Szimulációk és érzékenységvizsgálatok a magyar gazdaság egy középméretű makromodelljével = Simulations and sensitivity analyses with a medium-sized macro model of the Hungarian economy

A tanulmányban a Pénzügyminisztérium gazdaságpolitikai főosztálya és az MTA Közgazdaságtudományi Intézete által kifejlesztett középméretű negyedéves makrogazdasági modell segítségével elemezzük a magyar gazdaság legfontosabb mechanizmusait. A modellezés során követett alapelvek és a modell blokkjainak bemutatása után egy forgatókönyv-elemzés keretében vizsgáljuk a makrogazdasági és költségvetési folyamatokat befolyásoló főbb faktorok hatásait. A - tágan értelmezett - "bizonytalansági tényezőket" három csoportba soroljuk: megkülönböztetjük a külső környezet (például árfolyam) változását, a gazdasági szereplők viselkedésében rejlő bizonytalanságokat (például a bérigazodás sebességének vagy a fogyasztássimítás mértékének bizonytalanságát), valamint a gazdaságpolitikai lépéseket (például állami bérek emelését). Megmutatjuk, hogy e kockázatok makrokövetkezményei nem függetlenek egymástól, például egy árfolyamváltozás hatását befolyásolja a bérigazodás sebessége. ______ This paper analyses the most important mechanisms of the Hungarian economy using a medium-sized quarterly macroeconomic model developed jointly by the Economic Policy Department of the Ministry of Finance and the Institute of Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. After introducing the fundamental principles of modelling and the building blocks of the model investigated, within a scenario analysis, the authors present the effects of the main factors behind the macroeconomic and budgetary processes. The sources of uncertainty - defined in a broad sense - are categorized in three groups: change in the external environment (e.g. the exchange rate), uncertainties in the behav-iour of economic agents (e.g. in speed of wage adjustment or extent of consumption smoothing), and economic policy decisions (e.g. the increase in public sector wages). The macroeconomic consequences of these uncertainties are shown not to be independent of each other. For instance, the effects of an exchange rate shock are influenced by the speed of wage adjustment.

Chilling damage in a changing climate in coastal landscapes of the subtropical zone: a case study from south Florida

Extensive portions of the southern Everglades are characterized by series of elongated, raised peat ridges and tree islands oriented parallel to the predominant flow direction, separated by intervening sloughs. Tall herbs or woody species are associated with higher elevations and shorter emergent or floating species are associated with lower elevations. The organic soils in this “Ridge-and-Slough” landscape have been stable over millennia in many locations, but degrade over decades under altered hydrologic conditions. We examined soil, pore water, and leaf phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) distributions in six Ridge and Slough communities in Shark Slough, Everglades National Park. We found P enrichment to increase and N to decrease monotonically along a gradient from the most persistently flooded sloughs to rarely flooded ridge environments, with the most dramatic change associated with the transition from marsh to forest. Leaf N:P ratios indicated that the marsh communities were strongly P-limited, while data from several forest types suggested either N-limitation or co-limitation by N and P. Ground water stage in forests exhibited a daytime decrease and partial nighttime recovery during periods of surface exposure. The recovery phase suggested re-supply from adjacent flooded marshes or the underlying aquifer, and a strong hydrologic connection between ridge and slough. We therefore developed a simple steady-state model to explore a mechanism by which a phosphorus conveyor belt driven by both evapotranspiration and the regional flow gradient can contribute to the characteristic Ridge and Slough pattern. The model demonstrated that evapotranspiration sinks at higher elevations can draw in low concentration marsh waters, raising local soil and water P concentrations. Focusing of flow and nutrients at the evapotranspiration zone is not strong enough to overcome the regional gradient entirely, allowing the nutrient to spread downstream and creating an elongated concentration plume in the direction of flow. Our analyses suggest that autogenic processes involving the effects of initially small differences in topography, via their interactions with hydrology and nutrient availability, can produce persistent physiographic patterns in the organic sediments of the Everglades.

Chilling damage in a changing climate in coastal landscapes of the subtropical zone: a case study from south Florida

Freeze events significantly influence landscape structure and community composition along subtropical coastlines. This is particularly true in south Florida, where such disturbances have historically contributed to patch diversity within the mangrove forest, and have played a part in limiting its inland transgression. With projected increases in mean global temperatures, such instances are likely to become much less frequent in the region, contributing to a reduction in heterogeneity within the mangrove forest itself. To understand the process more clearly, we explored the dynamics of a Dwarf mangrove forest following two chilling events that produced freeze-like symptoms, i.e., leaf browning, desiccation, and mortality, and interpreted the resulting changes within the context of current winter temperatures and projected future scenarios. Structural effects from a 1996 chilling event were dramatic, with mortality and tissue damage concentrated among individuals comprising the Dwarf forest's low canopy. This disturbance promoted understory plant development and provided an opportunity for Laguncularia racemosa to share dominance with Rhizophora mangle. Mortality due to the less severe 2001 event was greatest in the understory, probably because recovery of the protective canopy following the earlier freeze was still incomplete. Stand dynamics were static over the same period in nearby unimpacted sites. The probability of reaching temperatures as low as those recorded at a nearby meteorological station (≤3 °C) under several warming scenarios was simulated by applying 1° incremental temperature increases to a model developed from a 42-year temperature record. According to the model, the frequency of similar chilling events decreased from once every 1.9 years at present to once every 3.4 and 32.5 years with 1 and 4 °C warming, respectively. The large decrease in the frequency of these events would eliminate an important mechanism that maintains Dwarf forest structure, and promotes compositional diversity.

Globalizing the Sculptural Landscapes of the Sarapis and Isis Cults in Hellenistic and Roman Greece

“Globalizing the Sculptural Landscape of Isis and Sarapis Cults in Roman Greece,” asks questions of cross-cultural exchange and viewership of sculptural assemblages set up in sanctuaries to the Egyptian gods. Focusing on cognitive dissonance, cultural imagining, and manipulations of time and space, I theorize ancient globalization as a set of loosely related processes that shifted a community's connections with place. My case studies range from the 3rd century BCE to the 2nd century CE, including sanctuaries at Rhodes, Thessaloniki, Dion, Marathon, Gortyna, and Delos. At these sites, devotees combined mainstream Greco-Roman sculptures, Egyptian imports, and locally produced imitations of Egyptian artifacts. In the last case, local sculptors represented Egyptian subjects with Greco-Roman naturalistic styles, creating an exoticized visual ideal that had both local and global resonance. My dissertation argues that the sculptural assemblages set up in Egyptian sanctuaries allowed each community to construct complex narratives about the nature of the Egyptian gods. Further, these images participated in a form of globalization that motivated local communities to adopt foreign gods and reinterpret them to suit local needs.

I begin my dissertation by examining how Isis and Sarapis were represented in Greece. My first chapter focuses on single statues of Egyptian gods, describing their iconographies and stylistic tendencies through examples from Corinth and Gortyna. By comparing Greek examples with images of Sarapis, Isis, and Harpokrates from around the Mediterranean, I demonstrate that Greek communities relied on globally available visual tropes rather than creating site or region-specific interpretations. In the next section, I examine what other sources viewers drew upon to inform their experiences of Egyptian sculpture. In Chapter 3, I survey the textual evidence for Isiac cult practice in Greece as a way to reconstruct devotees’ expectations of sculptures in sanctuary contexts. At the core of this analysis are Apuleius’ Metamorphoses and Plutarch’s De Iside et Osiride, which offer a Greek perspective on the cult’s theology. These literary works rely on a tradition of aretalogical inscriptions—long hymns produced from roughly the late 4th century B.C.E. into the 4th century C.E. that describe the expansive syncretistic powers of Isis, Sarapis, and Harpokrates. This chapter argues that the textual evidence suggests that devotees may have expected their images to be especially miraculous and likely to intervene on their behalf, particularly when involved in ritual activity inside the sanctuary.

In the final two chapters, I consider sculptural programs and ritual activity in concert with sanctuary architecture. My fourth chapter focuses on sanctuaries where large amounts of sculpture were found in underground water crypts: Thessaloniki and Rhodes. These groups of statues can be connected to a particular sanctuary space, but their precise display contexts are not known. By reading these images together, I argue that local communities used these globally available images to construct new interpretations of these gods, ones that explored the complex intersections of Egyptian, Greek, and Roman identities in a globalized Mediterranean. My final chapter explores the Egyptian sanctuary at Marathon, a site where exceptional preservation allows us to study how viewers would have experienced images in architectural space. Using the Isiac visuality established in Chapter 3, I reconstruct the viewer's experience, arguing that the patron, Herodes Atticus, intended his viewer to inform his experience with the complex theology of Middle Platonism and prevailing elite attitudes about Roman imperialism.

Throughout my dissertation, I diverge from traditional approaches to culture change that center on the concepts of Romanization and identity. In order to access local experiences of globalization, I examine viewership on a micro-scale. I argue that viewers brought their concerns about culture change into dialogue with elements of cult, social status, art, and text to create new interpretations of Roman sculpture sensitive to the challenges of a highly connected Mediterranean world. In turn, these transcultural perspectives motivated Isiac devotees to create assemblages that combined elements from multiple cultures. These expansive attitudes also inspired Isiac devotees to commission exoticized images that brought together disparate cultures and styles in an eclectic manner that mirrored the haphazard way that travel brought change to the Mediterranean world. My dissertation thus offers a more theoretically rigorous way of modeling culture change in antiquity that recognizes local communities’ agency in producing their cultural landscapes, reconciling some of the problems of scale that have plagued earlier approaches to provincial Roman art.

These case studies demonstrate that cultural anxieties played a key role in how viewers experienced artistic imagery in the Hellenistic and Roman Mediterranean. This dissertation thus offers a new component in our understanding of ancient visuality, and, in turn, a better way to analyze how local communities dealt with the rise of connectivity and globalization.

Bird predation experiments in tropical agroforestry landscapes of the Napu Valley in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia

We performed bird predation experiments (dummy experiments), using artificial prey and bird community data to investigate the importance of predator diversity vs. predator identity in cacao agroforestry landscapes. All sample sites were situated at the northern tip of Napu Valley in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. After an initial mapping of the study area, we selected 15 smallholder cacao plantations as sites for our exclosure experiments in March 2010. For our predation experiment, we selected 10 (out of 15) study sites and 5 cacao trees per site for the application of artificial prey for birds (dummy caterpillars made of plasticine). Our study trees (numbered from 1 to 5 per site) were randomly chosen and we kept spacing of at least two unmanipulated cacao trees between two study trees to avoid clumped distribution. To quantify both daytime/diurnal predation and night-time/nocturnal predation (e.g. birds vs. bats), we applied 7 caterpillar dummies on all study trees and controlled them for predation marks in the early morning (05:00-06:00 am), in the evening (17:00-18:00 pm) and in the early morning on the next day (completing one survey round). In total, we performed four survey rounds per study site (in June and July 2011). The caterpillar dummies were always applied in the same order and on three different parts of each cacao study tree: One 'control dummy' (located on first branching of the cacao tree); 3 'branch dummies' (located on one main branch coming from first branching; 20-25 cm between single dummies) and 3 'leaf dummies' (3 medium aged cacao trees adjacent to main branch were selected and single dummies placed in the center of each cacao leaf). The different positions were chosen to control for different foraging modes of predators (e.g. branch gleaners versus leaf gleaners). During day- and nighttime surveys, we controlled if the dummy caterpillars were still present in their original position, if they were absent and could not be relocated on the ground or if they were fallen to the ground, but could still be recorded. Eaten dummies were counted as 1 mark usually, except for those dummies, where two or more different kind of arthropods had eaten parts of the dummy (2 marks or more). Other predation marks were added to this number. For each dummy, we counted the total number of different predation marks. We focused on predation marks that could be identified with certainty (based on preliminary observations and/or literature): marks of birds, rodents and snails. Finally, we analysed the relationship of bird predation marks and bird community parameters (abundance vs. diversity), as well as effects of local and landscape management on the avian predation success.

The Impact on Canada of the Rise of the Chinese Economy: Good, Bad or Indifferent? (Working Paper 50)

From humble beginnings less than twenty years ago, the economic relationship between Canada and the Chinese has flourished so that China is now Canada’s second most important trading partner after the United States. The Chinese demand for Canada’s exports, in particular in the natural resource sectors, has been a clear win for Canada, especially during the recent Great Recession where demand from other countries dropped sharply. But other aspects of the relationship have led to suggestions of costs. Canada’s large trade deficit with China at least looks superficially as a drag on the Canadian economy. It has been suggested the greater exposure to a low cost producer has displaced Canadian production and jobs and lowered wages. We find that each argument for costs to the relationship ignores important factors. On balance we conclude the relationship has been good for Canada, and it could be even better in the future.

Cape Breton Provides Pointers for the Adjustment Programs Required by the Decline of the Old Economy (Working Paper 14)

The Cape Breton Development Corporation need not, should not, be dying in the way it is. “Devco” has been widely represented as a failure dragged out too long. In fact it had for a time considerable success in a role too difficult to be often attempted. The main failure was in the political will to stick to its purpose. This commentary is in three parts. The first, major section discusses the purpose of Devco and the policies that served the purpose quite well but were maintained for little more than a decade. It suggests that the benefits would have been greater if Devco had been started earlier in the period of postwar prosperity. The second section comments on the enfeeblement of Devco in the 1980s. The removal of its development function also weakened, and has eventually led to the abandonment of, Devco’s social purpose in the operation of coal mining. Third, a short epilogue pointing out that, while the Cape Breton case is extreme, there will be increasing need to moderate the socially disruptive consequences of accelerating economic change. There are lessons from the Devco experience: the longer remedial action is delayed, the more difficult and expensive it becomes, and the more necessary for its effectiveness is a steady political will.

Financialisation, Capital Accumulation and Economic Development : A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation of the Nigerian Economy

The primary focus of this study is to highlight those unobtrusive, yet fundamental, factors undermining economic development in Nigeria. To begin with, it posits that the decelerating pace of capital accumulation in Nigeria, which naturally occasions rising unemployment and poverty levels, and widening inequality gap, is the result of the ‘low possibility’ of capitalist enterprises in the country of earning an adequate rate of profit from their productive processes. In turn, the ‘low possibility’ is argued to be the result of the uneven development inherent in the modern capitalist structure, the high cost of capital and of production peculiar to Nigeria, and the ineffective demand for goods made in Nigeria: these elements are viewed as been precipitated by the contradictions of the contemporary political-economic arrangement that organises the Social Structures of Accumulation. For Nigeria to ‘develop’, it is contended that the unobtrusive elements inherent in the contradiction of the political-economic economic that undermine the capitalists’ ability to earn a commensurate rate of profit in the country needs to be fully addressed first. Furthermore, this study suggests that it is crucial the country embraces knowledge-based industrialisation if it is to achieve some form of ‘competitive advantage’ in the global market, which could enable its productive processes extract a commensurate level of profit from the market. To facilitate the knowledge-based industrialisation, the state should, not only create a conducive environment for industrial development but also play the lead role in transforming the peripheral and oil dependent economy to a knowledge-based economy by coordinating business organisations and investing in high-risk innovations.

The Ocean Economic Statistical System of China and Understanding of the Blue Economy

The ocean and its resources are increasingly seen as indispensable in addressing the multiple challenges the planet is facing in the decades to come. It has never been easy to quantify this particular sector of the economy, in any country, given the lack of a detailed, centralized data base with adequate specifics covering the necessary sectors, this article aims to compare the existing ocean economy statistical systems, especially Asia-Pacific, American and European countries, in order to overcome the deficiencies with regard to the diversity of definitions and statistical representations of ocean sectors, establish the standard statistical system and compile data for the global ocean economy.

The Role of the Ocean Economy in the National Income Accounts of Indonesia

This paper presents the role of the Ocean Economy in the National Income Accounts of Indonesia including the concept and methodology used to estimate the contribution of this ecosystem to Indonesian value added. Currently, the national income account of Indonesia only recognizes the fishery sector. Fishery activities have been considered as one of the sub-sectors of agricultural sector together with sub-sectors of farm food crops, plantation or non-food crops, forestry, and livestock. There are some drawbacks in the concept of national income accounts, since it follows the UN system of national accounts (SNA) that recognize only economic sectors or activities which produce the value added, while it does not recognize the ecosystems such as lakes and river ecosystems, forests as well as terrestrial and ocean ecosystems as production sectors. The present concept of the SNA produces an undervaluation of forest and ocean sectors, which in turn may direct the policy makers to have a tendency to deplete the forestry and fishery resources in order to increase the contribution of those two sectors to the national income accounts. Otherwise, the two sectors will be allocated small national budget for their operations. Therefore the paper concludes that a new concept of national income accounts based on ecosystem products and services to be developed, as a satellite account to the national income account is needed. Furthermore the new concept of national income account for the ocean economy should adopt the UN System of Environmental and Economic Accounts, which takes into account the extractive and non-extractive products as environmental and biological services in to the ocean income account. The new concept of ocean accounting based on both extractive and non-extractive products instead of only based on the extractive one which have market values may guarantee the sustainability of the ocean in particular and will be good for the whole economy of the country in generally. Hence the national income accounts of the ocean economy will show how the blue economy or the ocean economy really function as one of the important sectors for the whole economy of the country.

Measurement of the Ocean Economy From National Income Accounts to the Sustainable Blue Economy

The widespread efforts to incorporate the economic values of oceans into national income accounts have reached a stage where coordination of national efforts is desirable. A symposium held in 2015 began this process by bringing together representatives from ten countries. The symposium concluded that a definition of core ocean industries was possible but beyond that core the definition of ocean industries is in flux. Better coordination of ocean income accounts will require addressing issues of aggregation, geography, partial ocean industries, confidential, and imputation is also needed. Beyond the standard national income accounts, a need to incorporate environmental resource and ecosystem service values to gain a complete picture of the economic role of the oceans was identified. The U.N. System of Environmental and Economic Accounts and the Experimental Ecosystem Service Accounts provide frameworks for this expansion. This will require the development of physical accounts of environmental assets linked to the economic accounts as well as the adaptation of transaction and welfare based economic valuation methods to environmental resources and ecosystem services. The future development of ocean economic data is most likely to require cooperative efforts at development of metadata standards and the use of multiple platforms of opportunity created by policy analysis, economic development, and conservation projects to both collect new economic data and to sustain ocean economy data collection into the future by building capacity in economic data collection and use..

Nanostructured catalysts for the development of the hydrogen economy

La catalyse joue un rôle essentiel dans de nombreuses applications industrielles telles que les industries pétrochimique et biochimique, ainsi que dans la production de polymères et pour la protection de l’environnement. La conception et la fabrication de catalyseurs efficaces et rentables est une étape importante pour résoudre un certain nombre de problèmes des nouvelles technologies de conversion chimique et de stockage de l’énergie. L’objectif de cette thèse est le développement de voies de synthèse efficaces et simples pour fabriquer des catalyseurs performants à base de métaux non nobles et d’examiner les aspects fondamentaux concernant la relation entre structure/composition et performance catalytique, notamment dans des processus liés à la production et au stockage de l’hydrogène. Dans un premier temps, une série d’oxydes métalliques mixtes (Cu/CeO2, CuFe/CeO2, CuCo/CeO2, CuFe2O4, NiFe2O4) nanostructurés et poreux ont été synthétisés grâce à une méthode améliorée de nanocasting. Les matériaux Cu/CeO2 obtenus, dont la composition et la structure poreuse peuvent être contrôlées, ont ensuite été testés pour l’oxydation préférentielle du CO dans un flux d’hydrogène dans le but d’obtenir un combustible hydrogène de haute pureté. Les catalyseurs synthétisés présentent une activité et une sélectivité élevées lors de l’oxydation sélective du CO en CO2. Concernant la question du stockage d’hydrogène, une voie de synthèse a été trouvée pour le composét mixte CuO-NiO, démontrant une excellente performance catalytique comparable aux catalyseurs à base de métaux nobles pour la production d’hydrogène à partir de l’ammoniaborane (aussi appelé borazane). L’activité catalytique du catalyseur étudié dans cette réaction est fortement influencée par la nature des précurseurs métalliques, la composition et la température de traitement thermique utilisées pour la préparation du catalyseur. Enfin, des catalyseurs de Cu-Ni supportés sur silice colloïdale ou sur des particules de carbone, ayant une composition et une taille variable, ont été synthétisés par un simple procédé d’imprégnation. Les catalyseurs supportés sur carbone sont stables et très actifs à la fois dans l’hydrolyse du borazane et la décomposition de l’hydrazine aqueuse pour la production d’hydrogène. Il a été démontré qu’un catalyseur optimal peut être obtenu par le contrôle de l’effet bi-métallique, l’interaction métal-support, et la taille des particules de métal.

‘Mo Rùn am Fearann’ – ‘My Love is the Land’: Gaelic landscapes of the 18th and 19th centuries

The period of the 18th and 19th centuries was one of great change in the Highlands and Islands of Scotland. Improvement, the Jacobite Rebellions, and the Clearances transformed its communities and landscapes. These events have rightly been a focus of research. However, archaeological approaches have often sought simply to illustrate these processes, rather than create new narratives about life in the past. The resulting picture of the period can over-emphasise economic change whilst failing to reflect the richness and variety of everyday life. This thesis aims to suggest a new approach to the place and period, one which addresses matters often ignored in previous work. Whilst it has an archaeological sensibility, it draws on ideas from outside archaeology, such as landscape theory and on Gaelic oral tradition, an underused resource, to create a novel and broad-based approach to the period. An important part of the method is a synchronic approach that seeks to reconstruct the experience of the landscape at very particular times, engaging fully with the everyday experience of landscape rather than grand historical narratives. Two Hebridean case studies are utilised: Hiort (St Kilda) and Loch Aoineart, South Uist. Thematic discussions drawn from these landscapes are intended as critical assessments of the efficacy of the approach, as well as new narratives about life in the past in themselves. The thesis concludes by comparing the two case studies, reflecting on the merits of the approach, discussing recurrent themes in the work, and considering its wider context and implications. It is concluded that taking a novel approach to the case study landscapes can create narratives that often contrast or expand upon those produced by previous scholars, allow for a more detailed consideration of everyday life in the period, and open up new areas for archaeological enquiry. The extensive and critical use of evidence from Gaelic oral tradition is highlighted as crucial in understanding life and society in the period. The thesis questions the utility of grand historical narratives as a framework for archaeological study of post-medieval Gaeldom and suggests that our understanding of the past is best served by approaching the evidence in ways which allows for many different voices and stories from the past to emerge.

Credit spreads and monetary policy in a small open economy: an analysis of the colombian economy

This paper estimates Bejarano and Charry (2014)’s small open economy with financial frictions model for the Colombian economy using Bayesian estimation techniques. Additionally, I compute the welfare gains of implementing an optimal response to credit spreads into an augmented Taylor rule. The main result is that a reaction to credit spreads does not imply significant welfare gains unless the economic disturbances increases its volatility, like the disruption implied by a financial crisis. Otherwise its impact over the macroeconomic variables is null.