Multivariate nonlinear ensemble prediction of daily chaotic rainfall with climate inputs

The basic characteristic of a chaotic system is its sensitivity to the infinitesimal changes in its initial conditions. A limit to predictability in chaotic system arises mainly due to this sensitivity and also due to the ineffectiveness of the model to reveal the underlying dynamics of the system. In the present study, an attempt is made to quantify these uncertainties involved and thereby improve the predictability by adopting a multivariate nonlinear ensemble prediction. Daily rainfall data of Malaprabha basin, India for the period 1955-2000 is used for the study. It is found to exhibit a low dimensional chaotic nature with the dimension varying from 5 to 7. A multivariate phase space is generated, considering a climate data set of 16 variables. The chaotic nature of each of these variables is confirmed using false nearest neighbor method. The redundancy, if any, of this atmospheric data set is further removed by employing principal component analysis (PCA) method and thereby reducing it to eight principal components (PCs). This multivariate series (rainfall along with eight PCs) is found to exhibit a low dimensional chaotic nature with dimension 10. Nonlinear prediction employing local approximation method is done using univariate series (rainfall alone) and multivariate series for different combinations of embedding dimensions and delay times. The uncertainty in initial conditions is thus addressed by reconstructing the phase space using different combinations of parameters. The ensembles generated from multivariate predictions are found to be better than those from univariate predictions. The uncertainty in predictions is decreased or in other words predictability is increased by adopting multivariate nonlinear ensemble prediction. The restriction on predictability of a chaotic series can thus be altered by quantifying the uncertainty in the initial conditions and also by including other possible variables, which may influence the system. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Steady compressible flow of cohesionless granular materials through a wedge-shaped bunker

A continuum model based on the critical-state theory of soil mechanics is used to generate stress, density, and velocity profiles, and to compute discharge rates for the flow of granular material in a mass flow bunker. The bin–hopper transition region is idealized as a shock across which all the variables change discontinuously. Comparison with the work of Michalowski (1987) shows that his experimentally determined rupture layer lies between his prediction and that of the present theory. However, it resembles the former more closely. The conventional condition involving a traction-free surface at the hopper exit is abandoned in favour of an exit shock below which the material falls vertically with zero frictional stress. The basic equations, which are not classifiable under any of the standard types, require excessive computational time. This problem is alleviated by the introduction of the Mohr–Coulomb approximation (MCA). The stress, density, and velocity profiles obtained by integration of the MCA converge to asymptotic fields on moving down the hopper. Expressions for these fields are derived by a perturbation method. Computational difficulties are encountered for bunkers with wall angles θw [gt-or-equal, slanted] 15° these are overcome by altering the initial conditions. Predicted discharge rates lie significantly below the measured values of Nguyen et al. (1980), ranging from 38% at θw = 15° to 59% at θw = 32°. The poor prediction appears to be largely due to the exit condition used here. Paradoxically, incompressible discharge rates lie closer to the measured values. An approximate semi-analytical expression for the discharge rate is obtained, which predicts values within 9% of the exact (numerical) ones in the compressible case, and 11% in the incompressible case. The approximate analysis also suggests that inclusion of density variation decreases the discharge rate. This is borne out by the exact (numerical) results – for the parameter values investigated, the compressible discharge rate is about 10% lower than the incompressible value. A preliminary comparison of the predicted density profiles with the measurements of Fickie et al. (1989) shows that the material within the hopper dilates more strongly than predicted. Surprisingly, just below the exit slot, there is good agreement between theory and experiment.

Multi-scale interactions and predictability of the Indian summer monsoon

Following the seminal work of Charney and Shukla (198 1), the tropical climate is recognised to be more predictable than extra tropical climate as it is largely forced by 'external' slowly varying forcing and less sensitive to initial conditions. However, the Indian summer monsoon is an exception within the tropics where 'internal' low frequency (LF) oscillations seem to make significant contribution to its interannual variability (IAV) and makes it sensitive to initial conditions. Quantitative estimate of contribution of 'internal' dynamics to IAV of Indian monsoon is made using long experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and through analysis of long daily observations. Both AGCM experiments and observations indicate that more than 50% of IAV of the monsoon is contributed by 'internal' dynamics making the predictable signal (external component) burried in unpredictable noise (internal component) of comparable amplitude. Better understanding of the nature of the 'internal' LF variability is crucial for any improvement in predicition of seasonal mean monsoon. Nature of 'internal' LF variability of the monsoon and mechanism responsible for it are investigated and shown that vigorous monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (ISO's) with time scale between 10-70 days are primarily responsible for generating the 'internal' IAV. The monsoon ISO's do this through scale interactions with synoptic disturbances (1-7 day time scale) on one hand and the annual cycle on the other. The spatial structure of the monsoon ISO's is similar to that of the seasonal mean. It is shown that frequency of occurance of strong (weak) phases of the ISO is different in different seasons giving rise to stronger (weaker) than normal monsoon. Change in the large scale circulation during strong (weak) phases of the ISO make it favourable (inhibiting) for cyclogenesis and gives rise to space time clustering of synoptic activity. This process leads to enhanced (reduced) rainfall in seasons of higher frequency of occurence strong (weak) phases of monsoon ISO.

Evolutionary Algorithm for the Determination of Optimal Mode of Bioreactor Operation

Stirred tank bioreactors, employed in the production of a variety of biologically active chemicals, are often operated in batch, fed-batch, and continuous modes of operation. The optimal design of bioreactor is dependent on the kinetics of the biological process, as well as the performance criteria (yield, productivity, etc.) under consideration. In this paper, a general framework is proposed for addressing the two key issues related to the optimal design of a bioreactor, namely, (i) choice of the best operating mode and (ii) the corresponding flow rate trajectories. The optimal bioreactor design problem is formulated with initial conditions and inlet and outlet flow rate trajectories as decision variables to maximize more than one performance criteria (yield, productivity, etc.) as objective functions. A computational methodology based on genetic algorithm approach is developed to solve this challenging multiobjective optimization problem with multiple decision variables. The applicability of the algorithm is illustrated by solving two challenging problems from the bioreactor optimization literature.

Retro-Proportional-Navigation: A New Guidance Law for Interception of High-Speed Targets

In this paper, a new proportional-navigation guidance law, called retro-proportional-navigation, is proposed. The guidance law is designed to intercept targets that are of higher speeds than the interceptor. This is a typical scenario in a ballistic target interception. The capture region analysis for both proportional-navigation and retro-proportional-navigation guidance laws are presented. The study shows that, at the cost of a higher intercept time, the retro-proportional-navigation guidance law demands lower terminal lateral acceleration than proportional navigation and can intercept high-velocity targets from many initial conditions that the classical proportional navigation cannot. Also, the capture region with the retro-proportional-navigation guidance law is shown to be larger compared with the classical proportional-navigation guidance law.

Two-dimensional moist stratified turbulence and the emergence of vertically sheared horizontal flows

Moist stratified turbulence is studied in a two-dimensional Boussinesq system influenced by condensation and evaporation. The problem is set in a periodic domain and employs simple evaporation and condensation schemes, wherein both the processes push parcels towards saturation. Numerical simulations demonstrate the emergence of a moist turbulent state consisting of ordered structures with a clear power-law type spectral scaling from initially spatially uncorrelated conditions. An asymptotic analysis in the limit of rapid condensation and strong stratification shows that, for initial conditions with enough water substance to saturate the domain, the equations support a straightforward state of moist balance characterized by a hydrostatic, saturated, vertically sheared horizontal flow (VSHF). For such initial conditions, by means of long time numerical simulations, the emergence of moist balance is verified. Specifically, starting from uncorrelated data, subsequent to the development of a moist turbulent state, the system experiences a rather abrupt transition to a regime which is close to saturation and dominated by a strong VSHF. On the other hand, initial conditions which do not have enough water substance to saturate the domain, do not attain moist balance. Rather, the system is observed to remain in a turbulent state and oscillates about moist balance. Even though balance is not achieved with these general initial conditions, the time scale of oscillation about moist balance is much larger than the imposed time scale of condensation and evaporation, thus indicating a distinct dominant slow component in the moist stratified two-dimensional turbulent system. (C) 2012 American Institute of Physics. [http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.3694805]

On the solution of bivariate population balance equations for aggregation: Pivotwise expansion of solution domain

The solution of a bivariate population balance equation (PBE) for aggregation of particles necessitates a large 2-d domain to be covered. A correspondingly large number of discretized equations for particle populations on pivots (representative sizes for bins) are solved, although at the end only a relatively small number of pivots are found to participate in the evolution process. In the present work, we initiate solution of the governing PBE on a small set of pivots that can represent the initial size distribution. New pivots are added to expand the computational domain in directions in which the evolving size distribution advances. A self-sufficient set of rules is developed to automate the addition of pivots, taken from an underlying X-grid formed by intersection of the lines of constant composition and constant particle mass. In order to test the robustness of the rule-set, simulations carried out with pivotwise expansion of X-grid are compared with those obtained using sufficiently large fixed X-grids for a number of composition independent and composition dependent aggregation kernels and initial conditions. The two techniques lead to identical predictions, with the former requiring only a fraction of the computational effort. The rule-set automatically reduces aggregation of particles of same composition to a 1-d problem. A midway change in the direction of expansion of domain, effected by the addition of particles of different mean composition, is captured correctly by the rule-set. The evolving shape of a computational domain carries with it the signature of the aggregation process, which can be insightful in complex and time dependent aggregation conditions. (c) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Parabolized stability equation models for predicting large-scale mixing noise of turbulent round jets

Parabolized stability equation (PSE) models are being deve loped to predict the evolu-tion of low-frequency, large-scale wavepacket structures and their radiated sound in high-speed turbulent round jets. Linear PSE wavepacket models were previously shown to be in reasonably good agreement with the amplitude envelope and phase measured using a microphone array placed just outside the jet shear layer. 1,2 Here we show they also in very good agreement with hot-wire measurements at the jet center line in the potential core,for a different set of experiments. 3 When used as a model source for acoustic analogy, the predicted far field noise radiation is in reasonably good agreement with microphone measurements for aft angles where contributions from large -scale structures dominate the acoustic field. Nonlinear PSE is then employed in order to determine the relative impor-tance of the mode interactions on the wavepackets. A series of nonlinear computations with randomized initial conditions are use in order to obtain bounds for the evolution of the modes in the natural turbulent jet flow. It was found that n onlinearity has a very limited impact on the evolution of the wavepackets for St≥0. 3. Finally, the nonlinear mechanism for the generation of a low-frequency mode as the difference-frequency mode 4,5 of two forced frequencies is investigated in the scope of the high Reynolds number jets considered in this paper.

Predictability and chaotic nature of daily streamflow

The predictability of a chaotic series is limited to a few future time steps due to its sensitivity to initial conditions and the exponential divergence of the trajectories. Over the years, streamflow has been considered as a stochastic system in many approaches. In this study, the chaotic nature of daily streamflow is investigated using autocorrelation function, Fourier spectrum, correlation dimension method (Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm) and false nearest neighbor method. Embedding dimensions of 6-7 obtained indicates the possible presence of low-dimensional chaotic behavior. The predictability of the system is estimated by calculating the system’s Lyapunov exponent. A positive maximum Lyapunov exponent of 0.167 indicates that the system is chaotic and unstable with a maximum predictability of only 6 days. These results give a positive indication towards considering streamflow as a low dimensional chaotic system than as a stochastic system.

Jet meandering by a foil pitching in quiescent fluid

The flow produced by a rigid symmetric NACA0015 airfoil purely pitching at a fixed location in quiescent fluid (the limiting case of infinite Strouhal number) is studied using visualizations and particle image velocimetry. A weak jet is generated whose inclination changes continually with time. This meandering is observed to be random and independent of the initial conditions, over a wide range of pitching parameters. (C) 2013 American Institute of Physics.

Analytical theory and stability analysis of an elongated nanoscale object under external torque

We consider the rotational motion of an elongated nanoscale object in a fluid under an external torque. The experimentally observed dynamics could be understood from analytical solutions of the Stokes equation, with explicit formulae derived for the dynamical states as a function of the object dimensions and the parameters defining the external torque. Under certain conditions, multiple analytical solutions to the Stokes equations exist, which have been investigated through numerical analysis of their stability against small perturbations and their sensitivity towards initial conditions. These experimental results and analytical formulae are general enough to be applicable to the rotational motion of any isolated elongated object at low Reynolds numbers, and could be useful in the design of non-spherical nanostructures for diverse applications pertaining to microfluidics and nanoscale propulsion technologies.

Predictability and chaotic nature of daily streamflow

The predictability of a chaotic series is limited to a few future time steps due to its sensitivity to initial conditions and the exponential divergence of the trajectories. Over the years, streamflow has been considered as a stochastic system in many approaches. In this study, the chaotic nature of daily streamflow is investigated using autocorrelation function, Fourier spectrum, correlation dimension method (Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm) and false nearest neighbor method. Embedding dimensions of 6-7 obtained indicates the possible presence of low-dimensional chaotic behavior. The predictability of the system is estimated by calculating the system's Lyapunov exponent. A positive maximum Lyapunov exponent of 0.167 indicates that the system is chaotic and unstable with a maximum predictability of only 6 days. These results give a positive indication towards considering streamflow as a low dimensional chaotic system than as a stochastic system.

Vorticity moments in four numerical simulations of the 3D Navier-Stokes equations

The issue of intermittency in numerical solutions of the 3D Navier-Stokes equations on a periodic box 0, L](3) is addressed through four sets of numerical simulations that calculate a new set of variables defined by D-m(t) = (pi(-1)(0) Omega(m))(alpha m) for 1 <= m <= infinity where alpha(m) = 2m/(4m - 3) and Omega(m)(t)](2m) = L-3 integral(v) vertical bar omega vertical bar(2m) dV with pi(0) = vL(-2). All four simulations unexpectedly show that the D-m are ordered for m = 1,..., 9 such that Dm+1 < D-m. Moreover, the D-m squeeze together such that Dm+1/D-m NE arrow 1 as m increases. The values of D-1 lie far above the values of the rest of the D-m, giving rise to a suggestion that a depletion of nonlinearity is occurring which could be the cause of Navier-Stokes regularity. The first simulation is of very anisotropic decaying turbulence; the second and third are of decaying isotropic turbulence from random initial conditions and forced isotropic turbulence at fixed Grashof number respectively; the fourth is of very-high-Reynolds-number forced, stationary, isotropic turbulence at up to resolutions of 4096(3).

Turbulence in the two-dimensional Fourier-truncated Gross-Pitaevskii equation

We undertake a systematic, direct numerical simulation of the twodimensional, Fourier-truncated, Gross-Pitaevskii equation to study the turbulent evolutions of its solutions for a variety of initial conditions and a wide range of parameters. We find that the time evolution of this system can be classified into four regimes with qualitatively different statistical properties. Firstly, there are transients that depend on the initial conditions. In the second regime, powerlaw scaling regions, in the energy and the occupation-number spectra, appear and start to develop; the exponents of these power laws and the extents of the scaling regions change with time and depend on the initial condition. In the third regime, the spectra drop rapidly for modes with wave numbers k > kc and partial thermalization takes place for modes with k < kc; the self-truncation wave number kc(t) depends on the initial conditions and it grows either as a power of t or as log t. Finally, in the fourth regime, complete thermalization is achieved and, if we account for finite-size effects carefully, correlation functions and spectra are consistent with their nontrivial Berezinskii-Kosterlitz-Thouless forms. Our work is a natural generalization of recent studies of thermalization in the Euler and other hydrodynamical equations; it combines ideas from fluid dynamics and turbulence, on the one hand, and equilibrium and nonequilibrium statistical mechanics on the other.

Formation flying of small satellites using suboptimal MPSP guidance

Using the recently developed model predictive static programming (MPSP), a suboptimal guidance logic is presented in this paper for formation flying of small satellites. Due to the inherent nature of the problem formulation, MPSP does not require the system dynamics to be linearized. The proposed guidance scheme is valid both for high eccentricity chief satellite orbits as well as large separation distance between chief and deputy satellites. Moreover, since MPSP poses the desired conditions as a set of `hard constraints', the final accuracy level achieved is very high. The proposed guidance scheme has been tested successfully for a variety of initial conditions and for a variety of formation commands as well. Comparison with standard Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) solution (which serves as a guess solution for MPSP) and another nonlinear controller, State Dependent Riccati Equation (SDRE) reveals that MPSP guidance achieves the objective with higher accuracy and with lesser amount of control usage as well.