Investigation of the accuracy of historical irradiance products and interannual variability of solar irradiance using Met Office ground data

Met Office station data from 1980 to 2012 has been used to characterise the interannual variability of incident solar irradiance across the UK. The same data are used to evaluate four popular historical irradiance products to determine which are most suitable for use by the UK PV industry for site selection and system design. The study confirmed previous findings that interannual variability is typically 3–6% and weighted average probability of a particular percentage deviation from the mean at an average site in the UK was calculated. This weighted average showed that fewer than 2% of site-years could be expected to fall below 90% of the long-term site mean. The historical irradiance products were compared against Met Office station data from the input years of each product. This investigation has found that all products perform well. No products have a strong spatial trend. Meteonorm 7 is most conservative (MBE = −2.5%), CMSAF is most optimistic (MBE = +3.4%) and an average of all four products performs better than any one individual product (MBE = 0.3%)

The representation of the West-African Monsoon vertical cloud structure in the Met Office Unified Model: an evaluation with CloudSat

Weather and climate model simulations of the West African Monsoon (WAM) have generally poor representation of the rainfall distribution and monsoon circulation because key processes, such as clouds and convection, are poorly characterized. The vertical distribution of cloud and precipitation during the WAM are evaluated in Met Office Unified Model simulations against CloudSat observations. Simulations were run at 40-km and 12-km horizontal grid length using a convection parameterization scheme and at 12-km, 4-km, and 1.5-km grid length with the convection scheme effectively switched off, to study the impact of model resolution and convection parameterization scheme on the organisation of tropical convection. Radar reflectivity is forward-modelled from the model cloud fields using the CloudSat simulator to present a like-with-like comparison with the CloudSat radar observations. The representation of cloud and precipitation at 12-km horizontal grid length improves dramatically when the convection parameterization is switched off, primarily because of a reduction in daytime (moist) convection. Further improvement is obtained when reducing model grid length to 4 km or 1.5 km, especially in the representation of thin anvil and mid-level cloud, but three issues remain in all model configurations. Firstly, all simulations underestimate the fraction of anvils with cloud top height above 12 km, which can be attributed to too low ice water contents in the model compared to satellite retrievals. Secondly, the model consistently detrains mid-level cloud too close to the freezing level, compared to higher altitudes in CloudSat observations. Finally, there is too much low-level cloud cover in all simulations and this bias was not improved when adjusting the rainfall parameters in the microphysics scheme. To improve model simulations of the WAM, more detailed and in-situ observations of the dynamics and microphysics targeting these non-precipitating cloud types are required.

The Met Office Global Coupled model 2.0 (GC2) configuration

The latest coupled configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (Global Coupled configuration 2, GC2) is presented. This paper documents the model components which make up the configuration (although the scientific description of these components is detailed elsewhere) and provides a description of the coupling between the components. The performance of GC2 in terms of its systematic errors is assessed using a variety of diagnostic techniques. The configuration is intended to be used by the Met Office and collaborating institutes across a range of timescales, with the seasonal forecast system (GloSea5) and climate projection system (HadGEM) being the initial users. In this paper GC2 is compared against the model currently used operationally in those two systems. Overall GC2 is shown to be an improvement on the configurations used currently, particularly in terms of modes of variability (e.g. mid-latitude and tropical cyclone intensities, the Madden–Julian Oscillation and El Niño Southern Oscillation). A number of outstanding errors are identified with the most significant being a considerable warm bias over the Southern Ocean and a dry precipitation bias in the Indian and West African summer monsoons. Research to address these is ongoing.

Diagnosing observation error correlations for Doppler radar radial winds in the Met Office UKV model using observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis statistics

With the development of convection-permitting numerical weather prediction the efficient use of high resolution observations in data assimilation is becoming increasingly important. The operational assimilation of these observations, such as Dopplerradar radial winds, is now common, though to avoid violating the assumption of un- correlated observation errors the observation density is severely reduced. To improve the quantity of observations used and the impact that they have on the forecast will require the introduction of the full, potentially correlated, error statistics. In this work, observation error statistics are calculated for the Doppler radar radial winds that are assimilated into the Met Office high resolution UK model using a diagnostic that makes use of statistical averages of observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis residuals. This is the first in-depth study using the diagnostic to estimate both horizontal and along-beam correlated observation errors. By considering the new results obtained it is found that the Doppler radar radial wind error standard deviations are similar to those used operationally and increase as the observation height increases. Surprisingly the estimated observation error correlation length scales are longer than the operational thinning distance. They are dependent on both the height of the observation and on the distance of the observation away from the radar. Further tests show that the long correlations cannot be attributed to the use of superobservations or the background error covariance matrix used in the assimilation. The large horizontal correlation length scales are, however, in part, a result of using a simplified observation operator.

An assessment of Indian monsoon seasonal forecasts and mechanisms underlying monsoon interannual variability in the Met Office GloSea5-GC2 system

We assess Indian summer monsoon seasonal forecasts in GloSea5-GC2, the Met Office fully coupled subseasonal to seasonal ensemble forecasting system. Using several metrics, GloSea5-GC2 shows similar skill to other state-of-the-art forecast systems. The prediction skill of the large-scale South Asian monsoon circulation is higher than that of Indian monsoon rainfall. Using multiple linear regression analysis we evaluate relationships between Indian monsoon rainfall and five possible drivers of monsoon interannual variability. Over the time period studied (1992-2011), the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) are the most important of these drivers in both observations and GloSea5-GC2. Our analysis indicates that ENSO and its teleconnection with the Indian rainfall are well represented in GloSea5-GC2. However, the relationship between the IOD and Indian rainfall anomalies is too weak in GloSea5-GC2, which may be limiting the prediction skill of the local monsoon circulation and Indian rainfall. We show that this weak relationship likely results from a coupled mean state bias that limits the impact of anomalous wind forcing on SST variability, resulting in erroneous IOD SST anomalies. Known difficulties in representing convective precipitation over India may also play a role. Since Indian rainfall responds weakly to the IOD, it responds more consistently to ENSO than in observations. Our assessment identifies specific coupled biases that are likely limiting GloSea5-GC2 prediction skill, providing targets for model improvement.

Have You Met Miss Jones? : Identity Construction of a Chick Lit Heroine

Take a random woman in her mid-twenties, with a crazy mother, a lousy job and no sex life, add some insecurity and a lot of alcohol and wrap her up in pink, and congratulations, you have just created your own chick lit heroine.The question is whether a chick lit heroine is this simplistic, or if she carries an important message to the readers. The most important traits in a chick lit novel are the complicated mother-daughter relationship, the career and the love life.Thus, this essay will outline to what extent the postfeminist features are depicted in theidentity of Bridget Jones, as an epitome of later chick lit heroines.

What aspects of rehabilitation provision contribute to self-reported met needs for rehabilitation one year after stroke - amount, place, operator or timing?

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: To a large extent, people who have suffered a stroke report unmet needs for rehabilitation. The purpose of this study was to explore aspects of rehabilitation provision that potentially contribute to self-reported met needs for rehabilitation 12 months after stroke with consideration also to severity of stroke. METHODS: The participants (n = 173) received care at the stroke units at the Karolinska University Hospital, Sweden. Using a questionnaire, the dependent variable, self-reported met needs for rehabilitation, was collected at 12 months after stroke. The independent variables were four aspects of rehabilitation provision based on data retrieved from registers and structured according to four aspects: amount of rehabilitation, service level (day care rehabilitation, primary care rehabilitation and home-based rehabilitation), operator level (physiotherapist, occupational therapist, speech therapist) and time after stroke onset. Multivariate logistic regression analyses regarding the aspects of rehabilitation were performed for the participants who were divided into three groups based on stroke severity at onset. RESULTS: Participants with moderate/severe stroke who had seen a physiotherapist at least once during each of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd-4th quarters of the first year (OR 8.36, CI 1.40-49.88 P = 0.020) were more likely to report met rehabilitation needs. CONCLUSION: For people with moderate/severe stroke, continuity in rehabilitation (preferably physiotherapy) during the first year after stroke seems to be associated with self-reported met needs for rehabilitation.

Study of thermal comfort in the city of são paulo using ENVI-met model

This study is aimed to analyze the thermal comfort in different areas in the city of São Paulo. Two different areas were selected, a densely built (Consolação district) and the other was Fontes do Ipiranga State Park (FISP), an area with only a few buildings and reduced impermeability. A micro-climatic ENVImet was used to simulate the interaction surface-atmosphere in the urban environment. The model resolution is between 0.5 and 10m. This model was developed by Bruse and Fleer (1998) and Bruse (2004). Through the thermal comfort index PMV (predicted mean vote) and MRT (mean radiant temperature) provided by the model, it revealed that the State Park displays PMV values close to comfortable compared to the other studied area. The analysis of thermal comfort index and the Wind flow showed the influence of high buildings in the local climatic environment.

Estimation of the metabolic equivalent (MET) of an exercise protocol based on indirect calorimetry

Objective: This study aimed to determine the energy expenditure (EE) in terms of caloric cost and metabolic equivalents (METs) of two sessions of an exercise protocol. Methods: Fifteen subjects (51.0 ± 5.5years) performed the exercise sessions (80min), which were composed by (warming, walking and flexibility exercises; Session A) and (warming, walking and local muscular endurance exercises; Session B). Heart hate (HR) was measured during each part of the sessions. In laboratory environment, maximal oxygen consumption (VO2max) and oxygen uptake in rest and exercise conditions (using mean HR obtained in classes) were measured on different days, using indirect calorimetry. Exercise METs were obtained by dividing VO2 in exercise (mL.kg-1.min-1) by VO2 in rest (mL.kg-1.min-1). The EE of the exercises was calculated by the formula: MET x Weight(kg) x Time(min)/60. The results were analyzed by ANOVA with Tuckey post hoc test (p < 0.05). Results: One MET for this group was 2.7 ± 0.1mL.kg-1.min-1. The mean METs of exercises were 4,7 ± 0,8 (warming), 5,8 ± 0,9 (walking) and 3,6 ± 0,7 (flexibility) on session A, and 4,6 ± 1,2 (warming), 5,6 ± 1,0 (walking) and 4.8 ± 1,0 (local muscular endurance exercises) on Session B. The training sessions showed similar energy cost (A: 398 ± 86.72 kcal and B: 404 ± 38.85 kcal; p > 0,05). None of activities were classified into vigorous intensity (> 7 METs). There were no differences on VO2 between walking (15,6 ± 2,8 or 15,4 ± 2,6 mL.kg-1.min-1) and local muscular endurance exercises (13,2 ± 2,9 mL.kg-1.min-1), although both were higher (p > 0.05) than flexibility exercises (10.1 ± 2.2 mL.kg-1.min-1). Conclusion: The proposed protocol achieves the physical activity needed by healthy adults to improve and maintain health, by their structure, moderate intensity, duration, frequency and caloric expenditure.

Limitações da utilização do equivalente metabólico (MET) para estimativa do gasto energético em atividades físicas

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

COMT Met (158) modulates facial emotion recognition in bipolar I disorder mood episodes

Background: One of the many cognitive deficits reported in bipolar disorder (BD) patients is facial emotion recognition (FER), which has recently been associated with dopaminergic catabolism. Catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) is one of the main enzymes involved in the metabolic degradation of dopamine (DA) in the prefrontal cortex (PFC). The COMT gene polymorphism rs4680 (Val(158)Met) Met allele is associated with decreased activity of this enzyme in healthy controls. The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of Val(158)Met on FER during manic and depressive episodes in BD patients and in healthy controls. Materials and methods: 64 BD type I patients (39 in manic and 25 in depressive episodes) and 75 healthy controls were genotyped for COMT rs4680 and assessed for FER using the Ekman 60 Faces (EK60) and Emotion Hexagon (Hx) tests. Results: Bipolar manic patients carrying the Met allele recognized fewer surprised faces, while depressed patients with the Met allele recognized fewer "angry" and "happy" faces. Healthy homozygous subjects with the Met allele had higher FER scores on the Hx total score, as well as on "disgust" and "angry" faces than other genotypes. Conclusion: This is the first study suggesting that COMT rs4680 modulates FER differently during BD episodes and in healthy controls. This provides evidence that PFC DA is part of the neurobiological mechanisms of social cognition. Further studies on other COMT polymorphisms that include euthymic BD patients are warranted. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00969. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.