Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tropical cyclone-induced storm surges

The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with estimates derived from a 61-year water level hindcast described in a companion paper to give a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. Results of this work are freely available to coastal engineers, managers and researchers via a web-based tool (www.sealevelrise.info). The described methodology could be applied to other regions of the world, like the US east coast, that are subject to both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones.

A 5- versus 3-day course of oral corticosteroids for children with asthma exacerbations who are not hospitalised : a randomised controlled trial

Objective To determine whether a 5-day course of oral prednisolone is superior to a 3-day course in reducing the 2-week morbidity of children with asthma exacerbations who are not hospitalised. Design, setting and participants Double-blind randomised controlled trial of asthma outcomes following a 5-day course of oral prednisolone (1 mg/kg) compared with a 3-day course of prednisolone plus placebo for 2 days. Participants were children aged 2–15 years who presented to the emergency departments of three Queensland hospitals between March 2004 and February 2007 with an acute exacerbation of asthma, but were not hospitalised. Sample size was defined a priori for a study power of 90%. Main outcome measures Difference in proportion of children who were symptom-free at Day 7, as measured by intention-to-treat (ITT) and per-protocol analysis; quality of life (QOL) on Days 7 and 14. Results 201 children were enrolled, and there was an 82% completion rate. There was no difference between groups in the proportion of children who were symptom-free (observed difference, 0.04 [95% CI, − 0.09 to 0.18] by ITT analysis; 0.04 [95% CI, − 0.17 to 0.09] by per-protocol analysis). There was also no difference between groups in QOL (P = 0.42). The difference between groups for the primary outcome was within the equivalence range calculated post priori. Conclusion A 5-day course of oral prednisolone confers no advantage over a 3-day course for children with asthma exacerbations who are not hospitalised.

Physical activity levels among children attending family day care

Objective To objectively measure the physical activity (PA) levels of children attending family day care programs. Methods A total of 114 children from 47 family day care centers wore an accelerometer for the duration of their time in care. Time in moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) and total PA was calculated using previously validated cut points. Results Children accumulated 5.8 ± 3.2 minutes of MVPA and 10.4 ± 4.4 minutes of total PA per hour of attendance. Boys exhibited significantly higher levels of PA than girls. Among healthy weight children, 4- and 5-year-olds exhibited significantly higher levels of PA than 2- and 3-year-olds. Overweight and obese 4- and 5-year-olds exhibited significantly lower levels of PA than their healthy weight counterparts. Conclusions and Implications Children attending family day care participate in low levels of PA during the child care day. The results highlight the need for effective programs to promote PA in family day care.

Validation of a 3-day physical activity recall instrument in female youth

The purpose of this study was to examine the validity of the 3-Day Physical Activity Recall (3DPAR) self-report instrument in a sample of eighth and ninth grade girls (n = 70, 54.3% white, 37.1% African American). Criterion measures of physical activity were derived using the CSA 7164 accelerometer. Participants wore a CSA monitor for 7 consecutive days and completed the self-report physical activity recall for the last 3 of those days. Self-reported total METs, 30-min blocks of MVPA, and 30-min blocks of VPA were all significantly correlated with analogous CSA variables for 7 days (r = 0.35-0.51; P < 0.01) and 3 days (r = 0.27-0.46; P < 0.05) of monitoring. The results indicate that the 3DPAR is a valid instrument for assessing overall, vigorous, and moderate to vigorous physical activity in adolescent girls.

Validity of the previous day physical activity recall (PDPAR) in fifth-grade children

This study evaluated the validity of the Previous Day Physical Activity Recall (PDPAR) self-report instrument in quantifying after-school physical activity behavior in fifth-grade children. Thirty-eight fifth-grade students (mean age, 10.8 +/- 0.1; 52.6% female; 26.3% African American) from two urban elementary schools completed the PDPAR after wearing a CSA WAM 7164 accelerometer for a day. The mean within-subject correlation between self-reported MET level and total counts for each 30-min block was 0.57 (95% C.I., 0.51-0.62). Self-reported mean MET level during the after-school period and the number of 30-min blocks with activity rated at greater than or equal to 6 METs were significantly correlated with the CSA outcome variables. Validity coefficients for these variables ranged from 0.35 to 0.43 (p <.05). Correlations between the number of 30-min blocks with activity rated at greater than or equal to 3 METs and the CSA variables were positive but failed to reach statistical significance (r = 0.19-0.23). The PDPAR provides moderately valid estimates of relative participation in vigorous activity and mean MET level in fifth-grade children. Caution should be exercised when using the PDPAR to quantify moderate physical activity in preadolescent children.

Validity and reliability of the 3-day physical activity recall in Singaporean adolescents

Childhood obesity and physical inactivity are major health concerns for the Singaporean government (Ministry of Health, Singapore [MOH], 2001). Data from the 1998 Singaporean National Health Survey indicate that 10.8–14.7% of Singaporean children ages 6–16 years are either overweight or obese (MOH, 2001). Although true population estimates of youth physical activity are not available, descriptive epidemiological studies conducted in the 1990s suggest that a large percentage of school-aged children in Singapore fail to meet established guidelines for participation in physical activity...

Objectively measured physical activity behavior in children attending a half day preschool program

Obesity rates are increasing in children of all ages, and reduced physical activity (PA) is a likely contributor to this trend. Little is known about the physical activity behavior of preschool-age children, or about the influence of preschool attendance on physical activity. Purpose The purpose of this study was to quantify the physical activity levels of children attending a center-based half-day preschool program. Methods Forty-two 3-to-5-year old children (Mean age = 4.0 ± 0.7, 54.8% Male, Mean BMI = 16.5 ± 5.5, Mean BMI %tile = 52.1 ± 33.5) from four class groups (two morning and two afternoon), wore an Actigraph 7164 accelerometer for the entire halfday program (including classroom learning experiences, snack and recess time) 2 times per week, for 10 weeks (20 activity monitoring records in total). Activity counts for each 5-sec interval were uploaded to a customized data reduction program to determine total counts, minutes of moderate PA (MPA) (3–5.9 METs), and minutes of vigorous PA (VPA) (> = 6 METs) per session. Counts were categorized as either MPA or VPA using the cutpoints developed by Sirard and colleagues (2001). Results Across the four 2.5 hour programs, the average MPA, VPA and total counts (× 103) were 12.4 ± 3.1 minutes, 18.3 ± 4.6 minutes, and 171.1 ± 29.7 counts, respectively. Thus, on average, children accumulated just over 12 minutes of moderateto-vigorous PA per hour of program attendance. The PA variables did not differ significantly by gender, weight status, or time of day. There were, however, significant age differences, with 3-year-olds exhibiting significantly less PA than their 4- and 5-year-old counterparts. Conclusions These results suggest that young children are relatively lowactive while attending preschool. Accordingly, interventions to increase movement opportunities during the preschool day are warranted.

Estimating present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the Australian coastline

The occurrence of extreme water level events along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to devastating impacts on coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is very important that the probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform flood and coastal management and for future planning. The aim of this study was to provide estimates of present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, arising from combinations of mean sea level, astronomical tide and storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical storms, but exclusive of surface gravity waves. The study has been undertaken in two main stages. In the first stage, a high-resolution (~10 km along the coast) hydrodynamic depth averaged model has been configured for the whole coastline of Australia using the Danish Hydraulics Institute’s Mike21 modelling suite of tools. The model has been forced with astronomical tidal levels, derived from the TPX07.2 global tidal model, and meteorological fields, from the US National Center for Environmental Prediction’s global reanalysis, to generate a 61-year (1949 to 2009) hindcast of water levels. This model output has been validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites around Australia with long records. At each of the model grid points located around the coast, time series of annual maxima and the several highest water levels for each year were derived from the multi-decadal water level hindcast and have been fitted to extreme value distributions to estimate exceedance probabilities. Stage 1 provided a reliable estimate of the present day total water level exceedance probabilities around southern Australia, which is mainly impacted by extra-tropical storms. However, as the meteorological fields used to force the hydrodynamic model only weakly include the effects of tropical cyclones the resultant water levels exceedance probabilities were underestimated around western, northern and north-eastern Australia at higher return periods. Even if the resolution of the meteorological forcing was adequate to represent tropical cyclone-induced surges, multi-decadal periods yielded insufficient instances of tropical cyclones to enable the use of traditional extreme value extrapolation techniques. Therefore, in the second stage of the study, a statistical model of tropical cyclone tracks and central pressures was developed using histroic observations. This model was then used to generate synthetic events that represented 10,000 years of cyclone activity for the Australia region, with characteristics based on the observed tropical cyclones over the last ~40 years. Wind and pressure fields, derived from these synthetic events using analytical profile models, were used to drive the hydrodynamic model to predict the associated storm surge response. A random time period was chosen, during the tropical cyclone season, and astronomical tidal forcing for this period was included to account for non-linear interactions between the tidal and surge components. For each model grid point around the coast, annual maximum total levels for these synthetic events were calculated and these were used to estimate exceedance probabilities. The exceedance probabilities from stages 1 and 2 were then combined to provide a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia.

Think of the children! The decline of the big day out and mega-festivals

What does the future look like for music festivals in Australia? This article examines the decline of the large festivals that have grown to dominate the scene in Australia in the last twenty years, and the rise of small, specialized festivals that offer a boutique experience.

ANZAC Day media representations of women in Perth, 1960 – 2012

The annual Anzac Day observance is a focus for articulating popular notions of Australian national identity. Early Anzac Day observations were characterised by a diversity of observational modes, many distinctly masculine and militarist in character; including sports, competitions and marches. It was from the late 1920s that the now characteristic structure of the day (dawn service - march -follow-on - afternoon celebrations including eating, drinking and playing of the gambling game two-up, illegal on every other day of the year} became the dominant form. 1 Widely believed to have experienced an extended nadir in the 1960s and 1970s, since the 1980s Anzac Day has arguably become the single most important national event in the Australian calendar, involving probably the largest-numbers of Australians, many of them young, in the same temporal observance in a multitude of locations across the country and around the world.2 To date, there is a rich literature around Anzac Day observations and meanings focussing on its cultural I folkioric role'; the production of (masculinised) national identity;pilgrimage;' popular memory I history;' and the contemporary reshaping of the Anzac myth by and for indigenous participants.'

The day that changed Grantham

"'Within two minutes it went from being no water out in the street to being waist deep inside the shop.' When Queensland went under water in January this year the tiny town of Grantham suffered the greatest loss of life: 12 people died. The locals clung to fences, floated on top of cars and supported each other to survive the unexpected and sudden wall of muddy water and debris that inundated their town. You'll hear tales of fear, bravery and loss in this moving radio feature."

Day in the Lab : Urban Informatics Research Lab, Queensland University of Technology

The Urban Informatics Research Lab brings together a group of people who focus their research on interdisciplinary topics at the intersection of social, spatial, and technical research domains—that is, people, place, and technology. Those topics are spread across the breadth of urban life—its contemporary issues and its needs, as well as the design opportunities that we have as individuals, groups, communities, and as a whole society. The lab’s current research areas include urban planning and design, civic innovation, mobility and transportation, education and connected learning, environmental sustainability, and food and urban agriculture. The common denominator of the lab’s approach is user-centered design research directed toward understanding, conceptualizing, developing, and evaluating sociotechnical practices as well as the opportunities afforded by innovative digital technology in urban environments.