An illustration of variable precision rough sets model:an analysis of the findings of the UK Monopolies and Mergers Commission

This paper introduces a new technique in the investigation of limited-dependent variable models. This paper illustrates that variable precision rough set theory (VPRS), allied with the use of a modern method of classification, or discretisation of data, can out-perform the more standard approaches that are employed in economics, such as a probit model. These approaches and certain inductive decision tree methods are compared (through a Monte Carlo simulation approach) in the analysis of the decisions reached by the UK Monopolies and Mergers Committee. We show that, particularly in small samples, the VPRS model can improve on more traditional models, both in-sample, and particularly in out-of-sample prediction. A similar improvement in out-of-sample prediction over the decision tree methods is also shown.

Wealth effects of mergers and acquisitions for US firms: using alternative pricing models

This empirical study employs a different methodology to examine the change in wealth associated with mergers and acquisitions (M&As) for US firms. Specifically, we employ the standard CAPM, the Fama-French three-factor model and the Carhart four-factor models within the OLS and GJR-GARCH estimation methods to test the behaviour of the cumulative abnormal returns (CARs). Whilst the standard CAPM captures the variability of stock returns with the overall market, the Fama-French factors capture the risk factors that are important to investors. Additionally, augmenting the Fama-French three-factor model with the Carhart momentum factor to generate the four-factor captures additional pricing elements that may affect stock returns. Traditionally, estimates of abnormal returns (ARs) in M&As situations rely on the standard OLS estimation method. However, the standard OLS will provide inefficient estimates of the ARs if the data contain ARCH and asymmetric effects. To minimise this problem of estimation efficiency we re-estimated the ARs using GJR-GARCH estimation method. We find that there is variation in the results both as regards the choice models and estimation methods. Besides these variations in the estimated models and the choice of estimation methods, we also tested whether the ARs are affected by the degree of liquidity of the stocks and the size of the firm. We document significant positive post-announcement cumulative ARs (CARs) for target firm shareholders under both the OLS and GJR-GARCH methods across all three methodologies. However, post-event CARs for acquiring firm shareholders were insignificant for both sets of estimation methods under the three methodologies. The GJR-GARCH method seems to generate larger CARs than those of the OLS method. Using both market capitalization and trading volume as a measure of liquidity and the size of the firm, we observed strong return continuations in the medium firms relative to small and large firms for target shareholders. We consistently observed market efficiency in small and large firm. This implies that target firms for small and large firms overreact to new information resulting in a more efficient market. For acquirer firms, our measure of liquidity captures strong return continuations for small firms under the OLS estimates for both CAPM and Fama-French three-factor models, whilst under the GJR-GARCH estimates only for Carhart model. Post-announcement bootstrapping simulated CARs confirmed our earlier results.

The role of HR in cross-border mergers and acquisitions:the case of Indian pharmaceutical firms

Mergers and acquisitions (M&) are increasingly becoming a strategy of choice for companies attempting to achieve and sustain competitive advantage. However, not all M&As are a success. In this paper, we examine the three main reasons highlighted in the literature as major causes of M&A failure (clashing corporate cultures, absence of clear communication, and employee involvement) in three Indian pharmaceutical companies, and we analyze the role played by the HR function in addressing them. Also, we discuss the importance of gaining the commitment and focus of the workforce during the acquisition process through employee involvement.

An empirical investigation on firm-level performance of cross border mergers and acquisitions

This empirical study investigates the performance of cross border M&A. The first stage is to identify the determinants of making cross border M&A complete. One focus here is to extend the existing empirical evidence in the field of cross border M&A and exploit the likelihood of M&A from a different perspective. Given the determinants of cross border M&A completions, the second stage is to investigate the effects of cross border M&A on post-acquisition firm performance for both targets and acquirers. The thesis exploits a hitherto unused data base, which consists of those firms that are rumoured to be undertaking M&A, and then follow the deal to completion or abandonment. This approach highlights a number of limitations to the previous literature, which relies on statistical methodology to identify potential but non-existent mergers. This thesis changes some conventional understanding for M&A activity. Cross border M&A activity is underpinned by various motives such as synergy, management discipline, and acquisition of complementary resources. Traditionally, it is believed that these motives will boost the international M&A activity and improve firm performance after takeovers. However, this thesis shows that such factors based on these motives as acquirer’s profitability and liquidity and target’s intangible resource actually deter the completion of cross border M&A in the period of 2002-2011. The overall finding suggests that the cross border M&A is the efficiency-seeking activity rather than the resource-seeking activity. Furthermore, compared with firms in takeover rumours, the completion of M&A lowers firm performance. More specifically, the difficulties in transfer of competitive advantages and integration of strategic assets lead to low firm performance in terms of productivity. Besides, firms cannot realise the synergistic effect and managerial disciplinary effect once a cross border M&A is completed, which suggests a low post-acquisition profitability level.

A közép-kelet-európai bankfúziók eredményessége (The success of the bank mergers in Central Eastern Europe)

Az elmúlt években a nagy európai bankcsoportok egyre több közép-kelet-európai bankot vásároltak fel. Tanulmányunkban a bankfúziók értékteremtő hatását részvényesi szemmel elemezzük. A közép-kelet-európai régióban tevékenykedő hét legnagyobb bankcsoport 2000 és 2008 közötti akvizíciós tranzakcióit az eseményelemzés módszerével vizsgáljuk. Úgy tűnik, a részvényesek összességében értékelik a bankcsoportok akvizíciós törekvéseit: a fúziók kicsit több mint felében pozitív a kumulált abnormális hozam, és enyhén pozitív az összes esemény abnormális hozamának átlaga is. Számításaink során elsőként az egyes bankcsoportok felvásárlási stratégiáját értékeljük. A felvásárlás bejelentése körüli háromnapos időintervallumot alapul véve, a Raiffeisen és az OTP stratégiája tekinthető a legsikeresebbnek, míg az Erste felvásárlásai a legkevésbé eredményesnek. Ezt követően rávilágítunk arra, hogy eltérő befektetői szándékból ugyan, de mind a legmagasabb, mind a legalacsonyabb értékű ügyletek esetében a pozitív abnormális hozamú fúziók vannak túlsúlyban. Végezetül megállapítjuk, hogy az országhatáron átívelő ügyletek befektetői megítélése nem rosszabb az országhatáron belüli tranzakciókénál. /===/ The big European banking groups have been buying up more and more banks in Central Eastern Europe. The study analyses the value-enhancing effects of the mergers from the shareholder’s angle by examining by occurrence analysis methods the Central East European acquisition transactions of the seven biggest banking groups between 2000 and 2008. The shareholders as a whole seem to appreciate the acquisition activity of the banks: cumulative abnormal yield is positive in over half the mergers and average abnormal yield of all occurrences is mildly positive as well. The authors evaluate first the acquisition strategies of each banking group. Based on a three-day period round the acquisition announcement, Raiffeisen and OTP seem to have the most successful strategies and Erste the least successful. Light is then shed on investment intentions in each case, but mergers with a positive abnormal yield predominate among the highest and the lowest value transactions. Finally, the investor evaluation of cross-border transactions is no worse than for domestic ones.

Role of galaxy mergers in cosmic star formation history

We present a morphology study of intermediate-redshift (0.2 < z < 1.2) luminous infrared galaxies (LIRGs) and general field galaxies in the GOODS fields using a revised asymmetry measurement method optimized for deep fields. By taking careful account of the importance of the underlying sky-background structures, our new method does not suffer from systematic bias and offers small uncertainties. By redshifting local LIRGs and low-redshift GOODS galaxies to different higher redshifts, we have found that the redshift dependence of the galaxy asymmetry due to surface-brightness dimming is a function of the asymmetry itself, with larger corrections for more asymmetric objects. By applying redshift-, infrared (IR)-luminosity- and optical-brightness-dependent asymmetry corrections, we have found that intermediate-redshift LIRGs generally show highly asymmetric morphologies, with implied merger fractions ~50% up to z = 1.2, although they are slightly more symmetric than local LIRGs. For general field galaxies, we find an almost constant relatively high merger fraction (20%-30%). The B-band luminosity functions (LFs) of galaxy mergers are derived at different redshifts up to z = 1.2 and confirm the weak evolution of the merger fraction after breaking the luminosity-density degeneracy. The IR LFs of galaxy mergers are also derived, indicating a larger merger fraction at higher IR luminosity. The integral of the merger IR LFs indicates a dramatic evolution of the merger-induced IR energy density [(1 + z)^~(5-6)], and that galaxy mergers start to dominate the cosmic IR energy density at z greater than or ~ 1.

Type Ia supernovae from violent mergers of carbon-oxygen white dwarfs: polarization signatures

The violent merger of two carbon-oxygen white dwarfs has been proposed as a viable progenitor for some Type Ia supernovae. However, it has been argued that the strong ejecta asymmetries produced by this model might be inconsistent with the low degree of polarization typically observed in Type Ia supernova explosions. Here, we test this claim by carrying out a spectropolarimetric analysis for the model proposed by Pakmor et al. for an explosion triggered during the merger of a 1.1 and 0.9 M⊙ carbon-oxygen white dwarf binary system. Owing to the asymmetries of the ejecta, the polarization signal varies significantly with viewing angle. We find that polarization levels for observers in the equatorial plane are modest (≲1 per cent) and show clear evidence for a dominant axis, as a consequence of the ejecta symmetry about the orbital plane. In contrast, orientations out of the plane are associated with higher degrees of polarization and departures from a dominant axis. While the particular model studied here gives a good match to highly polarized events such as SN 2004dt, it has difficulties in reproducing the low polarization levels commonly observed in normal Type Ia supernovae. Specifically, we find that significant asymmetries in the element distribution result in a wealth of strong polarization features that are not observed in the majority of currently available spectropolarimetric data of Type Ia supernovae. Future studies will map out the parameter space of the merger scenario to investigate if alternative models can provide better agreement with observations.

Timing and economic value of mergers and acquisitions

Doctor of Philosophy in the Faculty of Business Administration