Towards global drought early warning capability: expanding international cooperation for the development of a framework for global drought monitoring and forecasting

Drought is a global problem that has far-reaching impacts and especially 47 on vulnerable populations in developing regions. This paper highlights the need for a Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS), the elements that constitute its underlying framework (GDEWF) and the recent progress made towards its development. Many countries lack drought monitoring systems, as well as the capacity to respond via appropriate political, institutional and technological frameworks, and these have inhibited the development of integrated drought management plans or early warning systems. The GDEWS will provide a source of drought tools and products via the GDEWF for countries and regions to develop tailored drought early warning systems for their own users. A key goal of a GDEWS is to maximize the lead time for early warning, allowing drought managers and disaster coordinators more time to put mitigation measures in place to reduce the vulnerability to drought. To address this, the GDEWF will take both a top-down approach to provide global real-time drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting, and a bottom-up approach that builds upon existing national and regional systems to provide continental to global coverage. A number of challenges must be overcome, however, before a GDEWS can become a reality, including the lack of in-situ measurement networks and modest seasonal forecast skill in many regions, and the lack of infrastructure to translate data into useable information. A set of international partners, through a series of recent workshops and evolving collaborations, has made progress towards meeting these challenges and developing a global system.

The interactive responses of water quality and hydrology to changes in multiple stressors, and implications for the long-term effective management of phosphorus

Soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) plays a key role in eutrophication, a global problem decreasing habitat quality and in-stream biodiversity. Mitigation strategies are required to prevent SRP fluxes from exceeding critical levels, and must be robust in the face of potential changes in climate, land use and a myriad of other influences. To establish the longevity of these strategies it is therefore crucial to consider the sensitivity of catchments to multiple future stressors. This study evaluates how the water quality and hydrology of a major river system in the UK (the River Thames) respond to alterations in climate, land use and water resource allocations, and investigates how these changes impact the relative performance of management strategies over an 80-year period. In the River Thames, the relative contributions of SRP from diffuse and point sources vary seasonally. Diffuse sources of SRP from agriculture dominate during periods of high runoff, and point sources during low flow periods. SRP concentrations rose under any future scenario which either increased a) surface runoff or b) the area of cultivated land. Under these conditions, SRP was sourced from agriculture, and the most effective single mitigation measures were those which addressed diffuse SRP sources. Conversely, where future scenarios reduced flow e.g. during winters of reservoir construction, the significance of point source inputs increased, and mitigation measures addressing these issues became more effective. In catchments with multiple point and diffuse sources of SRP, an all-encompassing effective mitigation approach is difficult to achieve with a single strategy. In order to attain maximum efficiency, multiple strategies might therefore be employed at different times and locations, to target the variable nature of dominant SRP sources and pathways.

Time valued life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from buildings

The UK has adopted legally binding carbon reduction targets of 34% by 2020 and 80% by 2050 (measured against the 1990 baseline). Buildings are estimated to be responsible for more than 50% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the UK. These consist of both operational, produced during use, and embodied, produced during manufacture of materials and components, and during construction, refurbishments and demolition. A brief assessment suggests that it is unlikely that UK emission reduction targets can be met without substantial reductions in both Oc and Ec. Oc occurs over the lifetime of a building whereas the bulk of Ec occurs at the start of a building’s life. A time value for emissions could influence the decision making process when it comes to comparing mitigation measures which have benefits that occur at different times. An example might be the choice between building construction using low Ec construction materials versus building construction using high Ec construction materials but with lower Oc, although the use of high Ec materials does not necessarily imply a lower Oc. Particular time related issues examined here are: the urgency of the need to achieve large emissions reductions during the next 10 to 20 years; the earlier effective action is taken, the less costly it will be; future reduction in carbon intensity of energy supply; the carbon cycle and relationship between the release of GHG’s and their subsequent concentrations in the atmosphere. An equation is proposed, which weights emissions according to when they occur during the building life cycle, and which effectively increases Ec as a proportion of the total, suggesting that reducing Ec is likely to be more beneficial, in terms of climate change, for most new buildings. Thus, giving higher priority to Ec reductions is likely to result in a bigger positive impact on climate change and mitigation costs.

Characterising phosphorus and nitrate inputs to a rural river using high-frequency concentration-flow relationships

The total reactive phosphorus (TRP) and nitrate concentrations of the River Enborne, southern England, were monitored at hourly interval between January 2010 and December 2011. The relationships between these high-frequency nutrient concentration signals and flow were used to infer changes in nutrient source and dynamics through the annual cycle and each individual storm event, by studying hysteresis patterns. TRP concentrations exhibited strong dilution patterns with increasing flow, and predominantly clockwise hysteresis through storm events. Despite the Enborne catchment being relatively rural for southern England, TRP inputs were dominated by constant, non-rain-related inputs from sewage treatment works (STW) for the majority of the year, producing the highest phosphorus concentrations through the spring–summer growing season. At higher river flows, the majority of the TRP load was derived from within-channel remobilisation of phosphorus from the bed sediment, much of which was also derived from STW inputs. Therefore, future phosphorus mitigation measures should focus on STW improvements. Agricultural diffuse TRP inputs were only evident during storms in the May of each year, probably relating to manure application to land. The nitrate concentration–flow relationship produced a series of dilution curves, indicating major inputs from groundwater and to a lesser extent STW. Significant diffuse agricultural inputs with anticlockwise hysteresis trajectories were observed during the first major storms of the winter period. The simultaneous investigation of high-frequency time series data, concentration–flow relationships and hysteresis behaviour through multiple storms for both phosphorus and nitrate offers a simple and innovative approach for providing new insights into nutrient sources and dynamics.

Climate responses to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate pollutants

Policies to control air quality focus on mitigating emissions of aerosols and their precursors, and other short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). On a local scale, these policies will have beneficial impacts on health and crop yields, by reducing particulate matter (PM) and surface ozone concentrations; however, the climate impacts of reducing emissions of SLCPs are less straightforward to predict. In this paper we consider a set of idealised, extreme mitigation strategies, in which the total anthropogenic emissions of individual SLCP emissions species are removed. This provides an upper bound on the potential climate impacts of such air quality strategies. We focus on evaluating the climate responses to changes in anthropogenic emissions of aerosol precursor species: black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and sulphur dioxide (SO2). We perform climate integrations with four fully coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models (AOGCMs), and examine the effects on global and regional climate of removing the total land-based anthropogenic emissions of each of the three aerosol precursor species. We find that the SO2 emissions reductions lead to the strongest response, with all three models showing an increase in surface temperature focussed in the northern hemisphere high latitudes, and a corresponding increase in global mean precipitation and run-off. Changes in precipitation and run-off patterns are driven mostly by a northward shift in the ITCZ, consistent with the hemispherically asymmetric warming pattern driven by the emissions changes. The BC and OC emissions reductions give a much weaker forcing signal, and there is some disagreement between models in the sign of the climate responses to these perturbations. These differences between models are due largely to natural variability in sea-ice extent, circulation patterns and cloud changes. This large natural variability component to the signal when the ocean circulation and sea-ice are free-running means that the BC and OC mitigation measures do not necessarily lead to a discernible climate response.

Evaluating the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived pollutants

This paper presents a summary of the work done within the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme project ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants). ECLIPSE had a unique systematic concept for designing a realistic and effective mitigation scenario for short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs; methane, aerosols and ozone, and their precursor species) and quantifying its climate and air quality impacts, and this paper presents the results in the context of this overarching strategy. The first step in ECLIPSE was to create a new emission inventory based on current legislation (CLE) for the recent past and until 2050. Substantial progress compared to previous work was made by including previously unaccounted types of sources such as flaring of gas associated with oil production, and wick lamps. These emission data were used for present-day reference simulations with four advanced Earth system models (ESMs) and six chemistry transport models (CTMs). The model simulations were compared with a variety of ground-based and satellite observational data sets from Asia, Europe and the Arctic. It was found that the models still underestimate the measured seasonality of aerosols in the Arctic but to a lesser extent than in previous studies. Problems likely related to the emissions were identified for northern Russia and India, in particular. To estimate the climate impacts of SLCPs, ECLIPSE followed two paths of research: the first path calculated radiative forcing (RF) values for a large matrix of SLCP species emissions, for different seasons and regions independently. Based on these RF calculations, the Global Temperature change Potential metric for a time horizon of 20 years (GTP20) was calculated for each SLCP emission type. This climate metric was then used in an integrated assessment model to identify all emission mitigation measures with a beneficial air quality and short-term (20-year) climate impact. These measures together defined a SLCP mitigation (MIT) scenario. Compared to CLE, the MIT scenario would reduce global methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) emissions by about 50 and 80 %, respectively. For CH4, measures on shale gas production, waste management and coal mines were most important. For non-CH4 SLCPs, elimination of high-emitting vehicles and wick lamps, as well as reducing emissions from gas flaring, coal and biomass stoves, agricultural waste, solvents and diesel engines were most important. These measures lead to large reductions in calculated surface concentrations of ozone and particulate matter. We estimate that in the EU, the loss of statistical life expectancy due to air pollution was 7.5 months in 2010, which will be reduced to 5.2 months by 2030 in the CLE scenario. The MIT scenario would reduce this value by another 0.9 to 4.3 months. Substantially larger reductions due to the mitigation are found for China (1.8 months) and India (11–12 months). The climate metrics cannot fully quantify the climate response. Therefore, a second research path was taken. Transient climate ensemble simulations with the four ESMs were run for the CLE and MIT scenarios, to determine the climate impacts of the mitigation. In these simulations, the CLE scenario resulted in a surface temperature increase of 0.70 ± 0.14 K between the years 2006 and 2050. For the decade 2041–2050, the warming was reduced by 0.22 ± 0.07 K in the MIT scenario, and this result was in almost exact agreement with the response calculated based on the emission metrics (reduced warming of 0.22 ± 0.09 K). The metrics calculations suggest that non-CH4 SLCPs contribute ~ 22 % to this response and CH4 78 %. This could not be fully confirmed by the transient simulations, which attributed about 90 % of the temperature response to CH4 reductions. Attribution of the observed temperature response to non-CH4 SLCP emission reductions and BC specifically is hampered in the transient simulations by small forcing and co-emitted species of the emission basket chosen. Nevertheless, an important conclusion is that our mitigation basket as a whole would lead to clear benefits for both air quality and climate. The climate response from BC reductions in our study is smaller than reported previously, possibly because our study is one of the first to use fully coupled climate models, where unforced variability and sea ice responses cause relatively strong temperature fluctuations that may counteract (and, thus, mask) the impacts of small emission reductions. The temperature responses to the mitigation were generally stronger over the continents than over the oceans, and with a warming reduction of 0.44 K (0.39–0.49) K the largest over the Arctic. Our calculations suggest particularly beneficial climate responses in southern Europe, where surface warming was reduced by about 0.3 K and precipitation rates were increased by about 15 (6–21) mm yr−1 (more than 4 % of total precipitation) from spring to autumn. Thus, the mitigation could help to alleviate expected future drought and water shortages in the Mediterranean area. We also report other important results of the ECLIPSE project.

Cost and time overruns in commercial construction projects : an Australian study

Cost and schedule are two of most important performance indicators of construction projects. Cost escalation and time overruns are typically associated with poor management practices. Cost overruns and delays have huge impacts on construction projects in relation to the costs of a project, the reputation of the parties involved, and the satisfaction of the final product. Therefore, it is imperative to understand the causes of cost and time overruns so that mitigation measures can be set in place. A group of industry professionals in South Australia were surveyed on their perceptions of the factors contributing towards the cost and time overruns in commercial construction projects. The results showed that timeliness of decision making is ranked as the top factor contributing towards delays whereas problems with design is perceived as most influential to the cost overruns. In addition, the questionnaire survey found that different parties, i.e. clients, contractors and consultants have different perceptions on the impacts of these factors. Similarly, the structural frame stage was considered the most critical stage for controlling the time and cost performance during the construction process. Implications are discussed.

Conservative corporate compliance: Reflections on a study of compliance responses by South African banks

While corporate non-compliance receives much attention, conservative and over-compliant responses are often ignored. These responses go beyond what is required by a particular regulatory requirement. In many cases, regulators may support such responses because they advance regulatory objectives. In the context of risk-based regulation and compliance, especially the model implemented by the Financial Action Task Force to combat money laundering and financing of terrorists, that may, however, not necessarily be the case. With this risk-based approach, regulated institutions are required to respond to higher risks by adopting enhanced risk mitigation measures and are allowed to simplify those measures where the risks are assessed as low. Failure in the latter cases to simplify risk mitigation measures where appropriate, may be inefficient and, in some instances, may even undermine regulatory objectives. This article investigates the drivers of conservative responses by South African banks to statutory anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing laws.

Os benefícios de impactar: as mitigações contraditórias do Conselho de Desenvolvimento Urbano do Recife

Esta dissertação estuda as medidas mitigadoras nos processos de licenciamento dos Empreendimentos de Impacto, determinadas pelo Conselho de Desenvolvimento Urbano do Recife – CDU. Busca contribuir com a eficácia da administração pública municipal quanto aos critérios e considerações necessárias para a aprovação de Empreendimentos de Impacto, num contexto do aumento significativo da demanda por essa tipologia de projeto nos órgãos de regulação. Foi analisado o processo de discussão e determinação das diretrizes de mitigação para os Empreendimentos de Impacto na cidade do Recife na última década. A coleta dos dados teve como base a pesquisa documental de legislações e registros oficiais, na tramitação dos projetos, bem como da utilização de entrevistas espontâneas, semiestruturadas, com atores do poder público e sociedade civil. Esclarece o papel e a importância do CDU no processo de gestão democrática, mostrando as características dos Empreendimentos de Impacto, bem como as influências negativas e positivas das diretrizes mitigadoras na qualidade de vida urbana e o entendimento sobre quem é o real beneficiado. As análises constatam que as medidas mitigadoras propostas são ineficazes, pois, são ações compulsórias, ou seja, obrigações legais que o empreendedor deveria cumprir. As diretrizes de compensações são baseadas em diagnósticos inadequados, sem a incorporação de propostas dos grupos sociais afetados e sem avaliações da eficiência das mitigações dirimidas. Na maioria das vezes, apenas servem de incremento local, beneficiando o empreendimento, sem um planejamento macro, desconsiderando o papel da gestão pública no desenvolvimento sustentável da cidade.

Análise da bacia hidrográfica do Rio Punaú-Rio Grande do Norte utilizando ferramentas de geoprocessamento

Provide data and information on watershed becomes important since the knowledge of their physical characteristics, land use, etcetera, allows for better planning and sustainable use of economically, socially and environmentally in this area. The investigation of the physical environment has been commonly given with the use of geoprocessing, which has proved a very efficient tool. Within this context, this research aims at analyzing the river basin Punaú (located in the cities of Touros, Rio do Fogo and Pureza, state of Rio Grande do Norte) in several aspects, using geoprocessing as a tool of work, to provide information about the entire watershed. Specifically, this study aimed to update pre-existing maps, such as geological, geomorphological and land use, generating map of environmental vulnerability, under the aspect of erosion susceptibility of the area, generating map of legal incompatibility, identifying areas that are already being employed in breach of environmental legislation; propose solutions to the occupation of the river basin Punaú, focused on environmental planning. The methodology was based on the use of geoprocessing tools for data analysis and to make maps of legal incompatibility and environmental vulnerability. For the first map was taken into account the environmental legislation regarding the protection of watersheds. For the vulnerability analysis, the generated map was the result of crossing the maps of geology, geomorphology, soils and land use, having been assigned weights to different attributes of thematic maps, generating a map of environmental vulnerability in relation to susceptibility to erosion. The analysis results indicate that agriculture is the most significant activity in the basin, in total occupied area, which confers a high degree of environmental vulnerability in most of the basin, and some agricultural areas eventually develop in a manner inconsistent with Brazilian environmental legislation. It is proposed to consider deploying a measure of revitalization of the watershed in more critical areas and conservation through mitigation measures on the causes of environmental degradation, such as protection of water sources, protection and restoration of riparian vegetation, protection of permanent preservation areas, containment of erosion processes in general, and others listed or not in specific laws, and even the establishment of a committee of basins in the area

Arraias em rios da região Sudeste do Brasil: locais de ocorrência e impactos sobre a população

INTRODUÇÃO: No presente trabalho objetivamos descrever o processo de colonização da Bacia do Alto Paraná, Sudeste do Brasil, por arraias, demonstrando sua atual situação e provável tendência, os impactos gerados e discutindo algumas ações de manejo e medidas mitigadoras. MÉTODOS: Foram realizadas entrevistas com ribeirinhos e profissionais de saúde para o levantamento de informações sobre a ocorrência de arraias e acidentes associados a estes animais, além de coletas e observações subaquáticas de potamotrigonídeos, entre 2004 e 2009, em localidades situadas nos Estados de São Paulo, Paraná e Mato Grosso do Sul, no Sudeste, Sul e parte do Centro-Oeste do Brasil. RESULTADOS: Três espécies de arraias foram identificadas na área de estudo, demonstrando utilizar os caminhos abertos pela Hidrovia Tietê-Paraná para se dispersarem. Dezesseis vítimas de acidentes envolvendo esses animais foram encontradas, notadamente banhistas e pescadores, chamando a atenção pelo fato dos casos não serem notificados e apresentarem elevada morbidade, com marcante incapacidade temporária para o trabalho. CONCLUSÕES: Este é o primeiro relato de invasão biológica envolvendo espécies de elasmobrânquios conhecido na literatura e, pelas arraias estarem colonizando áreas densamente povoadas e ampliando sua área de distribuição a cada ano, é de se esperar que sua interação negativa com humanos se intensifique, provocando alterações importantes no perfil epidemiológico dos acidentes por animais peçonhentos ocorridos no sudeste brasileiro.

Compreensões elaboradas pelo campo da educação ambiental sobre o tema mudanças climáticas: análise de dissertações e teses brasileiras

Pós-graduação em Educação - IBRC

Assessment of the socioeconomic and environmental impact of hurricane Ivan on Jamaica

Includes bibliography

Monitoramento da qualidade da água em mananciais pertencentes à bacia hidrográfica do Tietê – Botucatu, SP

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Estudo da precipitação e seus impactos no município de Rio Claro: uma análise do ano de 2011

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)