Symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage after stroke thrombolysis: the SEDAN score.

OBJECTIVE: A study was undertaken to develop a score for assessing risk for symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH) in ischemic stroke patients treated with intravenous (IV) thrombolysis. METHODS: The derivation cohort comprised 974 ischemic stroke patients treated (1995-2008) with IV thrombolysis at the Helsinki University Central Hospital. The predictive value of parameters associated with sICH (European Cooperative Acute Stroke Study II) was evaluated, and we developed our score according to the magnitude of logistic regression coefficients. We calculated absolute risks and likelihood ratios of sICH per increasing score points. The score was validated in 828 patients from 3 Swiss cohorts (Lausanne, Basel, and Geneva). Performance of the score was tested with area under a receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). RESULTS: Our SEDAN score (0 to 6 points) comprises baseline blood Sugar (glucose; 8.1-12.0 mmol/l [145-216 mg/dl] = 1; >12.0 mmol/l [>216 mg/dl] = 2), Early infarct signs (yes = 1) and (hyper)Dense cerebral artery sign (yes = 1) on admission computed tomography scan, Age (>75 years = 1), and NIH Stroke Scale on admission (≥10 = 1). Absolute risk for sICH in the derivation cohort was: 1.4%, 2.9%, 8.5%, 12.2%, 21.7%, and 33.3% for 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 score points, respectively. In the validation cohort, absolute risks were similar (1.0%, 3.5%, 5.1%, 9.2%, 16.9%, and 27.8%, respectively). AUC-ROC was 0.77 (0.71-0.83; p < 0.001). INTERPRETATION: Our SEDAN score reliably assessed risk for sICH in IV thrombolysis-treated patients with anterior- and posterior circulation ischemic stroke, and it can support clinical decision making in high-risk patients. External validation of the score supports its generalization.

Extent of Hypoattenuation On CT Angiography Source Images In Basilar Artery Occlusion: Prognostic Accuracy Of Posterior Circulation ASPECTS And The Pons-midbrain Score In The Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study

Background: The posterior circulation Acute Stroke Prognosis Early CT Score (pc-ASPECTS) and the combined Pons-midbrain score quantify the extent of early ischemic changes in the posterior circulation. We compared the prognostic accuracy of both scores if applied to CT angiography (CTA) source images (CTA-SI) of patients in the Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study (BASICS).Methods: BASICS was a prospective, observational, multi-centre, registry of consecutive patients who presented with acute symptomatic basilar artery occlusion (BAO). Functional outcome was assessed at 1 month. We applied pc-ASPECTS and the combined Pons-midbrain score to CTA-SI by 3-reader-consensus. Readers were blinded to clinical data. We performed multivariable logistic regression analysis, adjusting for thrombolysis, baseline NIHSS score and age, and used the output to derive ROC curves to compare the ability of both scores to discriminate patients with favourable (modified Rankin Scale [mRS] scores 0-3) from patients with unfavourable (mRS scores 4-6) functional outcome.Results: We reviewed CTAs of 158 patients (64% men, mean age 65 _ 15 years, median NIHSS score 25 [0-38], median GCS score 7 [3-15], median onset-to-CTA time 234 minutes [11-7380]). At 1 month, 40 (25%) patients had a favourable outcome, 49 (31%) had an unfavourable outcome (mRS score 4-5) and 69 (44%) were deceased. Both techniques of assessing CTA-SI hypoattenuation in the posterior circulation showed equally good discriminative value in predicting final outcome (C-statistics; area under ROC curve 0.74 versus 0.75, respectively; p_0.37). Pc-ASPECTS dichotomized at _6 versus _6 was an independent predictor of favourable functional outcome (RR _ 2.2; CI95 1.1-4.7; p _ 0.034).Conclusion: Compared to the combined Pons-midbrain score, the pc-ASPECTS score has similar prognostic accuracy to identify patients with a favourable functional outcome in BASICS. Dichotomized pc-ASPECTS (_6 versus _6) is an independent predictor of favourable functional outcome in this population. Author Disclosures: V. Puetz: None. A. Khomenko: None. M.D. Hill: None. I. Dzialowski: None. P. Michel: None. C. Weimar: None. C.A.C. Wijman: None. H. Mattle: None. K. Muir: None. T. Pfefferkorn: None. D. Tanne: None. S. Engelter: None. K. Szabo: None. A. Algra: None. A.M. Demchuk: None. W.J. Schonewille: None.

Determinants of generic drug substitution in Switzerland.

Background: Since generic drugs have the same therapeutic effect as the original formulation but at generally lower costs, their use should be more heavily promoted. However, a considerable number of barriers to their wider use have been observed in many countries. The present study examines the influence of patients, physicians and certain characteristics of the generics' market on generic substitution in Switzerland.Methods: We used reimbursement claims' data submitted to a large health insurer by insured individuals living in one of Switzerland's three linguistic regions during 2003. All dispensed drugs studied here were substitutable. The outcome (use of a generic or not) was modelled by logistic regression, adjusted for patients' characteristics (gender, age, treatment complexity, substitution groups) and with several variables describing reimbursement incentives (deductible, co-payments) and the generics' market (prices, packaging, co-branded original, number of available generics, etc.).Results: The overall generics' substitution rate for 173,212 dispensed prescriptions was 31%, though this varied considerably across cantons. Poor health status (older patients, complex treatments) was associated with lower generic use. Higher rates were associated with higher out-of-pocket costs, greater price differences between the original and the generic, and with the number of generics on the market, while reformulation and repackaging were associated with lower rates. The substitution rate was 13% lower among hospital physicians. The adoption of the prescribing practices of the canton with the highest substitution rate would increase substitution in other cantons to as much as 26%.Conclusions: Patient health status explained a part of the reluctance to substitute an original formulation by a generic. Economic incentives were efficient, but with a moderate global effect. The huge interregional differences indicated that prescribing behaviours and beliefs are probably the main determinant of generic substitution.

Reducing the learning curve for the treatment of morphoeic (sclerosing) basal cell carcinoma of the face.

The treatment of morphoeic (or sclerosing) basal cell carcinoma (mBCC) of the face is associated with high rates of incomplete excision and recurrence. A principal risk factor for incomplete resection is the grade of surgeon. We did a prospective, randomised study of 40 consecutive patients with mBCC of the face. The extent of the tumour was assessed under standard conditions by consultant surgeons and compared with assessments by resident surgeons with the help of the Varioscope, a combination of microscope and loupe glasses with strong illumination and a maximal magnification of 7x. The data from a former retrospective study of all excisions of mBCC of the face during a five-year period at the hospital served as control. Residents with the support of the Varioscope achieved a rate of incomplete excisions similar to that of consultants under standard conditions. There was a significant reduction of the rate of incomplete resections by resident surgeons thanks to high magnification and good lighting (p=0.02). High magnification and good lighting were useful in learning how to recognise skin changes associated with mBCC of the face and achieving a low rate of incomplete excisions.

Ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients with chest pain : a clinical prediction score

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Chest pain raises concern for the possibility of coronary heart disease. Scoring methods have been developed to identify coronary heart disease in emergency settings, but not in primary care. METHODS: Data were collected from a multicenter Swiss clinical cohort study including 672 consecutive patients with chest pain, who had visited one of 59 family practitioners' offices. Using delayed diagnosis we derived a prediction rule to rule out coronary heart disease by means of a logistic regression model. Known cardiovascular risk factors, pain characteristics, and physical signs associated with coronary heart disease were explored to develop a clinical score. Patients diagnosed with angina or acute myocardial infarction within the year following their initial visit comprised the coronary heart disease group. RESULTS: The coronary heart disease score was derived from eight variables: age, gender, duration of chest pain from 1 to 60 minutes, substernal chest pain location, pain increases with exertion, absence of tenderness point at palpation, cardiovascular risks factors, and personal history of cardiovascular disease. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was of 0.95 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.92; 0.97. From this score, 413 patients were considered as low risk for values of percentile 5 of the coronary heart disease patients. Internal validity was confirmed by bootstrapping. External validation using data from a German cohort (Marburg, n = 774) revealed a receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.72; 0.81) with a sensitivity of 85.6% and a specificity of 47.2%. CONCLUSIONS: This score, based only on history and physical examination, is a complementary tool for ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients complaining of chest pain.

Binary classification of dyslipidemia from the waist-to-hip ratio and body mass index: a comparison of linear, logistic, and CART models.

BACKGROUND: We sought to improve upon previously published statistical modeling strategies for binary classification of dyslipidemia for general population screening purposes based on the waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index anthropometric measurements. METHODS: Study subjects were participants in WHO-MONICA population-based surveys conducted in two Swiss regions. Outcome variables were based on the total serum cholesterol to high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio. The other potential predictor variables were gender, age, current cigarette smoking, and hypertension. The models investigated were: (i) linear regression; (ii) logistic classification; (iii) regression trees; (iv) classification trees (iii and iv are collectively known as "CART"). Binary classification performance of the region-specific models was externally validated by classifying the subjects from the other region. RESULTS: Waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index remained modest predictors of dyslipidemia. Correct classification rates for all models were 60-80%, with marked gender differences. Gender-specific models provided only small gains in classification. The external validations provided assurance about the stability of the models. CONCLUSIONS: There were no striking differences between either the algebraic (i, ii) vs. non-algebraic (iii, iv), or the regression (i, iii) vs. classification (ii, iv) modeling approaches. Anticipated advantages of the CART vs. simple additive linear and logistic models were less than expected in this particular application with a relatively small set of predictor variables. CART models may be more useful when considering main effects and interactions between larger sets of predictor variables.

Validation of Logistic Regression Models for Landslide Susceptibility Maps

A wide range of numerical models and tools have been developed over the last decades to support the decision making process in environmental applications, ranging from physical models to a variety of statistically-based methods. In this study, a landslide susceptibility map of a part of Three Gorges Reservoir region of China was produced, employing binary logistic regression analyses. The available information includes the digital elevation model of the region, geological map and different GIS layers including land cover data obtained from satellite imagery. The landslides were observed and documented during the field studies. The validation analysis is exploited to investigate the quality of mapping.

Predicting outcome after acute basilar artery occlusion based on admission characteristics.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a simple prognostic model to predict outcome at 1 month after acute basilar artery occlusion (BAO) with readily available predictors. METHODS: The Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study (BASICS) is a prospective, observational, international registry of consecutive patients who presented with an acute symptomatic and radiologically confirmed BAO. We considered predictors available at hospital admission in multivariable logistic regression models to predict poor outcome (modified Rankin Scale [mRS] score 4-5 or death) at 1 month. We used receiver operator characteristic curves to assess the discriminatory performance of the models. RESULTS: Of the 619 patients, 429 (69%) had a poor outcome at 1 month: 74 (12%) had a mRS score of 4, 115 (19%) had a mRS score of 5, and 240 (39%) had died. The main predictors of poor outcome were older age, absence of hyperlipidemia, presence of prodromal minor stroke, higher NIH Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score, and longer time to treatment. A prognostic model that combined demographic data and stroke risk factors had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.64. This performance improved by including findings from the neurologic examination (AUC 0.79) and CT imaging (AUC 0.80). A risk chart showed predictions of poor outcome at 1 month varying from 25 to 96%. CONCLUSION: Poor outcome after BAO can be reliably predicted by a simple model that includes older age, absence of hyperlipidemia, presence of prodromal minor stroke, higher NIHSS score, and longer time to treatment.

Predicting random level and seasonality of hotel prices. A structural equation growth curve approach

This article examines the effect on price of different characteristics of holiday hotels in the sun-and-beach segment, under the hedonic function perspective. Monthly prices of the majority of hotels in the Spanish continental Mediterranean coast are gathered from May to October 1999 from the tour operator catalogues. Hedonic functions are specified as random-effect models and parametrized as structural equation models with two latent variables, a random peak season price and a random width of seasonal fluctuations. Characteristics of the hotel and the region where they are located are used as predictors of both latent variables. Besides hotel category, region, distance to the beach, availability of parking place and room equipment have an effect on peak price and also on seasonality. 3- star hotels have the highest seasonality and hotels located in the southern regions the lowest, which could be explained by a warmer climate in autumn

Diagnostic accuracy of the Eurotest for dementia: a naturalistic, multicenter phase II study

BACKGROUND Available screening tests for dementia are of limited usefulness because they are influenced by the patient's culture and educational level. The Eurotest, an instrument based on the knowledge and handling of money, was designed to overcome these limitations. The objective of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of the Eurotest in identifying dementia in customary clinical practice. METHODS A cross-sectional, multi-center, naturalistic phase II study was conducted. The Eurotest was administered to consecutive patients, older than 60 years, in general neurology clinics. The patients' condition was classified as dementia or no dementia according to DSM-IV diagnostic criteria. We calculated sensitivity (Sn), specificity (Sp) and area under the ROC curves (aROC) with 95% confidence intervals. The influence of social and educational factors on scores was evaluated with multiple linear regression analysis, and the influence of these factors on diagnostic accuracy was evaluated with logistic regression. RESULTS Sixteen neurologists recruited a total of 516 participants: 101 with dementia, 380 without dementia, and 35 who were excluded. Of the 481 participants who took the Eurotest, 38.7% were totally or functionally illiterate and 45.5% had received no formal education. Mean time needed to administer the test was 8.2+/-2.0 minutes. The best cut-off point was 20/21, with Sn = 0.91 (0.84-0.96), Sp = 0.82 (0.77-0.85), and aROC = 0.93 (0.91-0.95). Neither the scores on the Eurotest nor its diagnostic accuracy were influenced by social or educational factors. CONCLUSION This naturalistic and pragmatic study shows that the Eurotest is a rapid, simple and useful screening instrument, which is free from educational influences, and has appropriate internal and external validity.

Detection of suspected placental invasion by MRI: Do the results depend on observer' experience?

PURPOSE: To evaluate the diagnostic value of previously described MR features used for detecting suspected placental invasion according to observers' experience. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Our population included 25 pregnant women (mean age 35.16) investigated by prenatal MRI (1.5T, T1- and T2-weighted MR-sequences without i.v. contrast), among them 12 with histopathologically proven placental invasion and 13 women (52%) without placental invasion used as control group. Two senior and two junior radiologists blindly and independently reviewed MR-examinations in view of 6 previously defined MR-features indicating presence and degree of placental invasion (placenta increta, accreta or percreta). For each reader the sensibility, specificity, and receiver operating curve (ROC) were calculated. Interobserver agreements between senior and junior readers were determined. Stepwise logistic regression was performed including the 6 MR-features predictive of placental invasion. RESULTS: Demographics between both groups were statistically equivalent. Overall sensitivity and specificity for placental invasion was 90.9% and 75.0% for seniors and 81.8% and 61.8% for juniors, respectively. The best single MR-feature indicating placental invasion was T2-hypointense placental bands (r(2)=0.28), followed by focally interrupted myometrial border, infiltration of pelvic organs and tenting of the bladder (r(2)=0.36). Interobserver agreement for detecting placental invasion was 0.64 for seniors and 0.41 for juniors, thus substantial and moderate, respectively. Seniors detected placental invasion and depth of infiltration with significantly higher diagnostic certitude than juniors (p=0.0002 and p=0.0282, respectively). CONCLUSION: MRI can be a reliable and reproducible tool for the detection of suspected placental invasion, but the diagnostic value significantly depends on observers' experience.

Acute imaging does not improve ASTRAL score's accuracy despite having a prognostic value.

BACKGROUND: The ASTRAL score was recently shown to reliably predict three-month functional outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke. AIM: The study aims to investigate whether information from multimodal imaging increases ASTRAL score's accuracy. METHODS: All patients registered in the ASTRAL registry until March 2011 were included. In multivariate logistic-regression analyses, we added covariates derived from parenchymal, vascular, and perfusion imaging to the 6-parameter model of the ASTRAL score. If a specific imaging covariate remained an independent predictor of three-month modified Rankin score > 2, the area-under-the-curve (AUC) of this new model was calculated and compared with ASTRAL score's AUC. We also performed similar logistic regression analyses in arbitrarily chosen patient subgroups. RESULTS: When added to the ASTRAL score, the following covariates on admission computed tomography/magnetic resonance imaging-based multimodal imaging were not significant predictors of outcome: any stroke-related acute lesion, any nonstroke-related lesions, chronic/subacute stroke, leukoaraiosis, significant arterial pathology in ischemic territory on computed tomography angiography/magnetic resonance angiography/Doppler, significant intracranial arterial pathology in ischemic territory, and focal hypoperfusion on perfusion-computed tomography. The Alberta Stroke Program Early CT score on plain imaging and any significant extracranial arterial pathology on computed tomography angiography/magnetic resonance angiography/Doppler were independent predictors of outcome (odds ratio: 0·93, 95% CI: 0·87-0·99 and odds ratio: 1·49, 95% CI: 1·08-2·05, respectively) but did not increase ASTRAL score's AUC (0·849 vs. 0·850, and 0·8563 vs. 0·8564, respectively). In exploratory analyses in subgroups of different prognosis, age or stroke severity, no covariate was found to increase ASTRAL score's AUC, either. CONCLUSIONS: The addition of information derived from multimodal imaging does not increase ASTRAL score's accuracy to predict functional outcome despite having an independent prognostic value. More selected radiological parameters applied in specific subgroups of stroke patients may add prognostic value of multimodal imaging.

Constraints on the upper Permian to upper Triassic marine carbon isotope curve : case studies from the Tethys

Secular variations of the seawater carbon isotopic composition provide evidence for paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic changes and may serve for chemiostratigraphic correlations. The present study aimed to improve the current knowledge on the Upper Permian and Triassic segment of the Phanerozoic marine carbon isotope curve, whose Triassic part was poorly constrained by previous studies. Profiles of inorganic carbon isotopes are provided for sections from Himalaya (Salt Range, Kashmir, Spiti and Nepal), Oman and North Dobrogea (Romania) on the basis of whole-rock carbonate analysis. The data acquired, together with a literature compilation confirmed that most of the Upper Permian is characterized by high δ13C values (averaging +40/00) but failed to detect a positive excursion as suggested by recent compilations. In the light of these observations, the large drop in δ13C values associated with the end-Permian mass extinction appears to be driven by a sudden transfer of previously stocked 13C depleted carbon, rather than by the overturn of a Late Permian stratified ocean. The Triassic data-set outlines significant secular variations. The best documented is a carbon isotope positive excursion just across the Lower-Middle Triassic boundary, globally developed since it was detected in various paleogeographic settings. It is interpreted to reflect variations in surface ocean chemistry, possibly related to increased primary productivity, at times when the biotic recovery after the end-Permian mass-extinction began to accelerate significantly and when a sharp rise in seawater δ34S values occurred globally. Strontium isotope data obtained from well preserved biogenic phosphates allow a refinement of the Middle Triassic segment of the seawater strontium isotope curve and show a major inflexion point of the seawater strontium isotope curve also near the Lower Triassic - Middle Triassic boundary. These facts suggest that the transition from the Early to the Middle Triassic was a time of revolutionary global change which represented an important step in the evolution of Mesozoic marine environments. A tentative carbon isotope curve for the Upper Permian to Upper Triassic time interval is proposed. Its major features are: ? high but constant δ13C values during the Late Permian ? a sharp drop in δ13C values in the latest Permian ? subsequent recovery of δ13C values ? a short-lived positive excursion across the Early-Middle Triassic boundary ? a gradual rise in δ13C values starting in the Late Ladinian or in the Early Carnian It is foreseen that these fluctuations of the carbon isotope curve may serve as chronostratigraphic markers and further assist in the correlation of Permian and Triassic carbonate deposits.

Undertreatment of acute pain (oligoanalgesia) and medical practice variation in prehospital analgesia of adult trauma patients: a 10 yr retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Prehospital oligoanalgesia is prevalent among trauma victims, even when the emergency medical services team includes a physician. We investigated if not only patients' characteristics but physicians' practice variations contributed to prehospital oligoanalgesia. METHODS: Patient records of conscious adult trauma victims transported by our air rescue helicopter service over 10 yr were reviewed retrospectively. Oligoanalgesia was defined as a numeric rating scale (NRS) >3 at hospital admission. Multilevel logistic regression analysis was used to predict oligoanalgesia, accounting first for patient case-mix, and then physician-level clustering. The intraclass correlation was expressed as the median odds ratio (MOR). RESULTS: A total of 1202 patients and 77 physicians were included in the study. NRS at the scene was 6.9 (1.9). The prevalence of oligoanalgesia was 43%. Physicians had a median of 5.7 yr (inter-quartile range: 4.2-7.5) of post-graduate training and 27% were female. In our multilevel analysis, significant predictors of oligoanalgesia were: no analgesia [odds ratio (OR) 8.8], National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics V on site (OR 4.4), NRS on site (OR 1.5 per additional NRS unit >4), female physician (OR 2.0), and years of post-graduate experience [>4.0 to ≤5.0 (OR 1.3), >3.0 to ≤4.0 (OR 1.6), >2.0 to ≤3.0 (OR 2.6), and ≤2.0 yr (OR 16.7)]. The MOR was 2.6, and was statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Physicians' practice variations contributed to oligoanalgesia, a factor often overlooked in analyses of prehospital pain management. Further exploration of the sources of these variations may provide innovative targets for quality improvement programmes to achieve consistent pain relief for trauma victims.