(Table 1) Krill (Euphausia superba) biomass estimates at South Georgia Island from 2001-2005

The South Georgia region supports a large biomass of krill that is subject to high interannual variability. The apparent lack of a locally self-maintaining krill population at South Georgia means that understanding the mechanism underlying these observed population characteristics is essential to successful ecosystem-based management of krill fishery in the region. Krill acoustic-density data from surveys conducted in the early, middle and late period of the summers of 2001 to 2005, together with krill population size structure over the same period from predator diet data, were used with a krill population dynamics model to evaluate potential mechanisms behind the observed changes in krill biomass. Krill abundance was highest during the middle of the summer in 3 years and in the late period in 2 years; in the latter there was evidence that krill recruitment was delayed by several months. A model scenario that included empirically derived estimates of both the magnitude and timing of recruitment in each year showed the greatest correlation with the acoustic series. The results are consistent with a krill population with allochthonous recruitment entering a retained adult population; i.e. oceanic transport of adult krill does not appear to be the major factor determining the dynamics of the adult population. The results highlight the importance of the timing of recruitment, especially where this could introduce a mismatch between the peak of krill abundance and the peak demand from predators, which may exacerbate the effects of changes in krill populations arising from commercial harvesting and/or climate change.

(Table 1) Nesting characteristics of greater snow geese (Chen caerulescens atlanticus) on Bylot Island between 1995-2005

1. Habitat heterogeneity and predator behaviour can strongly affect predator-prey interactions but these factors are rarely considered simultaneously, especially when systems encompass multiple predators and prey. 2. In the Arctic, greater snow geese Anser caerulescens atlanticus L. nest in two structurally different habitats: wetlands that form intricate networks of water channels, and mesic tundra where such obstacles are absent. In this heterogeneous environment, goose eggs are exposed to two types of predators: the arctic fox Vulpes lagopus L. and a diversity of avian predators. We hypothesized that, contrary to birds, the hunting ability of foxes would be impaired by the structurally complex wetland habitat, resulting in a lower predation risk for goose eggs. 3. In addition, lemmings, the main prey of foxes, show strong population cycles. We thus further examined how their fluctuations influenced the interaction between habitat heterogeneity and fox predation on goose eggs. 4. An experimental approach with artificial nests suggested that foxes were faster than avian predators to find unattended goose nests in mesic tundra whereas the reverse was true in wetlands. Foxes spent 3-5 times more time between consecutive attacks on real goose nests in wetlands than in mesic tundra. Their attacks on goose nests were also half as successful in wetlands than in mesic tundra whereas no difference was found for avian predators. 5. Nesting success in wetlands (65%) was higher than in mesic tundra (56%) but the difference between habitats increased during lemming crashes (15%) compared to other phases of the cycle (5%). Nests located at the edge of wetland patches were also less successful than central ones, suggesting a gradient in accessibility of goose nests in wetlands for foxes. 6. Our study shows that the structural complexity of wetlands decreases predation risk from foxes but not avian predators in arctic-nesting birds. Our results also demonstrate that cyclic lemming populations indirectly alter the spatial distribution of productive nests due to a complex interaction between habitat structure, prey-switching and foraging success of foxes.

(Table 1) Egg laying and hatching dates and guarding duration of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) on Petrel Island, Antarctica

1. In Polar Regions, the extent and dynamics of sea-ice are changing. This affects the ocean productivity which consecutively impacts plankton communities and polar top predators like penguins. Yet, the underlying behavioural and physiological mechanisms remain poorly understood. 2. Here we monitored the ecophysiological responses of Adelie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) pairs during two seasons of contrasting timing of sea-ice retreat. Beside classical breeding parameters like foraging trip duration, body mass and reproductive success, we also investigated food-related stress (via plasma corticosterone concentration), nutritional state (via metabolite levels) and the use of penguins' habitat (via blood isotopic values). 3. Body mass and reproductive success remained unchanged but foraging trips were shorter when sea-ice retreated earlier. Constant plasma corticosterone concentrations indicated that none of the feeding conditions resulted in a food-related stress. However metabolite levels were lower when sea-ice retreated early, suggesting that the foraging performance and the quality/quantity of food differed. Indeed isotopic ratios indicated that coastal prey like fish contributed more to the penguins' diet when sea-ice retreated prematurely. 4. The early sea-ice retreat was related to higher chlorophyll concentrations, known to favour krill recruitment. Paradoxically, this was not associated to a higher krill contribution in the penguins' diet. We propose that a shift in the phytoplankton quality (rather than quantity), affecting krill recruitment, forced penguins to switch to more available prey like coastal fish. 5. In some Antarctic regions, sea-ice is retreating earlier and earlier. In the present study, even though the timing of sea-ice retreat and the consecutive ocean productivity differed drastically between the 2 years, Adelie penguins were not severely affected because they were able to adjust their at-sea behaviour and thus maintained their body condition and reproductive success unchanged. 6. This suggests that the timing of sea-ice retreat does not represent an important threat to populations of Adelie penguins at least as long as alternative resources are still available and other environmental parameters like winter sea-ice extent are not dramatically altered.

Tab. 1: Geographical, temperature and chemical features of sites on Bear Island and Spitsbergen

In arctic populations of Macrothrix hirsuticornis life cycles are mainly governed by temperature. This was found by using laboratory cultures in combination with the analysis of population samples from waters in Svalbard. In arctic waters ex-ephippio-++ usually produce gamogenetic F1-++ together with a high percentage of oo, which have to fertilize the resting eggs. Temperatures around 14°C, which are very rare in waters of Svalbard, will induce parthenogenetic oo in the F1 and even the F2-generation, a mode of reproduction normally found in Macrothrix-populations of Central Europe. This was found in laboratory cultures of M. hirsuticornis from Bear Island, and there was evidence, that a similar cycle occurs in warm wells in Spitsbergen. The arctic distribution of M. hirsuticornis mainly depends on temperature, which regulates the speed of individual development. But this can only be understood together with the length of time, during which suitable life conditions are given. Physiological adaptations to life in waters in high latitudes could not be found, in spite of the extreme northern occurrence of M. hirsuticornis.

Planktic foraminiferal populations and test flux in the eastern North Atlantic Ocean

Planktic foraminiferal assemblages vary in response to seasonal fluctuations of hydrographic properties, between water masses, and after periodical changes and episodic events (e.g. reproduction, storms). Distinct annual variability of the planktic foraminiferal flux is also known from sediment trap data. In this paper we discuss the short-term impacts on interannual flux rates based on data from opening-closing net hauls obtained between the ocean surface and 500 m water depth. Data were recorded during April, May, June, and August at around 47°N, 20°W (BIOTRANS) in 1988, 1989, 1990, 1992, 1993, and during May 1989 and 1992 at 57°N, 20-22°W. Species assemblages closely resemble each other when comparing the mixed layer fauna with the fauna of the upper 100 m and the upper 500 m of the water column. In addition, species assemblages >100 µm are almost indistinguishable from assemblages that are >125 µm in test size. The standing stock of planktic foraminifers at BIOTRANS can vary by more than one order of magnitude over different years; however, species assemblages may be similar when comparing corresponding seasons. Early summer assemblages (June) are distinctly different from late summer assemblages (August). Significant variations in the species composition during spring (April/May) are independent of the mixed layer depth. Spring assemblages are characterized by high numbers of Globigerinita glutinata. In particular, day-to-day variations of the number of specimens and in species composition may have the same order of magnitude as interannual variations. This appears to be independent of the reproduction cycle. Species assemblages at 47°N and 57°N are similar during spring, although surface water temperatures and salinities differ by up to 10°C and 0.7 (PSU). We suggest that the main factors controlling the planktic foraminiferal fauna are the trophic properties in the upper ocean productive layer. Planktic foraminiferal carbonate flux as calculated from assemblages reveals large seasonal variations, a quasi-annual periodicity in flux levels, and substantial differences in timing and magnitude of peak fluxes. At the BIOTRANS station, the average annual planktic foraminiferal CaCO3 fluxes at 100 and 500 m depth are estimated to be 22.4 and 10.0 g/m**2/yr, respectively.

Population maintenance among tropical reef fishes: Inferences from small-island endemics

To what extent do local populations of tropical reef fishes persist through the recruitment of pelagic larvae to their natal reef? Endemics from small, isolated islands can help answer that question by indicating whether special biological attributes are needed for long-term survival under enforced localization in high-risk situations. Taxonomically and biologically, the endemics from seven such islands are broadly representative of their regional faunas. As natal-site recruitment occurs among reef fishes in much less isolated situations, these characteristics of island endemics indicate that a wide range of reef fishes could have persistent self-sustaining local populations. Because small islands regularly support substantial reef fish faunas, regional systems of small reserves could preserve much of the diversity of these fishes.

Identifying mobility in populations with mixed marine/terrestrial diets : strontium isotope analysis of skeletal material from a passage grave in Resmo, Öland, Sweden

Strontium isotope analysis of skeletal material as a means to reconstruct prehistoric residential patterns has previously mainly been applied to populations with terrestrial diets. Here we present a model for populations with mixed marine/terrestrial diets, which is based on two-component mixing of strontium isotopes. Applying this model, we can estimate the original strontium isotope value of the terrestrial component of the diet. Accordingly it is possible to identify non-local individuals even if they had a mixed marine/terrestrial diet. The model is applied to tooth enamel samples representing nine individuals recovered from a passage grave in Resmo, on the island of Öland in the Baltic Sea, where at least five non-local individuals, representing at least two different geographical regions of origin, were identified. Non-local individuals were more frequent during the Bronze Age than during previous phases.

A comparative study of three river systems leading into Nootka Sound, British Columbia: implications for winter salmon populations

Senior thesis written for Oceanography 445

Prevalence of HBsAg mutants and impact of hepatitis B infant immunisation in four Pacific Island countries

The prevalence rate of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in Pacific Island countries is amongst the highest in the world. Hepatitis B immunisation has been incorporated into national programmes at various times, often with erratic supply and coverage, until a regionally co-ordinated programme, which commenced in 1995 ensured adequate supply. The effectiveness of these programmes was recently evaluated in four countries, Vanuatu and Fiji in Melanesia, Tonga in Polynesia and Kiribati in Micronesia. That evaluation established that the programmes had a substantial beneficial impact in preventing chronic hepatitis B infection [Vaccine 18 (2000) 3059]. Several studies of hepatitis B vaccination programmes in endemic countries have identified the potential significance of surface gene mutants as a cause for failure of immunisation. In the study outlined in this paper, we screened infected children and their mothers for the emergence and prevalence of these variants in specimens collected from the four country evaluation. Although the opportunity for the emergence of HBV vaccine escape mutants in these populations was high due to the presence of a considerable amount of the virus in the population and the selection pressure from vaccine use, there were no a determinant vaccine escape mutants found. This suggests that vaccine escape variants are not an important cause for failure to prevent HBV transmission in this setting. Other HBsAg variants were detected, but their functional significance remains to be determined. The failure to provide satisfactory protection during such immunisation programmes reflects the need for achieving and sustaining high vaccine coverage, improving the timeliness of doses as well as improving 'cold-chain' support, rather than the selection of vaccine-escape mutants of HBV. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stochastic models for mainland-island metapopulations in static and dynamic landscapes

This paper has three primary aims: to establish an effective means for modelling mainland-island metapopulations inhabiting a dynamic landscape: to investigate the effect of immigration and dynamic changes in habitat on metapopulation patch occupancy dynamics; and to illustrate the implications of our results for decision-making and population management. We first extend the mainland-island metapopulation model of Alonso and McKane [Bull. Math. Biol. 64:913-958,2002] to incorporate a dynamic landscape. It is shown, for both the static and the dynamic landscape models, that a suitably scaled version of the process converges to a unique deterministic model as the size of the system becomes large. We also establish that. under quite general conditions, the density of occupied patches, and the densities of suitable and occupied patches, for the respective models, have approximate normal distributions. Our results not only provide us with estimates for the means and variances that are valid at all stages in the evolution of the population, but also provide a tool for fitting the models to real metapopulations. We discuss the effect of immigration and habitat dynamics on metapopulations, showing that mainland-like patches heavily influence metapopulation persistence, and we argue for adopting measures to increase connectivity between this large patch and the other island-like patches. We illustrate our results with specific reference to examples of populations of butterfly and the grasshopper Bryodema tuberculata.

Costs and decisions in population management: Koalas on Kangaroo Island

Many populations have a negative impact on their habitat, or upon other species in the environment, if their numbers become too large. For this reason they are often managed using some form of control. The objective is to keep numbers at a sustainable level, while ensuring survival of the population.+Here we present models that allow population management programs to be assessed. Two common control regimes will be considered: reduction and suppression. Under the suppression regime the previous population is maintained close to a particular threshold through near continuous control, while under the reduction regime, control begins once the previous population reaches a certain threshold and continues until it falls below a lower pre-defined level. We discuss how to best choose the control parameters, and we provide tools that allow population managers to select reduction levels and control rates. Additional tools will be provided to assess the effect of different control regimes, in terms of population persistence and cost.In particular we consider the effects of each regime on the probability of extinction and the expected time to extinction, and compare the control methods in terms of the expected total cost of each regime over the life of the population. The usefulness of our results will be illustrated with reference to the control of a koala population inhabiting Kangaroo Island, Australia.

The combined impact of urban heat island, thermal bridge effect of buildings and future climate change on the potential overwintering of Phlebotomus species in a Central European metropolis

Leishmaniasis is one of the most important emerging vector-borne diseases in Western Eurasia. Although winter minimum temperatures limit the present geographical distribution of the vector Phlebotomus species, the heat island effect of the cities and the anthropogenic heat emission together may provide the appropriate environment for the overwintering of sand flies. We studied the climate tempering effect of thermal bridges and the heat island effect in Budapest, Hungary. Thermal imaging was used to measure the heat surplus of heat bridges. The winter heat island effect of the city was evaluated by numerical analysis of the measurements of the Aqua sensor of satellite Terra. We found that the surface temperature of thermal bridges can be at least 3-7 °C higher than the surrounding environment. The heat emission of thermal bridges and the urban heat island effect together can cause at least 10 °C higher minimum ambient temperature in winter nights than the minimum temperature of the peri-urban areas. This milder micro-climate of the built environment can enable the potential overwintering of some important European Phlebotomus species. The anthropogenic heat emission of big cities may explain the observed isolated northward populations of Phlebotomus ariasi in Paris and Phlebotomus neglectus in the agglomeration of Budapest.

Injuries observed in nesting females of loggerhead turtles on Boavista island (Cabo Verde Archipelago)

[EN] Different kinds of physical anomalies are frequently observed in any sea turtle breeding population. Nesting beaches are an excellent place to study the injuries and defects that occur in adult females. The archipelago of Cape Verde is situated about 500 km of Senegal, West Africa. Boavista is the eastern most island and may constitute the most important nesting area for the loggerhead turtle in the archipelago. The studies conducted from 1998 to 2004 indicate that Cape Verde might account for one of the most important loggerheads populations in the eastern Atlantic. The nesting females in Boavista were surveyed during the 2004 season, in order to (1) know the health status of the population (2) determine the effects of physical anomalies on nesting behaviour and (3) determine the possible origin of the injuries observed.

Injuries observed in nesting females of loggerhead turtles on Boavista island (Cabo Verde Archipelago)

[EN] Different kinds of physical anomalies are frequently observed in any sea turtle breeding population. Nesting beaches are an excellent place to study the injuries and defects that occur in adult females. The archipelago of Cape Verde is situated about 500 km of Senegal, West Africa. Boavista is the eastern most island and may constitute the most important nesting area for the loggerhead turtle in the archipelago. The studies conducted from 1998 to 2004 indicate that Cape Verde might account for one of the most important loggerheads populations in the eastern Atlantic. The nesting females in Boavista were surveyed during the 2004 season, in order to (1) know the health status of the population (2) determine the effects of physical anomalies on nesting behaviour and (3) determine the possible origin of the injuries observed.