Electric Power Forecasting Methodologies of Some South American Countries: A Comparative Analysis

In this paper, a comparative analysis of the long-term electric power forecasting methodologies used in some South American countries, is presented. The purpose of this study is to compare and observe if such methodologies have some similarities, and also examine the behavior of the results when they are applied to the Brazilian electric market. The abovementioned power forecasts were performed regarding the main four consumption classes (residential, industrial, commercial and rural) which are responsible for approximately 90% of the national consumption. The tool used in this analysis was the SAS (c) program. The outcome of this study allowed identifying various methodological similarities, mainly those related to the econometric variables used by these methods. This fact strongly conditioned the comparative results obtained.

Hybrid Method to Assess Sensitive Process Interruption Costs Due to Faults in Electric Power Distribution Networks

This paper shows a new hybrid method for risk assessment regarding interruptions in sensitive processes due to faults in electric power distribution systems. This method determines indices related to long duration interruptions and short duration voltage variations (SDVV), such as voltage sags and swells in each customer supplied by the distribution network. Frequency of such occurrences and their impact on customer processes are determined for each bus and classified according to their corresponding magnitude and duration. The method is based on information regarding network configuration, system parameters and protective devices. It randomly generates a number of fault scenarios in order to assess risk areas regarding long duration interruptions and voltage sags and swells in an especially inventive way, including frequency of events according to their magnitude and duration. Based on sensitivity curves, the method determines frequency indices regarding disruption in customer processes that represent equipment malfunction and possible process interruptions due to voltage sags and swells. Such approach allows for the assessment of the annual costs associated with each one of the evaluated power quality indices.

A Power-Quality Index to Assess the Impact of Voltage Harmonic Distortions and Unbalance to Three-Phase Induction Motors

This paper discusses the need to simultaneously monitor voltage unbalance and harmonic distortions in addition to root-mean-square voltage values. An alternative way to obtain the parameters related to voltage unbalance at fundamental frequency as well as voltage harmonic distortions is here proposed, which is based on the representation of instantaneous values at the axes and at the instantaneous Euclidean norm. A new power-quality (PQ) index is then proposed to combine the effects of voltage unbalance and harmonic distortions. This new index is easily implemented into existing electronic power meters. This PQ index is determined from the analysis of temperature rise in induction motor windings, which were tested for long periods of time. This paper also shows that these voltage disturbances, which are harmful to the lifetime expectancy of motors, can be measured by alternative ways in relation to conventional methods. Although this paper deals with induction motors only, the results show the relevance for further studies on other pieces of equipment.

Fuzzy risk index for power transformer failures due to external short-circuits

A novel methodology to assess the risk of power transformer failures caused by external faults, such as short-circuit, taking the paper insulation condition into account, is presented. The risk index is obtained by contrasting the insulation paper condition with the probability that the transformer withstands the short-circuit current flowing along the winding during an external fault. In order to assess the risk, this probability and the value of the degree of polymerization of the insulating paper are regarded as inputs of a type-2 fuzzy logic system (T2-FLS), which computes the fuzzy risk level. A Monte Carlo simulation has been used to find the survival function of the currents flowing through the transformer winding during a single-phase or a three-phase short-circuit. The Roy Billinton Test System and a real power system have been used to test the results. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Antioxidant capacity of the striped sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) seed extracts evaluated by three in vitro methods

The antioxidant capacity of the striped sunflower seed cotyledon extracts, obtained by sequential extraction with different polarities of solvents, was evaluated by three different in vitro methods: ferric reducing/antioxidant power (FRAP), 2.2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl radical (DPPH) and oxygen radical absorbance capacity (ORAC) assays. In the three methods, the aqueous extract at 30 mu g/ml showed a higher antioxidant capacity value (FRAP, 45.27 mu mol; DPPH, 50.18%; ORAC, 1.5 Trolox equivalents) than the ethanolic extract (FRAP, 32.17 mu mol; DPPH, 15.21%; ORAC, 0.50 Trolox equivalents). When compared with the synthetic antioxidant butylated hydroxyl toluene, the antioxidant capacity of the aqueous extract varied from 45% to 66%, according to the used method. The high antioxidant capacity observed for the aqueous extract of the studied sunflower seed suggests that the intake of this seed may prevent in vivo oxidative reactions responsible for the development of several diseases, such as cancer.

Assessing the competitiveness of loss allocation methods in a deregulated electricity market

This paper critically assesses several loss allocation methods based on the type of competition each method promotes. This understanding assists in determining which method will promote more efficient network operations when implemented in deregulated electricity industries. The methods addressed in this paper include the pro rata [1], proportional sharing [2], loss formula [3], incremental [4], and a new method proposed by the authors of this paper, which is loop-based [5]. These methods are tested on a modified Nordic 32-bus network, where different case studies of different operating points are investigated. The varying results obtained for each allocation method at different operating points make it possible to distinguish methods that promote unhealthy competition from those that encourage better system operation.

A framework for electricity price spike analysis with advanced data mining methods

There are many techniques for electricity market price forecasting. However, most of them are designed for expected price analysis rather than price spike forecasting. An effective method of predicting the occurrence of spikes has not yet been observed in the literature so far. In this paper, a data mining based approach is presented to give a reliable forecast of the occurrence of price spikes. Combined with the spike value prediction techniques developed by the same authors, the proposed approach aims at providing a comprehensive tool for price spike forecasting. In this paper, feature selection techniques are firstly described to identify the attributes relevant to the occurrence of spikes. A simple introduction to the classification techniques is given for completeness. Two algorithms: support vector machine and probability classifier are chosen to be the spike occurrence predictors and are discussed in details. Realistic market data are used to test the proposed model with promising results.

Comparison of BR and QR Eigenvalue Algorithms for Power System Small Signal Stability Analysis

The BR algorithm is a novel and efficient method to find all eigenvalues of upper Hessenberg matrices and has never been applied to eigenanalysis for power system small signal stability. This paper analyzes differences between the BR and the QR algorithms with performance comparison in terms of CPU time based on stopping criteria and storage requirement. The BR algorithm utilizes accelerating strategies to improve its performance when computing eigenvalues of narrowly banded, nearly tridiagonal upper Hessenberg matrices. These strategies significantly reduce the computation time at a reasonable level of precision. Compared with the QR algorithm, the BR algorithm requires fewer iteration steps and less storage space without depriving of appropriate precision in solving eigenvalue problems of large-scale power systems. Numerical examples demonstrate the efficiency of the BR algorithm in pursuing eigenanalysis tasks of 39-, 68-, 115-, 300-, and 600-bus systems. Experiment results suggest that the BR algorithm is a more efficient algorithm for large-scale power system small signal stability eigenanalysis.

Computation of bifurcation boundaries for power systems: A new Delta-plane method

This paper is devoted to the problems of finding the load flow feasibility, saddle node, and Hopf bifurcation boundaries in the space of power system parameters. The first part contains a review of the existing relevant approaches including not-so-well-known contributions from Russia. The second part presents a new robust method for finding the power system load flow feasibility boundary on the plane defined by any three vectors of dependent variables (nodal voltages), called the Delta plane. The method exploits some quadratic and linear properties of the load now equations and state matrices written in rectangular coordinates. An advantage of the method is that it does not require an iterative solution of nonlinear equations (except the eigenvalue problem). In addition to benefits for visualization, the method is a useful tool for topological studies of power system multiple solution structures and stability domains. Although the power system application is developed, the method can be equally efficient for any quadratic algebraic problem.

Anemia screening in potential female blood donors: comparison of two different quantitative methods

Anemia screening before blood donation requires an accurate, quick, practical, and easy method with minimal discomfort for the donors. The aim of this study was to compare the accuracy of two quantitative methods of anemia screening: the HemoCue 201(+) (Aktiebolaget Leo Diagnostics) hemoglobin (Hb) and microhematocrit (micro-Hct) tests. Two blood samples of a single fingerstick were obtained from 969 unselected potential female donors to determine the Hb by HemoCue 201(+) and micro-Hct using HemataSTAT II (Separation Technology, Inc.), in alternating order. From each participant, a venous blood sample was drawn and run in an automatic hematology analyzer (ABX Pentra 60, ABX Diagnostics). Considering results of ABX Pentra 60 as true values, the sensitivity and specificity of HemoCue 201(+) and micro-Hct as screening methods were compared, using a venous Hb level of 12.0 g per dL as cutoff for anemia. The sensitivities of the HemoCue 201(+) and HemataSTAT II in detecting anemia were 56 percent (95% confidence interval [CI], 46.1%-65.5%) and 39.5 percent (95% CI, 30.2%-49.3%), respectively (p < 0.001). Analyzing only candidates with a venous Hb level lower than 11.0 g per dL, the deferral rate was 100 percent by HemoCue 201(+) and 77 percent by HemataSTAT II. The specificities of the methods were 93.5 and 93.2 percent, respectively. The HemoCue 201(+) showed greater discriminating power for detecting anemia in prospective blood donors than the micro-Hct method. Both presented equivalent deferral error rates of nonanemic potential donors. Compared to the micro-Hct, HemoCue 201(+) reduces the risk of anemic female donors giving blood, specially for those with lower Hb levels, without increasing the deferral of nonanemic potential donors.

Use of SVM Methods with Surface-Based Cortical and Volumetric Subcortical Measurements to Detect Alzheimer`s Disease

Here, we examine morphological changes in cortical thickness of patients with Alzheimer`s disease (AD) using image analysis algorithms for brain structure segmentation and study automatic classification of AD patients using cortical and volumetric data. Cortical thickness of AD patients (n = 14) was measured using MRI cortical surface-based analysis and compared with healthy subjects (n = 20). Data was analyzed using an automated algorithm for tissue segmentation and classification. A Support Vector Machine (SVM) was applied over the volumetric measurements of subcortical and cortical structures to separate AD patients from controls. The group analysis showed cortical thickness reduction in the superior temporal lobe, parahippocampal gyrus, and enthorhinal cortex in both hemispheres. We also found cortical thinning in the isthmus of cingulate gyrus and middle temporal gyrus at the right hemisphere, as well as a reduction of the cortical mantle in areas previously shown to be associated with AD. We also confirmed that automatic classification algorithms (SVM) could be helpful to distinguish AD patients from healthy controls. Moreover, the same areas implicated in the pathogenesis of AD were the main parameters driving the classification algorithm. While the patient sample used in this study was relatively small, we expect that using a database of regional volumes derived from MRI scans of a large number of subjects will increase the SVM power of AD patient identification.

Comparative effects of wavelengths of low-power laser in regeneration of sciatic nerve in rats following crushing lesion

Peripheral nerves are structures that, when damaged, can result in significant motor and sensory disabilities. Several studies have used therapeutic resources with the aim of promoting early nerve regeneration, such as the use of low-power laser. However, this laser therapy does not represent a consensus regarding the methodology, thus yielding controversial conclusions. The objective of our study was to investigate, by functional evaluation, the comparative effects of low-power laser (660 nm and 830 nm) on sciatic nerve regeneration following crushing injuries. Twenty-seven Wistar rats subjected to sciatic nerve injury were divided into three groups: group sham, consisting of rats undergoing simulated irradiation; a group consisting of rats subjected to gallium-aluminum-arsenide (GaAlAs) laser at 660 nm (10 J/cm(2), 30 mW and 0.06 cm(2) beam), and another one consisting of rats subjected to GaAlAs laser at 830 nm (10 J/cm(2), 30 mW and 0.116 cm(2)). Laser was applied to the lesion for 21 days. A sciatic functional index (SFI) was used for functional evaluation prior to surgery and on days 7, 14, and 21 after surgery. Differences in SFI were found between group 660 nm and the other ones at the 14th day. One can observe that laser application at 660 nm with the parameters and methods utilised was effective in promoting early functional recovery, as indicated by the SFI, over the period evaluated.

LOCAL LOW POWER LASER IRRADIATION ACCELERATES THE REGENERATION OF THE FIBULAR NERVE IN RATS

Objective: To study the influence of low power GaAsAl laser irradiation on the regeneration of a peripheral nerve, following a controlled crush injury. Material and methods: The right common fibular nerve of 30 Wistar rats was submitted to a crush injury with an adjustable load forceps (5 000 g, 10 minutes of application). The animals were divided into three groups (n=10), according to the postoperative procedure (no irradiation; sham irradiation; effective irradiation). Laser irradiation (830 nm wave-length; 100 mW emission power; continuous mode; 140 J/cm(2)) was started on the first postoperative day and continued over 21 consecutive days. Body mass, time spent on the walking track and functional peroneal index (PFI) were analyzed based on the hind footprints, both preoperatively and on the 21st postoperative day. Results: Walking time and PFI significantly improved in the group that received effective laser irradiation, despite the significant gain in body mass between the pre- and post-operative periods. Conclusion: Low Power GaAsAl laser irradiation, with the parameters used in our study, accelerated and improved fibular nerve regeneration in rats.

Quantitative three-dimensional power Doppler angiography: a flow-free phantom experiment to evaluate the relationship between color gain, depth and signal artifact

Objectives To evaluate the presence of false flow three-dimensional (3D) power Doppler signals in `flow-free` models. Methods 3D power Doppler datasets were acquired from three different flow-free phantoms (muscle, air and water) with two different transducers and Virtual Organ Computer-aided AnaLysis was used to generate a sphere that was serially applied through the 3D dataset. The vascularization flow index was used to compare artifactual signals at different depths (from 0 to 6 cm) within the different phantoms and at different gain and pulse repetition frequency (PR F) settings. Results Artifactual Doppler signals were seen in all phantoms despite these being flow-free. The pattern was very similar and the degree of artifact appeared to be dependent on the gain and distance from the transducer. False signals were more evident in the far field and increased as the gain was increased, with false signals first appearing with a gain of 1 dB in the air and muscle phantoms. False signals were seen at a lower gain with the water phantom (-15 dB) and these were associated with vertical lines of Doppler artifact that were related to PRF, and disappeared when reflections were attenuated. Conclusions Artifactual Doppler signals are seen in flow-free phantoms and are related to the gain settings and the distance from the transducer. In the in-vivo situation, the lowest gain settings that allow the detection of blood flow and adequate definition of vessel architecture should be used, which invariably means using a setting near or below the middle of the range available. Additionally, observers should be aware of vertical lines when evaluating cystic or liquid-containing structures. Copyright (C) 2010 ISUOC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Laser Phototherapy as Topical Prophylaxis Against Head and Neck Cancer Radiotherapy-Induced Oral Mucositis: Comparison Between Low and High/Low Power Lasers

Background and Objective: Oral mucositis is a dose-limiting and painful side effect of radiotherapy (RT) and/or chemotherapy in cancer patients. The purpose of the present study was to analyze the effect of different protocols of laser phototherapy (LPT) on the grade of mucositis and degree of pain in patients under RT. Patients and Methods: Thirty-nine patients were divided into three groups: G1, where the irradiations were done three times a week using low power laser; G2, where combined high and low power lasers were used three time a week; and G3, where patients received low power laser irradiation once a week. The low power LPT was done using an InGaAlP laser (660 nm/40 mW/6 J cm(-2)/0.24 J per point). In the combined protocol, the high power LPT was done using a GaAlAs laser (808 nm, 1 W/cm(2)). Oral mucositis was assessed at each LPT session in accordance to the oral-mucositis scale of the National Institute of the Cancer-Common Toxicity criteria (NIC-CTC). The patient self-assessed pain was measured by means of the visual analogue scale. Results: All protocols of LPT led to the maintenance of oral mucositis scores in the same levels until the last RT session. Moreover, LPT three times a week also maintained the pain levels. However, the patients submitted to the once a week LPT had significant pain increase; and the association of low/high LPT led to increased healing time. Conclusions: These findings are desired when dealing with oncologic patients under RT avoiding unplanned radiation treatment breaks and additional hospital costs. Lasers Surg.Med. 41:264-270,2009. (C) 2009Wiley-Liss, Inc.