Monetary policy rules and estimated reaction functions for the European Central Bank

This thesis studies the interest-rate policy of the ECB by estimating monetary policy rules using real-time data and central bank forecasts. The aim of the estimations is to try to characterize a decade of common monetary policy and to look at how different models perform at this task.The estimated rules include: contemporary Taylor rules, forward-looking Taylor rules, nonlinearrules and forecast-based rules. The nonlinear models allow for the possibility of zone-like preferences and an asymmetric response to key variables. The models therefore encompass the most popular sub-group of simple models used for policy analysis as well as the more unusual non-linear approach. In addition to the empirical work, this thesis also contains a more general discussion of monetary policy rules mostly from a New Keynesian perspective. This discussion includes an overview of some notable related studies, optimal policy, policy gradualism and several other related subjects. The regression estimations are performed with either least squares or the generalized method of moments depending on the requirements of the estimations. The estimations use data from both the Euro Area Real-Time Database and the central bank forecasts published in ECB Monthly Bulletins. These data sources represent some of the best data that is available for this kind of analysis. The main results of this thesis are that forward-looking behavior appears highly prevalent, but that standard forward-looking Taylor rules offer only ambivalent results with regard to inflation. Nonlinear models are shown to work, but on the other hand do not have a strong rationale over a simpler linear formulation. However, the forecasts appear to be highly useful in characterizing policy and may offer the most accurate depiction of a predominantly forward-looking central bank. In particular the inflation response appears much stronger while the output response becomes highly forward-looking as well.

Temperature dependent free energy surface of polymer folding from equilibrium and quench studies

Langevin dynamics simulation studies have been employed to calculate the temperature dependent free energy surface and folding characteristics of a 500 monomer long linear alkane (polyethylene) chain with a realistic interaction potential. Both equilibrium and temperature quench simulation studies have been carried out. Using the shape anisotropy parameter (S) of the folded molecule as the order parameter, we find a weakly first order phase transition between the high-temperature molten globule and low-temperature rodlike crystalline states separated by a small barrier of the order of k(B)T. Near the melting temperature (580 K), we observe an intriguing intermittent fluctuation with pronounced ``1/f noise characteristics'' between these two states with large difference in shape and structure. We have also studied the possibilities of different pathways of folding to states much below the melting point. At 300 K starting from the all-trans linear configuration, the chain folds stepwise into a very regular fourfold crystallite with very high shape anisotropy. Whereas, when quenched from a high temperature (900 K) random coil regime, we identify a two step transition from the random coiled state to a molten globulelike state and, further, to a anisotropic rodlike state. The trajectory reveals an interesting coupling between the two order parameters, namely, radius of gyration (R-g) and the shape anisotropy parameter (S). The rodlike final state of the quench trajectory is characterized by lower shape anisotropy parameter and significantly larger number of gauche defects as compared to the final state obtained through equilibrium simulation starting from all-trans linear chain. The quench study shows indication of a nucleationlike pathway from the molten globule to the rodlike state involving an underlying rugged energy landscape. (C) 2010 American Institute of Physics. doi:10.1063/1.3509398]

Out-of-equilibrium microrheology using optical tweezers to probe directional viscoelastic properties under shear

Many wormlike micellar systems exhibit appreciable shear thinning due to shear-induced alignment. As the micelles get aligned introducing directionality in the system, the viscoelastic properties are no longer expected to be isotropic. An optical-tweezers-based active microrheology technique enables us to probe the out-of-equilibrium rheological properties of a wormlike micellar system simultaneously along two orthogonal directions-parallel to the applied shear, as well as perpendicular to it. While the displacements of a trapped bead in response to active drag force carry signature of conventional shear thinning, its spontaneous position fluctuations along the perpendicular direction manifest an orthogonal shear thickening, an effect hitherto unobserved. Copyright (C) EPLA, 2010

Lattice embedding and equilibrium geometry of metal-halogen chains in the two-band extended Hubbard model

Two-band extended Hubbard model studies show that the shift in optical gap of the metal-halogen (MX) chain upon embedding in a crystalline environment depends upon alternation in the site-diagonal electron-lattice interaction parameter (epsilon(M)) and the strength of electron-electron interactions at the metal site (U(M)). The equilibrium geometry studies on isolated chains show that the MX chains tend to distort for alternating epsilon(M) and small U(M) values.

The Equations of Equilibrium in Orthogonal Curvilinear Reference Coordinates

Analytical solutions to problems in finite elasticity are most often derived using the semi-inverse approach along with the spatial form of the equations of motion involving the Cauchy stress tensor. This procedure is somewhat indirect since the spatial equations involve derivatives with respect to spatial coordinates while the unknown functions are in terms of material coordinates, thus necessitating the use of the chain rule. In this classroom note, we derive compact expressions for the components of the divergence, with respect to orthogonal material coordinates, of the first Piola-Kirchhoff stress tensor. The spatial coordinate system is also assumed to be an orthogonal curvilinear one, although, not necessarily of the same type as the material coordinate system. We show by means of some example applications how analytical solutions can be derived more directly using the derived results.

Nonneutral network and the role of bargaining power in side payments

Representatives of several Internet access providers have expressed their wish to see a substantial change in the pricing policies of the Internet. In particular, they would like to see content providers pay for use of the network, given the large amount of resources they use. This would be in clear violation of the �network neutrality� principle that had characterized the development of the wireline Internet. Our first goal in this paper is to propose and study possible ways of implementing such payments and of regulating their amount. We introduce a model that includes the internaut�s behavior, the utilities of the ISP and of the content providers, and the monetary flow that involves the internauts, the ISP and content provider, and in particular, the content provider�s revenues from advertisements. We consider various game models and study the resulting equilibrium; they are all combinations of a noncooperative game (in which the service and content providers determine how much they will charge the internauts) with a cooperative one - the content provider and the service provider bargain with each other over payments to one another. We include in our model a possible asymmetric bargaining power which is represented by a parameter (that varies between zero to one). We then extend our model to study the case of several content providers. We also provide a very brief study of the equilibria that arise when one of the content providers enters into an exclusive contract with the ISP.

Numerical modeling of heat and mass transfer in laser surface alloying: Non-equilibrium solidification effects

A transient macroscopic model is developed for studying heat and mass transfer in a single-pass laser surface alloying process, with particular emphasis on non-equilibrium solidification considerations. The solution for species concentration distribution requires suitable treatment of non-equilibrium mass transfer conditions. In this context, microscopic features pertaining to non-equilibrium effects on account of solutal undercooling are incorporated through the formulation of a modified partition-coefficient. The effective partition-coefficient is numerically modeled by Means of a number of macroscopically observable parameters related to the solidifying domain. The numerical model is so developed that the modifications on account of non-equilibrium solidification considerations can be conveniently implemented in existing numerical codes based on equilibrium solidification considerations.

Symmetry-breaking transitions in equilibrium shapes of coherent precipitates: Effect of elastic anisotropy and inhomogeneity

We examine the symmetry-breaking transitions in equilibrium shapes of coherent precipitates in two-dimensional (2-D) systems under a plane-strain condition with the principal misfit strain components epsilon(xx)*. and epsilon(yy)*. For systems with cubic elastic moduli, we first show all the shape transitions associated with different values of t = epsilon(yy)*/epsilon(xx)*. We also characterize each of these transitions, by studying its dependence on elastic anisotropy and inhomogeneity. For systems with dilatational misfit (t = 1) and those with pure shear misfit (t = -1), the transition is from an equiaxed shape to an elongated shape, resulting in a break in rotational symmetry. For systems with nondilatational misfit (-1 < t < 1; t not equal 0), the transition involves a break in mirror symmetries normal to the x- and y-axes. The transition is continuous in all cases, except when 0 < t < 1. For systems which allow an invariant line (-1 less than or equal to t < 0), the critical size increases with an increase in the particle stiffness. However, for systems which do not allow an invariant line (0 < t less than or equal to 1), the critical size first decreases, reaches a minimum, and then starts increasing with increasing particle stiffness; moreover, the transition is also forbidden when the particle stiffness is greater than a critical value.

Equilibrium and relaxation in turbulent wakes

In order to study the memory of the larger eddies in turbulent shear flow, experiments have been conducted on plane turbulent wakes undergoing transition from an initial (carefully prepared) equilibrium state to a different final one, as a result of a nearly impulsive pressure gradient. It is shown that under the conditions of the experiments the equations of motion possess self-preserving solutions in the sense of Townsend (1956), but the observed behaviour of the wake is appreciably different when the pressure gradient is not very small, as the flow goes through a slow relaxation process before reaching final equilibrium. Measurements of the Reynolds stresse show that the approach to a new equilibrium state is exponential, with a relaxation length of the order of 103 momentum thicknesses. It is suggested that a flow satisfying the conditions required by a self-preservation analysis will exhibit equilibrium only if the relaxation length is small compared with a characteristic streamwise length scale of the flow.

Turbulence measurements in an ‘equilibrium’ axisymmetric wall jet Journal

This paper reports measurements of turbulent quantities in an axisymmetric wall jet subjected to an adverse pressure gradient in a conical diffuser, in such a way that a suitably defined pressure-gradient parameter is everywhere small. Self-similarity is observed in the mean velocity profile, as well as the profiles of many turbulent quantities at sufficiently large distances from the injection slot. Autocorrelation measurements indicate that, in the region of turbulent production, the time scale of ν fluctuations is very much smaller than the time scale of u fluctuations. Based on the data on these time scales, a possible model is proposed for the Reynolds stress. One-dimensional energy spectra are obtained for the u, v and w components at several points in the wall jet. It is found that self-similarity is exhibited by the one-dimensional wavenumber spectrum of $\overline{q^2}(=\overline{u^2}+\overline{v^2}+\overline{w^2})$, if the half-width of the wall jet and the local mean velocity are used for forming the non-dimensional wavenumber. Both the autocorrelation curves and the spectra indicate the existence of periodicity in the flow. The rate of dissipation of turbulent energy is estimated from the $\overline{q^2}$ spectra, using a slightly modified version of a previously suggested method.