Fatigue and Co-occurring Symptoms in Women with Irritable Bowel Syndrome

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Migraine With Aura and Migraine Without Aura Are Not Distinct Entities: Further Evidence From a Large Dutch Population Study

It is often debated whether migraine with aura (MA) and migraine without aura (MO) are etiologically distinct disorders. A previous study using latent class analysis (LCA) in Australian twins showed no evidence for separate subtypes of MO and MA. The aim of the present study was to replicate these results in a population of Dutch twins and their parents, siblings and partners (N = 10,144). Latent class analysis of International Headache Society (IHS)-based migraine symptoms resulted in the identification of 4 classes: a class of unaffected subjects (class 0), a mild form of nonmigrainous headache (class 1), a moderately severe type of migraine (class 2), typically without neurological symptoms or aura (8% reporting aura symptoms), and a severe type of migraine (class 3), typically with neurological symptoms, and aura symptoms in approximately half of the cases. Given the overlap of neurological symptoms and nonmutual exclusivity of aura symptoms, these results do not support the MO and MA subtypes as being etiologically distinct. The heritability in female twins of migraine based on LCA classification was estimated at .50 (95% confidence intervals [0CI} .27 -.59), similar to IHS-based migraine diagnosis (h(2) = .49, 95% Cl .19-.57). However, using a dichotomous classification (affected-unaffected) decreased heritability for the IHS-based classification (h(2) = .33, 95% Cl .00-.60), but not the LCA-based classification (h(2) = .51, 95% Cl. 23-.61). Importantly, use of the LCA-based classification increased the number of subjects classified as affected. The heritability of the screening question was similar to more detailed LCA and IHS classifications, suggesting that the screening procedure is an important determining factor in genetic studies of migraine.

A Correlation Analysis on LSA and HAL Semantic Space Models

In this paper, we compare a well-known semantic spacemodel, Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA) with another model, Hyperspace Analogue to Language (HAL) which is widely used in different area, especially in automatic query refinement. We conduct this comparative analysis to prove our hypothesis that with respect to ability of extracting the lexical information from a corpus of text, LSA is quite similar to HAL. We regard HAL and LSA as black boxes. Through a Pearsonrsquos correlation analysis to the outputs of these two black boxes, we conclude that LSA highly co-relates with HAL and thus there is a justification that LSA and HAL can potentially play a similar role in the area of facilitating automatic query refinement. This paper evaluates LSA in a new application area and contributes an effective way to compare different semantic space models.

Discovering user access pattern based on probabilistic latent factor model

There has been an increased demand for characterizing user access patterns using web mining techniques since the informative knowledge extracted from web server log files can not only offer benefits for web site structure improvement but also for better understanding of user navigational behavior. In this paper, we present a web usage mining method, which utilize web user usage and page linkage information to capture user access pattern based on Probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis (PLSA) model. A specific probabilistic model analysis algorithm, EM algorithm, is applied to the integrated usage data to infer the latent semantic factors as well as generate user session clusters for revealing user access patterns. Experiments have been conducted on real world data set to validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The results have shown that the presented method is capable of characterizing the latent semantic factors and generating user profile in terms of weighted page vectors, which may reflect the common access interest exhibited by users among same session cluster.

Bayesian Inference in Large-scale Problems

Many modern applications fall into the category of "large-scale" statistical problems, in which both the number of observations n and the number of features or parameters p may be large. Many existing methods focus on point estimation, despite the continued relevance of uncertainty quantification in the sciences, where the number of parameters to estimate often exceeds the sample size, despite huge increases in the value of n typically seen in many fields. Thus, the tendency in some areas of industry to dispense with traditional statistical analysis on the basis that "n=all" is of little relevance outside of certain narrow applications. The main result of the Big Data revolution in most fields has instead been to make computation much harder without reducing the importance of uncertainty quantification. Bayesian methods excel at uncertainty quantification, but often scale poorly relative to alternatives. This conflict between the statistical advantages of Bayesian procedures and their substantial computational disadvantages is perhaps the greatest challenge facing modern Bayesian statistics, and is the primary motivation for the work presented here.

Two general strategies for scaling Bayesian inference are considered. The first is the development of methods that lend themselves to faster computation, and the second is design and characterization of computational algorithms that scale better in n or p. In the first instance, the focus is on joint inference outside of the standard problem of multivariate continuous data that has been a major focus of previous theoretical work in this area. In the second area, we pursue strategies for improving the speed of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, and characterizing their performance in large-scale settings. Throughout, the focus is on rigorous theoretical evaluation combined with empirical demonstrations of performance and concordance with the theory.

One topic we consider is modeling the joint distribution of multivariate categorical data, often summarized in a contingency table. Contingency table analysis routinely relies on log-linear models, with latent structure analysis providing a common alternative. Latent structure models lead to a reduced rank tensor factorization of the probability mass function for multivariate categorical data, while log-linear models achieve dimensionality reduction through sparsity. Little is known about the relationship between these notions of dimensionality reduction in the two paradigms. In Chapter 2, we derive several results relating the support of a log-linear model to nonnegative ranks of the associated probability tensor. Motivated by these findings, we propose a new collapsed Tucker class of tensor decompositions, which bridge existing PARAFAC and Tucker decompositions, providing a more flexible framework for parsimoniously characterizing multivariate categorical data. Taking a Bayesian approach to inference, we illustrate empirical advantages of the new decompositions.

Latent class models for the joint distribution of multivariate categorical, such as the PARAFAC decomposition, data play an important role in the analysis of population structure. In this context, the number of latent classes is interpreted as the number of genetically distinct subpopulations of an organism, an important factor in the analysis of evolutionary processes and conservation status. Existing methods focus on point estimates of the number of subpopulations, and lack robust uncertainty quantification. Moreover, whether the number of latent classes in these models is even an identified parameter is an open question. In Chapter 3, we show that when the model is properly specified, the correct number of subpopulations can be recovered almost surely. We then propose an alternative method for estimating the number of latent subpopulations that provides good quantification of uncertainty, and provide a simple procedure for verifying that the proposed method is consistent for the number of subpopulations. The performance of the model in estimating the number of subpopulations and other common population structure inference problems is assessed in simulations and a real data application.

In contingency table analysis, sparse data is frequently encountered for even modest numbers of variables, resulting in non-existence of maximum likelihood estimates. A common solution is to obtain regularized estimates of the parameters of a log-linear model. Bayesian methods provide a coherent approach to regularization, but are often computationally intensive. Conjugate priors ease computational demands, but the conjugate Diaconis--Ylvisaker priors for the parameters of log-linear models do not give rise to closed form credible regions, complicating posterior inference. In Chapter 4 we derive the optimal Gaussian approximation to the posterior for log-linear models with Diaconis--Ylvisaker priors, and provide convergence rate and finite-sample bounds for the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the exact posterior and the optimal Gaussian approximation. We demonstrate empirically in simulations and a real data application that the approximation is highly accurate, even in relatively small samples. The proposed approximation provides a computationally scalable and principled approach to regularized estimation and approximate Bayesian inference for log-linear models.

Another challenging and somewhat non-standard joint modeling problem is inference on tail dependence in stochastic processes. In applications where extreme dependence is of interest, data are almost always time-indexed. Existing methods for inference and modeling in this setting often cluster extreme events or choose window sizes with the goal of preserving temporal information. In Chapter 5, we propose an alternative paradigm for inference on tail dependence in stochastic processes with arbitrary temporal dependence structure in the extremes, based on the idea that the information on strength of tail dependence and the temporal structure in this dependence are both encoded in waiting times between exceedances of high thresholds. We construct a class of time-indexed stochastic processes with tail dependence obtained by endowing the support points in de Haan's spectral representation of max-stable processes with velocities and lifetimes. We extend Smith's model to these max-stable velocity processes and obtain the distribution of waiting times between extreme events at multiple locations. Motivated by this result, a new definition of tail dependence is proposed that is a function of the distribution of waiting times between threshold exceedances, and an inferential framework is constructed for estimating the strength of extremal dependence and quantifying uncertainty in this paradigm. The method is applied to climatological, financial, and electrophysiology data.

The remainder of this thesis focuses on posterior computation by Markov chain Monte Carlo. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is the dominant paradigm for posterior computation in Bayesian analysis. It has long been common to control computation time by making approximations to the Markov transition kernel. Comparatively little attention has been paid to convergence and estimation error in these approximating Markov Chains. In Chapter 6, we propose a framework for assessing when to use approximations in MCMC algorithms, and how much error in the transition kernel should be tolerated to obtain optimal estimation performance with respect to a specified loss function and computational budget. The results require only ergodicity of the exact kernel and control of the kernel approximation accuracy. The theoretical framework is applied to approximations based on random subsets of data, low-rank approximations of Gaussian processes, and a novel approximating Markov chain for discrete mixture models.

Data augmentation Gibbs samplers are arguably the most popular class of algorithm for approximately sampling from the posterior distribution for the parameters of generalized linear models. The truncated Normal and Polya-Gamma data augmentation samplers are standard examples for probit and logit links, respectively. Motivated by an important problem in quantitative advertising, in Chapter 7 we consider the application of these algorithms to modeling rare events. We show that when the sample size is large but the observed number of successes is small, these data augmentation samplers mix very slowly, with a spectral gap that converges to zero at a rate at least proportional to the reciprocal of the square root of the sample size up to a log factor. In simulation studies, moderate sample sizes result in high autocorrelations and small effective sample sizes. Similar empirical results are observed for related data augmentation samplers for multinomial logit and probit models. When applied to a real quantitative advertising dataset, the data augmentation samplers mix very poorly. Conversely, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and a type of independence chain Metropolis algorithm show good mixing on the same dataset.

Transitions in Contentious Behaviour in Infancy and Later Aggressive Conduct Problems

Background. Individual trajectories toward aggression originate in early infancy, before there is intent to harm. We focused on infants who were contentious, i.e., prone to engage in anger and use of physical force with other people, and examined change in levels of contentiousness between 6 and 12 months of age with reference to later aggressive conduct problems.
Sample. The CCDS is a nationally representative sample of 321 firstborn children whose families were recruited from antenatal clinics in two National Health Service Trusts.
Method. Mothers, fathers, and a third family member or friend who knew infants well completed the Cardiff Infant Contentiousness Scale (CICS) at 6 months, which was stable form 6 to 12 months, and validated by direct observation of infants’ use of force against peers. Primary caregivers again completed the CICS at 12 months, and up to three informants completed the Child Behaviour Check List at mean ages of 36 and 84 months. We used Latent Transition Analysis to identify different groups of infants in respect to their patterns of contentiousness from 6 to 12 months.
Results
Three ordered classes of contentiousness from low to high were found at 6 and 12 months. Infants exposed to greater family adversity were more likely to move into the high-contentious class from 6 to 12 months. Higher contentiousness in infancy predicted more aggressive conduct problems at 33 months and thereafter.
Conclusions
Infants exposed to family adversity are already at disadvantage by 6 months and likely to escalate in their anger and aggressiveness over time.

Discovery driven analysis on semi-structured text data

Discovery Driven Analysis (DDA) is a common feature of OLAP technology to analyze structured data. In essence, DDA helps analysts to discover anomalous data by highlighting 'unexpected' values in the OLAP cube. By giving indications to the analyst on what dimensions to explore, DDA speeds up the process of discovering anomalies and their causes. However, Discovery Driven Analysis (and OLAP in general) is only applicable on structured data, such as records in databases. We propose a system to extend DDA technology to semi-structured text documents, that is, text documents with a few structured data. Our system pipeline consists of two stages: first, the text part of each document is structured around user specified dimensions, using semi-PLSA algorithm; then, we adapt DDA to these fully structured documents, thus enabling DDA on text documents. We present some applications of this system in OLAP analysis and show how scalability issues are solved. Results show that our system can handle reasonable datasets of documents, in real time, without any need for pre-computation.

Usefulness of social tagging in organizing and providing access to the web: An analysis of indexing consistency and quality

This dissertation research points out major challenging problems with current Knowledge Organization (KO) systems, such as subject gateways or web directories: (1) the current systems use traditional knowledge organization systems based on controlled vocabulary which is not very well suited to web resources, and (2) information is organized by professionals not by users, which means it does not reflect intuitively and instantaneously expressed users’ current needs. In order to explore users’ needs, I examined social tags which are user-generated uncontrolled vocabulary. As investment in professionally-developed subject gateways and web directories diminishes (support for both BUBL and Intute, examined in this study, is being discontinued), understanding characteristics of social tagging becomes even more critical. Several researchers have discussed social tagging behavior and its usefulness for classification or retrieval; however, further research is needed to qualitatively and quantitatively investigate social tagging in order to verify its quality and benefit. This research particularly examined the indexing consistency of social tagging in comparison to professional indexing to examine the quality and efficacy of tagging. The data analysis was divided into three phases: analysis of indexing consistency, analysis of tagging effectiveness, and analysis of tag attributes. Most indexing consistency studies have been conducted with a small number of professional indexers, and they tended to exclude users. Furthermore, the studies mainly have focused on physical library collections. This dissertation research bridged these gaps by (1) extending the scope of resources to various web documents indexed by users and (2) employing the Information Retrieval (IR) Vector Space Model (VSM) - based indexing consistency method since it is suitable for dealing with a large number of indexers. As a second phase, an analysis of tagging effectiveness with tagging exhaustivity and tag specificity was conducted to ameliorate the drawbacks of consistency analysis based on only the quantitative measures of vocabulary matching. Finally, to investigate tagging pattern and behaviors, a content analysis on tag attributes was conducted based on the FRBR model. The findings revealed that there was greater consistency over all subjects among taggers compared to that for two groups of professionals. The analysis of tagging exhaustivity and tag specificity in relation to tagging effectiveness was conducted to ameliorate difficulties associated with limitations in the analysis of indexing consistency based on only the quantitative measures of vocabulary matching. Examination of exhaustivity and specificity of social tags provided insights into particular characteristics of tagging behavior and its variation across subjects. To further investigate the quality of tags, a Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA) was conducted to determine to what extent tags are conceptually related to professionals’ keywords and it was found that tags of higher specificity tended to have a higher semantic relatedness to professionals’ keywords. This leads to the conclusion that the term’s power as a differentiator is related to its semantic relatedness to documents. The findings on tag attributes identified the important bibliographic attributes of tags beyond describing subjects or topics of a document. The findings also showed that tags have essential attributes matching those defined in FRBR. Furthermore, in terms of specific subject areas, the findings originally identified that taggers exhibited different tagging behaviors representing distinctive features and tendencies on web documents characterizing digital heterogeneous media resources. These results have led to the conclusion that there should be an increased awareness of diverse user needs by subject in order to improve metadata in practical applications. This dissertation research is the first necessary step to utilize social tagging in digital information organization by verifying the quality and efficacy of social tagging. This dissertation research combined both quantitative (statistics) and qualitative (content analysis using FRBR) approaches to vocabulary analysis of tags which provided a more complete examination of the quality of tags. Through the detailed analysis of tag properties undertaken in this dissertation, we have a clearer understanding of the extent to which social tagging can be used to replace (and in some cases to improve upon) professional indexing.

Facteurs de risque pour les maladies diarrhéiques chez les enfants à Dakar : une analyse multi-niveaux avec variables latentes

Au Sénégal, les maladies diarrhéiques constituent un fardeau important, qui pèse encore lourdement sur la santé des enfants. Ces maladies sont influencées par un large éventail de facteurs, appartenant à différents niveaux et sphères d'analyse. Cet article analyse ces facteurs de risque et leur rôle relatif dans les maladies diarrhéiques de l'enfant à Dakar. Ce faisant, elle illustre une nouvelle approche pour synthétiser le réseau de ces déterminants. Une analyse en classes latentes (LCA) est d’abord menée, puis les variables latentes ainsi construites sont utilisées comme variables explicatives dans une régression logistique sur trois niveaux. Les résultats confirment que les déterminants des diarrhées chez l'enfant appartiennent aux trois niveaux d'analyse et que les facteurs comportementaux et l'assainissement du quartier jouent un rôle prépondérant. Les résultats illustrent aussi l'utilité des LCA pour synthétiser plusieurs indicateurs, afin de créer une image causale intégrée, tout en utilisant des modèles statistiques parcimonieux.

Job satisfaction among Australian general practitioners and specialists

OBJECTIVE:
To identify patterns of job satisfaction among Australian doctors using latent class analysis, and to determine the relationships of these patterns to personal and professional characteristics so as to improve satisfaction and minimize medical wastage.
METHODS:
MABEL (Medicine in Australia: Balancing Employment and Life) data in 2011 were used. The study collected information on 5764 doctors about their job satisfaction, demographic characteristics, their health, country of medical training, opportunities for professional development and social interaction, taking time off work, views of patients' expectations, unpredictable working hours, hours worked per week, preference to reduce hours and intention to leave the medical workforce.
RESULTS:
Four latent classes of job satisfaction were identified: 5.8% had high job satisfaction; 19.4% had low satisfaction with working hours; 16.1% had high satisfaction with working hours but felt undervalued; and 6.5% had low job satisfaction. Low job satisfaction was associated with reporting poor health, having trained outside Australia, having poor opportunities for professional development and working longer hours. Low satisfaction was associated with a preference to reduce work hours and an intention to leave the medical workforce.
CONCLUSION:
To improve job satisfaction and minimize medical wastage, policies need to address needs of overseas trained doctors, provide continuing professional development and provide good health care for doctors.

The relationship between psychological distress and adolescent polydrug use.

Polydrug use is relatively common among adolescents. Psychological distress is associated with the use of specific drugs, and may be uniquely associated with polydrug use. The purpose of this study was to test the association of psychological distress with polydrug use using a large adolescent sample. The sample consisted of 10,273 students aged 12-17 years from the State of Victoria, Australia. Participants completed frequency measures of tobacco, alcohol, cannabis, inhalant, and other drug use in the past 30 days, and psychological distress. Control variables included age, gender, family socioeconomic status, school suspensions, academic failure, cultural background, and peer drug use. Drug-use classes were derived using latent-class analysis, then the association of psychological distress and controls with drug-use classes was modeled using multinomial ordinal regression. There were 3 distinct classes of drug use: no drug use (47.7%), mainly alcohol use (44.1%), and polydrug use (8.2%). Independent of all controls, psychological distress was higher in polydrug users and alcohol users, relative to nondrug users, and polydrug users reported more psychological distress than alcohol users. Psychological distress was most characteristic of polydrug users, and targeted prevention outcomes may be enhanced by a collateral focus on polydrug use and depression and/or anxiety.

Street characteristics preferred for transportation walking among older adults: a choice-based conjoint analysis with manipulated photographs

BACKGROUND: Knowledge about the relationships between micro-scale environmental factors and older adults' walking for transport is limited and inconsistent. This is probably due to methodological limitations, such as absence of an accurate neighborhood definition, lack of environmental heterogeneity, environmental co-variation, and recall bias. Furthermore, most previous studies are observational in nature. We aimed to address these limitations by investigating the effects of manipulating photographs on micro-scale environmental factors on the appeal of a street for older adults' transportation walking. Secondly, we used latent class analysis to examine whether subgroups could be identified that have different environmental preferences for transportation walking. Thirdly, we investigated whether these subgroups differed in socio-demographic, functional and psychosocial characteristics, current level of walking and environmental perceptions of their own street.

METHODS: Data were collected among 1131 Flemish older adults through an online (n = 940) or an interview version of the questionnaire (n = 191). This questionnaire included a choice-based conjoint exercise with manipulated photographs of a street. These manipulated photographs originated from one panoramic photograph of an existing street that was manipulated on nine environmental attributes. Participants chose which of two presented streets they would prefer to walk for transport.

RESULTS: In the total sample, sidewalk evenness had by far the greatest appeal for transportation walking. The other environmental attributes were less important. Four subgroups that differed in their environmental preferences for transportation walking were identified. In the two largest subgroups (representing 86% of the sample) sidewalk evenness was the most important environmental attribute. In the two smaller subgroups (each comprising 7% of the sample), traffic volume and speed limit were the most important environmental attributes for one, and the presence of vegetation and a bench were the most important environmental attributes for the other. This latter subgroup included a higher percentage of service flat residents than the other subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the provision of even sidewalks should be considered a priority when developing environmental interventions aiming to stimulate older adults' transportation walking. Natural experiments are needed to confirm whether our findings can be translated to real environments and actual transportation walking behavior.

A profile of four patterns of vulnerability to functional decline in older general medicine patients in Victoria, Australia: a cross sectional survey

BACKGROUND: There are limited published data reporting Australian hospitalized elders' vulnerability to functional decline to guide best practice interventions. The objectives of this study were to describe the prevalence of vulnerability to functional decline and explore profiles of vulnerability related to the performance of physical activity in a representative group of elders in a single centre in Victoria, Australia.

METHODS: A cross-sectional survey of patients aged ≥ 70 years (Mean age 82.4, SD 7 years) admitted to a general medical ward of an Australian tertiary-referral metropolitan public hospital from March 2010 to March 2011 (n = 526). Patients were screened using the Vulnerable Elders Survey (VES-13). Distinct typologies of physical difficulties were identified using latent class analysis.

RESULTS: Most elders scored ≥3/10 on the VES-13 and were rated vulnerable to functional decline (n = 480, 89.5 %). Four distinct classes of physical difficulty were identified: 1) Elders with higher physical functioning (n = 114, 21.7 %); 2) Ambulant elders with diminished strength (n = 24, 4.6 %); 3) Elders with impaired mobility, strength and ability to stoop (n = 267, 50.8 %) and 4) Elders with extensive physical impairment (n = 121, 23 %) Vulnerable elders were distributed through all classes.

CONCLUSIONS: Older general medicine patients in Victoria, Australia, are highly vulnerable to functional decline. We identified four distinct patterns of physical difficulties associated with vulnerability to functional decline that can inform health service planning, delivery and education.

Exploring the relationship between patterns of physical activity, sedentary behaviour and cardiometabolic health in middle-aged Irish adults

Background and Study Rationale Being physically active is a major contributor to both physical and mental health. More specifically, being physically active lowers risk of coronary heart disease, high blood pressure, stroke, metabolic syndrome (MetS), diabetes, certain cancers and depression, and increases cognitive function and wellbeing. The physiological mechanisms that occur in response to physical activity and the impact of total physical activity and sedentary behaviour on cardiometabolic health have been extensively studied. In contrast, limited data evaluating the specific effects of daily and weekly patterns of physical behaviour on cardiometabolic health exist. Additionally, no other study has examined interrelated patterns and minute-by-minute accumulation of physical behaviour throughout the day across week days in middle-aged adults. Study Aims The overarching aims of this thesis are firstly to describe patterns of behaviour throughout the day and week, and secondly to explore associations between these patterns and cardiometabolic health in a middle-aged population. The specific objectives are to: 1 Compare agreement between the International Physical Activity Questionnaire-Short Form (IPAQ-SF) and GENEActiv accelerometer-derived moderate-to-vigorous (MVPA) activity and secondly to compare their associations with a range of cardiometabolic and inflammatory markers in middle-aged adults. 2 Determine a suitable monitoring frame needed to reliably capture weekly, accelerometer-measured, activity in our population. 3 Identify groups of participants who have similar weekly patterns of physical behaviour, and determine if underlying patterns of cardiometabolic profiles exist among these groups. 4 Explore the variation of physical behaviour throughout the day to identify whether daily patterns of physical behaviour vary by cardiometabolic health. Methods All results in this thesis are based on data from a subsample of the Mitchelstown Cohort; 475 (46.1% males; mean aged 59.7±5.5 years) middle-aged Irish adults. Subjective physical activity levels were assessed using the IPAQ-SF. Participants wore the wrist GENEActiv accelerometer for 7 consecutive days. Data was collected at 100Hz and summarised into a signal magnitude vector using 60s epochs. Each time interval was categorised based on validated cut-offs. Data on cardiometabolic and inflammatory markers was collected according to standard protocol. Cardiometabolic outcomes (obesity, diabetes, hypertension and MetS) were defined according to internationally recognised definitions by World Health Organisation (WHO) and Irish Diabetes Federation (IDF). Results The results of the first chapter suggest that the IPAQ-SF lacks the sensitivity to assess patterning of activity and guideline adherence and assessing the relationship with cardiometabolic and inflammatory markers. Furthermore, GENEActiv accelerometer-derived MVPA appears to be better at detecting relationships with cardiometabolic and inflammatory markers. The second chapter examined variations in day-to-day physical behaviour levels between- and within-subjects. The main findings were that Sunday differed from all other days in the week for sedentary behaviour and light activity and that a large within-subject variation across days of the week for vigorous activity exists. Our data indicate that six days of monitoring, four weekdays plus Saturday and Sunday, are required to reliably estimate weekly habitual activity in all activity intensities. In the next chapter, latent profile analysis of weekly, interrelated patterns of physical behaviour identified four distinct physical behaviour patterns; Sedentary Group (15.9%), Sedentary; Lower Activity Group (28%), Sedentary; Higher Activity Group (44.2%) and a Physically Active Group (11.9%). Overall the Sedentary Group had poorer outcomes, characterised by unfavourable cardiometabolic and inflammatory profiles. The remaining classes were characterised by healthier cardiometabolic profiles with lower sedentary behaviour levels. The final chapter, which aimed to compare daily cumulative patterns of minute-by-minute physical behaviour intensities across those with and without MetS, revealed significant differences in weekday and weekend day MVPA. In particular, those with MetS start accumulating MVPA later in the day and for a shorted day period. Conclusion In conclusion, the results of this thesis add to the evidence base regards an optimal monitoring period for physical behaviour measurement to accurately capture weekly physical behaviour patterns. In addition, the results highlight whether weekly and daily distribution of activity is associated with cardiometabolic health and inflammatory profiles. The key findings of this thesis demonstrate the importance of daily and weekly physical behaviour patterning of activity intensity in the context of cardiometabolic health risk. In addition, these findings highlight the importance of using physical behaviour patterns of free-living adults observed in a population-based study to inform and aid health promotion activity programmes and primary care prevention and treatment strategies and development of future tailored physical activity based interventions.

Probabilistic subgroup identification using Bayesian finite mixture modelling : a case study in Parkinson’s disease phenotype identification

This article explores the use of probabilistic classification, namely finite mixture modelling, for identification of complex disease phenotypes, given cross-sectional data. In particular, if focuses on posterior probabilities of subgroup membership, a standard output of finite mixture modelling, and how the quantification of uncertainty in these probabilities can lead to more detailed analyses. Using a Bayesian approach, we describe two practical uses of this uncertainty: (i) as a means of describing a person’s membership to a single or multiple latent subgroups and (ii) as a means of describing identified subgroups by patient-centred covariates not included in model estimation. These proposed uses are demonstrated on a case study in Parkinson’s disease (PD), where latent subgroups are identified using multiple symptoms from the Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS).