Terrorism risk, resilience and volatility : a comparison of terrorism patterns in three Southeast Asian countries

Objective This article explores patterns of terrorist activity over the period from 2000 through 2010 across three target countries: Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand. Methods We use self-exciting point process models to create interpretable and replicable metrics for three key terrorism concepts: risk, resilience and volatility, as defined in the context of terrorist activity. Results Analysis of the data shows significant and important differences in the risk, volatility and resilience metrics over time across the three countries. For the three countries analysed, we show that risk varied on a scale from 0.005 to 1.61 “expected terrorist attacks per day”, volatility ranged from 0.820 to 0.994 “additional attacks caused by each attack”, and resilience, as measured by the number of days until risk subsides to a pre-attack level, ranged from 19 to 39 days. We find that of the three countries, Indonesia had the lowest average risk and volatility, and the highest level of resilience, indicative of the relatively sporadic nature of terrorist activity in Indonesia. The high terrorism risk and low resilience in the Philippines was a function of the more intense, less clustered pattern of terrorism than what was evident in Indonesia. Conclusions Mathematical models hold great promise for creating replicable, reliable and interpretable “metrics” to key terrorism concepts such as risk, resilience and volatility.

Bouncing back : developing resilience

We always seem to hear about those dancers who are successful, but how do you cope when you don't get what you want? In life, we are often faced with situations where things don’t quite go to plan. We might not get the job we wanted, the grade we expected, the grant we applied for, or that long-dreamed of opportunity. What we make of these experiences shapes how we respond in the future to similar events...

Promoting resilience and posttraumatic growth in medical professionals

Across the lifespan traumatic experiences are common with more people experiencing such events than not. Within the context of being a medical professional trauma may result from a direct experience (e.g., in a person’s personal life) but may also occur vicariously. For example, a medical professional may be traumatized during the course of their employ as they come to the aid of a trauma survivor. Although there can be long term negative sequale for trauma survivors (e.g., PTSD, depression), the majority of people who experience trauma, vicariously or otherwise, are resilient to long term effects and some people grow or develop beyond their pre-event level of functioning. Therefore, in addition to interest in antecedents and correlates of pathology, research examining the predictors and correlates of resilience and growth has gained notable attention. In this chapter the fundamental assumptions of the salutogenic theory are discussed. Salutogenisis refers to the study of the origins of health and to that end has a goal to determine factors involved in promoting and maintaining health. The chapter then goes on to describe posttraumatic growth, a term used to denote positive post-trauma changes as well as resilience including discussion of the similarities and differences between these two constructs. Ways of promoting growth and resilience in medical professionals are then identified. The chapter concludes with discussion of ways in which individuals can enhance their potential for growth and also of ways in which the organization they work for can best facilitate and promote resilience and growth in its employees.

Creating regional resilience in Australia

This paper explores the impact that extreme weather events can have on communities. Using the Brisbane floods of 2011 to examine the recovery operations, the paper highlights the effectiveness of recovery and rebuilding in already strong and resilient communities. Our research has shown that communities which have a strong sense of identity, as well as organized places to meet, develop resilient networks that come into play in times of crisis. The increasing trend of the fly-in/fly-out (FIFO) or drive-in/drive-out (DIDO) workforce to service regional areas has undermined the resilience of existing communities. The first hint of this occurs with community groups not knowing who their neighbours are. The paper is based on research examining the needs of groups in regional communities with the goal to better equip regional communities with the capacity to respond positively to change (and crisis) through in-novative, evidence-based policies, resilience strategies and tools. Part of this process was to build an evidence-base to address a range of challenges associated with the place-based environments and the sharing of information systems within communities and decision makers. The first part of the paper explores the context in which communities have been required to mobilize in response to crises; the issues that have galvanized a common purpose; and the methods by which these communities shared their knowledge. The second part of the paper examines how communities could plan for and mitigate natural disasters in the future by developing better decision making tools. The paper defines the requirements for information systems that will link data models of built infrastruc-ture with data from the disaster and response plans. These will then form the basis for the use of social media to coordinate activities between official crews and the public to improve response coordination and provide the technology that could reduce the time required to allow communities to resume some semblance of normality.

Promoting resilience and effective workplace functioning in international students in health courses

The purpose of this project was to improve the quality of the learning experiences of international students in nursing, public health and nutrition and dietetics, both at university and in the clinical setting. The university worked in partnership with three major metropolitan health care facilities/services in Queensland to develop a framework and resources designed to promote quality work-integrated learning experiences for international students and clinical supervisory staff. The Resilience in International Student Education (RISE) model consists of student and staff workshops complemented by a purpose-built Cultural Connections for Learning (CCL) website that provides access to a wide variety of information and other learning resources. Quantitative and qualitative evaluations indicate that the approach is highly valued by participants as it promotes useful dialogue, sharing of experiences and greater understanding regarding quality learning experiences for international students in the health workplace. It provides an ideal springboard for promoting collaboration between international students and clinical supervisors in the workplace. The resources developed have the potential to enhance student learning as well as clinical teaching. The challenge will be to achieve continued progress within international student education through the development of sustainable strategies to embed the program within the context of individual curricula.

The prevention of childhood anxiety and promotion of resilience among preschool-aged children : a universal school based trial

This study is the first to examine the effectiveness of the Fun FRIENDS programme, a school-based, universal preventive intervention for early childhood anxiety and promotion of resilience delivered by classroom teachers. Participants (N = 488) included children aged 4–7 years attending 1 of 14 Catholic Education schools in Brisbane, Australia. The schools were randomly allocated to one of three groups, the intervention, active comparison and waitlist control group. Parents completed standardized measures of anxiety and behavioural inhibition (BI), resilience, social and emotional functioning and behaviour difficulties in addition to parental stress and anxiety, at pre- and post- and 12-month follow-up. Teachers also completed a parallel measure of social and emotional strength at the three time points. Comparable results were obtained for the intervention and comparison groups; however, the intervention group (IG) achieved greater reductions in BI, child behavioural difficulties and improvements in social and emotional competence. In addition, significant improvements in parenting distress and parent–child interactions were found for the IG, with gains maintained at 12-month follow-up. Teacher reports revealed more significant improvement in social and emotional competence for the IG. Clinical implications of the findings are discussed, along with limitations and directions for future research.

Review: "Planning Asian cities : risks and resilience" edited by Stephen Hamnett and Dean Forbes, Planning, History and Environment Series, London, Routledge, 2011

Since the beginning of the agricultural revolution, cities have always been the cradle of civilisation, innovation and productivity, particularly as a result of the recent change factors affecting their (trans)formation, such as globalisation, the knowledge economy, technological advancements, climate change and so on. While in some parts of the world, cities are rapidly growing, in other parts, cities are shrinking, and their populations are aging. Even under the current pressure of constantly changing global conditions, the role of cities in influencing and partially shaping local, regional, national, supranational and even global level economy, society, environment and governance is undeniable. Global changes, while providing opportunities for cities and their administrations to reform and revisit existing planning and development processes and mechanisms, at the same time, challenge them by dealing with everincreasing risks and establishing resilience. At present, more than half of the world’s population...

Assessing resilience of water supply systems under the impacts of climate change

This project was a step forward in developing the scientific basis for a methodology to assess the resilience of water supply systems under the impacts of climate change. The improved measure of resilience developed in this project provides an approach to assess the ability of water supply systems to absorb the pressure due changing climate while sustaining supply, and their speed of recovery in case of failure. The approach developed can be applied to any generic water supply system.

Promoting resilience in children with intellectual disability : a randomized controlled trial in Australian schools

Children with intellectual disability are more vulnerable to adverse developmental outcomes because of the lifelong risks associated with cognitive impairment. Difficulties with learning and adaptive behaviour inevitably produce considerable personal, social and economic disadvantage. Of concern is consistent evidence that psychiatric disorders affect a substantial proportion of people with intellectual disability. The estimated prevalence rate of between 35 and 49 % is three times that found in the general population (Wallander, Dekker, & Koot, 2006). Until recently, mental illness has been relatively neglected for people with intellectual disability, especially in relation to prevention or early detection (Kolaitis, 2008) and most research to date has been descriptive rather than focused on intervention (Bouras, 2013). Yet a considerable body of evidence demonstrates that efficacious interventions do exist for preventing psychopathology and enhancing resilience in typically developing children and adolescents (see Mallin, Walker, & Levin, 2013 for a review). In order to prevent the high comorbidity of intellectual disability and psychopathology, there is a compelling need for evidence-based practices that promote the resilience of individuals with intellectual disability (Matson, Terlonge, & Minshawi, 2008). In this chapter, we describe a randomized controlled trial of an intervention that was designed to enhance the resilience of a group of children with mild intellectual disability as they prepared to make the transition to high school. We report results from our evaluation of this intervention, and reflect on the difficulties of providing successful interventions for children whose lives are complicated not only by intellectual disability, but also by a range of contextual disadvantages.

Resilience and opportunity : regions and the roll-out of Australia's greenhouse gas abatement programs. A manual for Queensland's NRM regions

Voluntary and compliance markets for forest carbon and other (emission avoidance and biosequestration) activities are growing internationally and across Australia. Queensland and its Natural Resource Management (NRM) regions have an opportunity to take a variety of actions to help guide these markets to secure multiple landscape benefits and to build landscape resilience in the face of climate change. As the national arrangements for offsets within Australia’s Clean Energy Package (CEP) and emissions trading environment emerge, Queensland’s regions can prepare themselves and their landholding communities to take advantage of these opportunities to deliver improved climate resilience in their regional landscapes.

Conceptualising, evaluating and reporting social resilience in vulnerable regional and remote communities facing climate change in tropical Queensland : marine and tropical sciences research facility transition project final report

Regional and remote communities in tropical Queensland are among Australia’s most vulnerable in the face of climate change. At the same time, these socially and economically vulnerable regions house some of Australia’s most significant biodiversity values. Past approaches to terrestrial biodiversity management have focused on tackling biophysical interventions through the use of biophysical knowledge. An equally important focus should be placed on building regional-scale community resilience if some of the worst biodiversity impacts of climate change are to be avoided or mitigated. Despite its critical need, more systemic or holistic approaches to natural resource management have been rarely trialed and tested in a structured way. Currently, most strategic interventions in improving regional community resilience are ad hoc, not theory-based and short term. Past planning approaches have not been durable, nor have they been well informed by clear indicators. Research into indicators for community resilience has been poorly integrated within adaptive planning and management cycles. This project has aimed to resolve this problem by: * Reviewing the community and social resilience and adaptive planning literature to reconceptualise an improved framework for applying community resilience concepts; * Harvesting and extending work undertaken in MTSRF Phase 1 to identifying the learnings emerging from past MTSRF research; * Distilling these findings to identify new theoretical and practical approaches to the application of community resilience in natural resource use and management; * Reconsidering the potential interplay between a region’s biophysical and social planning processes, with a focus on exploring spatial tools to communicate climate change risk and its consequent environmental, economic and social impacts, and; * Trialling new approaches to indicator development and adaptive planning to improve community resilience, using a sub-regional pilot in the Wet Tropics. In doing so, we also looked at ways to improve the use and application of relevant spatial information. Our theoretical review drew upon the community development, psychology and emergency management literature to better frame the concept of community resilience relative to aligned concepts of social resilience, vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Firstly, we consider community resilience as a concept that can be considered at a range of scales (e.g. regional, locality, communities of interest, etc.). We also consider that overall resilience at higher scales will be influenced by resilience levels at lesser scales (inclusive of the resilience of constituent institutions, families and individuals). We illustrate that, at any scale, resilience and vulnerability are not necessarily polar opposites, and that some understanding of vulnerability is important in determining resilience. We position social resilience (a concept focused on the social characteristics of communities and individuals) as an important attribute of community resilience, but one that needs to be considered alongside economic, natural resource, capacity-based and governance attributes. The findings from the review of theory and MTSRF Phase 1 projects were synthesized and refined by the wider project team. Five predominant themes were distilled from this literature, research review and an expert analysis. They include the findings that: 1. Indicators have most value within an integrated and adaptive planning context, requiring an active co-research relationship between community resilience planners, managers and researchers if real change is to be secured; 2. Indicators of community resilience form the basis for planning for social assets and the resilience of social assets is directly related the longer term resilience of natural assets. This encourages and indeed requires the explicit development and integration of social planning within a broader natural resource planning and management framework; 3. Past indicator research and application has not provided a broad picture of the key attributes of community resilience and there have been many attempts to elicit lists of “perfect” indicators that may never be useful within the time and resource limitations of real world regional planning and management. We consider that modeling resilience for proactive planning and prediction purposes requires the consideration of simple but integrated clusters of attributes; 4. Depending on time and resources available for planning and management, the combined use of well suited indicators and/or other lesser “lines of evidence” is more flexible than the pursuit of perfect indicators, and that; 5. Index-based, collaborative and participatory approaches need to be applied to the development, refinement and reporting of indicators over longer time frames. We trialed the practical application of these concepts via the establishment of a collaborative regional alliance of planners and managers involved in the development of climate change adaptation strategies across tropical Queensland (the Gulf, Wet Tropics, Cape York and Torres Strait sub-regions). A focus on the Wet Tropics as a pilot sub-region enabled other Far North Queensland sub-region’s to participate and explore the potential extension of this approach. The pilot activities included: * Further exploring ways to innovatively communicate the region’s likely climate change scenarios and possible environmental, economic and social impacts. We particularly looked at using spatial tools to overlay climate change risks to geographic communities and social vulnerabilities within those communities; * Developing a cohesive first pass of a State of the Region-style approach to reporting community resilience, inclusive of regional economic viability, community vitality, capacitybased and governance attributes. This framework integrated a literature review, expert (academic and community) and alliance-based contributions; and * Early consideration of critical strategies that need to be included in unfolding regional planning activities with Far North Queensland. The pilot assessment finds that rural, indigenous and some urban populations in the Wet Tropics are highly vulnerable and sensitive to climate change and may require substantial support to adapt and become more resilient. This assessment finds that under current conditions (i.e. if significant adaptation actions are not taken) the Wet Tropics as a whole may be seriously impacted by the most significant features of climate change and extreme climatic events. Without early and substantive action, this could result in declining social and economic wellbeing and natural resource health. Of the four attributes we consider important to understanding community resilience, the Wet Tropics region is particularly vulnerable in two areas; specifically its economic vitality and knowledge, aspirations and capacity. The third and fourth attributes, community vitality and institutional governance are relatively resilient but are vulnerable in some key respects. In regard to all four of these attributes, however, there is some emerging capacity to manage the possible shocks that may be associated with the impacts of climate change and extreme climatic events. This capacity needs to be carefully fostered and further developed to achieve broader community resilience outcomes. There is an immediate need to build individual, household, community and sectoral resilience across all four attribute groups to enable populations and communities in the Wet Tropics region to adapt in the face of climate change. Preliminary strategies of importance to improve regional community resilience have been identified. These emerging strategies also have been integrated into the emerging Regional Development Australia Roadmap, and this will ensure that effective implementation will be progressed and coordinated. They will also inform emerging strategy development to secure implementation of the FNQ 2031 Regional Plan. Of most significance in our view, this project has taken a co-research approach from the outset with explicit and direct importance and influence within the region’s formal planning and management arrangements. As such, the research: * Now forms the foundations of the first attempt at “Social Asset” planning within the Wet Tropics Regional NRM Plan review; * Is assisting Local government at regional scale to consider aspects of climate change adaptation in emerging planning scheme/community planning processes; * Has partnered the State government (via the Department of Infrastructure and Planning and Regional Managers Coordination Network Chair) in progressing the Climate Change adaptation agenda set down within the FNQ 2031 Regional Plan; * Is informing new approaches to report on community resilience within the GBRMPA Outlook reporting framework; and * Now forms the foundation for the region’s wider climate change adaptation priorities in the Regional Roadmap developed by Regional Development Australia. Through the auspices of Regional Development Australia, the outcomes of the research will now inform emerging negotiations concerning a wider package of climate change adaptation priorities with State and Federal governments. Next stage research priorities are also being developed to enable an ongoing alliance between researchers and the region’s climate change response.

Validation of a framework for measuring hospital disaster resilience using factor analysis

Hospital disaster resilience can be defined as “the ability of hospitals to resist, absorb, and respond to the shock of disasters while maintaining and surging essential health services, and then to recover to its original state or adapt to a new one.” This article aims to provide a framework which can be used to comprehensively measure hospital disaster resilience. An evaluation framework for assessing hospital resilience was initially proposed through a systematic literature review and Modified-Delphi consultation. Eight key domains were identified: hospital safety, command, communication and cooperation system, disaster plan, resource stockpile, staff capability, disaster training and drills, emergency services and surge capability, and recovery and adaptation. The data for this study were collected from 41 tertiary hospitals in Shandong Province in China, using a specially designed questionnaire. Factor analysis was conducted to determine the underpinning structure of the framework. It identified a four-factor structure of hospital resilience, namely, emergency medical response capability (F1), disaster management mechanisms (F2), hospital infrastructural safety (F3), and disaster resources (F4). These factors displayed good internal consistency. The overall level of hospital disaster resilience (F) was calculated using the scoring model: F = 0.615F1 + 0.202F2 + 0.103F3 + 0.080F4. This validated framework provides a new way to operationalise the concept of hospital resilience, and it is also a foundation for the further development of the measurement instrument in future studies.

Disaster resilience in tertiary hospitals : a cross-sectional survey in Shandong Province, China

Background: Hospital disaster resilience can be defined as a hospital’s ability to resist, absorb, and respond to the shock of disasters while maintaining critical functions, and then to recover to its original state or adapt to a new one. This study aims to explore the status of resilience among tertiary hospitals in Shandong Province, China. Methods: A stratified random sample (n = 50) was derived from tertiary A, tertiary B, and tertiary C hospitals in Shandong Province, and was surveyed by questionnaire. Data on hospital characteristics and 8 key domains of hospital resilience were collected and analysed. Variables were binary, and analysed using descriptive statistics such as frequencies. Results: A response rate of 82% (n = 41) was attained. Factor analysis identified four key factors from eight domains which appear to reflect the overall level of disaster resilience. These were hospital safety, disaster management mechanisms, disaster resources and disaster medical care capability. The survey demonstrated that in regard to hospital safety, 93% had syndromic surveillance systems for infectious diseases and 68% had evaluated their safety standards. In regard to disaster management mechanisms, all had general plans, while only 20% had specific plans for individual hazards. 49% had a public communication protocol and 43.9% attended the local coordination meetings. In regard to disaster resources, 75.6% and 87.5% stockpiled emergency drugs and materials respectively, while less than a third (30%) had a signed Memorandum of Understanding with other hospitals to share these resources. Finally in regard to medical care, 66% could dispatch an on-site medical rescue team, but only 5% had a ‘portable hospital’ function and 36.6% and 12% of the hospitals could surge their beds and staff capacity respectively. The average beds surge capacity within 1 day was 13%. Conclusions: This study validated the broad utility of a framework for understanding and measuring the level of hospital resilience. The survey demonstrated considerable variability in disaster resilience arrangements of tertiary hospitals in Shandong province, and the difference between tertiary A hospitals and tertiary B hospitals was also identified in essential areas.

Assessing community resilience to climate change

Settlements and communities in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) are highly vulnerable to climate change and face an uncertain social, economic and environmental future. The concept of community resilience is gaining momentum as stakeholders and institutions seek to better understand the social, economic and governance factors which affect community capacity to adapt in the face of climate change. This paper defines a framework to benchmark community resilience and applies it to a case study in the Wet Tropics in tropical Queensland within the GBR catchment. It finds that rural, indigenous and some urban populations are highly vulnerable and sensitive to climate change, particularly in terms of economic vitality, community knowledge, aspirations and capacity for adaptation. Without early and substantive action, this could result in declining social and economic wellbeing and natural resource health. Capacity to manage the possible shocks associated with the impacts of climate change and extreme climatic events is emerging and needs to be carefully fostered and further developed to achieve broader community resilience outcomes. Better information about what actions, policies and arrangements build community resilience and mobilise adaptive capacity in the face of climate change is needed.