An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Health and Tourism sectors in Saint Lucia

This report analyses the agriculture, health and tourism sectors in Saint Lucia to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change in Saint Lucia. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help advance the Caribbean subregion closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated impacts of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An evaluation of various adaptation strategies for each sector was also undertaken using standard evaluation techniques. The key subsectors in agriculture are expected to have mixed impacts under the A2 and B2 scenarios. Banana, fisheries and root crop outputs are expected to fall with climate change, but tree crop and vegetable production are expected to rise. In aggregate, in every decade up to 2050, these sub-sectors combined are expected to experience a gain under climate change with the highest gains under A2. By 2050, the cumulative gain under A2 is calculated as approximately US$389.35 million and approximately US$310.58 million under B2, which represents 17.93% and 14.30% of the 2008 GDP respectively. This result was unexpected and may well be attributed to the unavailability of annual data that would have informed a more robust assessment. Additionally, costs to the agriculture sector due to tropical cyclones were estimated to be $6.9 million and $6.2 million under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. There are a number of possible adaptation strategies that can be employed by the agriculture sector. The most attractive adaptation options, based on the benefit-cost ratio are: (1) Designing and implementation of holistic water management plans (2) Establishment of systems of food storage and (3) Establishment of early warning systems. Government policy should focus on the development of these adaption options where they are not currently being pursued and strengthen those that have already been initiated, such as the mainstreaming of climate change issues in agricultural policy. The analysis of the health sector placed focus on gastroenteritis, schistosomiasis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococal meningitis, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and malnutrition. The results obtained for the A2 and B2 scenarios demonstrate the potential for climate change to add a substantial burden to the health system in the future, a factor that will further compound the country’s vulnerability to other anticipated impacts of climate change. Specifically, it was determined that the overall Value of Statistical Lives impacts were higher under the A2 scenario than the B2 scenario. A number of adaptation cost assumptions were employed to determine the damage cost estimates using benefit-cost analysis. The benefit-cost analysis suggests that expenditure on monitoring and information provision would be a highly efficient step in managing climate change and subsequent increases in disease incidence. Various locations in the world have developed forecasting systems for dengue fever and other vector-borne diseases that could be mirrored and implemented. Combining such macro-level policies with inexpensive micro-level behavioural changes may have the potential for pre-empting the re-establishment of dengue fever and other vector-borne epidemic cycles in Saint Lucia. Although temperature has the probability of generating significant excess mortality for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, the power of temperature to increase mortality largely depends on the education of the population about the harmful effects of increasing temperatures and on the existing incidence of these two diseases. For these diseases it is also suggested that a mix of macro-level efforts and micro-level behavioural changes can be employed to relieve at least part of the threat that climate change poses to human health. The same principle applies for water and food-borne diseases, with the improvement of sanitation infrastructure complementing the strengthening of individual hygiene habits. The results regarding the tourism sector imply that the tourism climatic index was likely to experience a significant downward shift in Saint Lucia under the A2 as well as the B2 scenario, indicative of deterioration in the suitability of the island for tourism. It is estimated that this shift in tourism features could cost Saint Lucia about 5 times the 2009 GDP over a 40-year horizon. In addition to changes in climatic suitability for tourism, climate change is also likely to have important supply-side effects on species, ecosystems and landscapes. Two broad areas are: (1) coral reefs, due to their intimate link to tourism, and, (2) land loss, as most hotels tend to lie along the coastline. The damage related to coral reefs was estimated at US$3.4 billion (3.6 times GDP in 2009) under the A2 scenario and US$1.7 billion (1.6 times GDP in 2009) under the B2 scenario. The damage due to land loss arising from sea level rise was estimated at US$3.5 billion (3.7 times GDP) under the A2 scenario and US$3.2 billion (3.4 times GDP) under the B2 scenario. Given the potential for significant damage to the industry a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these a short-list of 9 potential options were selected by applying 10 evaluation criteria. Using benefit-cost analyses 3 options with positive ratios were put forward: (1) increased recommended design speeds for new tourism-related structures; (2) enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events, and, (3) deployment of artificial reefs or other fish-aggregating devices. While these options had positive benefit-cost ratios, other options were also recommended based on their non-tangible benefits. These include the employment of an irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water, development of national evacuation and rescue plans, providing retraining for displaced tourism workers and the revision of policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climate realities.

Hands-Free Navigation in Immersive Environments for the Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Indoor Navigation Systems

While navigation systems for cars are in widespread use, only recently, indoor navigation systems based on smartphone apps became technically feasible. Hence tools in order to plan and evaluate particular designs of information provision are needed. Since tests in real infrastructures are costly and environmental conditions cannot be held constant, one must resort to virtual infrastructures. This paper presents the development of an environment for the support of the design of indoor navigation systems whose center piece consists in a hands-free navigation method using the Microsoft Kinect in the four-sided Definitely Affordable Virtual Environment (DAVE). Navigation controls using the user's gestures and postures as the input to the controls are designed and implemented. The installation of expensive and bulky hardware like treadmills is avoided while still giving the user a good impression of the distance she has traveled in virtual space. An advantage in comparison to approaches using a head mounted display is that the DAVE allows the users to interact with their smartphone. Thus the effects of different indoor navigation systems can be evaluated already in the planning phase using the resulting system

Comparing the quality of three models of postabortion care in public hospitals in Mexico City

artículo publicado en la revista Int Fam Plan Perspect. 2003 Sep;29(3):112-20

Using a problem detection study (PDS) to identify and compare health care provider and consumer views of antihypertensive therapy

The objectives of this study were to ascertain consumer knowledge and behaviour about hypertension and treatment and to compare these with health care providers' perceptions (of 'most' consumers). The design for the study was a problem detection study (PDS): focus groups and then survey. Focus groups and survey participants were convenience samples of consumers, doctors, nurses and pharmacists. The main outcome measures were agreement on a 5-point Likert scale with statements about consumers' knowledge and behaviour about high blood pressure and medication. The survey identified areas of consensus and disagreement between consumers and health providers. While general knowledge and concordance with antihypertensive therapy among consumers was good, consequences such as eye and kidney disease, interactions with herbal medicines, and how to deal with missing a dose were less well known. Side effects were a problem for over one-quarter of participants, and cost was a problem in continuing therapy. Half the consumers had not received sufficient written information. Providers overall disagreed that most consumers have an adequate understanding of the condition. They agreed that most consumers adhere to therapy and can manage medicines; and about their own profession's role in information provision and condition management. Consumers confirmed positive provider behaviour, suggesting opportunities for greater communication between providers about actions taken with their consumers. In conclusion, the PDS methodology was useful in identifying consumer opinions. Differences between consumer and provider responses were marked, with consumers generally rating their knowledge and behaviour above providers' ratings of 'most' consumers. There are clear gaps to be targeted to improve the outcomes of hypertension therapy.

Trusting technology: Women aged 40-49 years participating in screening for breast cancer - an exploratory study

Objective: This paper reports key findings from an exploratory study of factors associated with women's decision to participate in mass mammography screening in Tasmania. In particular, we explored factors that contribute to the choice to participate in screening by women who are outside the primary target group, and for whom the evidence of benefit remains contentious. Methods: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a small sample of women aged between 40 and 49 years in rural Tasmania who had participated in mammography screening. Results: Key ideas that appeared to shape participation included the fear of breast cancer, trust in technology, and taking responsibility for health. Information provision is also an important factor in shaping participation patterns. Conclusions and implications: In order to facilitate informed consent, information provision in this area should take account of the dominant ideas that shape the decision to participate in breast cancer screening.

Knowledge of birds and willingness to support their conservation: an Australian case study

This case study concentrates on the extent of knowledge among the Australian public of Australia's tropical bird species, and their willingness to support their conservation. In order to place this issue in context, we provide background information on the status of Australian bird species, focusing attention on species that occur in tropical Australia. Then, using questionnaire survey results, we consider the hypothesis that the public's support for the conservation of different bird species depends on their understanding of the species' existence and status. Based on results from a sample of residents in Brisbane, Queensland, we found that knowledge of bird species that occur exclusively in the Australian tropics (including tropical Queensland) was very poor compared with that of those occurring in the Brisbane area that are relatively common. Experimental results indicated that when respondents in the sample had an option to allocate A$1,000 between 10 bird species listed in the survey, they allocated more funds to the better-known and more common species, unless they were provided with balanced information about all the selected species. With balanced information, the average allocation to bird species confined mostly to the Australian tropics, particularly those threatened, increased. This demonstrates the conservation implications of information provision about bird species. The results showed that public education can play a crucial role in attempts to conserve bird species that are poorly known and threatened.

Dimensions of quality of life and psychosocial variables most salient to colorectal cancer patients

Colorectal cancer is one of the most common invasive cancers, and is responsible for considerable physical and psychosocial morbidity. Understanding the quality of life experienced by colorectal cancer patients is essential for evaluating the full impact of the disease on individuals, their families and their communities. Patient perspective is essential in establishing a proper understanding of the quality of life of colorectal cancer patients. Despite this, few studies have employed a qualitative methodology to explore quality of life issues for colorectal cancer patients. A review of the literature identified only seven qualitative studies pertaining to quality of life issues for colorectal cancer patients, a surprising finding given the prevalence of this cancer. Accordingly, this study sought to build on the findings of previous qualitative research by providing descriptive data on the quality of life and psychosocial variables most salient to colorectal cancer patients. Six core themes emerged from interview and focus group data: Satisfaction with diagnosis and treatment; support (including information provision); quality of life; benefits of diagnosis; making sense of the cancer experience; and coping strategies. The information derived from this study will help inform the development of supportive care services to address the needs of the increasing number of people diagnosed with colorectal cancer. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Public choice of species for the 'Ark': Phylogenetic similarity and preferred wildlife species for survival

Humans play a role in deciding the fate of species in the current extinction wave. Because of the previous Similarity Principle, physical attractiveness and likeability, it has been argued that public choice favours the survival of species that satisfy these criteria at the expense of other species. This paper empirically tests this argument by considering a hypothetical ‘Ark’ situation. Surveys of 204 members of the Australian public inquired whether they are in favour of the survival of each of 24 native mammal, bird and reptile species (prior to and after information provision about each species). The species were ranked by percentage of ‘yes’ votes received. Species composition by taxon in various fractions of the ranking was determined. If the previous Similarity Principle holds, mammals should rank highly and dominate the top fractions of animals saved in the hierarchical list. We find that although mammals would be over-represented in the ‘Ark’, birds and reptiles are unlikely to be excluded when social choice is based on numbers ‘voting’ for the survival of each species. Support for the previous Similarity Principle is apparent particularly after information provision. Public policy implications of this are noted and recommendations are given.

The implications of cost behaviour for profit planning and control

The work described in the following pages was carried out at various sites in the Rod Division of the Delta Metal Company. Extensive variation in the level of activity in the industry during the years 1974 to I975 had led to certain inadequacies being observed 1n the traditional cost control procedure. In an attempt to remedy this situation it was suggested that a method be found of constructing a system to improve the flexibility of cost control procedures. The work involved an assimilation of the industrial and financial environment via pilot studies which would later prove invaluable to home in on the really interesting and important areas. Weaknesses in the current systems which came to light made the methodology of data collection and the improvement of cost control and profit planning procedures easier to adopt. Because of the requirements of the project to investigate the implications of Cost behaviour for profit planning and control, the next stage of the research work was to utilise the on-site experience to examine at a detailed level the nature of cost behaviour. The analysis of factory costs then showed that certain costs, which were the most significant exhibited a stable relationship with respect to some known variable, usually a specific measure of Output. These costs were then formulated in a cost model, to establish accurate standards in a complex industrial setting in order to provide a meaningful comparison against which to judge actual performance. The necessity of a cost model was •reinforced by the fact that the cost behaviour found to exist was, in the main, a step function, and this complex cost behaviour, the traditional cost and profit planning procedures could not possibly incorporate. Already implemented from this work is the establishment of the post of information officer to co-ordinate data collection and information provision.

The SEC’s retail investor 2.0: Interactive data and the rise of calculative accountability

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the United States mandated a new digital reporting system for US companies in late 2008. The new generation of information provision has been dubbed by Chairman Cox, ‘interactive data’ (SEC, 2006a). Despite the promise of its name, we find that in the development of the project retail investors are invoked as calculative actors rather than engaged in dialogue. Similarly, the potential for the underlying technology to be applied in ways to encourage new forms of accountability appears to be forfeited in the interests of enrolling company filers. We theorise the activities of the SEC and in particular its chairman at the time, Christopher Cox, over a three year period, both prior to and following the ‘credit crisis’. We argue that individuals and institutions play a central role in advancing the socio-technical project that is constituted by interactive data. We adopt insights from ANT (Callon, 1986; Latour, 1987, 2005b) and governmentality (Miller, 2008; Miller and Rose, 2008) to show how regulators and the proponents of the technology have acted as spokespersons for the interactive data technology and the retail investor. We examine the way in which calculative accountability has been privileged in the SEC’s construction of the retail investor as concerned with atomised, quantitative data (Kamuf, 2007; Roberts, 2009; Tsoukas, 1997). We find that the possibilities for the democratising effects of digital information on the Internet has not been realised in the interactive data project and that it contains risks for the very investors the SEC claims to seek to protect.

Experiences of patients with age-related macular degeneration receiving anti-vascular endothelial growth factor therapy:a qualitative study

The societal cost for the average health authority in the United Kingdom for the care of wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD) has been suggested to be around £7.4 million. It is vital that the best possible care based on the best available evidence is provided to reduce the impact of AMD on patients' lives and the financial cost to the health-care system. This study explored the experiences of AMD patients treated with intravitreal ranibizumab injections. Three semistructured interviews were conducted with seven participants over the course of 18 months. Transcripts were analysed using interpretative phenomenological analysis. Analysis identified four themes: preparing for treatment, the treatment process, patient-provider communication, and results of treatment. Patient experiences highlighted the need to move away from the reliance on letters for information provision, and the need for clearer guidelines about when to cease AMD treatment. Interviews highlighted the need for the inclusion of rigorous qualitative evidence with experiential data in future good clinical practice guideline development for AMD. © The Author(s) 2013.

Interactive data in financial reporting:the construction of the non-professional investor

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the United States and in particular its immediately past chairman, Christopher Cox, has been actively promoting an upgrade of the EDGAR system of disseminating filings. The new generation of information provision has been dubbed by Chairman Cox, "Interactive Data" (SEC, 2006). In October this year the Office of Interactive Disclosure was created(http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2007/2007-213.htm). The focus of this paper is to examine the way in which the non-professional investor has been constructed by various actors. We examine the manner in which Interactive Data has been sold as the panacea for financial market 'irregularities' by the SEC and others. The academic literature shows almost no evidence of researching non-professional investors in any real sense (Young, 2006). Both this literature and the behaviour of representatives of institutions such as the SEC and FSA appears to find it convenient to construct this class of investor in a particular form and to speak for them. We theorise the activities of the SEC and its chairman in particular over a period of about three years, both following and prior to the 'credit crunch'. Our approach is to examine a selection of the policy documents released by the SEC and other interested parties and the statements made by some of the policy makers and regulators central to the programme to advance the socio-technical project that is constituted by Interactive Data. We adopt insights from ANT and more particularly the sociology of translation (Callon, 1986; Latour, 1987, 2005; Law, 1996, 2002; Law & Singleton, 2005) to show how individuals and regulators have acted as spokespersons for this malleable class of investor. We theorise the processes of accountability to investors and others and in so doing reveal the regulatory bodies taking the regulated for granted. The possible implications of technological developments in digital reporting have been identified also by the CEO's of the six biggest audit firms in a discussion document on the role of accounting information and audit in the future of global capital markets (DiPiazza et al., 2006). The potential for digital reporting enabled through XBRL to "revolutionize the entire company reporting model" (p.16) is discussed and they conclude that the new model "should be driven by the wants of investors and other users of company information,..." (p.17; emphasis in the original). Here rather than examine the somewhat illusive and vexing question of whether adding interactive functionality to 'traditional' reports can achieve the benefits claimed for nonprofessional investors we wish to consider the rhetorical and discursive moves in which the SEC and others have engaged to present such developments as providing clearer reporting and accountability standards and serving the interests of this constructed and largely unknown group - the non-professional investor.

Patients' and physicians' experiences of atrial fibrillation consultations and anticoagulation decision-making:a multi-perspective IPA design

OBJECTIVE: To explore patients' and physicians' experiences of atrial fibrillation consultations and oral anticoagulation decision-making. DESIGN: Multi-perspective interpretative phenomenological analyses. METHODS: Participants included small homogeneous subgroups: AF patients who accepted (n=4), refused (n=4), or discontinued (n=3) warfarin, and four physician subgroups (n=4 each group): consultant cardiologists, consultant general physicians, general practitioners and cardiology registrars. Semi-structured interviews were conducted. Transcripts were analysed using multi-perspective IPA analyses to attend to individuals within subgroups and making comparisons within and between groups. RESULTS: Three themes represented patients' experiences: Positioning within the physician-patient dyad, Health-life balance, and Drug myths and fear of stroke. Physicians' accounts generated three themes: Mechanised metaphors and probabilities, Navigating toward the 'right' decision, and Negotiating systemic factors. CONCLUSIONS: This multi-perspective IPA design facilitated an understanding of the diagnostic consultation and treatment decision-making which foregrounded patients' and physicians' experiences. We drew on Habermas' theory of communicative action to recommend broadening the content within consultations and shifting the focus to patients' life contexts. Interventions including specialist multidisciplinary teams, flexible management in primary care, and multifaceted interventions for information provision may enable the creation of an environment that supports genuine patient involvement and participatory decision-making.

In two minds about screening: an investigation of cervical cancer prevention among Irish women

Cervical cancer is the second most common female cancer worldwide. Cervical screening programmes can reduce the incidence of cervical cancer by up to 80 percent if the invited women participate. Previous Irish research has associated screening attendance with subjective norms, anticipated regret, higher socio-economic status and education. Greater perceived screening barriers and lacking knowledge were associated with avoidance. These findings support a variety of expectancy-value theories of behaviour. They also suggest that expectancy-value theories could benefit from the inclusion of affective predictors of behaviour, like anticipated regret. In 2008 the Republic of Ireland introduced the National Cervical Screening Programme (NCSP). This research seeks to identify the predictors of participation in the NCSP. A systematic review of reviews showed that predictors of screening participation clustered into environmental and psychological influences. There is a gap in the evidence synthesis of associations with personal characteristics and health beliefs. Thematic analysis of focus group interviews confirmed the validity of many screening predictors identified by the systematic review and expectancy-value theories. A survey of these predictors suggested that reduced screening barriers might encourage first-time participation, while regular attendance requires greater endorsement of screening benefits and stronger subjective norm and intention. Positive attitude, rather than knowledge, appeared to be crucial for strong intention, so the final study piloted an experiment comparing the utility of positive attitude in strengthening intention to the utility of information provision. Despite lacking significant differences between conditions, content analysis of participant comments suggested that a full trial would be worthwhile, given purposive sampling and improved sample retention. These findings agree with previous Irish research on the importance of screening intention, although its association with attitude appeared to be stronger in the present research. The findings further indicate that future screening promotion should consider interventions based on patients’ experiences of screening.

Libraries and open access: the implications of open-access publishing and dissemination for libraries in higher education institutions

This chapter discusses the consequences of open-access (OA) publishing and dissemination for libraries in higher education institutions (HEIs). Key questions (which are addressed in this chapter) include: 1. How might OA help information provision? 2. What changes to library services will arise from OA developments (particularly if OA becomes widespread)? 3. How do these changes fit in with wider changes affecting the future role of libraries? 4. How can libraries and librarians help to address key practical issues associated with the implementation of OA (particularly transition issues)? This chapter will look at OA from the perspective of HE libraries and will make four key points: 1. Open access has the potential to bring benefits to the research community in particular and society in general by improving information provision. 2. If there is widespread open access to research content, there will be less need for library-based activity at the institution level, and more need for information management activity at the supra-institutional or national level. 3. Institutional libraries will, however, continue to have an important role to play in areas such as managing purchased or licensed content, curating institutional digital assets, and providing support in the use of content for teaching and research. 4. Libraries are well-placed to work with stakeholders within their institutions and beyond to help resolve current challenges associated with the implementation of OA policies and practices.