Heuristics and building price forecasting

The construction industry contains two types of estimators the contractors' estimator and the designers' price forecaster. Each has two models of the building in which to systemize his procedures - the production model and the design model. The use of these models is discussed in the light of the industry's particular problems of complexity and uncertainty together with the pressures of the market. It is argued that estimators and forecasters, in order to function effectively in these conditions, are forced to exercise a high degree of subjective judgment. Means of eliciting good heuristics involved in judgment making are considered by reference to the artificial intelligence and construction literature and a methodology is proposed based on these findings. The results of two early trials of the method with students are given, indicating the usefulness of the approach.

What drives the commodity price beta of oil industry stocks

We test theoretical drivers of the oil price beta of oil industry stocks. The strongest statistical and economic support comes for market conditions-type variables as the prime drivers: namely, oil price (+), bond rate (+), volatility of oil returns (−) and cost of carry (+). Though statistically significant, exogenous firm characteristics and oil firms' financing decisions have less compelling economic significance. There is weaker support for the prediction that financial risk management reduces the exposure of oil stocks to crude oil price variation. Finally, extended modelling shows that mean reversion in oil prices also helps explain cross-sectional variation in the oil beta.

“I Just Didn’t Think” – Orientation Drama

The resulting live and video performance follows the stories of Jared, Amanda and Sonia and the issues they face in transitioning to university, and uses interactive elements to engage real university students in thinking about approaches to their studies. It has been commissioned for presentation 5 times with varying groups of actors since it was created.

Not just another ball game : young adult and adult football fictions are different

Current media attention on the crossover novel highlights the increasing permeability of the boundaries between young adult and adult fiction. This paper will focus upon some of the difficulties around definitions of young adult fiction before considering the fiction of football, or soccer as it is more commonly known in Australia. The football genre exhibits a number of discrete and identifiable differences between young adult and adult readerships including, for example, the role of the protagonist, and the narrative’s distance from the game. This paper will use Franco Moretti’s Mapping as Distant Reading model of abstraction to highlight and unpack these and other characteristic differences in the narratological and stylistic techniques employed across adult and young adult texts. Close reading analysis of the adult football fiction Striker (1992) by Hunter Davies and young adult football fiction Lucy Zeezou’s Goal (2008) by Liz Deep-Jones’ will further illustrate the range of tensions and divergences as they are reflected across those readerships. The texts have been selected because they speak to themes of fear and safety; Joe Swift (Striker) is driven by a need to move away from childhood poverty and insecurity, while Lucy Zeezou shelters a homeless friend. With both protagonists being kidnapped for ransom for example, the texts have also been selected for their striking similarities in form and content.

“As many options as there are, there are just not enough for me” : a qualitative analysis of contraceptive use and barriers to access among Australian women

There is currently little information available about reasons for contraceptive use or non-use among young Australian women and the reasons for choosing specific types of contraceptive methods. A comprehensive life course perspective of women's experiences in using and obtaining contraceptives is lacking, particularly relating to women's perceived or physical barriers to access. This paper presents an analysis of qualitative data gathered from free-text comments provided by women born between 1973 and 1978 as part of their participation in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. The Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health is a large cohort study involving over 40,000 women from three age groups (aged 18-23, aged 40-45 and aged 70-75) who were selected from the database of Medicare the Australian universal health insurance system in 1995. The women have been surveyed every 3 years about their health by mailed self-report surveys, and more recently online. Written comments from 690 women across five surveys from 1996 (when they were aged 18-23 years) to 2009 (aged 31-36 years) were examined. Factors relating to contraceptive use and barriers to access were identified and explored using thematic analysis. Side-effects, method satisfaction, family timing, and hormonal balance were relevant to young women using contraception. Most women who commented about a specific contraceptive method wrote about the oral contraceptive pill. While many women were positive or neutral about their method, noting its convenience or non-contraceptive benefits, many others were concerned about adverse effects, affordability, method failure, and lack of choice. Negative experiences with health services, lack of information, and cost were identified as barriers to access. As the cohort aged over time, method choice, changing patterns of use, side-effects, and negative experiences with health services remained important themes. Side-effects, convenience, and family timing play important roles in young Australian women's experiences of contraception and barriers to access. Contrary to assumptions, barriers to contraceptive access continue to be experienced by young women as they move into adulthood. Further research is needed about how to decrease barriers to contraceptive use and minimise negative experiences in order to ensure optimal contraceptive access for Australian women.

“As many options as there are, there are just not enough for me” : a qualitative analysis of contraceptive use and barriers to access among Australian women

There is currently little information available about reasons for contraceptive use or non-use among young Australian women and the reasons for choosing specific types of contraceptive methods. A comprehensive life course perspective of women's experiences in using and obtaining contraceptives is lacking, particularly relating to women's perceived or physical barriers to access. This paper presents an analysis of qualitative data gathered from free-text comments provided by women born between 1973 and 1978 as part of their participation in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. The Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health is a large cohort study involving over 40,000 women from three age groups (aged 18-23, aged 40-45 and aged 70-75) who were selected from the database of Medicare the Australian universal health insurance system in 1995. The women have been surveyed every 3 years about their health by mailed self-report surveys, and more recently online. Written comments from 690 women across five surveys from 1996 (when they were aged 18-23 years) to 2009 (aged 31-36 years) were examined. Factors relating to contraceptive use and barriers to access were identified and explored using thematic analysis. Side-effects, method satisfaction, family timing, and hormonal balance were relevant to young women using contraception. Most women who commented about a specific contraceptive method wrote about the oral contraceptive pill. While many women were positive or neutral about their method, noting its convenience or non-contraceptive benefits, many others were concerned about adverse effects, affordability, method failure, and lack of choice. Negative experiences with health services, lack of information, and cost were identified as barriers to access. As the cohort aged over time, method choice, changing patterns of use, side-effects, and negative experiences with health services remained important themes. Side-effects, convenience, and family timing play important roles in young Australian women's experiences of contraception and barriers to access. Contrary to assumptions, barriers to contraceptive access continue to be experienced by young women as they move into adulthood. Further research is needed about how to decrease barriers to contraceptive use and minimise negative experiences in order to ensure optimal contraceptive access for Australian women.

Every One, Every Day

Creative Statement: “There are those who see Planet Earth as a gigantic living being, one that feeds and nurtures humanity and myriad other species – an entity that must be cared for. Then there are those who see it as a rock full of riches to be pilfered heedlessly in a short-term quest for over-abundance. This ‘cradle to grave’ mentality, it would seem, is taking its toll (unless you’re a virulent disbeliever in climate change). Why not, ask artists Priscilla Bracks and Gavin Sade, take a different approach? To this end they have set out on a near impossible task; to visualise the staggering quantity of carbon produced by Australia every year. Their eerie, glowing plastic cube resembles something straight out of Dr Who or The X Files. And, like the best science fiction, it has technical realities at its heart. Every One, Every Day tangibly illustrates our greenhouse gas output – its 27m3 volume is approximately the amount of green-house gas emitted per capita, daily. Every One, Every Dayis lit by an array of LED’s displaying light patterns representing energy use generated by data from the Australian Energy Market. Every One, Every Day was formed from recycled, polyethylene – used milk bottles – ‘lent’ to the artists by a Visy recycling facility. At the end of the Vivid Festival this plastic will be returned to Visy, where it will re-enter the stream of ‘technical nutrients.’ Could we make another world? One that emulates the continuing cycles of nature? One that uses our ‘technical nutrients’ such as plastic and steel in continual cycles, just like a deciduous tree dropping leaves to compost itself and keep it’s roots warm and moist?” (Ashleigh Crawford. Melbourne – April, 2013) Artistic Research Statement: The research focus of this work is on exploring how to represent complex statistics and data at a human scale, and how produce a work where a large percentage of the materials could be recycled. The surface of Every One, Every Day is clad in tiles made from polyethylene, from primarily recycled milk bottles, ‘lent’ to the artists by the Visy recycling facility in Sydney. The tiles will be returned to Visy for recycling. As such the work can be viewed as an intervention in the industrial ecology of polyethylene, and in the process demonstrates how to sustain cycles of technical materials – by taking the output of a recycling facility back to a manufacturer to produce usable materials. In terms of data visualisation, Every One, Every Day takes the form of a cube with a volume of 27 cubic meters. The annual per capita emissions figures for Australia are cited as ranging between 18 to 25 tons. Assuming the lower figure, 18tons per capital annually, the 27 cubic meters represents approximately one day per capita of CO2 emissions – where CO2 is a gas at 15C and 1 atmosphere of pressure. The work also explores real time data visualisation by using an array of 600 controllable LEDs inside the cube. Illumination patterns are derived from a real time data from the Australian Energy Market, using the dispatch interval price and demand graph for New South Wales. The two variables of demand and price are mapped to properties of the illumination - hue, brightness, movement, frequency etc. The research underpinning the project spanned industrial ecology to data visualization and public art practices. The result is that Every One, Every Day is one of the first public artworks that successfully bring together materials, physical form, and real time data representation in a unified whole.

Ownership, corporate governance and timeliness of price discovery : Australian evidence

This study investigates whether and how a firm’s ownership and corporate governance affect its timeliness of price discovery, which is referred to as the speed of incorporation of value-relevant information into the stock price. Using a panel data of 1,138 Australian firm-year observations from 2001 to 2008, we predict and find a non-linear relationship between ownership concentration and the timeliness of price discovery. We test the identity of the largest shareholder and find that only firms with family as the largest shareholder exhibit faster price discovery. There is no evidence that suggests that the presence of a second largest shareholder affects the timeliness of price discovery materially. Although we find a positive association between corporate governance quality and the timeliness of price discovery, as expected, there is no interaction effect between the largest shareholding and corporate governance in relation to the timeliness of price discovery. Further tests show no evidence of severe endogeneity problems in our study.

Imagining neighbourhood-based community : an autoethnography

This research is an autoethnographic investigation of consumption experiences, public and quasi-public spaces, and their relationship to community within an inner city neighbourhood. The research specifically focuses on the gentrifying inner city, where class-based processes of change can have implications for people’s abilities to remain within, or feel connected to place. However, the thesis draws on broader theories of the throwntogetherness of the contemporary city (e.g., Amin and Thrift, 2002; Massey 2005) to argue that the city is a space where place-based meanings cannot be seen to be fixed, and are instead better understood as events of place – based on ever shifting interrelations between the trajectories of people and things. This perspective argues the experience of belonging to community is not just born of a social encounter, but also draws on the physical and symbolic elements of the context in which it is situated. The thesis particularly explores the ways people construct identifications within this shifting urban environment. As such, consumption practices and spaces offer one important lens through which to explore the interplay of the physical, social and symbolic. Consumer research tells us that consumption practices can facilitate experiences in which identity-defining meaning can be generated and shared. Consumption spaces can also support different kinds of collective identification – as anchoring realms for specific cultural groups or exposure realms that enable individuals to share in the identification practices of others with limited risk (Aubert-Gamet & Cova, 1999). Furthermore, the consumption-based lifestyles that gentrifying inner city neighbourhoods both support and encourage can also mean that consumption practices may be a key reason that people are moving through public space. That is, consumption practices and spaces may provide a purpose for which – and spatial frame against which – our everyday interactions and connections with people and objects are undertaken within such neighbourhoods. The purpose of this investigation then was to delve into the subjectivities at the heart of identifying with places, using the lens of our consumption-based experiences within them. The enquiry describes individual and collective identifications and emotional connections, and explores how these arise within and through our experiences within public and quasi-public spaces. It then theorises these ‘imaginings’ as representative of an experience of community. To do so, it draws on theories of imagination and its relation to community. Theories of imagined community remind us that both the values and identities of community are held together by projections that create relational links out of objects and shared practices (e.g., Benedict Anderson, 2006; Urry, 2000). Drawing on broader theories of the processes of the imagination, this thesis suggests that an interplay between reflexivity and fantasy – which are products of the critical and the fascinated consciousness – plays a role in this imagining of community (e.g., Brann, 1991; Ricoeur, 1994). This thesis therefore seeks to explore how these processes of imagining are implicated within the construction of an experience of belonging to neighbourhood-based community through consumption practices and the public and quasi-public spaces that frame them. The key question of this thesis is how do an individual’s consumption practices work to construct an imagined presence of neighbourhood-based community? Given the focus on public and quasi-public spaces and our experiences within them, the research also asked how do experiences in the public and quasi-public spaces that frame these practices contribute to the construction of this imagined presence? This investigation of imagining community through consumption practices is based on my own experiences of moving to, and attempting to construct community connections within, an inner city neighbourhood in Melbourne, Australia. To do so, I adopted autoethnographic methodology. This is because autoethnography provides the methodological tools through which one can explore and make visible the subjectivities inherent within the lived experiences of interest to the thesis (Ellis, 2004). I describe imagining community through consumption as an extension of a placebased self. This self is manifest through personal identification in consumption spaces that operate as anchoring realms for specific cultural groups, as well as through a broader imagining of spaces, people, and practices as connected through experiences within realms of exposure. However, this is a process that oscillates through cycles of identification; these anchor one within place personally, but also disrupt those attachments. This instability can force one to question the orientation and motives of these imaginings, and reframe them according to different spaces and reference groups in ways that can also work to construct a more anonymous and, conversely, more achievable collective identification. All the while, the ‘I’ at the heart of this identification is in an ongoing process of negotiation, and similarly, the imagined community is never complete. That is, imagining community is a negotiation, with people and spaces – but mostly with the different identifications of the self. This thesis has been undertaken by publication, and thus the process of imagining community is explored and described through four papers. Of these, the first two focus on specific types of consumption spaces – a bar and a shopping centre – and consider the ways that anchoring and exposure within these spaces support the process of imagining community. The third paper examines the ways that the public and quasi-public spaces that make up the broader neighbourhood context are themselves throwntogether as a realm of exposure, and considers the ways this shapes my imaginings of this neighbourhood as community. The final paper develops a theory of imagined community, as a process of comparison and contrast with imagined others, to provide a summative conceptualisation of the first three papers. The first paper, chapter five, explores this process of comparison and contrast in relation to authenticity, which in itself is a subjective assessment of identity. This chapter was written as a direct response to the recent work of Zukin (2010), and draws on theories of authenticity as applied to personal and collective identification practices by consumer researchers Arnould and Price (2000). In this chapter, I describe how my assessments of the authenticity of my anchoring experiences within one specific consumption space, a neighbourhood bar, are evaluated in comparison to my observations of and affective reactions to the social practices of another group of residents in a different consumption space, the local shopping centre. Chapter five also provides an overview of the key sites and experiences that are considered in more detail in the following two chapters. In chapter six, I again draw on my experiences within the bar introduced in chapter five, this time to explore the process of developing a regular identity within a specific consumption space. Addressing the popular theory of the cafe or bar as third place (Oldenburg, 1999), this paper considers the purpose of developing anchored relationships with people within specific consumption spaces, and explores the different ways this may be achieved in an urban context where the mobilities and lifestyle practices of residents complicate the idea of a consumption space as an anchoring or third place. In doing so, this chapter also considers the manner in which this type of regular identification may be seen to be the beginning of the process of imagining community. In chapter seven, I consider the ways the broader public spaces of the neighbourhood work cumulatively to expose different aspects of its identity by following my everyday movements through the neighbourhood’s shopping centre and main street. Drawing on the theories of Urry (2000), Massey (2005), and Amin (2007, 2008), this chapter describes how these spaces operate as exposure realms, enabling the expression of different senses of the neighbourhood’s spaces, times, cultures, and identities through their physical, social, and symbolic elements. Yet they also enable them to be united: through habitual pathways, group practices of appropriation of space, and memory traces that construct connections between objects and experiences. This chapter describes this as a process of exposure to these different elements. Our imagination begins to expand the scope of the frames onto which it projects an imagined presence; it searches for patterns within the physical, social, and symbolic environment and draws connections between people and practices across spaces. As the final paper, chapter eight, deduces, it is in making these connections that one constructs the objects and shared practices of imagined community. This chapter describes this as an imagining of neighbourhood as a place-based extension of the self, and then explores the ways in which I drew on physical, social, and symbolic elements in an attempt to construct a fit between the neighbourhood’s offerings and my desires for place-based identity definition. This was as a cumulative but fragmented process, in which positive and negative experiences of interaction and identification with people and things were searched for their potential to operate as the objects and shared practices of imagined community. This chapter describes these connections as constructed through interplay between reflexivity and fantasy, as the imagination seeks balance between desires for experiences of belonging, and the complexities of constructing them within the throwntogether context of the contemporary city. The conclusion of the thesis describes the process of imagining community as a reflexive fantasy, that is, as a product of both the critical and fascinated consciousness (Ricoeur, 1994). It suggests that the fascinated consciousness imbues experiences with hope and desire, which the reflexive imagining can turn to disappointment and shame as it critically reflects on the reality of those fascinated projections. At the same time, the reflexive imagination also searches the practices of others for affirmation of those projections, effectively seeking to prove the reality of the fantasy of the imagined community.

A socially just rationale for an Australian curriculum? : a critical thematic policy analysis of political speeches in education (2007-2010)

In late 2007, newly elected Prime Minister Kevin Rudd placed education reform on centre stage as a key policy in the Labor Party's agenda for social reform in Australia. A major policy strategy within this 'Education Revolution' was the development of a national curriculum, the Australian Curriculum Within this political context, this study is an investigation into how social justice and equity have been used in political speeches to justify the need for, and the nature of, Australia's first official national curriculum. The aim is to provide understandings into what is said or not said; who is included or excluded, represented or misrepresented; for what purpose; and for whose benefit. The study investigates political speeches made by Education Ministers between 2008 and 201 0; that is, from the inception of the Australian Curriculum to the release of the Phase 1 F - 10 draft curriculum documents in English, mathematics, science and history. Curriculum development is defined here as an ongoing process of complex conversations. To contextualise the process of curriculum development within Australia, the thesis commences with an initial review of curriculum development in this nation over the past three decades. It then frames this review within contemporary curriculum theory; in particular it calls upon the work of William Pinar and the key notions of currere and reconceptualised curriculum. This contextualisation work is then used as a foundation to examine how social justice and equity have been represented in political speeches delivered by the respective Education Ministers Julia Gillard and Peter Garrett at key junctures of Australian Curriculum document releases. A critical thematic policy analysis is the approach used to examine selected official speech transcripts released by the ministerial media centre through the DEEWR website. This approach provides a way to enable insights and understandings of representations of social justice and equity issues in the policy agenda. Broader social implications are also discussed. The project develops an analytic framework that enables an investigation into the framing of social justice and equity issues such as inclusion, equality, quality education, sharing of resources and access to learning opportunities in political speeches aligned with the development of the Australian Curriculum Through this analysis, the study adopts a focus on constructions of educationally disadvantaged students and how the solutions of 'fixing' teachers and providing the 'right' curriculum are presented as resolutions to the perceived problem. In this way, it aims to work towards offering insights into political justifications for a national curriculum in Australia from a social justice perspective.

Industrial land price and its impact on urban growth : a Chinese case study

China is experiencing rapid progress in industrialization, with its own rationale toward industrial land development based on a deliberate change from an extensive to intensive form of urban land use. One result has been concerted attempts by local government to attract foreign investment by a low industrial land price strategy, which has resulted in a disproportionally large amount of industrial land within the total urban land use structure at the expense of the urban sprawl of many cities. This paper first examines “Comparable Benchmark Price as Residential land use” (CBPR) as the theoretical basis of the low industrial land price phenomenon. Empirical findings are presented from a case study based on data from Jinyun County, China. These data are analyzed to reveal the rationale of industrial land price from 2000 to 2010 concerning the CBPR model. We then explore the causes of low industrial land prices in the form of a “Centipede Game Model”, involving two neighborhood regions as “major players” to make a set of moves (or strategies). When one of the players unilaterally reduces the land price to attract investment with the aim to maximize profits arising from the revenues generated from foreign investment and land premiums, a two-player price war begins in the form of a dynamic game, the effect of which is to produce a downward spiral of prices. In this context, the paradox of maximizing profits for each of the two players are not accomplished due to the inter-regional competition of attracted investment leading to a lose-lose situation for both sides’ in competing for land premium revenues. A short-term solution to the problem is offered involving the establishment of inter-regional cooperative partnerships. For the longer term, however, a comprehensive reform of the local financial system, more adroit regional planning and an improved means of evaluating government performance is needed to ensure the government's role in securing pubic goods is not abandoned in favor of one solely concerned with revenue generation.