Greenhouse Gas and Nitrogen Fertilizer Scenarios for U.S. Agriculture and Global Biofuels, June 2011

This analysis uses the 2011 FAPRI-CARD (Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute–Center for Agricultural and Rural Development) baseline to evaluate the impact of four alternative scenarios on U.S. and world agricultural markets, as well as on world fertilizer use and world agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. A key assumption in the 2011 baseline is that ethanol support policies disappear in 2012. The baseline also assumes that existing biofuel mandates remain in place and are binding. Two of the scenarios are adverse supply shocks, the first being a 10% increase in the price of nitrogen fertilizer in the United States, and the second, a reversion of cropland into forestland. The third scenario examines how lower energy prices would impact world agriculture. The fourth scenario reintroduces biofuel tax credits and duties. Given that the baseline excludes these policies, the fourth scenario is an attempt to understand the impact of these policies under the market conditions that prevail in early 2011. A key to understanding the results of this fourth scenario is that in the absence of tax credits and duties, the mandate drives biofuel use. Therefore, when the tax credits and duties are reintroduced, the impacts are relatively small. In general, the results show that the entire international commodity market system is remarkably robust with respect to policy changes in one country or in one sector. The policy implication is that domestic policy changes implemented by a large agricultural producer like the United States can have fairly significant impacts on the aggregate world commodity markets. A second point that emerges from the results is that the law of unintended consequences is at work in world agriculture. For example, a U.S. nitrogen tax that might presumably be motivated for environmental benefit results in an increase in world greenhouse gas emissions. A similar situation occurs in the afforestation scenario in which crop production shifts from high-yielding land in the United States to low-yielding land and probably native vegetation in the rest of the world, resulting in an unintended increase in global greenhouse gas emissions.

The importance of environmental exposures to physical, mental and social well-being

"Health is a state of complete physical, mental and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity" states the WHO. However, the current focus in this important area seems to be on reducing diseases, while less attention is paid on aspects how to increase the well-being of populations. This paper reviews three examples where well-being has drawn attention of the public and policy makers, and compares the policies of two wealthy countries. The first example is noise. Noise can reduce sleep quality and cause physiological, mental, and social effects. In Switzerland, noise receives a lot of attention by the public. Swiss laws are extensive, e.g., they prohibit trucks and planes from traveling at night. In the USA, there is little public attention and no national strategy against environmental noise. The second example is aesthetics and recreation. Many humans seek contact with the beauty of nature. The USA and Switzerland have similar strategies for achieving clear waters, while the protection of scenic views is approached very differently. Lifestyle is the last example. In the USA, the desire for individual freedom is a leading cause for suburban sprawl, a car-dependent sedentary lifestyle resulting in obesity, asthma and loss of community spirit. In Switzerland, a strict land use planning seeks to balance individual and public interests and stresses public transportation, which seems to be a more promising approach. Paying attention to aspects of well-being while developing political strategies might be a promising model to tackle environmental problems. Successful strategies employed so far seem to include the public, local authorities, politicians and scientists in this process, which might have been a key for their success. [Authors]

Comparison and validation of tissue modelization and statistical classification methods in T1-weighted MR brain images.

This paper presents a validation study on statistical nonsupervised brain tissue classification techniques in magnetic resonance (MR) images. Several image models assuming different hypotheses regarding the intensity distribution model, the spatial model and the number of classes are assessed. The methods are tested on simulated data for which the classification ground truth is known. Different noise and intensity nonuniformities are added to simulate real imaging conditions. No enhancement of the image quality is considered either before or during the classification process. This way, the accuracy of the methods and their robustness against image artifacts are tested. Classification is also performed on real data where a quantitative validation compares the methods' results with an estimated ground truth from manual segmentations by experts. Validity of the various classification methods in the labeling of the image as well as in the tissue volume is estimated with different local and global measures. Results demonstrate that methods relying on both intensity and spatial information are more robust to noise and field inhomogeneities. We also demonstrate that partial volume is not perfectly modeled, even though methods that account for mixture classes outperform methods that only consider pure Gaussian classes. Finally, we show that simulated data results can also be extended to real data.

Timing and nature of alluvial fan and strath terrace formation in the Eastern Precordillera of Argentina

Sixty-eight 10Be terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide (TCN) surface exposure ages are presented to define the timing of alluvial fan and strath terrace formation in the hyper-arid San Juan region of the Argentine Precordillera. This region is tectonically active, and numerous fault scarps traverse Quaternary landforms. The three study sites, Marquesado strath complex, Loma Negra alluvial fan and Carpintería strath complex reveal a history of alluvial fan and strath terrace development over the past w225 ka. The Marquesado complex Q3m surface dates to w17 3 ka, whereas the Loma Negra Q1ln, Q2ln, Q3ln, Q4ln, and Q5ln surfaces date to w24 3 ka, w48 2 ka, w65 13 ka, w105 21 ka, and w181 29 ka, respectively. The Carpintería complex comprises eight surfaces that have been dated and include the Q1c (w23 3 ka), Q2c (w5 5 ka), Q3ac (w25 12 ka), Q3bc (w29 15 ka), Q4c (w61 12 ka), Q5c (w98 18 ka), Q6c (w93 18 ka), and Q7c (w212 37 ka). 10Be TCN depth profile data for the Loma Negra alluvial fan complex and Carpintería strath terrace complex, as well as OSL ages on some Carpintería deposits, aid in refining surface ages for comparison with local and global climate proxies, and additionally offer insights into inheritance and erosion rate values for TCNs (w10 104 10Be atoms/g of SiO2 and w5 m Ma 1, respectively). Comparison with other alluvial fan studies in the region show that less dynamic and older preserved surfaces occur in the Carpintería and Loma Negra areas with only younger alluvial fan surfaces preserved both to the north and south. These data in combination with that of other studies illustrate broad regional agreement between alluvial fan and strath terrace ages, which suggests that climate is the dominant forcing agent in the timing of terrace formation in this region.

Characterization of local and systemic immune-modulation in melanoma patients

Le mélanome cutané est un des cancers les plus agressifs et dont l'incidence augmente le plus en Suisse. Une fois métastatique, le pronostic de survie moyenne avec les thérapies actuelles est d'environ huit mois, avec moins de 5% de survie à cinq ans. Les récents progrès effectués dans la compréhension de la biologie de la cellule tumorale mais surtout dans l'importance du système immunitaire dans le contrôle de ce cancer ont permis le développement de nouveaux traitements novateurs et prometteurs. Ces thérapies, appelées immunothérapies, reposent sur la stimulation et l'augmentation de la réponse immunitaire à la tumeur. Alors que les derniers essais cliniques ont démontré l'efficacité de ces traitements chez les patients avec des stades avancés de la maladie, le contrôle de la maladie à long- terme est seulement atteint chez une minorité des patients. La suppression locale et systémique de la réponse immunitaire spécifique anti-tumorale apparaitrait comme une des raisons expliquant la persistance d'un mauvais pronostic clinique chez ces patients. Des études sur les souris ont montré que les vaisseaux lymphatiques joueraient un rôle primordial dans ce processus en induisant une tolérance immune, ce qui permettrait à la tumeur d'échapper au contrôle du système immunitaire et métastatiser plus facilement. Ces excitantes découvertes n'ont pas encore été établi et prouvé chez l'homme. Dans cette thèse, nous montrons pour la première fois que les vaisseaux lymphatiques sont directement impliqués dans la modulation de la réponse immunitaire au niveau local et systémique dans le mélanome chez l'homme. Ces récentes découvertes montrent le potentiel de combiner des thérapies visant le système lymphatique avec les immunothérapies actuellement utilisées afin d'améliorer le pronostic des patients atteint du mélanome. -- Cutaneous melanoma is one of the most invasive and metastatic human cancers and causes 75% of skin cancer mortality. Current therapies such as surgery and chemotherapy fail to control metastatic disease, and relapse occurs frequently due to microscopic residual lesions. It is, thus, essential to develop and optimize novel therapeutic strategies to improve curative responses in these patients. In recent decades, tumor immunologists have revealed the development of spontaneous adaptive immune responses in melanoma patients, leading to the accumulation of highly differentiated tumor-specific T cells at the tumor site. This remains one of the most powerful prognostic markers to date. Immunotherapies that augment the natural function of these tumor-specific T cells have since emerged as highly attractive therapeutic approaches to eliminate melanoma cells. While recent clinical trials have demonstrated great progress in the treatment of advanced stage melanoma, long-term disease control is still only achieved in a minority of patients. Local and systemic immune suppression by the tumor appears to be responsible, in part, for this poor clinical evolution. These facts underscore the need for a better analysis and characterization of immune- related pathways within the tumor microenvironment (TME), as well as at the systemic level. The overall goal of this thesis is, thus, to obtain greater insight into the complexity and heterogeneity of the TME in human melanoma, as well as to investigate immune modulation beyond the TME, which ultimately influences the immune system throughout the whole body. To achieve this, we established two main objectives: to precisely characterize local and systemic immune modulation (i) in untreated melanoma patients and (ii) in patients undergoing peptide vaccination or checkpoint blockade therapy with anti-cytotoxic T- lymphocyte-asisctaed protein-4 (CTLA-4) antibody. In the first and main part of this thesis, we analyzed lymphatic vessels in relation to anti-tumor immune responses in tissues from vaccinated patients using a combination of immunohistochemistry (IHC) techniques, whole slide scanning/analysis, and an automatic quantification system. Strikingly, we found that increased lymphatic vessel density was associated with high expression of immune suppressive molecules, low functionality of tumor-infiltrating CD8+ T cells and decreased cytokine production by tumor-antigen specific CD8+ T cells in the blood. These data revealed a previously unappreciated local and systemic role of lymphangiogenesis in modulating T cell responses in human cancer and support the use of therapies that target lymphatic vessels combined with existing and future T cell based therapies. In the second objective, we describe a metastatic melanoma patient who developed pulmonary sarcoid-like granulomatosis following repetitive vaccination with peptides and CpG. We demonstrated that the onset of this pulmonary autoimmune adverse event was related to the development of a strong and long-lasting tumor-specific CD8+ T cell response. This constitutes the first demonstration that a new generation tumor vaccine can induce the development of autoimmune adverse events. In the third objective, we assessed the use of Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) imaging to identify melanoma cells and lymphocyte subpopulations in lymph node (LN) metastasis tissues, thanks to a fruitful collaboration with researchers in Brussels. We demonstrated that the different cell types in metastatic LNs have different infrared spectral features allowing automated identification of these cells. This technic is therefore capable of distinguishing known and novel biological features in human tissues and has, therefore, significant potential as a tool for histopathological diagnosis and biomarker assessment. Finally, in the fourth objective, we investigated the role of colony- stimulating factor-1 (CSF-1) in modulating the anti-tumor response in ipilimumab-treated patients using IHC and in vitro co-cultures, revealing that melanoma cells produce CSF-1 via CTL-derived cytokines when attacked by cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs), resulting in the recruitment of immunosuppressive monocytes. These findings support the combined use of CSF-1R blockade with T cell based immunotherapy for melanoma patients. Taken together, our results reveal the existence of novel mechanisms of immune modulation and thus promote the optimization of combination immunotherapies against melanoma. -- Le mélanome cutané est un des cancers humains les plus invasifs et métastatiques et est responsable de 75% de la mortalité liée aux cancers de la peau. Les thérapies comme la chirurgie et la chimiothérapie ont échoué à contrôler le mélanome métastatique, par ailleurs les rechutes sous ces traitements ont été montrées fréquentes. Il est donc essentiel de développer et d'optimiser de nouvelles stratégies thérapeutiques pour améliorer les réponses thérapeutiques de ces patients. Durant les dernières décennies, les immunologistes spécialisés dans les tumeurs ont démontré qu'un patient atteint du mélanome pouvait développer spontanément une réponse immune adaptative à sa tumeur et que l'accumulation de cellules T spécifiques tumorales au sein même de la tumeur était un des plus puissants facteurs pronostiques. Les immunothérapies qui ont pour but d'augmenter les fonctions naturelles de ces cellules T spécifiques tumorales ont donc émergé comme des approches thérapeutiques très attractives pour éliminer les cellules du mélanome. Alors que les derniers essais cliniques ont démontré un progrès important dans le traitement des formes avancées du mélanome, le contrôle de la maladie à long-terme est seulement atteint chez une minorité des patients. La suppression immune locale et systémique apparaitrait comme une des raisons expliquant la persistance d'un mauvais pronostic clinique chez ces patients. Ces considérations soulignent la nécessité de mieux analyser et caractériser les voies immunitaires non seulement au niveau local dans le microenvironement tumoral mais aussi au niveau systémique dans le sang des patients. Le but de cette thèse est d'obtenir une plus grande connaissance de la complexité et de l'hétérogénéité du microenvironement tumoral dans les mélanomes mais aussi d'investiguer la modulation immunitaire au delà du microenvironement tumoral au niveau systémique. Afin d'atteindre ce but, nous avons établi deux objectifs principaux : caractériser précisément la modulation locale et systémique du système immunitaire (i) chez les patients atteints du mélanome qui n'ont pas reçu de traitement et (ii) chez les patients qui ont été traités soit par des vaccins soit par des thérapies qui bloquent les points de contrôles. Dans la première et majeure partie de cette thèse, nous avons analysé les vaisseaux lymphatiques en relation avec la réponse immunitaire anti-tumorale dans les tissus des patients vaccinés grâce à des techniques d'immunohistochimie et de quantification informatisé et automatique des marquages. Nous avons trouvé qu'une densité élevée de vaisseaux lymphatiques dans la tumeur était associée à une plus grande expression de molécules immunosuppressives ainsi qu'à une diminution de la fonctionnalité des cellules T spécifiques tumoral dans la tumeur et dans le sang des patients. Ces résultats révèlent un rôle jusqu'à là inconnu des vaisseaux lymphatiques dans la modulation directe du système immunitaire au niveau local et systémique dans les cancers de l'homme. Cette recherche apporte finalement des preuves du potentiel de combiner des thérapies visant le système lymphatique avec des autres immunothérapies déjà utilisées en clinique. Dans le second objectif, nous rapportons le cas d'un patient atteint d'un mélanome avec de multiples métastases qui a développé à la suite de plusieurs vaccinations répétées et consécutives avec des peptides et du CpG, un évènement indésirable sous la forme d'une granulomatose pulmonaire sarcoid-like. Nous avons démontré que l'apparition de cet évènement était intimement liée au développement d'une réponse immunitaire durable et spécifique contre les antigènes de la tumeur. Par là- même, nous prouvons pour la première fois que la nouvelle génération de vaccins est aussi capable d'induire des effets indésirables auto-immuns. Pour le troisième objectif, nous avons voulu savoir si l'utilisation de la spectroscopie infrarouge à transformée de Fourier (IRTF) était capable d'identifier les cellules du mélanome ainsi que les différents sous-types cellulaires dans les ganglions métastatiques. Grâce à nos collaborateurs de Bruxelles, nous avons pu établir que les diverses composantes cellulaires des ganglions atteints par des métastases du mélanome présentaient des spectres infrarouges différents et qu'elles pouvaient être identifiées d'une façon automatique. Cette nouvelle technique permettrait donc de distinguer des caractéristiques biologiques connues ou nouvelles dans les tissus humains qui auraient des retombées pratiques importantes dans le diagnostic histopathologique et dans l'évaluation des biomarqueurs. Finalement dans le dernier objectif, nous avons investigué le rôle du facteur de stimulation des colonies (CSF-1) dans la modulation de la réponse immunitaire anti-tumorale chez les patients qui ont été traités par l'Ipilimumab. Nos expériences in vivo au niveau des tissus tumoraux et nos co-cultures in vitro nous ont permis de démontrer que les cytokines secrétées par les cellules T spécifiques anti-tumorales induisaient la sécrétion de CSF-1 dans les cellules du mélanome ce qui résultait en un recrutement de monocytes immunosuppresseurs. Dans son ensemble, cette thèse révèle donc l'existence de nouveaux mécanismes de modulation de la réponse immunitaire anti-tumorale et propose de nouvelles optimisations de combinaison d'immunothérapies contre le mélanome.

The demand for global student talent: Capitalizing on the value of university-industry collaboration

The university sector in Europe has invested money and effort into the internationalization of higher education. The benefits of internationalizing higher education are fuelled by changing global values, choices and practices. However, arguments that serve the internationalization of higher education tend to stress either local organizational or individual interests; seldom do they emphasize the societal benefits. This dissertation investigates how collaboration between university and industry facilitates a shift in thinking about attracting and retaining global student talent, in terms of co-creating solutions to benefit the development of our knowledge society. The macro-structures of the higher education sector have the tendency to overemphasize quantitative goals to improve performance verifiability. Recruitment of international student talent is thereby turned into a mere supply issue. A mind shift is needed to rethink the efficacy of the higher education sector with regard to retaining foreign student talent as a means of contributing to society’s stock of knowledge and through that to economic growth. This thesis argues that academic as well as industrial understanding of the value of university-industry collaboration might then move beyond the current narrow expectations and perceptions of the university’s contribution to society’s innovation systems. This mind shift is needed to encourage and generate creative opportunities for university-industry partnerships to develop sustainable solutions for successful recruitment of foreign student talent, and thereby to maximize the wealth-creating potential of global student talent recruitment. This thesis demonstrates through the use of interpretive and participatory methods, how it is possible to reveal new and important insights into university-industry partnering for enhancing attraction and retention of global student talent. It accomplishes this by expressly pointing out the central role of human collaborative experiencing and learning. The narratives presented take the reader into a Finnish and Dutch universityindustry partnering environment to reflect on the relationship between the local universities of technology and their operational surroundings, a relationship that is set in a context of local and global entanglements and challenges.

The Quest for Hegemony Among Countries and Global Pollution

This paper builds on the assumption that countries behave in such a way as to improve, via their economic strength, the probability that they will attain the hegemonic position on the world stage. The quest for hegemony is modeled as a game, with countries being differentiated initially only by some endowment which yields a pollution free flow of income. A country's level of pollution is assumed directly related to its economic strength, as measured by its level of production. Two types of countries are distinguished: richly-endowed countries, for whom the return on their endowment is greater than the return they can expect from winning the hegemony race, and poorly-endowed countries, who can expect a greater return from winning the race than from their endowment. We show that in a symmetric world of poorly-endowed countries the equilibrium level of emissions is larger than in a symmetric world of richly-endowed countries: the former, being less well endowed to begin with, try harder to win the race. In the asymmetric world composed of both types of countries, the poorly-endowed countries will be polluting more than the richly endowed countries. Numerical simulations show that if the number of richly-endowed countries is increased keeping the total number of countries constant, the equilibrium level of global emissions will decrease; if the lot of the poorly-endowed countries is increased by increasing their initial endowment keeping that of the richly-endowed countries constant, global pollution will decrease; increasing the endowments of each type of countries in the same proportion, and hence increasing the average endowment in that proportion, will decrease global pollution; redistributing from the richly-endowed in favor of the poorly-endowed while keeping the average endowment constant will in general result in an increase in the equilibrium level of global pollution.

Postcolonial readings of resistance and negotiation in selected contemporary African writing

Cette dissertation traite des (re)configurations postcoloniales de la résistance et de la négociation comme concepts permettant d’aborder les représentations des conflits nationaux dans les littératures Africaines contemporaines. Ensemble, ces concepts ouvrent de nouvelles voix et possibilités de se remémorer, de raconter, et de lire la violence en problématisant non seulement les discours sur la guerre civile en Afrique, mais aussi les conceptions d’histoire nationale, de la mémoire, et de leur représentation. Si cette étude cherche à reconfigurer la négociation et la résistance au-delà des définitions qui tendent à les opposer, elle se consacre surtout à développer la notion de négociation comme stratégie de dépassement, de lecture, et d’écriture, qui, néanmoins, ne vise pas de résolution. La négociation implique ainsi une conception pluraliste d’un pouvoir d’action sociale, politique, et culturelle. Cette dissertation avance que la négociation est un concept d’écriture et de lecture qui intervient dans les événements, discours, et pratiques de remémoration en prenant compte de leurs multiplicités et définitions instables. Cette étude explore les manières selon lesquelles Nuruddin Farah, Chenjerai Hove, Yvonne Vera, Chimamanda Adichie, et Sefi Atta déploient la négociation et la résistance comme outils d’engagement esthétique et sociopolitique dans la narration de la violence en Somalie, au Zimbabwe, et au Nigeria. En outre, la négociation marque mon analyse de l’intervention des textes dans les discours d’historiographie et de représentation. Si ces romans mettent en exergue la généalogie complexe du conflit postcolonial, ils négocient aussi les implications multiples, incluant la leur, dans les questions problématiques de la responsabilité et de la représentation. La vii négociation représente un acte conscient à travers lequel nous reconnaissons l’instabilité de toute bataille politique, morale, ou éthique sans pour autant céder à un cynisme paralysant. De par son approche négociée et interdisciplinaire, cette dissertation ne fait pas qu’entrer en débat avec des discours multiples des études postcoloniales, Africaines, et littéraires. Elle intervient aussi dans les conceptions de la nation, la violence, la mémoire, la responsabilité, et la justice selon les études philosophiques, politiques, et culturelles. Outre les critiques littéraires, les chapitres interrogent les théories de penseurs tels Ngugi wa Thiong’o, David Jefferess, Pheng Cheah, et Wole Soyinka. Cette approche éclectique reflète l’attention des romans à la complexité irréductible des responsabilités individuelles et collectives dans les récits d’histoire et d’appartenance nationales. Cet engagement négocié avec les questions entourant la postcolonialité, malgré la dominance actuelle des discours de la globalisation, permet de reconceptualiser l’approche postcoloniale pour contrer les analyses déhistorisées et décontextualisées des conflits sociopolitiques en Afrique. Le chapitre 1 élabore les concepts clés de la dissertation. Le chapitre 2 explore la résistance et la négociation dans le langage figuré métonymique dans les représentations de la guerre en Somalie. Le chapitre 3 se consacre à l’analyse de la figure de la spectralité dans la narration de l’histoire et de la violence nationales au Zimbabwe. Finalement, le chapitre 4 négocie les concepts de représentation et de responsabilité dans les récits du trauma postcolonial au Nigeria. viii Mots-clés : négociation, résistance, littératures africaines, violence, responsabilité, nation, représentation

Retrieval of effective ice crystal size in the infrared: sensitivity study and global measurements from TIROS-N Operational Vertical Sounder

The difference between cirrus emissivities at 8 and 11 μm is sensitive to the mean effective ice crystal size of the cirrus cloud, De. By using single scattering properties of ice crystals shaped as planar polycrystals, diameters of up to about 70 μm can be retrieved, instead of up to 45 μm assuming spheres or hexagonal columns. The method described in this article is used for a global determination of mean effective ice crystal sizes of cirrus clouds from TOVS satellite observations. A sensitivity study of the De retrieval to uncertainties in hypotheses on ice crystal shape, size distributions, and temperature profiles, as well as in vertical and horizontal cloud heterogeneities shows that uncertainties can be as large as 30%. However, the TOVS data set is one of few data sets which provides global and long-term coverage. Having analyzed the years 1987–1991, it was found that measured effective ice crystal diameters De are stable from year to year. For 1990 a global median De of 53.5 μm was determined. Averages distinguishing ocean/land, season, and latitude lie between 23 μm in winter over Northern Hemisphere midlatitude land and 64 μm in the tropics. In general, larger Des are found in regions with higher atmospheric water vapor and for cirrus with a smaller effective emissivity.

Search space pruning and global optimization of multiple gravity assist trajectories with deep space manoeuvres

This paper deals with the design of optimal multiple gravity assist trajectories with deep space manoeuvres. A pruning method which considers the sequential nature of the problem is presented. The method locates feasible vectors using local optimization and applies a clustering algorithm to find reduced bounding boxes which can be used in a subsequent optimization step. Since multiple local minima remain within the pruned search space, the use of a global optimization method, such as Differential Evolution, is suggested for finding solutions which are likely to be close to the global optimum. Two case studies are presented.

Spin-up and adjustment of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and global pycnocline

A theory is presented for the adjustment of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and global pycnocline to a sudden and sustained change in wind forcing. The adjustment timescale is controlled by the mesoscale eddy diffusivity across the ACC, the mean width of the ACC, the surface area of the ocean basins to the north, and deep water formation in the North Atlantic. In particular, northern sinking may have the potential to shorten the timescale and reduce its sensitivity to Southern Ocean eddies, but the relative importance of northern sinking and Southern Ocean eddies cannot be determined precisely, largely due to limitations in the parameterization of northern sinking. Although it is clear that the main processes that control the adjustment timescale are those which counteract the deepening of the global pycnocline, the theory also suggests that the timescale can be subtly modified by wind forcing over the ACC and global diapycnal mixing. Results from calculations with a reduced-gravity model compare well with the theory. The multidecadal-centennial adjustment timescale implies that long observational time series will be required to detect dynamic change in the ACC due to anthropogenic forcing. The potential role of Southern Ocean mesoscale eddy activity in determining both the equilibrium state of the ACC and the timescale over which it adjusts suggests that the response to anthropogenic forcing may be different in coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models that parameterize and resolve mesoscale eddies.

Community based ecotourism as a panacea for protected areas: the use of common property theory in its analysis and development

Tourism is the worlds largest employer, accounting for 10% of jobs worldwide (WTO, 1999). There are over 30,000 protected areas around the world, covering about 10% of the land surface(IUCN, 2002). Protected area management is moving towards a more integrated form of management, which recognises the social and economic needs of the worlds finest areas and seeks to provide long term income streams and support social cohesion through active but sustainable use of resources. Ecotourism - 'responsible travel to natural areas that conserves the environment and improves the well- being of local people' (The Ecotourism Society, 1991) - is often cited as a panacea for incorporating the principles of sustainable development in protected area management. However, few examples exist worldwide to substantiate this claim. In reality, ecotourism struggles to provide social and economic empowerment locally and fails to secure proper protection of the local and global environment. Current analysis of ecotourism provides a useful checklist of interconnected principles for more successful initiatives, but no overall framework of analysis or theory. This paper argues that applying common property theory to the application of ecotourism can help to establish more rigorous, multi-layered analysis that identifies the institutional demands of community based ecotourism (CBE). The paper draws on existing literature on ecotourism and several new case studies from developed and developing countries around the world. It focuses on the governance of CBE initiatives, particularly the interaction between local stakeholders and government and the role that third party non-governmental organisations can play in brokering appropriate institutional arrangements. The paper concludes by offering future research directions."

On the approximation of local and linear radiative damping in the middle atmosphere

The validity of approximating radiative heating rates in the middle atmosphere by a local linear relaxation to a reference temperature state (i.e., ‘‘Newtonian cooling’’) is investigated. Using radiative heating rate and temperature output from a chemistry–climate model with realistic spatiotemporal variability and realistic chemical and radiative parameterizations, it is found that a linear regressionmodel can capture more than 80% of the variance in longwave heating rates throughout most of the stratosphere and mesosphere, provided that the damping rate is allowed to vary with height, latitude, and season. The linear model describes departures from the climatological mean, not from radiative equilibrium. Photochemical damping rates in the upper stratosphere are similarly diagnosed. Threeimportant exceptions, however, are found.The approximation of linearity breaks down near the edges of the polar vortices in both hemispheres. This nonlinearity can be well captured by including a quadratic term. The use of a scale-independentdamping rate is not well justified in the lower tropical stratosphere because of the presence of a broad spectrum of vertical scales. The local assumption fails entirely during the breakup of the Antarctic vortex, where large fluctuations in temperature near the top of the vortex influence longwave heating rates within the quiescent region below. These results are relevant for mechanistic modeling studies of the middle atmosphere, particularly those investigating the final Antarctic warming.

A methodology for in-situ and remote sensing of microphysical and radiative properties of contrails as they evolve into cirrus

Contrails and especially their evolution into cirrus-like clouds are thought to have very important effects on local and global radiation budgets, though are generally not well represented in global climate models. Lack of contrail parameterisations is due to the limited availability of in situ contrail measurements which are difficult to obtain. Here we present a methodology for successful sampling and interpretation of contrail microphysical and radiative data using both in situ and remote sensing instrumentation on board the FAAM BAe146 UK research aircraft as part of the COntrails Spreading Into Cirrus (COSIC) study.

Urban climates and global climate change

Cities and global climate change are closely linked: cities are where the bulk of greenhouse gas emissions take place through the consumption of fossil fuels; they are where an increasing proportion of the world’s people live; and they also generate their own climate – commonly characterized by the urban heat island. In this way, understanding the way cities affect the cycling of energy, water, and carbon to create an urban climate is a key element of climate mitigation and adaptation strategies, especially in the context of rising global temperatures and deteriorating air quality in many cities. As climate models resolve finer spatial-scales, they will need to represent those areas in which more than 50% of the world’s population already live to provide climate projections that are of greater use to planning and decision-making. Finally, many of the processes that are instrumental in determining urban climate are the same factors leading to global anthropogenic climate change, namely regional-scale land-use changes; increased energy use; and increased emissions of climatically-relevant atmospheric constituents. Cities are therefore both a case study for understanding, and an agent in mitigating, anthropogenic climate change. This chapter reviews and summarizes the current state of understanding of the physical basis of urban climates, as well as our ability to represent these in models. We argue that addressing the challenges of managing urban environments in a changing climate requires understanding the energy, water, and carbon balances for an urban landscape and, importantly, their interactions and feedbacks, together with their links to human behaviour and controls. We conclude with some suggestions for where further research is needed.