Dynamic modelling of long-term care decisions

This paper describes and analyzes research on the dynamics of long-term care and the policy relevance of identifying the sources of persistence in caregiving arrangements (including the effect of dynamics on parameter estimates, implications for family welfare, parent welfare, child welfare, and cost of government programs). We discuss sources and causes of observed persistence in caregiving arrangements including inertia/state dependence (confounded by unobserved heterogeneity) and costs of changing caregivers. We comment on causes of dynamics including learning/human capital accumulation; burnout; and game-playing. We suggest how to deal with endogenous geography; dynamics in discrete and continuous choices; and equilibrium issues (multiple equilibria, dynamic equilibria). We also present an overview of commonly used longitudinal data sets and evaluate their relative advantages/disadvantages. We also discuss other data issues related to noisy measures of wealth and family structure. Finally, we suggest some methods to handle econometric problems such as endogeneous geography. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

Strategic play among family members when making long-term care decisions

This paper describes a strategic model of bargaining within a family to determine how to care for an elderly parent. We estimate the parameters of the model using data from the National Long-term Care Survey. We find that the parameter estimates generally make sense and that the model is consistent with the data. The results have strong implications for using less structural empirical models for policy analysis.

Long-term care and family bargaining

We present a structural model of how families decide who should care for elderly parents. We use data from the National Long-Term Care Survey to estimate and test the parameters of the model. Then we use the parameter estimates to simulate the effects of the existing long-term trends in terms of the common but untested explanations for them. Finally, we simulate the effects of alternative family bargaining rules on individual utility to measure the sensitivity of our results to the family decision-making assumptions we make.

Measuring child work and residence adjustments to parents' long-term care needs

This article estimates the effects of various parent and child characteristics on the choice of care arrangement of the parent, taking into account the potential endogeneity of some of the child characteristics. Three equations are estimated: a care choice equation, a child location equation, and a child work equation. Results suggest a hierarchy of family decision making; child locations affect the care decision, which affects child work decisions. The results also question previous research attempting to explain causes of secular trends in long-term care.

Gene electrotransfer into murine skeletal muscle: A systematic analysis of parameters for long-term gene expression

Skeletal muscle is an attractive target tissue for delivery of therapeutic genes, since it is well vascularized, easily accessible, and has a high capacity for protein synthesis. For efficient transfection in skeletal muscle, several protocols have been described, including delivery of low voltage electric pulses and a combination of high and low voltage electric pulses. The aim of this study was to determine the influence of different parameters of electrotransfection on short-term and long-term transfection efficiency in murine skeletal muscle, and to evaluate histological changes in the treated tissue. Different parameters of electric pulses, different time lags between plasmid DNA injection and application of electric pulses, and different doses of plasmid DNA were tested for electrotransfection of tibialis cranialis muscle of C57BI/6 mice using DNA plasmid encoding green fluorescent protein (GFP). Transfection efficiency was assessed on frozen tissue sections one week after electrotransfection using a fluorescence microscope and also noninvasively, followed by an in vivo imaging system using a fluorescence stereo microscope over a period of several months. Histological changes in muscle were evaluated immediately or several months after electrotransfection by determining infiltration of inflammatory mononuclear cells and presence of necrotic muscle fibers. The most efficient electrotransfection into skeletal muscle of C57BI/6 mice in our experiments was achieved when one high voltage (HV) and four low voltage (LV) electric pulses were applied 5 seconds after the injection of 30 μg of plasmid DNA. This protocol resulted in the highest short-term as well as long-term transfection. The fluorescence intensity of the transfected area declined after 2-3 weeks, but GFP fluorescence was still detectable 18 months after electrotransfection. Extensive inflammatory mononuclear cell infiltration was observed immediately after the electrotransfection procedure using the described parameters, but no necrosis or late tissue damage was observed. This study showed that electric pulse parameters, time lag between the injection of DNA and application of electric pulses, and dose of plasmid DNA affected the duration of transgene expression in murine skeletal muscle. Therefore, transgene expression in muscle can be controlled by appropriate selection of electrotransfection protocol.

Long-term exploration and tours for energy constrained robots with online proprioceptive traversability estimation

This paper is concerned with how a localised and energy-constrained robot can maximise its time in the field by taking paths and tours that minimise its energy expenditure. A significant component of a robot's energy is expended on mobility and is a function of terrain traversability. We estimate traversability online from data sensed by the robot as it moves, and use this to generate maps, explore and ultimately converge on minimum energy tours of the environment. We provide results of detailed simulations and parameter studies that show the efficacy of this approach for a robot moving over terrain with unknown traversability as well as a number of a priori unknown hard obstacles.

Effect of broadcast baiting on abundance patterns of red imported fire ants (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) and key local ant genera at long-term monitoring sites in Brisbane, Australia

In 2001, the red imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta Buren) was identified in Brisbane, Australia. An eradication program involving broadcast bait treatment with two insect growth regulators and a metabolic inhibitor began in September of that year and is currently ongoing. To gauge the impacts of these treatments on local ant populations, we examined long-term monitoring data and quantified abundance patterns of S. invicta and common local ant genera using a linear mixed-effects model. For S. invicta, presence in pitfalls reduced over time to zero on every site. Significantly higher numbers of S. invicta workers were collected on high-density polygyne sites, which took longer to disinfest compared with monogyne and low-density polygyne sites. For local ants, nine genus groups of the 10 most common genera analyzed either increased in abundance or showed no significant trend. Five of these genus groups were significantly less abundant at the start of monitoring on high-density polygyne sites compared with monogyne and low-density polygyne sites. The genus Pheidole significantly reduced in abundance over time, suggesting that it was affected by treatment efforts. These results demonstrate that the treatment regime used at the time successfully removed S. invicta from these sites in Brisbane, and that most local ant genera were not seriously impacted by the treatment. These results have important implications for current and future prophylactic treatment efforts, and suggest that native ants remain in treated areas to provide some biological resistance to S. invicta.

An adaptive appearance-based map for long-term topological localization of mobile robots

"This work considers a mobile service robot which uses an appearance-based representation of its workplace as a map, where the current view and the map are used to estimate the current position in the environment. Due to the nature of real-world environments such as houses and offices, where the appearance keeps changing, the internal representation may become out of date after some time. To solve this problem the robot needs to be able to adapt its internal representation continually to the changes in the environment. This paper presents a method for creating an adaptive map for long-term appearance-based localization of a mobile robot using long-term and short-term memory concepts, with omni-directional vision as the external sensor."--publisher website

Long-term experiments with an adaptive spherical view representation for navigation in changing environments

Real-world environments such as houses and offices change over time, meaning that a mobile robot’s map will become out of date. In this work, we introduce a method to update the reference views in a hybrid metrictopological map so that a mobile robot can continue to localize itself in a changing environment. The updating mechanism, based on the multi-store model of human memory, incorporates a spherical metric representation of the observed visual features for each node in the map, which enables the robot to estimate its heading and navigate using multi-view geometry, as well as representing the local 3D geometry of the environment. A series of experiments demonstrate the persistence performance of the proposed system in real changing environments, including analysis of the long-term stability.

Toward an object-based semantic memory for long-term operation of mobile service robots

Throughout a lifetime of operation, a mobile service robot needs to acquire, store and update its knowledge of a working environment. This includes the ability to identify and track objects in different places, as well as using this information for interaction with humans. This paper introduces a long-term updating mechanism, inspired by the modal model of human memory, to enable a mobile robot to maintain its knowledge of a changing environment. The memory model is integrated with a hybrid map that represents the global topology and local geometry of the environment, as well as the respective 3D location of objects. We aim to enable the robot to use this knowledge to help humans by suggesting the most likely locations of specific objects in its map. An experiment using omni-directional vision demonstrates the ability to track the movements of several objects in a dynamic environment over an extended period of time.

Fischer rats consume 20% ethanol in a long-term intermittent-access two-bottle-choice paradigm

The 20% ethanol intermittent-access (IAE) two-bottle-choice drinking procedure has been shown to produce high voluntary ethanol consumption in a number of rat strains. For this study, we applied this procedure to male Fischer (F344) rats, a strain previously reported to exhibit low levels of ethanol consumption. We also subjected these animals to a two-week ethanoldeprivation- period to see if they would exhibit an alcohol deprivation effect (ADE) signified by a transient increase in alcohol consumption following deprivation. Our data show a separation between high and low consuming animals within this strain, with high-consumers exhibiting an escalation in consumption. In contrast, Fischer rats did not show a significant separation between high and low consumers or any significant escalation in consumption, using the 20% ethanol continuous-access two-bottle-choice drinking protocol. Following the two-week deprivation period, animals in the high (but not the low) IAE group exhibited the transient increase in ethanol consumption and preference typically associated with an ADE. Together, the data suggest that the intermittent access protocol is a useful protocol for increasing ethanol consumption.

Influence of polymorphisms of GSTM1 and GSTT1 for risk of renal cell cancer in workers with long-term high occupational exposure to trichloroethene

Suspected nephrocarcinogenic effects of trichloroethene (TRI) in humans are attributed to metabolites derived from the glutathione transferase (GST) pathway. The influence of polymorphisms of GSTM1 and GSTT1 isoenzymes on the risk of renal cell cancer in subjects having been exposed to high levels of TRI over many years was investigated. GSTM1 and GSTT1 genotypes were determined by internal standard controlled polymerase chain reaction. Fourty-five cases with histologically verified renal cell cancer and a history of long-term occupational exposure to high concentrations of TRI were studied. A reference group consisted of 48 workers from the same geographical region with similar histories of occupational exposures to TRI but not suffering from any cancer. Among the 45 renal cell cancer patients, 27 carried at least one functional GSTM1 (GSTM1 +) and 18 at least one functional GSTT1 (GSTT1 +). Among the 48 reference workers, 17 were GSTM1 + and 31 were GSTT1 +. Odds ratios for renal cell cancer were 2.7 for GSTM1 + individuals (95% CI, 1.18-6.33; P < 0.02) and 4.2 for GSTT1 + individuals (95% CI, 1.16-14.91; P < 0.05), respectively. The data support the present concept of the nephrocarcinogenicity of TRI.

Functional magnetic resonance brain imaging of executive cognitive performance in young first-episode schizophrenia patients and age-matched long-term cannabis users

Converging evidence from epidemiological, clinical and neuropsychological research suggests a link between cannabis use and increased risk of psychosis. Long-term cannabis use has also been related to deficit-like “negative” symptoms and cognitive impairment that resemble some of the clinical and cognitive features of schizophrenia. The current functional brain imaging study investigated the impact of a history of heavy cannabis use on impaired executive function in first-episode schizophrenia patients. Whilst performing the Tower of London task in a magnetic resonance imaging scanner, event-related blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) brain activation was compared between four age and gender-matched groups: 12 first-episode schizophrenia patients; 17 long-term cannabis users; seven cannabis using first-episode schizophrenia patients; and 17 healthy control subjects. BOLD activation was assessed as a function of increasing task difficulty within and between groups as well as the main effects of cannabis use and the diagnosis of schizophrenia. Cannabis users and non-drug using first-episode schizophrenia patients exhibited equivalently reduced dorsolateral prefrontal activation in response to task difficulty. A trend towards additional prefrontal and left superior parietal cortical activation deficits was observed in cannabis-using first-episode schizophrenia patients while a history of cannabis use accounted for increased activation in the visual cortex. Cannabis users and schizophrenia patients fail to adequately activate the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, thus pointing to a common working memory impairment which is particularly evident in cannabis-using first-episode schizophrenia patients. A history of heavy cannabis use, on the other hand, accounted for increased primary visual processing, suggesting compensatory imagery processing of the task.

Foundations for the future : A long-term plan for Australian ecosystem science

Abstract: Australia’s ecosystems are the basis of our current and future prosperity, and our national well-being.A strong and sustainable Australian ecosystem science enterprise is vital for understanding and securing these ecosystems in the face of current and future challenges. This Plan defines the vision and key directions for a national ecosystem science capability that will enable Australia to understand and effectively manage its ecosystems for decades to come.The Plan’s underlying theme is that excellent science supports a range of activities, including public engagement, that enable us to understand and maintain healthy ecosystems.Those healthy ecosystems are the cornerstone of our social and economic well-being.The vision guiding the development of this Plan is that in 20 years’ time the status of Australian ecosystems and how they change will be widely reported and understood, and the prosperity and well-being they provide will be secure. To enable this, Australia’s national ecosystem science capability will be coordinated, collaborative and connected.The Plan is based on an extensive set of collaboratively generated proposals from national town hall meetings that also formthe basis for its implementation. Some directions within the Plan are for the Australian ecosystem science community itself to implement, others will involve the users of ecosystem science and the groups that fund ecosystem science.We identify six equal priority areas for action to achieve our vision: (i) delivering maximum impact for Australia: enhancing relationships between scientists and end-users; (ii) supporting long-termresearch; (iii) enabling ecosystem surveillance; (iv) making the most of data resources; (v) inspiring a generation: empowering the public with knowledge and opportunities; (vi) facilitating coordination, collaboration and leadership. This shared vision will enable us to consolidate our current successes, overcome remaining barriers and establish the foundations to ensure Australian ecosystem science delivers for the future needs of Australia..