The Three Horsemen of Growth: Plague, War and Urbanization in Early Modern Europe

How did Europe overtake China? We construct a simple Malthusian model with two sectors, and use it to explain how European per capita incomes and urbanization rates could surge ahead of Chinese ones. That living standards could exceed subsistence levels at all in a Malthusian setting should be surprising. Rising fertility and falling mortality ought to have reversed any gains. We show that productivity growth in Europe can only explain a small fraction of rising living standards. Population dynamics - changes of the birth and death schedules - were far more important drivers of the longrun Malthusian equilibrium. The Black Death raised wages substantially, creating important knock-on effects. Because of Engel's Law, demand for urban products increased, raising urban wages and attracting migrants from rural areas. European cities were unhealthy, especially compared to Far Eastern ones. Urbanization pushed up aggregate death rates. This effect was reinforced by more frequent wars (fed by city wealth) and disease spread by trade. Thus, higher wages themselves reduced population pressure. Without technological change, our model can account for the sharp rise in European urbanization as well as permanently higher per capita incomes. We complement our calibration exercise with a detailed analysis of intra-European growth in the early modern period. Using a panel of European states in the period 1300-1700, we show that war frequency can explain a good share of the divergent fortunes within Europe.

Umbilical venous concentrations of estradiol in infants with early-onset neonatal sepsis and chorioamnionitis.

Objective: Fetuses are exposed to high concentrations of estradiol due to placental production. Experimental data suggest that estradiol is an important modulator of the immune response. However, the role of estradiol in the pathogenesis of early-onset neonatal sepsis (EOS) is unknown. The purpose of this pilot study was to determine estradiol levels in umbilical venous blood of newborns with EOS or chorioamnionitis exposure. Methods: Estradiol concentrations were measured by enzyme immunoassay in 37 newborns with EOS, 37 newborns with chorioamnionitis and 37 controls matched for gestational age and gender. Results: Estradiol levels correlated with gestational age, birth weight, gender and mode of delivery (p < 0.05). Multivariate analysis revealed higher estradiol levels in the EOS than in the chorioamnionitis group (odds ratio 8.43, 95% CI 1.63-43.45, p = 0.01) with the highest levels in patients with proven bacteraemia (p = 0.02). No difference was found between the EOS and the control group. Exploratory analysis showed an association between lower estradiol levels and a longer duration of mechanical ventilation (n = 28, p = 0.02). Conclusions: Umbilical venous estradiol levels were similar in EOS compared to controls. Further investigation is needed to evaluate whether high estradiol levels in infants with chorioamnionitis increases the risk of developing EOS.

The three horsemen of riches: Plague, war and urbanization in early modern Europe

How did Europe escape the "Iron Law of Wages?" We construct a simple Malthusian model withtwo sectors and multiple steady states, and use it to explain why European per capita incomes andurbanization rates increased during the period 1350-1700. Productivity growth can only explain a smallfraction of the rise in output per capita. Population dynamics changes of the birth and death schedules were far more important determinants of steady states. We show how a major shock to population cantrigger a transition to a new steady state with higher per-capita income. The Black Death was such ashock, raising wages substantially. Because of Engel's Law, demand for urban products increased, andurban centers grew in size. European cities were unhealthy, and rising urbanization pushed up aggregatedeath rates. This effect was reinforced by diseases spread through war, financed by higher tax revenues.In addition, rising trade also spread diseases. In this way higher wages themselves reduced populationpressure. We show in a calibration exercise that our model can account for the sustained rise in Europeanurbanization as well as permanently higher per capita incomes in 1700, without technological change.Wars contributed importantly to the "Rise of Europe", even if they had negative short-run effects. We thustrace Europe s precocious rise to economic riches to interactions of the plague shock with the belligerentpolitical environment and the nature of cities.

Treatment and Early Intervention in Psychosis Program (TIPP-Lausanne): implementation of an early intervention programme for psychosis in Switzerland.

AIM: In a survey conducted in the Lausanne catchment area in 2000, we could estimate on the basis of file assessment that first-episode psychosis (FEP) patients had psychotic symptoms for more than 2 years before treatment and that 50% did not attend any outpatient appointment after discharge from hospital. In this paper, we describe the implementation of a specialized programme aimed at improving engagement and quality of treatment for early psychosis patients in the Lausanne catchment area in Switzerland. METHOD: The Treatment and Early Intervention in Psychosis Program-Lausanne is a comprehensive 3-year programme composed of (i) an outpatient clinic based on assertive case management; (ii) a specialized inpatient unit; and (iii) an intensive mobile team, connected for research to the Center for Psychiatric Neuroscience. RESULTS: Eight years after implementation, the programme has included 350 patients with a disengagement rate of 9% over 3 years of treatment. All patients have been assessed prospectively and 90 participated in neurobiological research. Based on this experience, the Health Department funded the implementation of similar programmes in other parts of the state, covering a total population of 540 000 people. CONCLUSION: Programmes for early intervention in psychosis have a major impact on patients' engagement into treatment. While development of mobile teams and assertive case management with specific training are crucial, they do not necessitate massive financial support to be started. Inclusion of a research component is important as well, in terms of service planning and improvement of both quality of care and impact of early intervention strategies.

p27 and Skp2 immunoreactivity and its clinical significance with endocrine and chemo-endocrine treatments in node-negative early breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Low p27 and high Skp2 immunoreactivity are associated with a poor prognosis and other poor prognostic features including resistant phenotypes and antiestrogen drug resistance. We investigated these proteins in two International Breast Cancer Study Group trials studying node-negative early breast cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Trial VIII compared chemotherapy followed by goserelin with either modality alone in premenopausal patients. Trial IX compared chemotherapy followed by tamoxifen with tamoxifen alone in postmenopausal patients. Central Pathology Office assessed p27 and Skp2 expression in the primary tumor by immunohistochemistry among 1631 (60%) trial patients. RESULTS: p27 and Skp2 were inversely related; 13% of tumors expressed low p27 and high Skp2. Low p27 and high Skp2 were associated with unfavorable prognostic factors including larger size and higher grade tumors, absence of estrogen receptor and progesterone receptor, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 overexpression and high Ki-67 (each P < 0.05). Low p27 and high Skp2 were not associated with disease-free survival (P = 0.42 and P = 0.48, respectively). The relative effects of chemo-endocrine versus endocrine therapy were similar regardless of p27 or Skp2. CONCLUSIONS: We confirm the association of low p27 and high Skp2 with other poor prognostic features, but found no predictive or prognostic value, and therefore do not recommend routine determination of p27 and Skp2 for node-negative breast cancer.

Weight-bearing bones are more sensitive to physical exercise in boys than in girls during pre- and early puberty: a cross-sectional study.

We carried out a cross-section study of the sex-specific relationship between bone mineral content and physical activity at sites with different loading in pre- and early pubertal girls and boys. There was significant sensitivity of bone mineral content of the hip to physical exercise in boys, but not in girls. BACKGROUND: Since little is known whether there are sex differences in sensitivity of bone to loading, we investigated sex differences in the cross-sectional association between measures of physical activity (PA) and bone mass and size in pre- and early pubertal children of both sexes. METHODS: We measured bone mineral content/density (BMC/BMD) and fat-free mass (FFM) in 269 6- to 13-year-old children from randomly selected schools by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Physical activity (PA) was measured by accelerometers and lower extremity strength by a jump-and-reach test. RESULTS: Boys (n = 128) had higher hip and total body BMC and BMD, higher FFM, higher muscle strength and were more physically active than girls (n = 141). Total hip BMC was positively associated with time spent in total and vigorous PA in boys (r = 0.20-0.33, p < 0.01), but not in girls (r = 0.02-0.04, p = ns), even after adjusting for FFM and strength. While boys and girls in the lowest tertile of vigorous PA (22 min/day) did not differ in hip BMC (15.62 vs 15.52 g), boys in the highest tertile (72 min/day) had significantly higher values than the corresponding girls (16.84 vs 15.71 g, p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Sex differences in BMC during pre- and early puberty may be related to a different sensitivity of bone to physical loading, irrespective of muscle mass.

The role of population origin and microenvironment in seedling emergence and early survival in Mediterranean maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton).

Understanding tree recruitment is needed to forecast future forest distribution. Many studies have reported the relevant ecological factors that affect recruitment success in trees, but the potential for genetic-based differences in recruitment has often been neglected. In this study, we established a semi-natural reciprocal sowing experiment to test for local adaptation and microenvironment effects (evaluated here by canopy cover) in the emergence and early survival of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton), an emblematic Mediterranean forest tree. A novel application of molecular markers was also developed to test for family selection and, thus, for potential genetic change over generations. Overall, we did not find evidence to support local adaptation at the recruitment stage in our semi-natural experiment. Moreover, only weak family selection (if any) was found, suggesting that in stressful environments with low survival, stochastic processes and among-year climate variability may drive recruitment. Nevertheless, our study revealed that, at early stages of recruitment, microenvironments may favor the population with the best adapted life strategy, irrespectively of its (local or non-local) origin. We also found that emergence time is a key factor for seedling survival in stressful Mediterranean environments. Our study highlights the complexity of the factors influencing the early stages of establishment of maritime pine and provides insights into possible management actions aimed at environmental change impact mitigation. In particular, we found that the high stochasticity of the recruitment process in stressful environments and the differences in population-specific adaptive strategies may difficult assisted migration schemes.

Alcohol consumption in late adolescence and early adulthood - where is the problem?

Risky single-occasion drinking (RSOD) is more common in late adolescence and early adulthood (approximately between the ages of 16 and 30) than in any other period in life. This is also the age when young people in Switzerland and many other European countries are legally allowed to buy and drink alcohol, but they usually do not yet have adult responsibilities. This paper reviews evidence from the international literature and provides examples of studies conducted in Switzerland demonstrating that (a) RSOD is by far most prevalent on Saturday evenings followed by Friday evenings, usually because young people go out and do not have any work or study responsibilities the next day; (b) RSOD results from drinking in private before going out ("predrinking") and accelerating the pace of drinking (i.e. increasing the number of drinks consumed per hour); (c) RSOD is often not accidental but purposeful,. to seek excitement, to have fun and to feel the effects of alcohol; (d) RSOD occurs predominantly outside the home, mostly in bars, pubs, discos or at special events and festivals; (e) RSOD often results in intended and unintended injuries and other acute consequences, which are leading risk factors for mortality and morbidity in this age group. Effective prevention strategies should include attempts to reduce opportunities to engage in heavy drinking as well as strategies to reduce its harmful consequences.

Morbidity and outcome after sentinel lymph node dissection in patients with early-stage malignant cutaneous melanoma.

OBJECTIVE: Prospective analysis of the morbidity and outcome of the sentinel lymph node (SLN) technique in a consecutive series of patients with early-stage melanoma. METHODS: Between 1997 and 1998, 60 patients with stage IB-II malignant melanoma underwent SLN dissection. Preoperative dynamic lymphoscintigraphy with mapping of the lymph vessels and lymph nodes and location of the sentinel node was performed the day before SLN dissection. SLN was identified by use of the blue dye technique. SLN was assessed for histopathological and immunohistochemical examination. Postoperative morbidity and mortality were recorded. Follow-up consisted of repetitive clinical examination with lymph nodes status, laboratory and radiologic findings. RESULTS: Tumor-positive SLN was observed in 18% of the patients and stage II disease was found in 91% of the patients with positive SLN. Breslow thickness was the only significant factor predicting involvement of a SLN (p = 0.02). In 36% of the positive SLN, metastases could be assessed only by immunohistochemical examination. Postoperative complications after SLN dissection were observed in 5% in comparison with 36% after elective lymph node dissection. After a mean follow-up of 32 months, recurrence was observed in 3% with a mean disease-free survival of 8 months. Overall survival was 82% and 90% in patients with positive and negative SLN, respectively. Overall mortality was 15%, due to distant metastases in 78% of the cases. CONCLUSIONS: Staging of early-stage melanoma with the SLN dissection by use of the blue dye technique combined to lymphoscintigraphy and immunohistochemistry is reliable and safe, with less morbidity than elective lymphadenectomy. Long-term follow-up is mandatory to establish the exact reliability of SLN dissection.

Characteristics and early and long-term outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke and low ejection fraction.

OBJECTIVES: We assessed the clinical characteristics of patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) with left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) ≤ 35% and investigated the association of low EF with early and long-term outcome. METHODS: A total of 2439 patients of the Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne (ASTRAL) were selected. Demographics, risk factors, pre-stroke treatment, and clinical, radiological and metabolic variables in patients with and without low EF were compared. Functional independence (modified Rankin Score ≤ 2) and mortality were recorded 1 week up to 12 months from admission. RESULTS: Low EF patients (n=119) were more commonly men, older, had higher rates of coronary artery disease and atrial fibrillation (AF), and more frequent pretreatment with anticoagulants, antiplatelets and antihypertensive agents. On admission, they presented with higher stroke severity and had lower values of systolic blood pressure, higher heart rate, and worse estimated glomerular filtration rate. Stroke-related disability and death rates were higher in low EF patients during follow-up (19.5% vs. 7.8% at 1 week, and 36.1% vs. 16.5% at 12 months). Increasing age, stroke severity, and AF were independent predictors of one-year mortality in these patients while prior use of statins had a favorable effect on early mortality. CONCLUSIONS: AIS in patients with low EF is associated with older age, cardiac comorbidities, and more severe clinical presentation. Low EF can identify a subset of AIS patients at high risk of early and long-term functional disability and mortality.