Climate change and global responsibility - the role of energy consumption, GDP and CO2 emissions

Climate change is one of the biggest challenges faced by this generation. Despite being the single most important environmental challenge facing the planet and despite over two decades of international climate negotiations, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue to rise. By the middle of this century, GHGs must be reduced by as much as 40-70% if dangerous climate change is to be avoided. In the Kyoto Protocol no quantitative emission limitation and reduction commitments were placed on the developing countries. For the planning of the future commitments period and possible participation of developing countries, information of the functioning of the energy systems, CO2 emissions development in different sectors, energy use and technological development in developing countries is essential. In addition to the per capita emissions, the efficiency of the energy system in relation to GHG emissions is crucial for the decision of future long-term burden sharing between countries. Country’s future development of CO2 emissions can be defined by the estimated CO2 intensity of the future and the estimated GDP growth. The changes in CO2 intensity depend on several factors, but generally developed countries’ intensity has been increasing in the industrialization phase and decreasing when their economy shifts more towards the system dominated by the service sector. The level of the CO2 intensity depends by a large extent on the production structure and the energy sources that are used. Currently one of the most urgent issues regarding global climate change is to decide the future of the Kyoto Protocol. Negotiations on this topic have already been initiated, with the aim of being finalised by the 2015. This thesis provides insights into the various approaches that can be used to characterise the concept of comparable efforts for developing countries in a future international climate agreement. The thesis examines the post-Kyoto burden sharing questions for developing countries using the contraction and convergence model, which is one approach that has been proposed to allocate commitments regarding future GHG emissions mitigation. This new approach is a practical tool for the evaluation of the Kyoto climate policy process and global climate change negotiations from the perspective of the developing countries.

Support for renewable energy and WTO Law : the actionability of Ontario and Québec renewable energy support mechanisms

Le Traité de Marrakech stipule que le commerce et le développement économique devraient être orientés de manière à permettre l’utilisation optimale des ressources mondiales, conformément à l’objectif de développement durable. Combiné aux dispositions du Protocole de Kyoto et du Traité de Copenhague, les gouvernements poursuivent de politiques nationales favorisant les producteurs nationaux au détriment des étrangers. Cette mémoire propose une analyse des règles de l’OMC, dans le but de déterminer les mesures disciplinaires possibles contre le Canada à l'égard de ses mécanismes de support de l’énergie renouvelable. Une analyse des règles énoncées dans le GATT, l’Accord sur les subventions et les mesures compensatoires et divers accords multilatéraux conclus dans le cadre de l’OMC permet de déterminer si elles pourraient s’appliquer aux mécanismes de support de l’énergie renouvelable. Une analyse des programmes du Québec et de l’Ontario permet une prise de position quant à leur conformité aux règles commerciales de l’OMC.

El mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio : oportunidades de Desarrollo Sostenible para Países en Desarrollo en el Protocolo de Kioto. Caso Colombia como posible potencia continental ambiental

El Cambio Climático y los Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio (MDL) en Colombia: Con el protocolo de Kyoto nacen los Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio, los cuales posibilitan a los países en desarrollo el generar cambios en los modelos de producción de las industrias altamente contaminantes por producciones limpias, obteniendo beneficios adicionales por la comercialización de los títulos de Reducciones Certificadas de las Emisiones (RCE). Nuestro país, tiene un potencial importante para fomentar el desarrollo de proyectos MDL con lo cuál puede aumentar su capacidad de negociación frente a políticas ambientales internacionales, contribuyendo al incremento del comercio exterior colombiano.

Análisis del Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio como instrumento útil de cooperación internacional en el marco del Cambio Climático, caso de estudio Colombia periodo 2004-2009

Los problemas ambientales causados por las actividades humanas han generado la reciente preocupación sobre Cambio Climático en el Sistema Internacional. Este tema ha adquirido una gran importancia en la agenda de cooperación, ya que países como Colombia implementan desde hace algún tiempo instrumentos de mitigación como lo es el Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio.

Análisis de los limites de la institucionalidad internacional establecida bajo el protocolo de Kioto para enfrentar la problematica del cambio climático a partir del estudio del funcionamiento del mecanismo de desarrollo limpio (MDL), desde su entrada en vigor en los países no anexo I

Las negociaciones del cambio climático no han arrojado resultados contundentes para afrontar la problemática que trata. El estudio de la institucionalidad establecida en el régimen, específicamente en el Protocolo de Kioto, para efectos de las negociaciones y de la lucha directa contra la problemática del cambio climático muestra señales de inoperancia. El GTE-PK no ha logrado concluir satisfactoriamente con su mandato y las negociaciones parecen estancadas por la falta de voluntad para negociar por parte de los grupos de negociación tanto de los Países Parte del Anexo I como de los No Anexo I. Lo anterior, no permite dar claridad sobre el futuro del Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio. Sin embargo, su institucionalidad no ha sido del todo un fracaso ya que la Junta Ejecutiva del Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio (JE) ha logrado registrar una gran cantidad de proyectos MDL y ha permitido lograr importantes avances en transferencia de tecnología verde entre los países Parte. En este trabajo se analizarán las dinámicas de las negociaciones en el régimen del cambio climático y su injerencia en la institucionalidad establecida bajo el Protocolo de Kioto.

Análisis de la posición de Estados Unidos y China como bloque frente a la Negociación sobre políticas ambientales en el marco del Protocolo de Kioto

Estados Unidos y China son dos países que participan en el escenario internacional como polos opuestos en los temas más importantes de la agenda internacional. En la participación de las negociaciones del Protocolo de Kioto entorpecen el destino de este acuerdo. Con diferentes posturas y sin ponerse de acuerdo, son el bloque frente a estas negociaciones que pretenden mejorar las condiciones ambientales en todo el mundo.

A Framework for Various Approaches under the UNFCCC: Necessity or luxury? CEPS Special Report No. 70, 20 November 2012

In recognition that the world is moving towards a new climate change regime that in many ways will be very different from the world in which the Kyoto Protocol has been operating, climate negotiators and other specialists have begun to focus their attention on developing a “framework for variable approaches” (FVA). It is hoped that this new framework will prove more adaptable to national circumstances and more capable of catalysing new ideas, at the regional, national or sub-national level. This paper examines the assumptions, objectives, scope, components and functions of an FVA, with a view to creating the right conditions in which a well-functioning global carbon market can emerge.

The Future of the Clean Development Mechanism. Note on the report “A Call to Action” of the High-Level Panel on CDM Policy Dialogue. CEPS Special Report No. 71, 20 November 2012

The clean development mechanism (CDM) has been through a long and complex growing process since it was approved as part of the Kyoto Protocol. It was designed within the framework of the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol, and reflected the political and economic realities of that time. To ensure its continued effectiveness in contributing to future global climate action and to reflect on how best to position the CDM to respond to future challenges, a high-level panel (HLP) was formed at the Durban climate change conference in 2011. Following extensive consultations, the panel published its report in September 2012. Through this Special Report, the CEPS Carbon Market Forum offers its reflections on findings and recommendations of the HLP, as well as, by extension, its own views on the future of the CDM. In the context of the latter, it explores the following questions: Is there a need for an instrument such as the CDM in the future? What ‘demand’ can it fill? In the roles identified under the first question, what can be done to adapt it and also continue to increase its efficacy?

Doha/COP 18: gateway to a new climate change agreement. CEPS Commentary, 13 December 2012

Drawing on his recent experience in the climate negotiations in Doha as an advisor and negotiator on a wide variety of issues, Andrei Marcu offers his assessment of the progress achieved in the two weeks of intensive talks. In spite of modest results, he describes the talks as an important and necessary step in the revolution, first ignited at the Montreal negotiations in 2005, that rejected the top-down Kyoto Protocol model in favour of a bottom-up climate change regime. In his view, the decisions taken in Doha enable the start of a new negotiating process aimed at delivering a new global climate agreement.

National and sub-national assessments of soil organic carbon stocks and changes: The GEFSOC modelling system

Soil organic carbon (SOC) plays a vital role in ecosystem function, determining soil fertility, water holding capacity and susceptibility to land degradation. In addition, SOC is related to atmospheric CO, levels with soils having the potential for C release or sequestration, depending on land use, land management and climate. The United Nations Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol, and other United Nations Conventions to Combat Desertification and on Biodiversity all recognize the importance of SOC and point to the need for quantification of SOC stocks and changes. An understanding of SOC stocks and changes at the national and regional scale is necessary to further our understanding of the global C cycle, to assess the responses of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change and to aid policy makers in making land use/management decisions. Several studies have considered SOC stocks at the plot scale, but these are site specific and of limited value in making inferences about larger areas. Some studies have used empirical methods to estimate SOC stocks and changes at the regional scale, but such studies are limited in their ability to project future changes, and most have been carried out using temperate data sets. The computational method outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been used to estimate SOC stock changes at the regional scale in several studies, including a recent study considering five contrasting eco regions. This 'one step' approach fails to account for the dynamic manner in which SOC changes are likely to occur following changes in land use and land management. A dynamic modelling approach allows estimates to be made in a manner that accounts for the underlying processes leading to SOC change. Ecosystem models, designed for site scale applications can be linked to spatial databases, giving spatially explicit results that allow geographic areas of change in SOC stocks to be identified. Some studies have used variations on this approach to estimate SOC stock changes at the sub-national and national scale for areas of the USA and Europe and at the watershed scale for areas of Mexico and Cuba. However, a need remained for a national and regional scale, spatially explicit system that is generically applicable and can be applied to as wide a range of soil types, climates and land uses as possible. The Global Environment Facility Soil Organic Carbon (GEFSOC) Modelling System was developed in response to this need. The GEFSOC system allows estimates of SOC stocks and changes to be made for diverse conditions, providing essential information for countries wishing to take part in an emerging C market, and bringing us closer to an understanding of the future role of soils in the global C cycle. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

IR spectrum and radiative forcing of CF4 revisited

Carbon tetrafluoride (CF4) is included as a greenhouse gas within the Kyoto Protocol. There are significant discrepancies in the reported integrated infrared (IR) absorption cross section of CF4 leading to uncertainty in its contribution to climate change. To reduce this uncertainty, the IR spectrum of CF4 was measured in two different laboratories, in 0 933 hPa of air diluent at 296 +/- 2K over the wavelength range 600-3700 cm(-1) using spectral resolutions of 0.03 or 0.50 cm(-1). There was no discernable effect of diluent gas pressure or spectral resolution on the integrated IR absorption, and a value of the integrated absorption cross section of (1.90 +/- 0.17) x 10(-16) cm(2) molecule(-1) cm(-1) was derived. The radiative efficiency (radiative forcing per ppbv) and GWP (relative to CO2) of CF4 were calculated to be 0.102 W m(-2) ppbv(-1) and 7200 (100 year time horizon). The GWP for CF4 calculated herein is approximately 30% greater than that given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [ 2002] partly due to what we believe to be an erroneously low value for the IR absorption strength of CF4 assumed in the calculations adopted by the IPCC. The radiative efficiency of CF4 is predicted to decrease by up to 40% as the CF4 forcing starts to saturate and overlapping absorption by CH4, H2O, and N2O in the atmosphere increases over the period 1750-2100. The radiative forcing attributable to increased CF4 levels in the atmosphere from 1750 to 2000 is estimated to be 0.004 W m(-2) and is predicted to be up to 0.033 W m(-2) from 2000 to 2100, dependent on the scenario.

Perfluorodecalin: global warming potential and first detection in the atmosphere

Perfluorodecalin (C10F18) has a range of medical uses that have led to small releases. Recently, it has been proposed as a carrier of vaccines, which could lead to significantly larger emissions. Since its emissions are controlled under the Kyoto Protocol, it is important that values for the global warming potential (GWP) are available. For a 50:50 mixture of the two isomers of perfluorodecalin, laboratory measurements, supplemented by theoretical calculations, give an integrated absorption cross-section of 3.91 x 10(-16) cm(2) molecule(-1) cm(-1) over the spectral region 0-1500 cm(-1); calculations yield a radiative efficiency of 0.56 W m(-2) ppbv(-1) and a 100-year GWP, relative to carbon dioxide, of 7200 assuming a lifetime of 1000 years. We report the first atmospheric measurements of perfluorodecalin, at Bristol, UK and Mace Head, Ireland, where volume mixing ratios are about 1.5 x 10(-15). At these concentrations, it makes a trivial contribution to climate change, but on a per molecule basis it is a potent greenhouse gas, indicating the need for careful assessment of its possible future usage. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: metrics

The transport sector emits a wide variety of gases and aerosols, with distinctly different characteristics which influence climate directly and indirectly via chemical and physical processes. Tools that allow these emissions to be placed on some kind of common scale in terms of their impact on climate have a number of possible uses such as: in agreements and emission trading schemes; when considering potential trade-offs between changes in emissions resulting from technological or operational developments; and/or for comparing the impact of different environmental impacts of transport activities. Many of the non-CO2 emissions from the transport sector are short-lived substances, not currently covered by the Kyoto Protocol. There are formidable difficulties in developing metrics and these are particularly acute for such short-lived species. One difficulty concerns the choice of an appropriate structure for the metric (which may depend on, for example, the design of any climate policy it is intended to serve) and the associated value judgements on the appropriate time periods to consider; these choices affect the perception of the relative importance of short- and long-lived species. A second difficulty is the quantification of input parameters (due to underlying uncertainty in atmospheric processes). In addition, for some transport-related emissions, the values of metrics (unlike the gases included in the Kyoto Protocol) depend on where and when the emissions are introduced into the atmosphere – both the regional distribution and, for aircraft, the distribution as a function of altitude, are important. In this assessment of such metrics, we present Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) as these have traditionally been used in the implementation of climate policy. We also present Global Temperature Change Potentials (GTPs) as an alternative metric, as this, or a similar metric may be more appropriate for use in some circumstances. We use radiative forcings and lifetimes from the literature to derive GWPs and GTPs for the main transport-related emissions, and discuss the uncertainties in these estimates. We find large variations in metric (GWP and GTP) values for NOx, mainly due to the dependence on location of emissions but also because of inter-model differences and differences in experimental design. For aerosols we give only global-mean values due to an inconsistent picture amongst available studies regarding regional dependence. The uncertainty in the presented metric values reflects the current state of understanding; the ranking of the various components with respect to our confidence in the given metric values is also given. While the focus is mostly on metrics for comparing the climate impact of emissions, many of the issues are equally relevant for stratospheric ozone depletion metrics, which are also discussed.

Governing the clean development mechanism: global rhetoric versus local realities in carbon sequestration projects

Global agreements have proliferated in the past ten years. One of these is the Kyoto Protocol, which contains provisions for emissions reductions by trading carbon through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The CDM is a market-based instrument that allows companies in Annex I countries to offset their greenhouse gas emissions through energy and tree offset projects in the global South. I set out to examine the governance challenges posed by the institutional design of carbon sequestration projects under the CDM. I examine three global narratives associated with the design of CDM forest projects, specifically North – South knowledge politics, green developmentalism, and community participation, and subsequently assess how these narratives match with local practices in two projects in Latin America. Findings suggest that governance problems are operating at multiple levels and that the rhetoric of global carbon actors often asserts these schemes in one light, while the rhetoric of those who are immediately involved locally may be different. I also stress the alarmist’s discourse that blames local people for the problems of environmental change. The case studies illustrate the need for vertical communication and interaction and nested governance arrangements as well as horizontal arrangements. I conclude that the global framing of forests as offsets requires better integration of local relationships to forests and their management and more effective institutions at multiple levels to link the very local to the very large scale when dealing with carbon sequestration in the CDM.

Small-scale forest carbon projects: Adapting CDM to low-income communities

Given the decision to include small-scale sinks projects implemented by low-income communities in the clean development mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol, the paper explores some of the basic governance conditions that such carbon forestry projects will have to meet if they are to be successfully put in practice. To date there are no validated small-scale sinks projects and investors have shown little interest in financing such projects, possibly to due to the risks and uncertainties associated with sinks projects. Some suggest however, that carbon has the potential to become a serious commodity on the world market, thus governance over ownership, rights and responsibilities merit discussion. Drawing on the interdisciplinary development, as well as from the literature on livelihoods and democratic decentralization in forestry, the paper explores how to adapt forest carbon projects to the realities encountered in the local context. It also highlights the importance of capitalizing on synergies with other rural development strategies, ensuring stakeholder participation by working with accountable, representative local organizations, and creating flexible and adaptive project designs.