Rising temperatures increased recruitment of brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus) in Moreton Bay (Australia)

Abiotic factors are fundamental drivers of the dynamics of wild marine fish populations. Identifying and quantifying their influence on species targeted by the fishing industry is difficult and very important for managing fisheries in a changing climate. Using multiple regression, we investigated the influence of both temperature and rainfall on the variability of recruitment of a tropical species, the brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus), in Moreton Bay which is located near the southern limit of its distribution on the east coast of Australia. A step-wise selection between environmental variables identified that variations in recruitment from 1990 to 2014 were best explained by a combination of temperature and spawning stock biomass. Temperature explains 35% of recruitment variability and spawning stock biomass 33%. This analysis suggests that increasing temperatures have increased recruitment of brown tiger prawn in Moreton Bay.

Impact of reducing investment disincentives on the sustainability of the Moreton Bay prawn trawl fishery

The Moreton Bay prawn trawl fishery is one of Queensland’s oldest commercial fisheries, but is currently economically unsustainable. The fishery is characterized by a mix of large and small vessels, with the small vessels facing different licensing and boat replacement restrictions to the large. Industry have proposed the removal of the current two-for-one boat replacement policy that affects the smaller vessels to encourage investment and replacement by larger vessels, although there is concern by managers about the impact of this on total fishing effort and sustainability of the stocks, despite the existence of a total cap in vessel capacity units. We estimate the impact of removing the boat replacement policy for the smaller vessels on fleet performance and total fishing effort, and find that removing the boat replacement policy is unlikely to result in a substantial increase in fishing effort due to the existence of a vessel unitization scheme.

Addressing sustainable living using a collaborative approach and multi-disciplinary techniques

In order to achieve meaningful reductions in individual ecological footprints, individuals must dramatically alter their day to day behaviours. Effective interventions will need to be evidence based and there is a necessity for the rapid transfer or communication of information from the point of research, into policy and practice. A number of health disciplines, including psychology and public health, share a common mission to promote health and well-being and it is becoming clear that the most practical pathway to achieving this mission is through interdisciplinary collaboration. This paper argues that an interdisciplinary collaborative approach will facilitate research that results in the rapid transfer of findings into policy and practice. The application of this approach is described in relation to the Green Living project which explored the psycho-social predictors of environmentally friendly behaviour. Following a qualitative pilot study, and in consultation with an expert panel comprising academics, industry professionals and government representatives, a self-administered mail survey was distributed to a random sample of 3000 residents of Brisbane and Moreton Bay (Queensland, Australia). The Green Living survey explored specific beliefs which included attitudes, norms, perceived control, intention and behaviour, as well as a number of other constructs such as environmental concern and altruism. This research has two beneficial outcomes. First, it will inform a practical model for predicting sustainable living behaviours and a number of local councils have already expressed an interest in making use of the results as part of their ongoing community engagement programs. Second, it provides an example of how a collaborative interdisciplinary project can provide a more comprehensive approach to research than can be accomplished by a single disciplinary project.

A Bayesian network approach to modelling temporal behaviour of Lyngbya majuscula bloom initiation

Lyngbya majuscula is a cyanobacterium (blue-green algae) occurring naturally in tropical and subtropical coastal areas worldwide. Deception Bay, in Northern Moreton Bay, Queensland, has a history of Lyngbya blooms, and forms a case study for this investigation. The South East Queensland (SEQ) Healthy Waterways Partnership, collaboration between government, industry, research and the community, was formed to address issues affecting the health of the river catchments and waterways of South East Queensland. The Partnership coordinated the Lyngbya Research and Management Program (2005-2007) which culminated in a Coastal Algal Blooms (CAB) Action Plan for harmful and nuisance algal blooms, such as Lyngbya majuscula. This first phase of the project was predominantly of a scientific nature and also facilitated the collection of additional data to better understand Lyngbya blooms. The second phase of this project, SEQ Healthy Waterways Strategy 2007-2012, is now underway to implement the CAB Action Plan and as such is more management focussed. As part of the first phase of the project, a Science model for the initiation of a Lyngbya bloom was built using Bayesian Networks (BN). The structure of the Science Bayesian Network was built by the Lyngbya Science Working Group (LSWG) which was drawn from diverse disciplines. The BN was then quantified with annual data and expert knowledge. Scenario testing confirmed the expected temporal nature of bloom initiation and it was recommended that the next version of the BN be extended to take this into account. Elicitation for this BN thus occurred at three levels: design, quantification and verification. The first level involved construction of the conceptual model itself, definition of the nodes within the model and identification of sources of information to quantify the nodes. The second level included elicitation of expert opinion and representation of this information in a form suitable for inclusion in the BN. The third and final level concerned the specification of scenarios used to verify the model. The second phase of the project provides the opportunity to update the network with the newly collected detailed data obtained during the previous phase of the project. Specifically the temporal nature of Lyngbya blooms is of interest. Management efforts need to be directed to the most vulnerable periods to bloom initiation in the Bay. To model the temporal aspects of Lyngbya we are using Object Oriented Bayesian networks (OOBN) to create ‘time slices’ for each of the periods of interest during the summer. OOBNs provide a framework to simplify knowledge representation and facilitate reuse of nodes and network fragments. An OOBN is more hierarchical than a traditional BN with any sub-network able to contain other sub-networks. Connectivity between OOBNs is an important feature and allows information flow between the time slices. This study demonstrates more sophisticated use of expert information within Bayesian networks, which combine expert knowledge with data (categorized using expert-defined thresholds) within an expert-defined model structure. Based on the results from the verification process the experts are able to target areas requiring greater precision and those exhibiting temporal behaviour. The time slices incorporate the data for that time period for each of the temporal nodes (instead of using the annual data from the previous static Science BN) and include lag effects to allow the effect from one time slice to flow to the next time slice. We demonstrate a concurrent steady increase in the probability of initiation of a Lyngbya bloom and conclude that the inclusion of temporal aspects in the BN model is consistent with the perceptions of Lyngbya behaviour held by the stakeholders. This extended model provides a more accurate representation of the increased risk of algal blooms in the summer months and show that the opinions elicited to inform a static BN can be readily extended to a dynamic OOBN, providing more comprehensive information for decision makers.