoring, the analysis of lifetime data would be incomplete. Motivated by this. we introduce a new approach for the analysis of bivariate competing risk data using the bivariate vector hazard rate of Johnson and Kotz (1975).

The effectiveness of community-based interventions to improve maternal and infant health in the Northeast of Brazil

EMOND, Alan et al. The effectiveness of community-based interventions to improve maternal and infant health in the Northeast of Brazil. Revista Panamericana de Salud Pública/ Pan American Journal of Public Health , v.12, n.2, p.101-110, 2002

Mortalidade de adolescentes em área urbana da região Sudeste do Brasil, 1984-1993

Analisa-se a mortalidade de adolescentes no Município de Botucatu, Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, no período de 1984 a 1993, segundo dois subgrupos (10 a 14 e 15 a 19 anos), sexo, ocupação e causas de óbito. Os dados de óbitos foram obtidos no Setor de Estatística do Centro de Saúde-Escola. As estimativas populacionais foram calculadas com base nos censos demográficos. Observou-se variação dos coeficientes de mortalidade nos diferentes anos e maior mortalidade no grupo masculino de 15 a 19 anos, atingindo tanto estudantes como trabalhadores. Houve predomínio de causas externas de mortalidade, principalmente acidentes de trânsito e ferimento por arma de fogo, exigindo averigüação de seus determinantes e o desenvolvimento de programas de saúde destinados aos adolescentes, suas famílias e à sociedade, considerando-se que as causas de morte são evitáveis e preveníveis.

Aspectos epidemiológicos da tuberculose pulmonar nos municípios de Botucatu, Conchas, São Manuel e Avaré, Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, de 1963 a 1972

O diagnóstico da situação da tuberculose pulmonar nos Municípios de Botucatu, Conchas, São Manuel e Avaré, SP, Brasil, baseou-se na prevalência e risco de infecção em escolares de lª série, em 1972, e em dados de morbidade e mortalidade específica, de 1963 a 1972. Realizou-se inquérito tuberculínico em 2.913 escolares, com PPD 23 RT-2UT; foram analisados os prontuários de 718 casos inscritos no CSI de Botucatu e os atestados de óbito de residentes, incluindo-se os ocorridos em hospitais especializados. As taxas de prevalência de infecção para os quatro Municípios foram respectivamente 2,4%; 6,8%; 1,9% e 4,5%. Para a idade de 7,5 anos, os riscos de infecção foram: 0,27%; 0,32; 0,20% e 0,34%. O nível de infecção apurado caracterizou o conjunto como área de média prevalência da tuberculose pulmonar. Os índices de prevalência de infecção relacionaram-se diretamente à incidência de casos bacilíferos de cada Município. em 530 casos com baciloscopia, houve 62,0% de positividade. As formas radiológicas moderada e avançada predominaram principalmente em adultos jovens do sexo masculino. Foram registradas alta taxa de abandono (39,5%}, baixo percentual de cura (17,9%) e 3,4% de óbitos; ao redor de 32,0% estava em tratamento. Não houve diferenças estatisticamente significativas das proporções de abandono, segundo procedência por Município ou formas da doença. Invocaram-se razões técnico-administrativas do sistema vigente para explicar esses achados. A incidência média de casos confirmados, no período, foi de 35,4 em Conchas, 33,1 em Avaré, 23,7 em Botucatu e 18,5 em São Manuel (por 100.000). Com casos confirmados e suspeitos os índices foram: 57,6; 48,8; 43,8 e 35,3. Os índices médio-anuais de mortalidade, foram: 7,6 em Botucatu, 12,14 em Conchas, 5,0 em São Manuel e 18,7 em Avaré (por 100.000). Apenas em Botucatu registrou-se declínio das taxas de mortalidade de 1963 a 1972. A mortalidade específica em adultos jovens ainda era elevada, predominando no sexo masculino, principalmente em Conchas. Sublinhou-se a necessidade de descentralizar as atividades antituberculose para atingir um controle eficiente.

De que adoecem e morrem as mulheres em São Paulo

O estudo traça um perfil da morbi-mortalidade feminina no Estado de São Paulo, com enfoque nos problemas reprodutivos. A mortalidade foi estudada nos períodos 1979-81; 1986-88 e 1993-5, a partir do Sistema de Informação em Mortalidade (SIM/DATASUS) e a morbidade de 1996 foi obtida do Sistema de Informações Hospitalares (SIH/DATASUS). O artigo discute as principais causas de internação e morte das mulheres e aponta os desafios para as políticas públicas voltadas a saúde da mulher.

Abortion and background radiation in Brazil

It is well known that radiation causes mutation, and that mutations are generally deleterious. They can lead to disease, malformation and death. It is further known that we live in a radioactive world. The air, the soil, the water, the food, all are somewhat radioactive. Natural radiation is not uniformly distributed throughout the earth's crust. There are some areas, especially in Brazil and India, where the levels of background radiation are several times higher than generally obtains. We have undertaken a specially prepared house-to-house genetic-epidemiologic, retrospective survey in a large Brazilian area with levels of natural radiation ranging from 7 (normal) to 133 (high) micro-roentgens per hour. In all, 24 different localities were surveyed during a period of 10 months by a trained team of nurses and social assistants. Our total sample consists of more than 8,000 couples who have had almost 44,000 pregnancy terminations. Our results do not disprove that natural radiation is one of the causes of socalled spontaneous mutations. They only show that, under the conditions of this study, no detectable effect on abortion was found. Our results also attest to the importance of extraneous variables in the analysis of morbidity and mortality data.

Performance, survivability and carcass traits of crossbred lambs from five paternal breeds with local hair breed Santa Inês ewes

The present study aimed to evaluate the performance, survivability and carcass traits of crossbred lambs. Data from 299 lambs born to 209 ewes were used. The dams were from a local hair breed (Santa Inês) and five breeds of sires were used: Dorper (DR), Ile de France (IF), Hampshire Down (HD), Texel (TX) and Santa Inês (SI). The lambs were weighed at birth, weaning and slaughter. Fasting body weight, skin thickness, hot and cold carcass weight, carcass yield and carcass length were measured at slaughter. Carcasses were separated into commercial cuts: neck, shoulder, rib, belly, loin and leg. Leg length and circumference were measured. Analyses of variances using MIXED procedure in SAS® were carried out for weights and carcass traits. Factor, discriminant and canonical analysis were carried out. Mortality data of animals from birth until slaughter was analyzed using logistic regression. The HD animals had the highest mortality rate. TX lambs had similar growth rate and survivability compared to DR and IF and had better carcass traits than these genetic groups. Therefore, this breed can be used as paternal breed to crossbreeding with Santa Inês dams. Santa Inês animals did not differ in growth from birth until slaughter compared to crossbred animals, which highlights the potential of this naturalized breed for meat production. Moreover, there is a great variability inside this breed for carcass and growth traits which may undergo great improvement through selection programs. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.