Evaluating Specification Tests for Markov-Switching Time-Series Models

We evaluate the performance of several specification tests for Markov regime-switching time-series models. We consider the Lagrange multiplier (LM) and dynamic specification tests of Hamilton (1996) and Ljung–Box tests based on both the generalized residual and a standard-normal residual constructed using the Rosenblatt transformation. The size and power of the tests are studied using Monte Carlo experiments. We find that the LM tests have the best size and power properties. The Ljung–Box tests exhibit slight size distortions, though tests based on the Rosenblatt transformation perform better than the generalized residual-based tests. The tests exhibit impressive power to detect both autocorrelation and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH). The tests are illustrated with a Markov-switching generalized ARCH (GARCH) model fitted to the US dollar–British pound exchange rate, with the finding that both autocorrelation and GARCH effects are needed to adequately fit the data.

Public health and clinical dilemmas resulting from imprecise vitamin D tests

Objective: To determine whether there are clinical and public health dilemmas resulting from the reproducibility of routine vitamin D assays. Methods: Blinded agreement studies were conducted in eight clinical laboratories using two commonly used assays to measure serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) levels in Australasia and Canada (DiaSorin Radioimmunoassay (RIA) and DiaSorin LIAISON® one). Results: Only one laboratory measured 25(OH)D with excellent precision. Replicate 25(OH)D measurements varied by up to 97% and 15% of paired results differed by more than 50%. Thirteen percent of subjects received one result indicating insufficiency [25-50 nmol/l] and another suggesting adequacy [>50 nmol/l]). Agreement ranged from poor to excellent for laboratories using the manual RIA, while the precision of the semi-automated Liaison® system was consistently poor. Conclusions: Recent interest in the relevance of vitamin D to human health has increased demand for 25(OH)D testing and associated costs. Our results suggest clinicians and public health authorities are making decisions about treatment or changes to public health policy based on imprecise data. Clinicians, researchers and policy makers should be made aware of the imprecision of current 25(OH)D testing so that they exercise caution when using these assays for clinical practice, and when interpreting the findings of epidemiological studies based on vitamin D levels measured using these assays. Development of a rapid, reproducible, accurate and robust assay should be a priority due to interest in populationbased screening programs and research to inform public health policy about the amount of sun exposure required for human health. In the interim, 25(OH)D results should routinely include a statement of measurement uncertainty.

The emotional manipulation-psychopathy nexus : relationships with emotional intelligence, alexithymia, and ethical position

This research examined for the first time the relationship between emotional manipulation, emotional intelligence, and primary and secondary psychopathy. As predicted, in Study 1 (N = 73), emotional manipulation was related to both primary and secondary psychopathy. Only secondary psychopathy was related to perceived poor emotional skills. Secondary psychopathy was also related to emotional concealment. Emotional intelligence was negatively related to perceived poor emotional skills, emotional concealment, and primary and secondary psychopathy. In Study 2 (N = 275), two additional variables were included: alexithymia and ethical position. It was found that for males, primary psychopathy and emotional intelligence predicted emotional manipulation, while for females emotional intelligence acted as a suppressor, and ethical idealism and secondary psychopathy were additional predictors. For males, emotional intelligence and alexithymia were related to perceived poor emotional skills, while for females emotional intelligence, but not alexithymia, predicted perceived poor emotional skills, with ethical idealism acting as a suppressor. For both males and females, alexithymia predicted emotional concealment. These findings suggest that the mechanisms behind the emotional manipulation–psychopathy relationship differ as a function of gender. Examining the different aspects of emotional manipulation as separate but related constructs may enhance understanding of the construct of emotional manipulation.

A problem-posing intervention in the development of problem-solving competence of underachieving, middle-year students

This study reported on the issues surrounding the acquisition of problem-solving competence of middle-year students who had been ascertained as above average in intelligence, but underachieving in problem-solving competence. In particular, it looked at the possible links between problem-posing skills development and improvements in problem-solving competence. A cohort of Year 7 students at a private, non-denominational, co-educational school was chosen as participants for the study, as they undertook a series of problem-posing sessions each week throughout a school term. The lessons were facilitated by the researcher in the students’ school setting. Two criteria were chosen to identify participants for this study. Firstly, each participant scored above the 60th percentile in the standardized Middle Years Ability Test (MYAT) (Australian Council for Educational Research, 2005) and secondly, the participants all scored below the cohort average for Criterion B (Problem-solving Criterion) in their school mathematics tests during the first semester of Year 7. Two mutually exclusive groups of participants were investigated with one constituting the Comparison Group and the other constituting the Intervention Group. The Comparison Group was chosen from a Year 7 cohort for whom no problem-posing intervention had occurred, while the Intervention Group was chosen from the Year 7 cohort of the following year. This second group received the problem-posing intervention in the form of a teaching experiment. That is, the Comparison Group were only pre-tested and post-tested, while the Intervention Group was involved in the teaching experiment and received the pre-testing and post-testing at the same time of the year, but in the following year, when the Comparison Group have moved on to the secondary part of the school. The groups were chosen from consecutive Year 7 cohorts to avoid cross-contamination of the data. A constructionist framework was adopted for this study that allowed the researcher to gain an “authentic understanding” of the changes that occurred in the development of problem-solving competence of the participants in the context of a classroom setting (Richardson, 1999). Qualitative and quantitative data were collected through a combination of methods including researcher observation and journal writing, video taping, student workbooks, informal student interviews, student surveys, and pre-testing and post-testing. This combination of methods was required to increase the validity of the study’s findings through triangulation of the data. The study findings showed that participation in problem-posing activities can facilitate the re-engagement of disengaged, middle-year mathematics students. In addition, participation in these activities can result in improved problem-solving competence and associated developmental learning changes. Some of the changes that were evident as a result of this study included improvements in self-regulation, increased integration of prior knowledge with new knowledge and increased and contextualised socialisation.

Experimental tests on structural members fabricated from high strength steel materials

Typical high strength steels (HSS) have exceptional high strengths with improved weldability making the material attractive in modern steel constructions. However, due to lack of understanding, most of the current steel design standards are limited to conventional low strength steels (LSS, i.e. fy ≤ 450 MPa). This paper presents the details of full-scale experimental tests on short beams fabricated from BISPLATE80 HSS materials (nominal fy = 690 MPa). The various slenderness ratios of the plate elements in the test specimens were chosen in the range near the current yield limit (AS4100-1998, etc.). The experimental studies presented in this paper have produced a better understanding of the structural behaviour of HSS members subjected to local instabilities. Comparisons have also presented in the paper regarding to the design predictions from the current steel standards (AS4100-1998). This study has enabled to provide a series of proposals for proper assessment of plate slenderness limits for structural members made of representative HSS materials. This research work also enables the inclusion of further versions in the steel design specifications for typical HSS materials to be used in buildings and bridges. This paper also presents a distribution model of residual stresses in the longitudinal direction for typical HSS I-sections.

Full scale fire tests of a new light gauge steel floor-ceiling system

Cold-formed steel members can be assembled in various combinations to provide cost-efficient and safe light gauge floor systems for buildings. Such Light gauge Steel Framing (LSF) systems are widely accepted in industrial and commercial building construction. An example application is in floor-ceiling systems. Light gauge steel floor-ceiling systems must be designed to serve as fire compartment boundaries and provide adequate fire resistance. Fire-rated floor-ceiling assemblies formed with new materials and construction methodologies have been increasingly used in buildings. However, limited research has been undertaken in the past and hence a thorough understanding of their fire resistance behaviour is not available. Recently a new composite floor-ceiling system has been developed to provide higher fire rating under standard fire conditions. But its increased fire rating could not be determined using the currently available design methods. Therefore a research project was carried out to investigate its structural and fire resistance behaviour under standard fire conditions. In this research project full scale experimental tests of the new LSF floor system based on a composite ceiling unit were undertaken using a gas furnace at the Queensland University of Technology. Both the conventional and the new steel floor-ceiling systems were tested under structural and fire loads. Full scale fire tests provided a good understanding of the fire behaviour of the LSF floor-ceiling systems and confirmed the superior performance of the new composite system. This paper presents the details of this research into the structural and fire behaviour of light gauge steel floor systems protected by the new composite panel, and the results.

Modeling and exploiting behavior patterns in dynamic environments

This paper presents a new approach to improving the effectiveness of autonomous systems that deal with dynamic environments. The basis of the approach is to find repeating patterns of behavior in the dynamic elements of the system, and then to use predictions of the repeating elements to better plan goal directed behavior. It is a layered approach involving classifying, modeling, predicting and exploiting. Classifying involves using observations to place the moving elements into previously defined classes. Modeling involves recording features of the behavior on a coarse grained grid. Exploitation is achieved by integrating predictions from the model into the behavior selection module to improve the utility of the robot's actions. This is in contrast to typical approaches that use the model to select between different strategies or plays. Three methods of adaptation to the dynamic features of the environment are explored. The effectiveness of each method is determined using statistical tests over a number of repeated experiments. The work is presented in the context of predicting opponent behavior in the highly dynamic and multi-agent robot soccer domain (RoboCup).

Performance tests for visual servo control systems, with application to partitioned approaches to visual servo control

Visual servoing has been a viable method of robot manipulator control for more than a decade. Initial developments involved positionbased visual servoing (PBVS), in which the control signal exists in Cartesian space. The younger method, image-based visual servoing (IBVS), has seen considerable development in recent years. PBVS and IBVS offer tradeoffs in performance, and neither can solve all tasks that may confront a robot. In response to these issues, several methods have been devised that partition the control scheme, allowing some motions to be performed in the manner of a PBVS system, while the remaining motions are performed using an IBVS approach. To date, there has been little research that explores the relative strengths and weaknesses of these methods. In this paper we present such an evaluation. We have chosen three recent visual servo approaches for evaluation in addition to the traditional PBVS and IBVS approaches. We posit a set of performance metrics that measure quantitatively the performance of a visual servo controller for a specific task. We then evaluate each of the candidate visual servo methods for four canonical tasks with simulations and with experiments in a robotic work cell.

Conducting statistical tests of hypotheses : five common misconceptions found in transportation research

Most statistical methods use hypothesis testing. Analysis of variance, regression, discrete choice models, contingency tables, and other analysis methods commonly used in transportation research share hypothesis testing as the means of making inferences about the population of interest. Despite the fact that hypothesis testing has been a cornerstone of empirical research for many years, various aspects of hypothesis tests commonly are incorrectly applied, misinterpreted, and ignored—by novices and expert researchers alike. On initial glance, hypothesis testing appears straightforward: develop the null and alternative hypotheses, compute the test statistic to compare to a standard distribution, estimate the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis, and then make claims about the importance of the finding. This is an oversimplification of the process of hypothesis testing. Hypothesis testing as applied in empirical research is examined here. The reader is assumed to have a basic knowledge of the role of hypothesis testing in various statistical methods. Through the use of an example, the mechanics of hypothesis testing is first reviewed. Then, five precautions surrounding the use and interpretation of hypothesis tests are developed; examples of each are provided to demonstrate how errors are made, and solutions are identified so similar errors can be avoided. Remedies are provided for common errors, and conclusions are drawn on how to use the results of this paper to improve the conduct of empirical research in transportation.

Empathy, neutrality and emotional intelligence: a balancing act for the emotional Einstein

Emotions play a central role in mediation as they help to define the scope and direction of a conflict. When a party to mediation expresses (and hence entrusts) their emotions to those present in a mediation, a mediator must do more than simply listen - they must attend to these emotions. Mediator empathy is an essential skill for communicating to a party that their feelings have been heard and understood, but it can lead mediators into trouble. Whilst there might exist a theoretical divide between the notions of empathy and sympathy, the very best characteristics of mediators (caring and compassionate nature) may see empathy and sympathy merge - resulting in challenges to mediator neutrality. This article first outlines the semantic difference between empathy and sympathy and the role that intrapsychic conflict can play in the convergence of these behavioural phenomena. It then defines emotional intelligence in the context of a mediation, suggesting that only the most emotionally intelligent mediators are able to emotionally connect with the parties, but maintain an impression of impartiality – the quality of remaining ‘attached yet detached’ to the process. It is argued that these emotionally intelligent mediators have the common qualities of strong self-awareness and emotional self-regulation.