Bayesian model comparison in cosmology with Population Monte Carlo

We use Bayesian model selection techniques to test extensions of the standard flat LambdaCDM paradigm. Dark-energy and curvature scenarios, and primordial perturbation models are considered. To that end, we calculate the Bayesian evidence in favour of each model using Population Monte Carlo (PMC), a new adaptive sampling technique which was recently applied in a cosmological context. The Bayesian evidence is immediately available from the PMC sample used for parameter estimation without further computational effort, and it comes with an associated error evaluation. Besides, it provides an unbiased estimator of the evidence after any fixed number of iterations and it is naturally parallelizable, in contrast with MCMC and nested sampling methods. By comparison with analytical predictions for simulated data, we show that our results obtained with PMC are reliable and robust. The variability in the evidence evaluation and the stability for various cases are estimated both from simulations and from data. For the cases we consider, the log-evidence is calculated with a precision of better than 0.08. Using a combined set of recent CMB, SNIa and BAO data, we find inconclusive evidence between flat LambdaCDM and simple dark-energy models. A curved Universe is moderately to strongly disfavoured with respect to a flat cosmology. Using physically well-motivated priors within the slow-roll approximation of inflation, we find a weak preference for a running spectral index. A Harrison-Zel'dovich spectrum is weakly disfavoured. With the current data, tensor modes are not detected; the large prior volume on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r results in moderate evidence in favour of r=0.

Diário da Constituinte [gravação de vídeo] : [programa n. 226]

A Comissão de Sistematização da Assembleia Nacional Constituinte (ANC) debate emenda sobre a criação da Defensoria Pública. A Defensoria defende o cidadão contra ações ou omissões praticadas por empresas públicas. O Senador Nelson Carneiro (PMDB-RJ) apoia a Defensoria, assinalando que se trata de uma carreira composta por elementos escolhidos por concurso público e orientados por um Procurador-Geral da Defensoria, que deverão defender os pobres contra os mais poderosos. Plenário discute a representação política. O novo projeto eleva de sessenta para oitenta o número máximo de deputados federais por Estado, beneficiando apenas o Estado de São Paulo. A medida é polêmica porque, mantido o número atual de cadeiras na Câmara, os Estados pequenos teriam sua representação diminuída. O Deputado Victor Fontana (PFL-SC) propõe diminuir o número de deputados na Câmara, afirmando que o último aumento para quatrocentos e oitenta e sete (487) deputados não trouxe mais eficiência e nem conseguiu recuperar a credibilidade dos políticos perante o eleitor. O Deputado Antônio Salim Curiati (PDS-SP) defende a redução para duzentos e vinte e cinco (225) deputados. Os Deputados Celso Dourado (PMDB-BA) e Roberto Rollemberg (PMDB-SP) querem ampliar o número de representantes. Senadores franceses visitaram o Congresso para conhecer os trabalhos da Assembleia Nacional Constituinte (ANC). O presidente da ANC, Deputado Ulysses Guimarães (PMDB-SP) explicou aos senadores que, no Brasil, preferiu-se a organização da Constituinte dividida em comissões temáticas, com a participação de todos os representantes. Os parlamentares franceses também queriam saber sobre a discussão do tema "sistema de governo". O Deputado Ulysses Guimarães declara que esse é um dos temas mais polêmicos e que as negociações ainda não foram concluídas. O Senador Jean François Pintat afirmou que os franceses vêm com bons olhos o trabalho desenvolvido, porque a Constituinte representa a promessa de uma verdadeira democracia.

Museos y parques naturales: comunidades locales, administraciones públicas y patrimonialización de la cultura y la naturaleza

Cap. 1. Patrimonialización cultural y natural: un proceso, múltiples aproximaciones. Cap. 2. Comment un musée de ville peut-il être au service des citoyens? Un parcours et quelques pistes d’action. Jean-François Leclerc. Cap. 3. Los museos comunitarios de Kuna Yala y la memoria histórica. Anelio Merry López Cap. 4. Turismo y museos en la ciudad de Valencia. Javier Martí. Cap. 5. La Red de Museos Etnográficos de Asturias: proyecto y realidad. Juaco López Álvarez. Cap. 6. Culturas campesinas y conservación del patrimonio natur-rural. Jaime Izquierdo. Cap. 7. Faire et savoir faire un « territoire patrimonial » : Parc naturel régional du Haut-Jura (France). Olivier Givre. Cap. 8. Espacios naturales y especies salvajes. La construcción de la naturaleza como patrimonio en el Pallars Sobirà, Pirineo catalán. Oriol Beltran e Ismael Vaccaro. Cap. 9. L’histoire au cœur de la cité : l’exemple du laboratoire d’histoire et de patrimoine de Montréal. Joanne Burgess.

Precision and accuracy of fish length measurements obtained with two visual underwater methods

During the VITAL cruise in the Bay of Biscay in summer 2002, two devices for measuring the length of swimming fish were tested: 1) a mechanical crown that emitted a pair of parallel laser beams and that was mounted on the main camera and 2) an underwater auto-focus video camera. The precision and accuracy of these devices were compared and the various sources of measurement errors were estimated by repeatedly measuring fixed and mobile objects and live fish. It was found that fish mobility is the main source of error for these devices because they require that the objects to be measured are perpendicular to the field of vision. The best performance was obtained with the laser method where a video-replay of laser spots (projected on fish bodies) carrying real-time size information was used. The auto-focus system performed poorly because of a delay in obtaining focus and because of some technical problems.

Modos da soberania e a questão do poder na teoria política contemporânea

O comparecimento do tema da soberania ao pensamento político está diretamente ligado à definição da teoria política como campo específico do saber. Admitindo-se que os operadores e referências cognitivas da soberania já se encontravam disponíveis mesmo antes do advento moderno do conceito, é possível identificar seus componentes no interior de reflexões que não necessariamente fazem menção expressa ao próprio vocábulo. Partindo de uma breve recuperação histórica da soberania (Bodin, Maquiavel, Hobbes), o estudo aqui apresentado busca identificar a presença dos seus componentes no interior de tradições que lhe são potencialmente refratárias. Examinando algumas das correntes mais radicais do pensamento liberal (Hayek, Popper, Michael Polanyi), reconhecendo-as igualmente como postulados de soberania, o trabalho culmina com a investigação das iniciativas contemporâneas (Carl Schmitt, Antonio Negri) na elaboração dos seus principais impasses teóricos. Neste contexto mais recente, o tema da soberania será pensado a partir de noções correlatas, dentre as quais figura com destaque a de poder constituinte, elaborada por Sieyès durante a Revolução Francesa.

Common evolutionary origin of aquareoviruses and orthoreoviruses revealed by genome characterization of Golden shiner reovirus, Grass carp reovirus, Striped bass reovirus and golden ide reovirus (genus Aquareovirus, family Reoviridae)

Full-length and partial genome sequences of four members of the genus Aquareovirus, family Reoviridae (Golden shiner reovirus, Grass carp reovirus, Striped bass reovirus and golden ide reovirus) were characterized. Based on sequence comparison, the unclassified Grass carp reovirus was shown to be a member of the species Aquareovirus C The status of golden ide reovirus, another unclassified aquareovirus, was also examined. Sequence analysis showed that it did not belong to the species Aquareovirus A or C, but assessment of its relationship to the species Aquareovirus B, D, E and F was hampered by the absence of genetic data from these species. In agreement with previous reports of ultrastructural resemblance between aquareoviruses and orthoreoviruses, genetic analysis revealed homology in the genes of the two groups. This homology concerned eight of the 11 segments of the aquareovirus genome (amino acid identity 17-42%), and similar genetic organization was observed in two other segments. The conserved terminal sequences in the genomes of members of the two groups were also similar. These data are undoubtedly an indication of the common evolutionary origin of these viruses. This clear genetic relatedness between members of distinct genera is unique within the family Reoviridae. Such a genetic relationship is usually observed between members of a single genus. However, the current taxonomic classification of aquareoviruses and orthoreoviruses in two different genera is supported by a number of characteristics, including their distinct G+C contents, unequal numbers of genome segments, absence of an antigenic relationship, different cytopathic effects and specific econiches.

Alpha-fetoprotein controls female fertility and prenatal development of the gonadotropin-releasing hormone pathway through an antiestrogenic action

It has been shown previously that female mice homozygous for an alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) null allele are sterile as a result of anovulation, probably due to a defect in the hypothalamic-pituitary axis. Here we show that these female mice exhibit specific anomalies in the expression of numerous genes in the pituitary, including genes involved in the gonadotropin-releasing hormone pathway, which are underexpressed. In the hypothalamus, the gonadotropin-releasing hormone gene, Gnrh1, was also found to be down-regulated. However, pituitary gene expression could be normalized and fertility could be rescued by blocking prenatal estrogen synthesis using an aromatase inhibitor. These results show that AFP protects the developing female brain from the adverse effects of prenatal estrogen exposure and clarify a long-running debate on the role of this fetal protein in brain sexual differentiation.

Fission dynamics for capture reactions in 58,64ni + 208pb systems: New results in terms of thermal energy and neutron multiplicity correlated distributions

The neutron multidetector DéMoN has been used to investigate the symmetric splitting dynamics in the reactions 58.64Ni + 208Pb with excitation energies ranging from 65 to 186 MeV for the composite system. An analysis based on the new backtracing technique has been applied on the neutron data to determine the two-dimensional correlations between the parent composite system initial thermal energy (EthCN) and the total neutron multiplicity (νtot), and between pre- and post-scission neutron multiplicities (νpre and νpost, respectively). The νpre distribution shape indicates the possible coexistence of fast-fission and fusion-fission for the system 58Ni + 208Pb (Ebeam = 8.86 A MeV). The analysis of the neutron multiplicities in the framework of the combined dynamical statistical model (CDSM) gives a reduced friction coefficient β = 23 ± 2512 × 1021 s-1, above the one-body dissipation limit. The corresponding fission time is τf = 40 ± 4620 × 10-21 s. © 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The missing link between information and action: hastenings and delays as universal reactions to performance feedback

This chapter focuses on what the key decision makers in organizations decide after having received information on the current state of the organizational performance. Because of strong attributions to success and failure, it is impossible to predict in advance which concrete actions will occur. We can however find out what kinds of actions are decided upon by means of an organizational learning model that focuses on the hastenings and delays after performance feedback. As an illustration, the responses to performance signals by trainers and club owners in Dutch soccer clubs are analyzed.

La influencia de las nuevas tecnologías en los hábitos de lectura: análisis de las noticias de "El País", "El Mundo" y "ABC" (2011)

En este texto se explica el cambio de hábitos que ha supuesto la lectura en formato digital. Se indican los factores que determinan la selección un formato u otro, al igual que la situación en la que se encuentra la lectura digital en España. Para ello, se analizan las noticias sobre este tema encontradas en los periódicos: ABC, El País y El Mundo durante el año 2011 -período relevante para la lectura digital- y se comparan con los resultados de las encuestas de AIMC, FGEE, etc., con el fin de sacar conclusiones certeras.

Do multinationals really prefer to enter culturally distant countries through greenfields rather than through acquisitions? The role of parent experience and subsidiary autonomy.

Prior research has argued that multinational enterprises (MNEs) prefer to enter culturally distant countries through greenfields rather than through acquisitions, since acquisitions in such countries are costlier to manage. This argument contains two hidden assumptions: (1) the additional costs of acquisitions in culturally distant countries are the same for all MNEs; and (2) such acquisitions have no benefits over their greenfield counterparts. In this paper we relax these two assumptions by arguing that an MNE's preference for greenfields in culturally distant countries depends on its international and host-country experience, and on the level of autonomy it plans to grant the focal subsidiary. Analyzing 171 wholly owned greenfield investments and full acquisitions made by Dutch MNEs in 35 countries, we find that these MNEs prefer to enter culturally distant countries through greenfields, but that this preference is lower when they have little international experience, or plan to grant the focal subsidiary considerable autonomy in marketing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Down with MNE-centric theories! Market entry and expansion as the bundling of MNE and local assets

Both Anderson and Gatignon and the Uppsala internationalization model see the initial mode of foreign market entry and subsequent modes of operation as unilaterally determined by multinational enterprises (MNEs) arbitraging control and risk and increasing their commitment as they gain experience in the target market. OLI and internalization models do recognize that foreign market entry requires the bundling of MNE and complementary local assets, which they call location or country-specific advantages, but implicitly assume that those assets are freely accessible to MNEs. In contrast to both of these MNE-centric views, I explicitly consider the transactional characteristics of complementary local assets and model foreign market entry as the optimal assignment of equity between their owners and MNEs. By looking at the relative efficiency of the different markets in which MNE and complementary local assets are traded, and at how these two categories of assets match, I am able to predict whether equity will be held by MNEs or by local firms, or shared between them, and whether MNEs will enter through greenfields, brownfields, or acquisitions. The bundling model I propose has interesting implications for the evolution of the MNE footprint in host countries, and for the reasons behind the emergence of Dragon MNEs.

Do Foreign Greenfields Outperform Foreign Acquisitions or Vice Versa? An Institutional Perspective.

Prior studies of the comparative performance of greenfields and acquisitions have advanced competing arguments, with some arguing that greenfields should outperform acquisitions because acquisitions are costlier to integrate, and others that acquisitions should outperform greenfields because greenfields suffer from a liability of newness. Moreover, while the costs of integration and the liability of newness are at their greatest during a subsidiary's first years, prior studies have tested their competing arguments on samples containing older subsidiaries. We extend these prior studies by (1) developing an institutional theory-based framework that simultaneously considers the costs of integration and the liability of newness, (2) recognizing that both types of costs vary with the level of subsidiary integration, and (3) focusing on the stage of their life during which subsidiaries predominantly incur these costs. To measure subsidiary performance, we ask managers of Dutch multinationals how their ex ante performance expectations compare to the subsidiary's ex post performance during its first two years. Analysing a sample of 191 foreign subsidiaries and controlling for entry mode self-selection and other factors, we find that acquisitions outperform greenfields at low and intermediate levels of subsidiary integration, but that greenfields outperform acquisitions at higher integration levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Why and how FDI stocks are a biased measure of MNE affiliate activity

Many international business (IB) studies have used foreign direct investment (FDI) stocks to measure the aggregate value-adding activity of multinational enterprises (MNE) affiliates in host countries. We argue that FDI stocks are a biased measure of that activity, because the degree to which they overestimate or underestimate affiliate activity varies systematically with host-country characteristics. First, most FDI into countries that serve as tax havens generate no actual productive activity; thus FDI stocks in such countries overestimate affiliate activity. Second, FDI stocks do not include locally raised external funds, funds widely used in countries with well-developed financial markets or volatile exchange rates, resulting in an underestimation of affiliate activity in such countries. Finally, the extent to which FDI translates into affiliate activity increases with affiliate labor productivity, so in countries where labor is more productive, FDI stocks also result in an underestimation of affiliate activity. We test these hypotheses by first regressing affiliate value-added and affiliate sales on FDI stocks to calculate a country-specific mismatch, and then by regressing this mismatch on a host country's tax haven status, level of financial market development, exchange rate volatility, and affiliate labor productivity. All hypotheses are supported, implying that FDI stocks are a biased measure of MNE affiliate activity, and hence that the results of FDI-data-based studies of such activity need to be reconsidered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On the Qualitative Comparison of Decisions Having Positive and Negative Features

Making a decision is often a matter of listing and comparing positive and negative arguments. In such cases, the evaluation scale for decisions should be considered bipolar, that is, negative and positive values should be explicitly distinguished. That is what is done, for example, in Cumulative Prospect Theory. However, contrary to the latter framework that presupposes genuine numerical assessments, human agents often decide on the basis of an ordinal ranking of the pros and the cons, and by focusing on the most salient arguments. In other terms, the decision process is qualitative as well as bipolar. In this article, based on a bipolar extension of possibility theory, we define and axiomatically characterize several decision rules tailored for the joint handling of positive and negative arguments in an ordinal setting. The simplest rules can be viewed as extensions of the maximin and maximax criteria to the bipolar case, and consequently suffer from poor decisive power. More decisive rules that refine the former are also proposed. These refinements agree both with principles of efficiency and with the spirit of order-of-magnitude reasoning, that prevails in qualitative decision theory. The most refined decision rule uses leximin rankings of the pros and the cons, and the ideas of counting arguments of equal strength and cancelling pros by cons. It is shown to come down to a special case of Cumulative Prospect Theory, and to subsume the “Take the Best” heuristic studied by cognitive psychologists.