O Paleolítico da jazida de Linda a Pastora

Separata da obra: "Da Pré-história à história : homenagem a Octávio da Veiga Ferreira"

Survival Extrapolation In The Presence Of Cause Specific Hazards.

Health economic evaluations require estimates of expected survival from patients receiving different interventions, often over a lifetime. However, data on the patients of interest are typically only available for a much shorter follow-up time, from randomised trials or cohorts. Previous work showed how to use general population mortality to improve extrapolations of the short-term data, assuming a constant additive or multiplicative effect on the hazards for all-cause mortality for study patients relative to the general population. A more plausible assumption may be a constant effect on the hazard for the specific cause of death targeted by the treatments. To address this problem, we use independent parametric survival models for cause-specific mortality among the general population. Because causes of death are unobserved for the patients of interest, a polyhazard model is used to express their all-cause mortality as a sum of latent cause-specific hazards. Assuming proportional cause-specific hazards between the general and study populations then allows us to extrapolate mortality of the patients of interest to the long term. A Bayesian framework is used to jointly model all sources of data. By simulation, we show that ignoring cause-specific hazards leads to biased estimates of mean survival when the proportion of deaths due to the cause of interest changes through time. The methods are applied to an evaluation of implantable cardioverter defibrillators for the prevention of sudden cardiac death among patients with cardiac arrhythmia. After accounting for cause-specific mortality, substantial differences are seen in estimates of life years gained from implantable cardioverter defibrillators.

Brazilian multicentre study of common mental disorders in primary care: rates and related social and demographic factors

Mental health problems are common in primary health care, particularly anxiety and depression. This study aims to estimate the prevalence of common mental disorders and their associations with socio-demographic characteristics in primary care in Brazil (Family Health Strategy). It involved a multicenter cross-sectional study with patients from Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Fortaleza (Ceará State) and Porto Alegre (Rio Grande do Sul State), assessed using the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HAD). The rate of mental disorders in patients from Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Fortaleza and Porto Alegre were found to be, respectively, 51.9%, 53.3%, 64.3% and 57.7% with significant differences between Porto Alegre and Fortaleza compared to Rio de Janeiro after adjusting for confounders. Prevalence proportions of mental problems were especially common for females, the unemployed, those with less education and those with lower incomes. In the context of the Brazilian government's moves towards developing primary health care and reorganizing mental health policies it is relevant to consider common mental disorders as a priority alongside other chronic health conditions.

Effects of naps at work on the sleepiness of 12-hour night shift nursing personnel

Background and objective: The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the effects of a nap at work on the sleepiness of 12-hour, night-shift (registered and assistant) nursing personnel.Methods: Twelve nurses filled out daily logs, the Karolinska Sleepiness Scale (KS), and wore wrist actigraphs for two periods of four continuous days.Results: Mean nap duration during the night shifts was 138.3 (SD+39.8) minutes. The mean sleepiness level assessed by the KS score was lower, 3.3 (SD±1.6), when the nap was taken during the first span (00:01 - 03:00h) of the night shift, compared with 6.6 (SD±1.0) when there was no nap. The mean sleepiness level assessed by the KS score was also lower, 3.6 (SD±0.9), when the nap was taken during the second span (03:01 - 06:00h) of the night shift, compared with 7.0 (SD±1.1) when there was no nap. Thus, napping either during the first or second part of the night shift reduces sleepiness of 12-hour, night-shift nursing personnel. Moreover, the mean duration of the first sleep episode after night work was longer in those who did not nap than in those who did. Conclusions: The results of this study show that napping during the 12-hour, night-shift results in less sleepiness at work and less need for recovery sleep after work

Aspirin Treatment of Mice Infected with Trypanosoma cruzi and Implications for the Pathogenesis of Chagas Disease

Chagas disease, caused by infection with Trypanosoma cruzi, is an important cause of cardiovascular disease. It is increasingly clear that parasite-derived prostaglandins potently modulate host response and disease progression. Here, we report that treatment of experimental T. cruzi infection (Brazil strain) beginning 5 days post infection (dpi) with aspirin (ASA) increased mortality (2-fold) and parasitemia (12-fold). However, there were no differences regarding histopathology or cardiac structure or function. Delayed treatment with ASA (20 mg/kg) beginning 60 dpi did not increase parasitemia or mortality but improved ejection fraction. ASA treatment diminished the profile of parasite-and host-derived circulating prostaglandins in infected mice. To distinguish the effects of ASA on the parasite and host bio-synthetic pathways we infected cyclooxygenase-1 (COX-1) null mice with the Brazil-strain of T. cruzi. Infected COX-1 null mice displayed a reduction in circulating levels of thromboxane (TX)A(2) and prostaglandin (PG)F(2 alpha). Parasitemia was increased in COX-1 null mice compared with parasitemia and mortality in ASA-treated infected mice indicating the effects of ASA on mortality potentially had little to do with inhibition of prostaglandin metabolism. Expression of SOCS-2 was enhanced, and TRAF6 and TNF alpha reduced, in the spleens of infected ASA-treated mice. Ablation of the initial innate response to infection may cause the increased mortality in ASA-treated mice as the host likely succumbs more quickly without the initiation of the ""cytokine storm'' during acute infection. We conclude that ASA, through both COX inhibition and other ""off-target'' effects, modulates the progression of acute and chronic Chagas disease. Thus, eicosanoids present during acute infection may act as immunomodulators aiding the transition to and maintenance of the chronic phase of the disease. A deeper understanding of the mechanism of ASA action may provide clues to the differences between host response in the acute and chronic T. cruzi infection.

Amazon deforestation alters small stream structure, nitrogen biogeochemistry and connectivity to larger rivers

Human activities that modify land cover can alter the structure and biogeochemistry of small streams but these effects are poorly known over large regions of the humid tropics where rates of forest clearing are high. We examined how conversion of Amazon lowland tropical forest to cattle pasture influenced the physical and chemical structure, organic matter stocks and N cycling of small streams. We combined a regional ground survey of small streams with an intensive study of nutrient cycling using (15)N additions in three representative streams: a second-order forest stream, a second-order pasture stream and a third-order pasture stream. These three streams were within several km of each other and on similar soils. Replacement of forest with pasture decreased stream habitat complexity by changing streams from run and pool channels with forest leaf detritus (50% cover) to grass-filled (63% cover) channel with runs of slow-moving water. In the survey, pasture streams consistently had lower concentrations of dissolved oxygen and nitrate (NO(3) (-)) compared with similar-sized forest streams. Stable isotope additions revealed that second-order pasture stream had a shorter NH(4) (+) uptake length, higher uptake rates into organic matter components and a shorter (15)NH(4) (+) residence time than the second-order forest stream or the third-order pasture stream. Nitrification was significant in the forest stream (19% of the added (15)NH(4) (+)) but not in the second-order pasture (0%) or third-order (6%) pasture stream. The forest stream retained 7% of added (15)N in organic matter compartments and exported 53% ((15)NH(4) (+) = 34%; (15)NO(3) (-) = 19%). In contrast, the second-order pasture stream retained 75% of added (15)N, predominantly in grasses (69%) and exported only 4% as (15)NH(4) (+). The fate of tracer (15)N in the third-order pasture stream more closely resembled that in the forest stream, with 5% of added N retained and 26% exported ((15)NH(4) (+) = 9%; (15)NO(3) (-) = 6%). These findings indicate that the widespread infilling by grass in small streams in areas deforested for pasture greatly increases the retention of inorganic N in the first- and second-order streams, which make up roughly three-fourths of total stream channel length in Amazon basin watersheds. The importance of this phenomenon and its effect on N transport to larger rivers across the larger areas of the Amazon Basin will depend on better evaluation of both the extent and the scale at which stream infilling by grass occurs, but our analysis suggests the phenomenon is widespread.

Runoff sources and land cover change in the Amazon: an end-member mixing analysis from small watersheds

The flowpaths by which water moves from watersheds to streams has important consequences for the runoff dynamics and biogeochemistry of surface waters in the Amazon Basin. The clearing of Amazon forest to cattle pasture has the potential to change runoff sources to streams by shifting runoff to more surficial flow pathways. We applied end-member mixing analysis (EMMA) to 10 small watersheds throughout the Amazon in which solute composition of streamwater and groundwater, overland flow, soil solution, throughfall and rainwater were measured, largely as part of the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia. We found a range in the extent to which streamwater samples fell within the mixing space determined by potential flowpath end-members, suggesting that some water sources to streams were not sampled. The contribution of overland flow as a source of stream flow was greater in pasture watersheds than in forest watersheds of comparable size. Increases in overland flow contribution to pasture streams ranged in some cases from 0% in forest to 27-28% in pasture and were broadly consistent with results from hydrometric sampling of Amazon forest and pasture watersheds that indicate 17- to 18-fold increase in the overland flow contribution to stream flow in pastures. In forest, overland flow was an important contribution to stream flow (45-57%) in ephemeral streams where flows were dominated by stormflow. Overland flow contribution to stream flow decreased in importance with increasing watershed area, from 21 to 57% in forest and 60-89% in pasture watersheds of less than 10 ha to 0% in forest and 27-28% in pastures in watersheds greater than 100 ha. Soil solution contributions to stream flow were similar across watershed area and groundwater inputs generally increased in proportion to decreases in overland flow. Application of EMMA across multiple watersheds indicated patterns across gradients of stream size and land cover that were consistent with patterns determined by detailed hydrometric sampling.

Treatment of vitamin D deficiency increases lower limb muscle strength in institutionalized older people independently of regular physical activity: a randomized double-blind controlled trial

Aims: To investigate the effects of a 6-month supplementation with calcium and cholecalciferol on biochemical parameters and muscle strength of institutionalized elderly. Methods: This prospective, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized trial included Brazilian institutionalized people 6 60 years of age receiving a 6-month supplementation ( December to May) of daily calcium plus monthly placebo (calcium/placebo group) or daily calcium plus oral cholecalciferol (150,000 IU once a month during the first 2 months, followed by 90,000 IU once a month for the last 4 months; calcium/vitamin D group). Fasting blood samples for 25-(OH) D, PTH and calcium determination were collected (n = 56) and muscle tests were performed ( n = 46) to measure the strength of hip flexors (SHF) and knee extensors (SKE) before ( baseline) and after the 6-month intervention ( 6 months). Results: Due to seasonal variations, serum 25( OH) D significantly enhanced in both groups after treatment, but the calcium/vitamin D group had significantly higher 25-(OH) D levels than the calcium/placebo group (84 vs. 33%, respectively; p < 0.0001). No cases of hypercalcemia were observed. While the calcium/placebo group showed no improvement in SHF and SKE at 6 months (p = 0.93 and p = 0.61, respectively), SHF was increased in the calcium/vitamin D group by 16.4% (p = 0.0001) and SKE by 24.6% (p = 0.0007). Conclusions: The suggested cholecalciferol supplementation was safe and efficient in enhancing 25(OH)D levels and lower limb muscle strength in the elderly, in the absence of any regular physical exercise practice. Copyright (C) 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel

Control charts for individual observations of a bivariate Poisson process

In this paper, three single-control charts are proposed to monitor individual observations of a bivariate Poisson process. The specified false-alarm risk, their control limits, and ARLs were determined to compare their performances for different types and sizes of shifts. In most of the cases, the single charts presented better performance rather than two separate control charts ( one for each quality characteristic). A numerical example illustrates the proposed control charts.

Collaboration intensity in the Brazilian supermarket retail chain

Purpose - This paper seeks to identify collaboration elements and evaluate their intensity in the Brazilian supermarket retail chain, especially the manufacturer-retailer channel. Design/methodology/approach - A structured questionnaire was elaborated and applied to 125 representatives from suppliers of large supermarket chains. Statistical methods including multivariate analysis were employed. Variables were grouped and composed into five indicators (joint actions, information sharing, interpersonal integration, gains and cost sharing, and strategic integration) to assess the degree of collaboration. Findings - The analyses showed that the interviewees considered interpersonal integration to be of greater importance to collaboration intensity than the other integration factors, such as gain or cost sharing or even strategic integration. Research limitations/implications - The research was conducted solely from the point of view of the industries that supply the large retail networks. The interviews were not conducted in pairs; that is, there was no application of one questionnaire to the retail network and another to the partner industry. Practical implications - Companies should invest in conducting periodic meetings with their partners to increase collaboration intensity, and should carry out technical visits to learn about their partners` logistic reality and thus make better operational decisions. Originality/value - The paper reveals which indicators produce greater collaboration intensity, and thus those that are more relevant to more efficient logistics management.

Diagnostic errors and repetitive sequential classifications in on-line process control by attributes

The procedure of on-line process control by attributes, known as Taguchi`s on-line process control, consists of inspecting the mth item (a single item) at every m produced items and deciding, at each inspection, whether the fraction of conforming items was reduced or not. If the inspected item is nonconforming, the production is stopped for adjustment. As the inspection system can be subject to diagnosis errors, one develops a probabilistic model that classifies repeatedly the examined item until a conforming or b non-conforming classification is observed. The first event that occurs (a conforming classifications or b non-conforming classifications) determines the final classification of the examined item. Proprieties of an ergodic Markov chain were used to get the expression of average cost of the system of control, which can be optimized by three parameters: the sampling interval of the inspections (m); the number of repeated conforming classifications (a); and the number of repeated non-conforming classifications (b). The optimum design is compared with two alternative approaches: the first one consists of a simple preventive policy. The production system is adjusted at every n produced items (no inspection is performed). The second classifies the examined item repeatedly r (fixed) times and considers it conforming if most classification results are conforming. Results indicate that the current proposal performs better than the procedure that fixes the number of repeated classifications and classifies the examined item as conforming if most classifications were conforming. On the other hand, the preventive policy can be averagely the most economical alternative rather than those ones that require inspection depending on the degree of errors and costs. A numerical example illustrates the proposed procedure. (C) 2009 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Effects of the preventive and corrective adjustments in economical designs for online process control for attributes with misclassification errors

The procedure for online process control by attributes consists of inspecting a single item at every m produced items. It is decided on the basis of the inspection result whether the process is in-control (the conforming fraction is stable) or out-of-control (the conforming fraction is decreased, for example). Most articles about online process control have cited the stoppage of the production process for an adjustment when the inspected item is non-conforming (then the production is restarted in-control, here denominated as corrective adjustment). Moreover, the articles related to this subject do not present semi-economical designs (which may yield high quantities of non-conforming items), as they do not include a policy of preventive adjustments (in such case no item is inspected), which can be more economical, mainly if the inspected item can be misclassified. In this article, the possibility of preventive or corrective adjustments in the process is decided at every m produced item. If a preventive adjustment is decided upon, then no item is inspected. On the contrary, the m-th item is inspected; if it conforms, the production goes on, otherwise, an adjustment takes place and the process restarts in-control. This approach is economically feasible for some practical situations and the parameters of the proposed procedure are determined minimizing an average cost function subject to some statistical restrictions (for example, to assure a minimal levelfixed in advanceof conforming items in the production process). Numerical examples illustrate the proposal.