Agregação e viés em medidas de diversidade: uma abordagem computacional intensiva

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Algumas distribuições de probalidade para idosos grupados e censurados

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Distribuição estatística do faturamento das empresas brasileiras: técnica de Zipf

Pós-graduação em Física - IGCE

Estudo da forma e da distribuição de tamanho de partículas de alumina em dispersões coloidais relacionado a sedimentação gravitacional

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Modelagem em análise de sobrevivencia com eventos recorrentes aplicada a dados da área médica

Pós-graduação em Biometria - IBB

A aplicação da distribuição exponencial geométrica estendida para modelagem de dados pluviométricos

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Stochastic knock detection model for spark ignited engines

This report presents the development of a Stochastic Knock Detection (SKD) method for combustion knock detection in a spark-ignition engine using a model based design approach. Knock Signal Simulator (KSS) was developed as the plant model for the engine. The KSS as the plant model for the engine generates cycle-to-cycle accelerometer knock intensities following a stochastic approach with intensities that are generated using a Monte Carlo method from a lognormal distribution whose parameters have been predetermined from engine tests and dependent upon spark-timing, engine speed and load. The lognormal distribution has been shown to be a good approximation to the distribution of measured knock intensities over a range of engine conditions and spark-timings for multiple engines in previous studies. The SKD method is implemented in Knock Detection Module (KDM) which processes the knock intensities generated by KSS with a stochastic distribution estimation algorithm and outputs estimates of high and low knock intensity levels which characterize knock and reference level respectively. These estimates are then used to determine a knock factor which provides quantitative measure of knock level and can be used as a feedback signal to control engine knock. The knock factor is analyzed and compared with a traditional knock detection method to detect engine knock under various engine operating conditions. To verify the effectiveness of the SKD method, a knock controller was also developed and tested in a model-in-loop (MIL) system. The objective of the knock controller is to allow the engine to operate as close as possible to its border-line spark-timing without significant engine knock. The controller parameters were tuned to minimize the cycle-to-cycle variation in spark timing and the settling time of the controller in responding to step increase in spark advance resulting in the onset of engine knock. The simulation results showed that the combined system can be used adequately to model engine knock and evaluated knock control strategies for a wide range of engine operating conditions.

Statistics of the received power for free space optical channels

Free space optical (FSO) communication links can experience extreme signal degradation due to atmospheric turbulence induced spatial and temporal irradiance fuctuations (scintillation) in the laser wavefront. In addition, turbulence can cause the laser beam centroid to wander resulting in power fading, and sometimes complete loss of the signal. Spreading of the laser beam and jitter are also artifacts of atmospheric turbulence. To accurately predict the signal fading that occurs in a laser communication system and to get a true picture of how this affects crucial performance parameters like bit error rate (BER) it is important to analyze the probability density function (PDF) of the integrated irradiance fuctuations at the receiver. In addition, it is desirable to find a theoretical distribution that accurately models these ?uctuations under all propagation conditions. The PDF of integrated irradiance fuctuations is calculated from numerical wave-optic simulations of a laser after propagating through atmospheric turbulence to investigate the evolution of the distribution as the aperture diameter is increased. The simulation data distribution is compared to theoretical gamma-gamma and lognormal PDF models under a variety of scintillation regimes from weak to very strong. Our results show that the gamma-gamma PDF provides a good fit to the simulated data distribution for all aperture sizes studied from weak through moderate scintillation. In strong scintillation, the gamma-gamma PDF is a better fit to the distribution for point-like apertures and the lognormal PDF is a better fit for apertures the size of the atmospheric spatial coherence radius ρ0 or larger. In addition, the PDF of received power from a Gaussian laser beam, which has been adaptively compensated at the transmitter before propagation to the receiver of a FSO link in the moderate scintillation regime is investigated. The complexity of the adaptive optics (AO) system is increased in order to investigate the changes in the distribution of the received power and how this affects the BER. For the 10 km link, due to the non-reciprocal nature of the propagation path the optimal beam to transmit is unknown. These results show that a low-order level of complexity in the AO provides a better estimate for the optimal beam to transmit than a higher order for non-reciprocal paths. For the 20 km link distance it was found that, although minimal, all AO complexity levels provided an equivalent improvement in BER and that no AO complexity provided the correction needed for the optimal beam to transmit. Finally, the temporal power spectral density of received power from a FSO communication link is investigated. Simulated and experimental results for the coherence time calculated from the temporal correlation function are presented. Results for both simulation and experimental data show that the coherence time increases as the receiving aperture diameter increases. For finite apertures the coherence time increases as the communication link distance is increased. We conjecture that this is due to the increasing speckle size within the pupil plane of the receiving aperture for an increasing link distance.

Estimating the mean and standard deviation of concentration distributions using censored samples

Environmental data sets of pollutant concentrations in air, water, and soil frequently include unquantified sample values reported only as being below the analytical method detection limit. These values, referred to as censored values, should be considered in the estimation of distribution parameters as each represents some value of pollutant concentration between zero and the detection limit. Most of the currently accepted methods for estimating the population parameters of environmental data sets containing censored values rely upon the assumption of an underlying normal (or transformed normal) distribution. This assumption can result in unacceptable levels of error in parameter estimation due to the unbounded left tail of the normal distribution. With the beta distribution, which is bounded by the same range of a distribution of concentrations, $\rm\lbrack0\le x\le1\rbrack,$ parameter estimation errors resulting from improper distribution bounds are avoided. This work developed a method that uses the beta distribution to estimate population parameters from censored environmental data sets and evaluated its performance in comparison to currently accepted methods that rely upon an underlying normal (or transformed normal) distribution. Data sets were generated assuming typical values encountered in environmental pollutant evaluation for mean, standard deviation, and number of variates. For each set of model values, data sets were generated assuming that the data was distributed either normally, lognormally, or according to a beta distribution. For varying levels of censoring, two established methods of parameter estimation, regression on normal ordered statistics, and regression on lognormal ordered statistics, were used to estimate the known mean and standard deviation of each data set. The method developed for this study, employing a beta distribution assumption, was also used to estimate parameters and the relative accuracy of all three methods were compared. For data sets of all three distribution types, and for censoring levels up to 50%, the performance of the new method equaled, if not exceeded, the performance of the two established methods. Because of its robustness in parameter estimation regardless of distribution type or censoring level, the method employing the beta distribution should be considered for full development in estimating parameters for censored environmental data sets. ^

Tree size and fecundity influence ballistic seed dispersal of two dominant mast-fruiting species in a tropical rain forest

Seed production, seed dispersal, and seedling recruitment are integral to forest dynamics, especially in masting species. Often these are studied separately, yet scarcely ever for species with ballistic dispersal even though this mode of dispersal is common in legume trees of tropical African rain forests. Here, we studied two dominant main-canopy tree species, Microberlinia bisulcata and Tetraberlinia bifoliolata (Caesalpinioideae), in 25 ha of primary rain forest at Korup, Cameroon, during two successive masting events (2007/2010). In the vicinity of c. 100 and 130 trees of each species, 476/580 traps caught dispersed seeds and beneath their crowns c. 57,000 pod valves per species were inspected to estimate tree-level fecundity. Seed production of trees increased non-linearly and asymptotically with increasing stem diameters. It was unequal within the two species’ populations, and differed strongly between years to foster both spatial and temporal patchiness in seed rain. The M. bisulcata trees could begin seeding at 42–44 cm diameter: at a much larger size than could T. bifoliolata (25 cm). Nevertheless, per capita life-time reproductive capacity was c. five times greater in M. bisulcata than T. bifoliolata owing to former’s larger adult stature, lower mortality rate (despite a shorter life-time) and smaller seed mass. The two species displayed strong differences in their dispersal capabilities. Inverse modelling (IM) revealed that dispersal of M. bisulcata was best described by a lognormal kernel. Most seeds landed at 10–15 m from stems, with 1% of them going beyond 80 m (<100 m). The direct estimates of fecundity significantly improved the models fitted. The lognormal also described well the seedling recruitment distribution of this species in 121 ground plots. By contrast, the lower intensity of masting and more limited dispersal of the heavier-seeded T. bifoliolata prevented reliable IM. For this species, seed density as function of distance to traps suggested a maximum dispersal distance of 40–50 m, and a correspondingly more aggregated seedling recruitment pattern ensued than for M. bisulcata. From this integrated field study, we conclude that the reproductive traits of M. bisulcata give it a considerable advantage over T. bifoliolata by better dispersing more seeds per capita to reach more suitable establishment sites, and combined with other key traits they explain its local dominance in the forest. Understanding the linkages between size at onset of maturity, individual fecundity, and dispersal capability can better inform the life-history strategies, and hence management, of co-occurring tree species in tropical forests.

Anticoagulation Management Practices and Outcomes in Elderly Patients with Acute Venous Thromboembolism: A Clinical Research Study.

Whether anticoagulation management practices are associated with improved outcomes in elderly patients with acute venous thromboembolism (VTE) is uncertain. Thus, we aimed to examine whether practices recommended by the American College of Chest Physicians guidelines are associated with outcomes in elderly patients with VTE. We studied 991 patients aged ≥65 years with acute VTE in a Swiss prospective multicenter cohort study and assessed the adherence to four management practices: parenteral anticoagulation ≥5 days, INR ≥2.0 for ≥24 hours before stopping parenteral anticoagulation, early start with vitamin K antagonists (VKA) ≤24 hours of VTE diagnosis, and the use of low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) or fondaparinux. The outcomes were all-cause mortality, VTE recurrence, and major bleeding at 6 months, and the length of hospital stay (LOS). We used Cox regression and lognormal survival models, adjusting for patient characteristics. Overall, 9% of patients died, 3% had VTE recurrence, and 7% major bleeding. Early start with VKA was associated with a lower risk of major bleeding (adjusted hazard ratio 0.37, 95% CI 0.20-0.71). Early start with VKA (adjusted time ratio [TR] 0.77, 95% CI 0.69-0.86) and use of LMWH/fondaparinux (adjusted TR 0.87, 95% CI 0.78-0.97) were associated with a shorter LOS. An INR ≥2.0 for ≥24 hours before stopping parenteral anticoagulants was associated with a longer LOS (adjusted TR 1.2, 95% CI 1.08-1.33). In elderly patients with VTE, the adherence to recommended anticoagulation management practices showed mixed results. In conclusion, only early start with VKA and use of parenteral LMWH/fondaparinux were associated with better outcomes.

Environmental correlates of species rank − abundance distributions in global drylands

Theoretical models predict lognormal species abundance distributions (SADs) in stable and productive environments, with log-series SADs in less stable, dispersal driven communities. We studied patterns of relative species abundances of perennial vascular plants in global dryland communities to: (i) assess the influence of climatic and soil characteristics on the observed SADs, (ii) infer how environmental variability influences relative abundances, and (iii) evaluate how colonisation dynamics and environmental filters shape abundance distributions. We fitted lognormal and log-series SADs to 91 sites containing at least 15 species of perennial vascular plants. The dependence of species relative abundances on soil and climate variables was assessed using general linear models. Irrespective of habitat type and latitude, the majority of the SADs (70.3%) were best described by a lognormal distribution. Lognormal SADs were associated with low annual precipitation, higher aridity, high soil carbon content, and higher variability of climate variables and soil nitrate. Our results do not corroborate models predicting the prevalence of log-series SADs in dryland communities. As lognormal SADs were particularly associated with sites with drier conditions and a higher environmental variability, we reject models linking lognormality to environmental stability and high productivity conditions. Instead our results point to the prevalence of lognormal SADs in heterogeneous environments, allowing for more evenly distributed plant communities, or in stressful ecosystems, which are generally shaped by strong habitat filters and limited colonisation. This suggests that drylands may be resilient to environmental changes because the many species with intermediate relative abundances could take over ecosystem functioning if the environment becomes suboptimal for dominant species.

Particle concentration and size distribution in the NGRIP ice core

A novel laser microparticle detector used in conjunction with continuous sample melting has provided a more than 1500 m long record of particle concentration and size distribution of the NGRIP ice core, covering continuously the period approximately from 9.5-100 kyr before present; measurements were at 1.65 m depth resolution, corresponding to approximately 35-200 yr. Particle concentration increased by a factor of 100 in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) compared to the Preboreal, and sharp variations of concentration occurred synchronously with rapid changes in the delta18O temperature proxy. The lognormal mode µ of the volume distribution shows clear systematic variations with smaller modes during warmer climates and coarser modes during colder periods. We find µ ~ 1.7 µm diameter during LGM and µ ~ 1.3 µm during the Preboreal. On timescales below several 100 years µ and the particle concentration exhibit a certain degree of independence present especially during warm periods, when µ generally is more variable. Using highly simplifying considerations for atmospheric transport and deposition of particles we infer that (1) the observed changes of µ in the ice largely reflect changes in the size of airborne particles above the ice sheet and (2) changes of µ are indicative of changes in long range atmospheric transport time. From the observed size changes we estimate shorter transit times by roughly 25% during LGM compared to the Preboreal. The associated particle concentration increase from more efficient long range transport is estimated to less than one order of magnitude.

Transverse drainages of the Susquehanna River basin, Pennsylvania, USA

While large-scale transverse drainages (TDs) such as those of the Susquehanna River above Harrisburg, PA, have been recognized since the 19th century, there have been no systematic surveys done of TDs since that of Ver Steeg's in 1930. Here, the results are presented of a topographic and statistical analysis of TDs in the Susquehanna River basin using Google Earth and associated overlays. 653 TDs were identified in the study area, 95% of which contain streams with discharges of less than 10 m3/s. TD depths ranged from a 23 m deep water gap near Blain, PA, to the 539 m deep gorge of the Juniata River through Jacks Mountain. Although TD depth tended to increase with stream size, many small streams were located in deep gaps, and eight streams with discharges of 10 m3/s or less were found in gorges whose depths matched or exceeded the deepest TD of the Susquehanna, the largest stream in the basin. Streams of less than 10 m3/s made up the majority of TDs regardless of the rock type capping the breached structure. Overall, TDs through sandstone-capped ridges were deeper than those topped by shales, and TDs in both sandstones and shales displayed a lognormal distribution of depths, which may be indicative of a preferred value. Stream flow direction was primarily perpendicular to local structural strike, with 47% of streams flowing NW and 53% flowing SE. 19% of the TDs were found to be in alignment with at least one other TD, with aligned segment lengths ranging from .5 to 14.8 km. The majority of TDs were in rocks of Paleozoic age. The techniques described here allow the frequency and distribution of TDs to be quantified so that they can be integrated into models of basin evolution.

On the Statistical Distribution of Object-Oriented System Properties

The statistical distributions of different software properties have been thoroughly studied in the past, including software size, complexity and the number of defects. In the case of object-oriented systems, these distributions have been found to obey a power law, a common statistical distribution also found in many other fields. However, we have found that for some statistical properties, the behavior does not entirely follow a power law, but a mixture between a lognormal and a power law distribution. Our study is based on the Qualitas Corpus, a large compendium of diverse Java-based software projects. We have measured the Chidamber and Kemerer metrics suite for every file of every Java project in the corpus. Our results show that the range of high values for the different metrics follows a power law distribution, whereas the rest of the range follows a lognormal distribution. This is a pattern typical of so-called double Pareto distributions, also found in empirical studies for other software properties.