Clinical evolution of patients hospitalized due to the first episode of Acute Coronary Syndrome

AIM: to assess the clinical evolution of patients hospitalized due to the first episode of Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS) according to its clinical manifestation. METHODS: data were collected from 234 patients, hospitalized between May 2006 and July 2009 due to the first episode of an ACS, by consulting their medical records. RESULTS: 234 patients were hospitalized, 140 (59.8%) due to Acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI). In the group with AMI, 19.3% presented complications, against 12.8% in the group with Unstable Angina (UA) (p=0.19). Angioplasty levels were higher among patients with AMI than with UA (p=0.02) and coronary artery bypass graft surgery was more frequent among UA patients (p=0.03). The majority (227; 97%) survived after the coronary event. Among the seven patients who died during the hospitalization, four had AMI (2.9%) and three UA (3.2%). CONCLUSIONS: A larger number of complications were found among infarction victims and the accomplishment of coronary artery bypass graft surgery differed between the groups.

Controversies in cardiovascular medicine: Chronic stable coronary artery disease: drugs vs. revascularization

Coronary artery disease remains the leading cause of mortality in most industrialized countries, although age-standardized mortality related to coronary artery disease (CAD) has decreased by more than 40% during the last two decades. Coronary atherosclerosis may cause angina pectoris, myocardial infarction, heart failure, arrhythmia, and sudden death. Medical management of atherosclerosis and its manifestation aims at retardation of progression of plaque formation, prevention of plaque rupture, and subsequent events and treatment of symptoms, when these occur as well as treatment of the sequelae of the disease. Revascularization by either percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG) is performed as treatment of flow-limiting coronary stenosis to reduce myocardial ischaemia. In high-risk patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS), a routine invasive strategy with revascularization in most patients provides the best outcome with a significant reduction in death and myocardial infarction compared with an initial conservative strategy. Conversely, the benefit of revascularization among patients with chronic stable CAD has been called into question. This review will provide information that revascularization exerts favourable effects on symptoms, quality of life, exercise capacity, and survival, particularly in those with extensive CAD and documented moderate-to-severe ischaemia. Accordingly, CABG and PCI should be considered a valuable adjunct rather than an alternative to medical therapy.

Safety and exercise tolerance of acute high altitude exposure (3454 m) among patients with coronary artery disease

OBJECTIVES: To assess the safety and cardiopulmonary adaptation to high altitude exposure among patients with coronary artery disease. METHODS: 22 patients (20 men and 2 women), mean age 57 (SD 7) years, underwent a maximal, symptom limited exercise stress test in Bern, Switzerland (540 m) and after a rapid ascent to the Jungfraujoch (3454 m). The study population comprised 15 patients after ST elevation myocardial infarction and 7 after a non-ST elevation myocardial infarction 12 (SD 4) months after the acute event. All patients were revascularised either by percutaneous coronary angioplasty (n = 15) or by coronary artery bypass surgery (n = 7). Ejection fraction was 60 (SD 8)%. beta blocking agents were withheld for five days before exercise testing. RESULTS: At 3454 m, peak oxygen uptake decreased by 19% (p < 0.001), maximum work capacity by 15% (p < 0.001) and exercise time by 16% (p < 0.001); heart rate, ventilation and lactate were significantly higher at every level of exercise, except at maximum exertion. No ECG signs of myocardial ischaemia or significant arrhythmias were noted. CONCLUSIONS: Although oxygen demand and lactate concentrations are higher during exercise at high altitude, a rapid ascent and submaximal exercise can be considered safe at an altitude of 3454 m for low risk patients six months after revascularisation for an acute coronary event and a normal exercise stress test at low altitude.

Self-Reported Memory Symptoms with Coronary Artery Disease: A Prospective of CABG Patients and Nonsurgical Controls

Background. Subjective memory complaints are common after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), but previous studies have concluded that such symptoms are more closely associated with depressed mood than objective cognitive dysfunction. We compared the incidence of self-reported memory symptoms at 3 and 12 months after CABG with that of a control group of patients with comparable risk factors for coronary artery disease but without surgery. Methods. Patients undergoing CABG (n = 140) and a demographically similar nonsurgical control group with coronary artery disease (n = 92) were followed prospectively at 3 and 12 months. At each follow-up time, participants were asked about changes since the previous evaluation in areas of memory, calculations, reading, and personality. A Functional Status Questionnaire (FSQ) and self-report measure of symptoms of depression (CES-D) were also completed. Results. The frequency of self-reported changes in memory, personality, and reading at 3 months was significantly higher among CABG patients than among nonsurgical controls. By contrast, there were no differences in the frequency of self-reported symptoms relating to calculations or overall rating of functional status. After adjusting for a measure of depression (CES-D rating score), the risk for self-reported memory changes remained nearly 5 times higher among the CABG patients than control subjects. The relative risk of developing new self-reported memory symptoms between 3 and 12 months was 2.5 times higher among CABG patients than among nonsurgical controls (CI 1.24 – 5.02), and the overall prevalence of memory symptoms at 12 months was also higher among CABG patients (39%) than controls (14%). Conclusions. The frequency of self-reported memory symptoms 3 and 12 months after baseline is significantly higher among CABG patients than control patients with comparable risk factors for coronary and cerebrovascular disease. These differences could not be accounted for by symptoms of depression. The self-reported cognitive symptoms appear to be relatively specific for memory, and may reflect aspects of memory functioning that are not captured by traditional measures of new verbal learning and memory. The etiology of these self-reported memory symptoms remains unclear, but our findings as well as those of others, may implicate factors other than cardiopulmonary bypass itself.

10-year follow-up of a prospective randomized trial comparing bare-metal stenting with internal mammary artery grafting for proximal, isolated de novo left anterior coronary artery stenosis the SIMA (Stenting versus Internal Mammary Artery grafting) trial

OBJECTIVES: This study was designed to compare the long-term clinical outcome of coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) with intracoronary stenting of patients with isolated proximal left anterior descending coronary artery. BACKGROUND: Although numerous trials have compared coronary angioplasty with bypass surgery, none assessed the clinical evaluation in the long term. METHODS: We evaluated the 10-year clinical outcome in the SIMA (Stent versus Internal Mammary Artery grafting) trial. Patients were randomly assigned to stent implantation versus CABG. RESULTS: Of 123 randomized patients, 59 underwent CABG and 62 received a stent (2 patients were excluded). Follow-up after 10 years was obtained for 98% of the randomized patients. Twenty-six patients (42%) in the percutaneous coronary intervention group and 10 patients (17%) in the CABG group reached an end point (p < 0.001). This difference was due to a higher need for additional revascularization. The incidences of death and myocardial infarction were identical at 10%. Progression of the disease requiring additional revascularization was rare (5%) and was similar for the 2 groups. Stent thrombosis occurred in 2 patients (3%). Angina functional class showed no significant differences between the 2 groups. CONCLUSIONS: Both stent implantation and CABG are safe and highly effective in relieving symptoms in patients with isolated, proximal left anterior descending coronary artery stenosis. Stenting with bare-metal stents is associated with a higher need for repeat interventions. The long-term prognosis for these patients is excellent with either mode of revascularization.

Surgical versus percutaneous revascularization of coronary artery disease in diabetic patients

Morbidity and mortality related to coronary artery disease (CAD) remain a great challenge in patients with diabetes mellitus. Revascularization of CAD is an important therapeutic intervention owing to its impact on both symptoms and prognosis. The optimal revascularization strategy continues to evolve due to the advent of new technologies and improved peri-procedural outcome with both percutaneous coronary interventions and coronary artery bypass grafting. Although clinical outcome following coronary artery bypass is worse in diabetic as opposed to non-diabetic patients, surgical revascularization tends to be associated with better outcome in stable patients with multivessel disease and reduced left ventricular function. The advent of drug-eluting stents has challenged the supremacy of coronary artery bypass grafting and has become a valuable alternative to surgery. The safety and efficacy of drug-eluting stents in the treatment of patients with diabetes and multivessel disease is currently under investigation in several ongoing randomized controlled trials. Percutaneous coronary intervention is the therapy of choice in patients with acute coronary syndromes, particularly ST-elevation myocardial infarction. The focus of this review is to present the current evidence, define the role of percutaneous and surgical revascularization in the treatment of diabetic patients with CAD, and propose a tailored approach for clinical decision-making.

Severe aortic stenosis and coronary artery disease

Coronary artery disease (CAD) and aortic stenosis (AS) share pathophysiological mechanisms and risk factors. Moreover, the prevalence of CAD increases among elderly patients with severe AS since disease progression is strongly associated with age for both CAD and AS. These factors contribute to the frequent coexistence of CAD and AS. Patients with concomitant AS and CAD are characterised by higher baseline risk profiles with a larger number of comorbidities as compared to patients with isolated AS. Therefore, adequate therapeutic strategies are crucial for the treatment of these patients. The number of patients undergoing concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) doubled during the last decade. Moreover, the development and rapid integration of transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) into clinical practice in western European countries has further extended invasive treatment of AS to elderly high-risk patients not considered suitable candidates for SAVR, frequently presenting with CAD. The aim of this review article is to provide an overview on CAD prevalence, impact on clinical outcomes, and treatment strategies in patients with severe AS requiring SAVR or TAVI.

Revascularisation versus medical treatment in patients with stable coronary artery disease: network meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE To investigate whether revascularisation improves prognosis compared with medical treatment among patients with stable coronary artery disease. DESIGN Bayesian network meta-analyses to combine direct within trial comparisons between treatments with indirect evidence from other trials while maintaining randomisation. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES A strategy of initial medical treatment compared with revascularisation by coronary artery bypass grafting or Food and Drug Administration approved techniques for percutaneous revascularization: balloon angioplasty, bare metal stent, early generation paclitaxel eluting stent, sirolimus eluting stent, and zotarolimus eluting (Endeavor) stent, and new generation everolimus eluting stent, and zotarolimus eluting (Resolute) stent among patients with stable coronary artery disease. DATA SOURCES Medline and Embase from 1980 to 2013 for randomised trials comparing medical treatment with revascularisation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE All cause mortality. RESULTS 100 trials in 93 553 patients with 262 090 patient years of follow-up were included. Coronary artery bypass grafting was associated with a survival benefit (rate ratio 0.80, 95% credibility interval 0.70 to 0.91) compared with medical treatment. New generation drug eluting stents (everolimus: 0.75, 0.59 to 0.96; zotarolimus (Resolute): 0.65, 0.42 to 1.00) but not balloon angioplasty (0.85, 0.68 to 1.04), bare metal stents (0.92, 0.79 to 1.05), or early generation drug eluting stents (paclitaxel: 0.92, 0.75 to 1.12; sirolimus: 0.91, 0.75 to 1.10; zotarolimus (Endeavor): 0.88, 0.69 to 1.10) were associated with improved survival compared with medical treatment. Coronary artery bypass grafting reduced the risk of myocardial infarction compared with medical treatment (0.79, 0.63 to 0.99), and everolimus eluting stents showed a trend towards a reduced risk of myocardial infarction (0.75, 0.55 to 1.01). The risk of subsequent revascularisation was noticeably reduced by coronary artery bypass grafting (0.16, 0.13 to 0.20) followed by new generation drug eluting stents (zotarolimus (Resolute): 0.26, 0.17 to 0.40; everolimus: 0.27, 0.21 to 0.35), early generation drug eluting stents (zotarolimus (Endeavor): 0.37, 0.28 to 0.50; sirolimus: 0.29, 0.24 to 0.36; paclitaxel: 0.44, 0.35 to 0.54), and bare metal stents (0.69, 0.59 to 0.81) compared with medical treatment. CONCLUSION Among patients with stable coronary artery disease, coronary artery bypass grafting reduces the risk of death, myocardial infarction, and subsequent revascularisation compared with medical treatment. All stent based coronary revascularisation technologies reduce the need for revascularisation to a variable degree. Our results provide evidence for improved survival with new generation drug eluting stents but no other percutaneous revascularisation technology compared with medical treatment.

Coronary artery disease in patients undergoing TAVI: why, what, when and how to treat.

Coronary artery disease (CAD) and aortic valve stenosis (AS) are frequently coexisting. It has been reported that CAD is present in 40% of patients with AS undergoing surgical aortic valve replacement, and in up to 60% of patients with AS undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). Elderly patients with CAD and AS are characterised by higher baseline risk profiles as compared to patients with isolated AS, increasing the complexity of their therapeutic management. In patients with CAD and AS the combination of coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and surgical aortic valve replacement has been shown to improve survival. Therefore, CABG is recommended in patients with CAD and AS undergoing surgical aortic valve replacement according to current guidelines of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and of the American College of Cardiology Foundation/American Heart Association (ACCF/AHA). Conversely, whether the presence of CAD has any prognostic implications in elderly patients with severe AS undergoing TAVI is still a matter of debate. Of note, according to the most recent ESC guidelines on myocardial revascularisation, percutaneous revascularisation should be considered in patients undergoing TAVI with a stenosis >70% in proximal coronary segments (class IIa, level of evidence C). The aim of this article is to provide an overview of evidence supporting the need for coronary revascularisation in patients with severe AS and CAD undergoing TAVI, and to summarise optimal timing and treatment modalities for percutaneous coronary interventions in these patients.

Radial versus femoral access in patients with acute coronary syndromes undergoing invasive management: a randomised multicentre trial.

BACKGROUND It is unclear whether radial compared with femoral access improves outcomes in unselected patients with acute coronary syndromes undergoing invasive management. METHODS We did a randomised, multicentre, superiority trial comparing transradial against transfemoral access in patients with acute coronary syndrome with or without ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction who were about to undergo coronary angiography and percutaneous coronary intervention. Patients were randomly allocated (1:1) to radial or femoral access with a web-based system. The randomisation sequence was computer generated, blocked, and stratified by use of ticagrelor or prasugrel, type of acute coronary syndrome (ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction, troponin positive or negative, non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome), and anticipated use of immediate percutaneous coronary intervention. Outcome assessors were masked to treatment allocation. The 30-day coprimary outcomes were major adverse cardiovascular events, defined as death, myocardial infarction, or stroke, and net adverse clinical events, defined as major adverse cardiovascular events or Bleeding Academic Research Consortium (BARC) major bleeding unrelated to coronary artery bypass graft surgery. The analysis was by intention to treat. The two-sided α was prespecified at 0·025. The trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01433627. FINDINGS We randomly assigned 8404 patients with acute coronary syndrome, with or without ST-segment elevation, to radial (4197) or femoral (4207) access for coronary angiography and percutaneous coronary intervention. 369 (8·8%) patients with radial access had major adverse cardiovascular events, compared with 429 (10·3%) patients with femoral access (rate ratio [RR] 0·85, 95% CI 0·74-0·99; p=0·0307), non-significant at α of 0·025. 410 (9·8%) patients with radial access had net adverse clinical events compared with 486 (11·7%) patients with femoral access (0·83, 95% CI 0·73-0·96; p=0·0092). The difference was driven by BARC major bleeding unrelated to coronary artery bypass graft surgery (1·6% vs 2·3%, RR 0·67, 95% CI 0·49-0·92; p=0·013) and all-cause mortality (1·6% vs 2·2%, RR 0·72, 95% CI 0·53-0·99; p=0·045). INTERPRETATION In patients with acute coronary syndrome undergoing invasive management, radial as compared with femoral access reduces net adverse clinical events, through a reduction in major bleeding and all-cause mortality. FUNDING The Medicines Company and Terumo.

Stable coronary artery disease: revascularisation and invasive strategies

Stable coronary artery disease is the most common clinical manifestation of ischaemic heart disease and a leading cause of mortality worldwide. Myocardial revascularisation is a mainstay in the treatment of symptomatic patients or those with ischaemia-producing coronary lesions, and reduces ischaemia to a greater extent than medical treatment. Documentation of ischaemia and plaque burden is fundamental in the risk stratification of patients with stable coronary artery disease, and several invasive and non-invasive techniques are available (eg, fractional flow reserve or intravascular ultrasound) or being validated (eg, instantaneous wave-free ratio and optical coherence tomography). The use of new-generation drug-eluting stents and arterial conduits greatly improve clinical outcome in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). PCI is feasible, safe, and effective in many patients with stable coronary artery disease who remain symptomatic despite medical treatment. In patients with multivessel and left main coronary artery disease, the decision between PCI or CABG is guided by the local Heart Team (team of different cardiovascular specialists, including non-invasive and invasive cardiologists, and cardiac surgeons), who carefully judge the possible benefits and risks inherent to PCI and CABG. In specific subsets, such as patients with diabetes and advanced, multivessel coronary artery disease, CABG remains the standard of care in view of improved protection against recurrent ischaemic adverse events.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of fluvastatin in patients with diabetes after successful percutaneous coronary intervention

Background: The Lescol Intervention Prevention Study (LIPS) was a multinational randomized controlled trial that showed a 47% reduction in the relative risk of cardiac death and a 22% reduction in major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) from the routine use of fluvastatin, compared with controls, in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI, defined as angioplasty with or without stents). In this study, MACEs included cardiac death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and subsequent PCI and coronary artery bypass graft. Diabetes was the greatest risk factor for MACEs. Objective: This study estimated the cost-effectiveness of fluvastatin when used for secondary prevention of MACEs after PCI in people with diabetes. Methods: A post hoc subgroup analysis of patients with diabetes from the LIPS was used to estimate the effectiveness of fluvastatin in reducing myocardial infarction, revascularization, and cardiac death. A probabilistic Markov model was developed using United Kingdom resource and cost data to estimate the additional costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained over 10 years from the perspective of the British National Health Service. The model contained 6 health states, and the transition probabilities were derived from the LIPS data. Crossover from fluvastatin to other lipid-lowering drugs, withdrawal from fluvastatin, and the use of lipid-lowering drugs in the control group were included. Results: In the subgroup of 202 patients with diabetes in the LIPS trial, 18 (15.0%) of 120 fluvastatin patients and 21 (25.6%) of 82 control participants were insulin dependent (P = NS). Compared with the control group, patients treated with fluvastatin can expect to gain an additional mean (SD) of 0.196 (0.139) QALY per patient over 10 years (P < 0.001) and will cost the health service an additional mean (SD) of 10 (E448) (P = NS) (mean [SD] US $16 [$689]). The additional cost per QALY gained was;(51 (US $78). The key determinants of cost-effectiveness included the probabilities of repeat interventions, cardiac death, the cost of fluvastatin, and the time horizon used for the evaluation. Conclusion: Fluvastatin was an economically efficient treatment to prevent MACEs in these patients with diabetes undergoing PCI.

Calibrated integrated backscatter and myocardial fibrosis in patients undergoing cardiac surgery.

Objective - The reported association between calibrated integrated backscatter (cIB) and myocardial fibrosis is based on study of patients with dilated or hypertrophic cardiomyopathy and extensive (mean 15–34%) fibrosis. Its association with lesser degrees of fibrosis is unknown. We examined the relationship between cIB and myocardial fibrosis in patients with coronary artery disease.

Methods - Myocardial histology was examined in left ventricular epicardial biopsies from 40 patients (29 men and 11 women) undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery, who had preoperative echocardiography with cIB measurement.

Results - Total fibrosis (picrosirius red staining) varied from 0.7% to 4%, and in contrast to previous reports, cIB showed weak inverse associations with total fibrosis (r=−0.32, p=0.047) and interstitial fibrosis (r=−0.34, p=0.03). However, cIB was not significantly associated with other histological parameters, including immunostaining for collagens I and III, the advanced glycation end product (AGE) Nε-(carboxymethyl)lysine (CML) and the receptor for AGEs (RAGE). When biomarkers were examined, cIB was weakly associated with log plasma levels of amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (r=0.34, p=0.03), creatinine (r=0.33, p=0.04) and glomerular filtration rate (r=−0.33, p=0.04), and was more strongly associated with log plasma levels of soluble vascular endothelial growth factor receptor-1 (sVEGFR-1) (r=0.44, p=0.01) and soluble RAGE (r=0.53, p=0.002).

Conclusions - Higher cIB was not a marker of increased myocardial fibrosis in patients with coronary artery disease, but was associated with higher plasma levels of sVEGFR-1 and soluble RAGE. The role of cIB as a non-invasive index of fibrosis in clinical studies of patients without extensive fibrosis is, therefore, questionable.

Défaillance cardiaque et mécanismes de protection et réparation du myocarde

La cardiomyopathie ischémique et l’insuffisance cardiaque (IC) sont deux des principales causes de morbidité et de mortalité dans les pays industrialisés. L’IC représente la condition finale résultant de plusieurs pathologies affectant le myocarde. Au Canada, plus de 400 000 personnes souffrent d’IC. Malgré la grande variété de traitements disponibles pour prendre en charge ces patients à haut risque de mortalité, l’évolution et le pronostic clinique de cette population demeurent sombres. Les thérapies de régénération par transplantation cellulaire représentent de nouvelles approches pour traiter les patients souffrant d’IC. L’impact de cette approche cellulaire et les mécanismes qui sous-tendent l’application de ce nouveau mode de traitement demeurent obscurs. Les hypothèses proposées dans cette thèse sont les suivantes : 1) l’évolution à long terme des patients qui se présentent en IC grave est nettement défavorable malgré les techniques actuelles de revascularisation chirurgicale à cœur battant; 2) la thérapie cellulaire et, plus spécifiquement, l’injection intracoronaire précoce de milieu de culture cellulaire, permet d’améliorer la récupération fonctionnelle du ventricule gauche suite à un infarctus aigu du myocarde; et 3) la mobilisation de l’axe cœur-moelle osseuse constitue un mécanisme de réponse important lors de la survenue d’un événement ischémique chronique affectant le myocarde.

Mechanism and Prediction of Post-Operative Atrial Fibrillation Based on Atrial Electrograms

La fibrillation auriculaire (FA) est une arythmie touchant les oreillettes. En FA, la contraction auriculaire est rapide et irrégulière. Le remplissage des ventricules devient incomplet, ce qui réduit le débit cardiaque. La FA peut entraîner des palpitations, des évanouissements, des douleurs thoraciques ou l’insuffisance cardiaque. Elle augmente aussi le risque d'accident vasculaire. Le pontage coronarien est une intervention chirurgicale réalisée pour restaurer le flux sanguin dans les cas de maladie coronarienne sévère. 10% à 65% des patients qui n'ont jamais subi de FA, en sont victime le plus souvent lors du deuxième ou troisième jour postopératoire. La FA est particulièrement fréquente après une chirurgie de la valve mitrale, survenant alors dans environ 64% des patients. L'apparition de la FA postopératoire est associée à une augmentation de la morbidité, de la durée et des coûts d'hospitalisation. Les mécanismes responsables de la FA postopératoire ne sont pas bien compris. L'identification des patients à haut risque de FA après un pontage coronarien serait utile pour sa prévention. Le présent projet est basé sur l'analyse d’électrogrammes cardiaques enregistrées chez les patients après pontage un aorte-coronaire. Le premier objectif de la recherche est d'étudier si les enregistrements affichent des changements typiques avant l'apparition de la FA. Le deuxième objectif est d'identifier des facteurs prédictifs permettant d’identifier les patients qui vont développer une FA. Les enregistrements ont été réalisés par l'équipe du Dr Pierre Pagé sur 137 patients traités par pontage coronarien. Trois électrodes unipolaires ont été suturées sur l'épicarde des oreillettes pour enregistrer en continu pendant les 4 premiers jours postopératoires. La première tâche était de développer un algorithme pour détecter et distinguer les activations auriculaires et ventriculaires sur chaque canal, et pour combiner les activations des trois canaux appartenant à un même événement cardiaque. L'algorithme a été développé et optimisé sur un premier ensemble de marqueurs, et sa performance évaluée sur un second ensemble. Un logiciel de validation a été développé pour préparer ces deux ensembles et pour corriger les détections sur tous les enregistrements qui ont été utilisés plus tard dans les analyses. Il a été complété par des outils pour former, étiqueter et valider les battements sinusaux normaux, les activations auriculaires et ventriculaires prématurées (PAA, PVA), ainsi que les épisodes d'arythmie. Les données cliniques préopératoires ont ensuite été analysées pour établir le risque préopératoire de FA. L’âge, le niveau de créatinine sérique et un diagnostic d'infarctus du myocarde se sont révélés être les plus importants facteurs de prédiction. Bien que le niveau du risque préopératoire puisse dans une certaine mesure prédire qui développera la FA, il n'était pas corrélé avec le temps de l'apparition de la FA postopératoire. Pour l'ensemble des patients ayant eu au moins un épisode de FA d’une durée de 10 minutes ou plus, les deux heures précédant la première FA prolongée ont été analysées. Cette première FA prolongée était toujours déclenchée par un PAA dont l’origine était le plus souvent sur l'oreillette gauche. Cependant, au cours des deux heures pré-FA, la distribution des PAA et de la fraction de ceux-ci provenant de l'oreillette gauche était large et inhomogène parmi les patients. Le nombre de PAA, la durée des arythmies transitoires, le rythme cardiaque sinusal, la portion basse fréquence de la variabilité du rythme cardiaque (LF portion) montraient des changements significatifs dans la dernière heure avant le début de la FA. La dernière étape consistait à comparer les patients avec et sans FA prolongée pour trouver des facteurs permettant de discriminer les deux groupes. Cinq types de modèles de régression logistique ont été comparés. Ils avaient une sensibilité, une spécificité et une courbe opérateur-receveur similaires, et tous avaient un niveau de prédiction des patients sans FA très faible. Une méthode de moyenne glissante a été proposée pour améliorer la discrimination, surtout pour les patients sans FA. Deux modèles ont été retenus, sélectionnés sur les critères de robustesse, de précision, et d’applicabilité. Autour 70% patients sans FA et 75% de patients avec FA ont été correctement identifiés dans la dernière heure avant la FA. Le taux de PAA, la fraction des PAA initiés dans l'oreillette gauche, le pNN50, le temps de conduction auriculo-ventriculaire, et la corrélation entre ce dernier et le rythme cardiaque étaient les variables de prédiction communes à ces deux modèles.