Separating ITCZ- and ENSO-related rainfall changes in the Galápagos over the last 3 kyr using D/H ratios of multiple lipid biomarkers

We present a 3000-yr rainfall reconstruction from the Galápagos Islands that is based on paired biomarker records from the sediment of El Junco Lake. Located in the eastern equatorial Pacific, the climate of the Galápagos Islands is governed by movements of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We use a novel method for reconstructing past ENSO- and ITCZ-related rainfall changes through analysis of molecular and isotopic biomarker records representing several types of plants and algae that grow under differing climatic conditions. We propose that ?D values of dinosterol, a sterol produced by dinoflagellates, record changes in mean rainfall in El Junco Lake, while dD values of C34 botryococcene, a hydrocarbon unique to the green alga Botryococcus braunii, record changes in rainfall associated with moderate-to-strong El Niño events. We use these proxies to infer changes in mean rainfall and El Niño-related rainfall over the past 3000 yr. During periods in which the inferred change in El Niño-related rainfall opposed the change in mean rainfall, we infer changes in the amount of ITCZ-related rainfall. Simulations with an idealized isotope hydrology model of El Junco Lake help illustrate the interpretation of these proxy reconstructions. Opposing changes in El Niño- and ITCZ-related rainfall appear to account for several of the largest inferred hydrologic changes in El Junco Lake. We propose that these reconstructions can be used to infer changes in frequency and/or intensity of El Niño events and changes in the position of the ITCZ in the eastern equatorial Pacific over the past 3000 yr. Comparison with El Junco Lake sediment grain size records indicates general agreement of inferred rainfall changes over the late Holocene.

An interactive method of fuzzy probability elicitation in risk analysis

Expert knowledge is used to assign probabilities to events in many risk analysis models. However, experts sometimes find it hard to provide specific values for these probabilities, preferring to express vague or imprecise terms that are mapped using a previously defined fuzzy number scale. The rigidity of these scales generates bias in the probability elicitation process and does not allow experts to adequately express their probabilistic judgments. We present an interactive method for extracting a fuzzy number from experts that represents their probabilistic judgments for a given event, along with a quality measure of the probabilistic judgments, useful in a final information filtering and analysis sensitivity process.

Operational modal analisys using joint statistical analysis of multiple records

In Operational Modal Analysis (OMA) of a structure, the data acquisition process may be repeated many times. In these cases, the analyst has several similar records for the modal analysis of the structure that have been obtained at di�erent time instants (multiple records). The solution obtained varies from one record to another, sometimes considerably. The differences are due to several reasons: statistical errors of estimation, changes in the external forces (unmeasured forces) that modify the output spectra, appearance of spurious modes, etc. Combining the results of the di�erent individual analysis is not straightforward. To solve the problem, we propose to make the joint estimation of the parameters using all the records. This can be done in a very simple way using state space models and computing the estimates by maximum-likelihood. The method provides a single result for the modal parameters that combines optimally all the records.

Sharp imaging of Multiple object pointS: how and why

Is it possible to sharply image M object points with N surfaces when N menor que M? Under what conditions? Why is it interesting for optimization? What is the role of the SMS method?

A consistent method of analysis of RC shell structures

In this paper some topics related to the design of reinforced concrete (RC) shells are addressed. The influence of the reinforcement layout on the service and ultimate behavior of the shell structure is commented. The well established methodology for dimensioning and verifying RC sections of beam structures is extended. In this way it is possible to treat within a unified procedure the design and verification of RC two dimensional structures, in particular membrane and shell structures. Realistic design situations as multiple steel farnilies and non orthogonal reinforcement layout can be handled. Finally, some examples and applications of the proposed methodology are presented.

Isolation of multiple sequences from the Plasmodium falciparum genome that encode conserved domains homologous to those in erythrocyte-binding proteins.

Open reading frames in the Plasmodium falciparum genome encode domains homologous to the adhesive domains of the P. falciparum EBA-175 erythrocyte-binding protein (eba-175 gene product) and those of the Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium knowlesi Duffy antigen-binding proteins. These domains are referred to as Duffy binding-like (DBL), after the receptor that determines P. vivax invasion of Duffy blood group-positive human erythrocytes. Using oligonucleotide primers derived from short regions of conserved sequence, we have developed a reverse transcription-PCR method that amplifies sequences encoding the DBL domains of expressed genes. Products of these reverse transcription-PCR amplifications include sequences of single-copy genes (including eba-175) and variably transcribed genes that cross-hybridize to multiple regions of the genome. Restriction patterns of the multicopy genes show a high degree of polymorphism among different parasite lines, whereas single-copy genes are generally conserved. Characterization of the single-copy genes has identified a gene (ebl-1) that is related to eba-175 and is likely to be involved in erythrocyte invasion.

Differences in mail and telephone responses to self-rated health: use of multiple imputation in correcting for response bias

Objectives: To estimate differences in self-rated health by mode of administration and to assess the value of multiple imputation to make self-rated health comparable for telephone and mail. Methods: In 1996, Survey 1 of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health was answered by mail. In 1998, 706 and 11,595 mid-age women answered Survey 2 by telephone and mail respectively. Self-rated health was measured by the physical and mental health scores of the SF-36. Mean change in SF-36 scores between Surveys 1 and 2 were compared for telephone and mail respondents to Survey 2, before and after adjustment for socio-demographic and health characteristics. Missing values and SF-36 scores for telephone respondents at Survey 2 were imputed from SF-36 mail responses and telephone and mail responses to socio-demographic and health questions. Results: At Survey 2, self-rated health improved for telephone respondents but not mail respondents. After adjustment, mean changes in physical health and mental health scores remained higher (0.4 and 1.6 respectively) for telephone respondents compared with mail respondents (-1.2 and 0.1 respectively). Multiple imputation yielded adjusted changes in SF-36 scores that were similar for telephone and mail respondents. Conclusions and Implications: The effect of mode of administration on the change in mental health is important given that a difference of two points in SF-36 scores is accepted as clinically meaningful. Health evaluators should be aware of and adjust for the effects of mode of administration on self-rated health. Multiple imputation is one method that may be used to adjust SF-36 scores for mode of administration bias.

The positive impact of multiple sclerosis (MS) on carers: Associations between carer benefit finding and positive and negative adjustment domains

Purpose. This study examined benefit finding in MS carers including the dimensionality of benefit finding, relations between carer and care recipient benefit finding, and the effects of carer benefit finding on carer positive and negative adjustment domains. Method. A total of 267 carers and their care recipients completed questionnaires at Time 1 and 3 months later, Time 2 (n=155). Illness data were collected at Time 1, and number of problems, stress appraisal, benefit finding, negative (global distress, negative affect) and positive (life satisfaction, positive affect, dyadic adjustment) adjustment domains were measured at Time 2. Results. Qualitative data revealed seven benefit finding themes, two of which were adequately represented by the Benefit Finding Scale (BFS) [1] (Mohr et al. Health Psychology 1999; 18: 376). Factor analyses indicated two factors (Personal Growth, Family Relations Growth) which were psychometrically sound and showed differential relations with illness and adjustment domains. Although care recipients reported higher levels of benefit finding than carers, their benefit finding reports regarding personal growth were correlated. The carer BFS factors were positively related to carer and care recipient dyadic adjustment. Care recipient benefit finding was unrelated to carer adjustment domains. After controlling for the effects of demographics, care recipient characteristics, problems and appraisal, carer benefit finding was related to carer positive adjustment domains and unrelated to carer negative adjustment domains. Conclusion. Findings support the role of benefit finding in sustaining positive psychological states and the communal search for meaning within carer-care recipient dyads.

Visualising and controlling the flow in biomolecular systems at and between multiple scales:from atoms to hydrodynamics at different locations in time and space

A novel framework for modelling biomolecular systems at multiple scales in space and time simultaneously is described. The atomistic molecular dynamics representation is smoothly connected with a statistical continuum hydrodynamics description. The system behaves correctly at the limits of pure molecular dynamics (hydrodynamics) and at the intermediate regimes when the atoms move partly as atomistic particles, and at the same time follow the hydrodynamic flows. The corresponding contributions are controlled by a parameter, which is defined as an arbitrary function of space and time, thus, allowing an effective separation of the atomistic 'core' and continuum 'environment'. To fill the scale gap between the atomistic and the continuum representations our special purpose computer for molecular dynamics, MDGRAPE-4, as well as GPU-based computing were used for developing the framework. These hardware developments also include interactive molecular dynamics simulations that allow intervention of the modelling through force-feedback devices.

Iterative reconstruction as a novel method of radiation dose reduction at computed tomography in patients with Crohn's disease

Prior work of our research group, that quantified the alarming levels of radiation dose to patients with Crohn’s disease from medical imaging and the notable shift towards CT imaging making these patients an at risk group, provided context for this work. CT delivers some of the highest doses of ionising radiation in diagnostic radiology. Once a medical imaging examination is deemed justified, there is an onus on the imaging team to endeavour to produce diagnostic quality CT images at the lowest possible radiation dose to that patient. The fundamental limitation with conventional CT raw data reconstruction was the inherent coupling of administered radiation dose with observed image noise – the lower the radiation dose, the noisier the image. The renaissance, rediscovery and refinement of iterative reconstruction removes this limitation allowing either an improvement in image quality without increasing radiation dose or maintenance of image quality at a lower radiation dose compared with traditional image reconstruction. This thesis is fundamentally an exercise in optimisation in clinical CT practice with the objectives of assessment of iterative reconstruction as a method for improvement of image quality in CT, exploration of the associated potential for radiation dose reduction, and development of a new split dose CT protocol with the aim of achieving and validating diagnostic quality submillisiever t CT imaging in patients with Crohn’s disease. In this study, we investigated the interplay of user-selected parameters on radiation dose and image quality in phantoms and cadavers, comparing traditional filtered back projection (FBP) with iterative reconstruction algorithms. This resulted in the development of an optimised, refined and appropriate split dose protocol for CT of the abdomen and pelvis in clinical patients with Crohn’s disease allowing contemporaneous acquisition of both modified and conventional dose CT studies. This novel algorithm was then applied to 50 patients with a suspected acute complication of known Crohn’s disease and the raw data reconstructed with FBP, adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (ASiR) and model based iterative reconstruction (MBIR). Conventional dose CT images with FBP reconstruction were used as the reference standard with which the modified dose CT images were compared in terms of radiation dose, diagnostic findings and image quality indices. As there are multiple possible user-selected strengths of ASiR available, these were compared in terms of image quality to determine the optimal strength for this modified dose CT protocol. Modified dose CT images with MBIR were also compared with contemporaneous abdominal radiograph, where performed, in terms of diagnostic yield and radiation dose. Finally, attenuation measurements in organs, tissues, etc. with each reconstruction algorithm were compared to assess for preservation of tissue characterisation capabilities. In the phantom and cadaveric models, both forms of iterative reconstruction examined (ASiR and MBIR) were superior to FBP across a wide variety of imaging protocols, with MBIR superior to ASiR in all areas other than reconstruction speed. We established that ASiR appears to work to a target percentage noise reduction whilst MBIR works to a target residual level of absolute noise in the image. Modified dose CT images reconstructed with both ASiR and MBIR were non-inferior to conventional dose CT with FBP in terms of diagnostic findings, despite reduced subjective and objective indices of image quality. Mean dose reductions of 72.9-73.5% were achieved with the modified dose protocol with a mean effective dose of 1.26mSv. MBIR was again demonstrated superior to ASiR in terms of image quality. The overall optimal ASiR strength for the modified dose protocol used in this work is ASiR 80%, as this provides the most favourable balance of peak subjective image quality indices with less objective image noise than the corresponding conventional dose CT images reconstructed with FBP. Despite guidelines to the contrary, abdominal radiographs are still often used in the initial imaging of patients with a suspected complication of Crohn’s disease. We confirmed the superiority of modified dose CT with MBIR over abdominal radiographs at comparable doses in detection of Crohn’s disease and non-Crohn’s disease related findings. Finally, we demonstrated (in phantoms, cadavers and in vivo) that attenuation values do not change significantly across reconstruction algorithms meaning preserved tissue characterisation capabilities with iterative reconstruction. Both adaptive statistical and model based iterative reconstruction algorithms represent feasible methods of facilitating acquisition diagnostic quality CT images of the abdomen and pelvis in patients with Crohn’s disease at markedly reduced radiation doses. Our modified dose CT protocol allows dose savings of up to 73.5% compared with conventional dose CT, meaning submillisievert imaging is possible in many of these patients.

An R-package for the Estimation and Testing of Multiple Covariates and Biomarker Interactions for Survival Data Based on Local Partial Likelihood

When we study the variables that a ffect survival time, we usually estimate their eff ects by the Cox regression model. In biomedical research, e ffects of the covariates are often modi ed by a biomarker variable. This leads to covariates-biomarker interactions. Here biomarker is an objective measurement of the patient characteristics at baseline. Liu et al. (2015) has built up a local partial likelihood bootstrap model to estimate and test this interaction e ffect of covariates and biomarker, but the R code developed by Liu et al. (2015) can only handle one variable and one interaction term and can not t the model with adjustment to nuisance variables. In this project, we expand the model to allow adjustment to nuisance variables, expand the R code to take any chosen interaction terms, and we set up many parameters for users to customize their research. We also build up an R package called "lplb" to integrate the complex computations into a simple interface. We conduct numerical simulation to show that the new method has excellent fi nite sample properties under both the null and alternative hypothesis. We also applied the method to analyze data from a prostate cancer clinical trial with acid phosphatase (AP) biomarker.

A literature review to Examine the Validity and Reliability of group poster presentations as an assessment method of a module in an undergraduate nursing degree programme

The introduction of a poster presentation as a formative assessment method over a multiple choice examination after the first phase of a three phase “health and well-being” module in an undergraduate nursing degree programme was greeted with a storm of criticism from fellow lecturers stating that poster presentations are not valid or reliable and totally irrelevant to the assessment of learning in the module. This paper seeks to investigate these criticisms by investigating the literature regarding producing nurses fit for practice, nurse curriculum development and wider nurse education, the purpose of assessment, validity and reliability to critically evaluate the poster presentation as a legitimate assessment method for these aims.

The Accuracy and Reliability of Traditional Surface Flow Type Mapping: Is It Time for A New Method of Characterising Physical River Habitat?

Surface flow types (SFT) are advocated as ecologically relevant hydraulic units, often mapped visually from the bankside to characterise rapidly the physical habitat of rivers. SFT mapping is simple, non-invasive and cost-efficient. However, it is also qualitative, subjective and plagued by difficulties in recording accurately the spatial extent of SFT units. Quantitative validation of the underlying physical habitat parameters is often lacking, and does not consistently differentiate between SFTs. Here, we investigate explicitly the accuracy, reliability and statistical separability of traditionally mapped SFTs as indicators of physical habitat, using independent, hydraulic and topographic data collected during three surveys of a c. 50m reach of the River Arrow, Warwickshire, England. We also explore the potential of a novel remote sensing approach, comprising a small unmanned aerial system (sUAS) and Structure-from-Motion photogrammetry (SfM), as an alternative method of physical habitat characterisation. Our key findings indicate that SFT mapping accuracy is highly variable, with overall mapping accuracy not exceeding 74%. Results from analysis of similarity (ANOSIM) tests found that strong differences did not exist between all SFT pairs. This leads us to question the suitability of SFTs for characterising physical habitat for river science and management applications. In contrast, the sUAS-SfM approach provided high resolution, spatially continuous, spatially explicit, quantitative measurements of water depth and point cloud roughness at the microscale (spatial scales ≤1m). Such data are acquired rapidly, inexpensively, and provide new opportunities for examining the heterogeneity of physical habitat over a range of spatial and temporal scales. Whilst continued refinement of the sUAS-SfM approach is required, we propose that this method offers an opportunity to move away from broad, mesoscale classifications of physical habitat (spatial scales 10-100m), and towards continuous, quantitative measurements of the continuum of hydraulic and geomorphic conditions which actually exists at the microscale.

Congenital thoracic vertebral malformations in brachycephalic “screw-tailed” dog breeds: Validation of a human classification scheme and a method of Cobb angle measurement in the assessment of vertebral column deformity

Congenital vertebral malformations are common in brachycephalic “screw-tailed” dog breeds such as French bulldogs, English bulldogs, Boston terriers, and Pugs. Those vertebral malformations disrupt the normal vertebral column anatomy and biomechanics, potentially leading to deformity of the vertebral column and subsequent neurological dysfunction. The initial aim of this work was to study and determine whether the congenital vertebral malformations identified in those breeds could be translated in a radiographic classification scheme used in humans to give an improved classification, with clear and well-defined terminology, with the expectation that this would facilitate future study and clinical management in the veterinary field. Therefore, two observers who were blinded to the neurologic status of the dogs classified each vertebral malformation based on the human classification scheme of McMaster and were able to translate them successfully into a new classification scheme for veterinary use. The following aim was to assess the nature and the impact of vertebral column deformity engendered by those congenital vertebral malformations in the target breeds. As no gold standard exists in veterinary medicine for the calculation of the degree of deformity, it was elected to adapt the human equivalent, termed the Cobb angle, as a potential standard reference tool for use in veterinary practice. For the validation of the Cobb angle measurement method, a computerised semi-automatic technique was used and assessed by multiple independent observers. They observed not only that Kyphosis was the most common vertebral column deformity but also that patients with such deformity were found to be more likely to suffer from neurological deficits, more especially if their Cobb angle was above 35 degrees.

TiMMing: developing an innovative suite of bioinformatic tools to harmonize and track the origin of copy number alterations in the evolutive history of multiple myeloma

Multiple Myeloma (MM) is a hematologic cancer with heterogeneous and complex genomic landscape, where Copy Number Alterations (CNAs) play a key role in the disease's pathogenesis and prognosis. It is of biological and clinical interest to study the temporal occurrence of early alterations, as they play a disease "driver" function by deregulating key tumor pathways. This study presents an innovative bioinformatic tools suite created for harmonizing and tracing the origin of CNAs throughout the evolutionary history of MM. To this aim, large cohorts of newly-diagnosed MM (NDMM, N=1582) and Smoldering-MM (SMM, N=282) were aggregated. The tools developed in this study enable the harmonization of CNAs as obtained from different genomic platforms in such a way that a high statistical power can be obtained. By doing so, the high numerosity of those cohorts was harnessed for the identification of novel genes characterized as "driver" (NFKB2, NOTCH2, MAX, EVI5 and MYC-ME2-enhancer), and the generation of an innovative timing model, implemented with a statistical method to introduce confidence intervals in the CNAs-calls. By applying this model on both NDMM and SMM cohorts, it was possible to identify specific CNAs (1q(CKS1B)amp, 13q(RB1)del, 11q(CCND1)amp and 14q(MAX)del) and categorize them as "early"/ "driver" events. A high level of precision was guaranteed by the narrow confidence intervals in the timing estimates. These CNAs were proposed as critical MM alterations, which play a foundational role in the evolutionary history of both SMM and NDMM. Finally, a multivariate survival model was able to identify the independent genomic alterations with the greatest effect on patients’ survival, including RB1-del, CKS1B-amp, MYC-amp, NOTCH2-amp and TRAF3-del/mut. In conclusion, the alterations that were identified as both "early-drivers” and correlated with patients’ survival were proposed as biomarkers that, if included in wider survival models, could provide a better disease stratification and an improved prognosis definition.