Are combination forecasts of S&P 500 volatility statistically superior?

Forecasting volatility has received a great deal of research attention, with the relative performances of econometric model based and option implied volatility forecasts often being considered. While many studies find that implied volatility is the pre-ferred approach, a number of issues remain unresolved, including the relative merit of combining forecasts and whether the relative performances of various forecasts are statistically different. By utilising recent econometric advances, this paper considers whether combination forecasts of S&P 500 volatility are statistically superior to a wide range of model based forecasts and implied volatility. It is found that a combination of model based forecasts is the dominant approach, indicating that the implied volatility cannot simply be viewed as a combination of various model based forecasts. Therefore, while often viewed as a superior volatility forecast, the implied volatility is in fact an inferior forecast of S&P 500 volatility relative to model-based forecasts.

Quantitative PCR assay of sewage-associated Bacteroides markers to assess sewage pollution in an urban lake in Dhaka, Bangladesh

This paper aimed to assess the magnitude of sewage pollution in an urban lake in Dhaka, Bangladesh by using Quantitative PCR (qPCR) of sewage-associated Bacteroides HF183 markers. PCR was also used for the quantitative detection of ruminant wastewater-associated CF128 markers along with the enumeration of traditional fecal indicator bacteria, namely, enterococci. The number of enterococci in lake water samples ranged from 1.1 x 104 to 1.9 x 105 CFU/100 ml of water. From the 20 water samples tested, 14 (70%) and 7 (35%) were PCR positive for the HF183 and CF128 markers, respectively. The numbers of the HF183 and CF128 markers in lake water samples were 3.9 x 104 to 6.3 × 107 and 9.3 x 103 to 6.3 x 105 genomic units (GU)/100 ml of water, respectively. The high numbers of enterococci and the HF183 markers indicate sewage pollution and potential health risks to those who use the lake water for non-potable purposes such as bathing and washing clothes. This is the first study that investigated the presence of microbial source tracking (MST) markers in Dhaka, Bangladesh where diarrhoeal diseases is one of the major causes of childhood mortality. The molecular assay as used in this study can provide valuable information on the extent of sewage pollution, thus facilitating the development of robust strategies to minimise potential health risks.

Statistical phylogeographic tests of competing 'Lake Carpentaria hypotheses' in the mouth-brooding freshwater fish, Glossamia aprion (Apogonidae)

Glacial cycles during the Pleistocene reduced sea levels and created new land connections in northern Australia, where many currently isolated rivers also became connected via an extensive paleo-lake system, 'Lake Carpentaria'. However, the most recent period during which populations of freshwater species were connected by gene flow across Lake Carpentaria is debated: various 'Lake Carpentaria hypotheses' have been proposed. Here, we used a statistical phylogeographic approach to assess the timing of past population connectivity across the Carpentaria region in the obligate freshwater fish, Glossamia aprion. Results for this species indicate that the most recent period of genetic exchange across the Carpentaria region coincided with the mid- to late Pleistocene, a result shown previously for other freshwater and diadromous species. Based on these findings and published studies for various freshwater, diadromous and marine species, we propose a set of 'Lake Carpentaria' hypotheses to explain past population connectivity in aquatic species: (1) strictly freshwater species had widespread gene flow in the mid- to late Pleistocene before the last glacial maximum; (2) marine species were subdivided into eastern and western populations by land during Pleistocene glacial phases; and (3) past connectivity in diadromous species reflects the relative strength of their marine affinity.

The Lake of the Cemetery

This is brief paper written in the "here and now" as the event happened and describes the early morning journey of the author by balsa wood raft to the breeding colony of greater flamingoes (Phoenicopterus ruber) on the island of Isabela in the Galapagos archipelago in 1976. Isabela comprises five volcanoes in a north south alignment. The Lake of the Cemetary is close to the site of a former penal colony which is now the only village on the island. The ethological observations at the bird colony are discussed.

Realizing 'four comforts' in the urban fringe : the case of White Horse Lake Eco-creative City Project, Hangzhou, China

This article examines a cultural and creative industries park project – the White Horse Lake Ecocreative City on land outside the urban centre of Hangzhou, China, which uses an imaginary rural lifestyle as its key attraction. By analysing government policies and development plans, and through interviews with initiators, managers and creative practitioners, the article first assesses the geographical position, that is, the impact of locality with regard to both hard and soft infrastructure of the project; it then examines the synergies and tensions embedded in the strategic goals, that is, to build the right city for ‘four comforts’ (siyi, 四宜) – for residence, for business, for travel and for culture. The article concludes that Chinese-style cultural conversion remains locked in a top-down ideological framework, one that rural residents and the new ‘creative class’ are expected to respect.

Superior piezoelectric composite films : taking advantage of carbon nanomaterials

Piezoelectric composites comprising an active phase of ferroelectric ceramic and a polymer matrix have recently attracted numerous sensory applications. However, it remains a major challenge to further improve their electromechanical response for advanced applications such as precision control and monitoring systems. We hereby investigated the incorporation of graphene platelets (GnPs) and multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWNTs), each with various weight fractions, into PZT (lead zirconate titanate)/epoxy composites to produce three-phase nanocomposites. The nanocomposite films show markedly improved piezoelectric coefficients and electromechanical responses (50%) besides an enhancement of ~200% in stiffness. Carbon nanomaterials strengthened the impact of electric field on the PZT particles by appropriately raising the electrical conductivity of epoxy. GnPs have been proved far more promising in improving the poling behavior and dynamic response than MWNTs. The superior dynamic sensitivity of GnP-reinforced composite may be caused by GnPs’ high load transfer efficiency arising from their two-dimensional geometry and good compatibility with the matrix. Reduced acoustic impedance mismatch resulted from the improved thermal conductance may also contribute to the higher sensitivity of GnP-reinforced composite. This research pointed out the potential of employing GnPs to develop highly sensitive piezoelectric composites for sensing applications.

Experimental study on the fire performance of superior LSF wall systems

Load bearing Light Gauge Steel Frame (LSF) walls are commonly made of conventional lipped channel sections and gypsum plasterboards. Recently, innovative steel sections such as hollow flange channel sections have been proposed as studs in LSF wall frames with a view to improve their fire resistance ratings. A series of full scale fire tests was then undertaken to investigate the fire performance of the new LSF wall systems under standard fire conditions. Test wall frames made of hollow flange section studs were lined with fire resistant gypsum plasterboards on both sides, and were subjected to increasing temperatures as given by the standard fire curve on one side. Both uninsulated and cavity insulated walls were tested with varying load ratios from 0.2 to 0.6. This paper presents the details of this experimental study on the fire performance of LSF walls and the results. Test results showed that the walls made of the new hollow flange channel section studs have a superior fire performance in comparison to that of lipped channel section stud walls. They also showed that the fire performance of cavity insulated walls was inferior to that of uninsulated walls. The reasons for this fire behaviour are described in this paper.