A century of global equity market correlations

In this paper, we use a unique long-run dataset of regulatory constraints on capital account openness to explain stock market correlations. Since stock returns themselves are highly volatile, any examination of what drives correlations needs to focus on long runs of data. This is particularly true since some of the short-term changes in co-movements appear to reverse themselves (Delroy Hunter 2005). We argue that changes in the co-movement of indices have not been random. Rather, they are mainly driven by greater freedom to move funds from one country to another. In related work, Geert Bekaert and Campbell Harvey (2000) show that equity correlations increase after liberalization of capital markets, using a number of case studies from emerging countries. We examine this pattern systematically for the last century, and find it to be most pronounced in the recent past. We compare the importance of capital account openness with one main alternative explanation, the growing synchronization of economic fundamentals. We conclude that greater openness has been the single most important cause of growing correlations during the last quarter of a century, though increasingly correlated economic fundamentals also matter. In the conclusion, we offer some thoughts on why the effects of greater openness appear to be so much stronger today than they were during the last era of globalization before 1914.

Forecasting the effects of global warming on biodiversity

The demand for accurate forecasting of the effects of global warming on biodiversity is growing, but current methods for forecasting have limitations. in this article, we compare and discuss the different uses of four forecasting methods: (1) models that consider species individually, (2) niche-theory models that group species by habitat (more specifically, by environmental conditions under which a species can persist or does persist), (3) general circulation models and coupled ocean-atmosphere-biosphere models, and (4) specics-area curve models that consider all species or large aggregates of species. After outlining the different uses and limitations of these methods, we make eight primary suggestions for improving forecasts. We find that greater use of the fossil record and of modern genetic studies would improve forecasting methods. We note a Quaternary conundrum: While current empirical and theoretical ecological results suggest that many species could be at risk from global warming, during the recent ice ages surprisingly few species became extinct. The potential resolution of this conundrum gives insights into the requirements for more accurate and reliable forecasting. Our eight suggestions also point to constructive synergies in the solution to the different problems.

Sex differences in urinary levels of several biological indicators of exposure: a simulation study using a compartmental based toxicokinetic model

Toxicokinetic modeling is a useful tool to describe or predict the behavior of a chemical agent in the human or animal organism. A general model based on four compartments was developed in a previous study in order to quantify the effect of human variability on a wide range of biological exposure indicators. The aim of this study was to adapt this existing general toxicokinetic model to three organic solvents, which were methyl ethyl ketone, 1-methoxy-2-propanol and 1,1,1,-trichloroethane, and to take into account sex differences. We assessed in a previous human volunteer study the impact of sex on different biomarkers of exposure corresponding to the three organic solvents mentioned above. Results from that study suggested that not only physiological differences between men and women but also differences due to sex hormones levels could influence the toxicokinetics of the solvents. In fact the use of hormonal contraceptive had an effect on the urinary levels of several biomarkers, suggesting that exogenous sex hormones could influence CYP2E1 enzyme activity. These experimental data were used to calibrate the toxicokinetic models developed in this study. Our results showed that it was possible to use an existing general toxicokinetic model for other compounds. In fact, most of the simulation results showed good agreement with the experimental data obtained for the studied solvents, with a percentage of model predictions that lies within the 95% confidence interval varying from 44.4 to 90%. Results pointed out that for same exposure conditions, men and women can show important differences in urinary levels of biological indicators of exposure. Moreover, when running the models by simulating industrial working conditions, these differences could even be more pronounced. In conclusion, a general and simple toxicokinetic model, adapted for three well known organic solvents, allowed us to show that metabolic parameters can have an important impact on the urinary levels of the corresponding biomarkers. These observations give evidence of an interindividual variablity, an aspect that should have its place in the approaches for setting limits of occupational exposure.

Impact of global warming on potato late blight : risk, yield loss and control

Selostus: Ilmaston lämpenemisen vaikutus perunaruttoon

Indicators of therapeutic effect in FIT-06, a Phase II trial of a DNA vaccine, GTU(®)-Multi-HIVB, in untreated HIV-1 infected subjects.

BACKGROUND: Combination highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) has significantly decreased HIV-1 related morbidity and mortality globally transforming HIV into a controllable condition. HAART has a number of limitations though, including limited access in resource constrained countries, which have driven the search for simpler, affordable HIV-1 treatment modalities. Therapeutic HIV-1 vaccines aim to provide immunological support to slow disease progression and decrease transmission. We evaluated the safety, immunogenicity and clinical effect of a novel recombinant plasmid DNA therapeutic HIV-1 vaccine, GTU(®)-multi-HIVB, containing 6 different genes derived from an HIV-1 subtype B isolate. METHODS: 63 untreated, healthy, HIV-1 infected, adults between 18 and 40 years were enrolled in a single-blinded, placebo-controlled Phase II trial in South Africa. Subjects were HIV-1 subtype C infected, had never received antiretrovirals, with CD4 ≥ 350 cells/mm(3) and pHIV-RNA ≥ 50 copies/mL at screening. Subjects were allocated to vaccine or placebo groups in a 2:1 ratio either administered intradermally (ID) (0.5mg/dose) or intramuscularly (IM) (1mg/dose) at 0, 4 and 12 weeks boosted at 76 and 80 weeks with 1mg/dose (ID) and 2mg/dose (IM), respectively. Safety was assessed by adverse event monitoring and immunogenicity by HIV-1-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T-cells using intracellular cytokine staining (ICS), pHIV-RNA and CD4 counts. RESULTS: Vaccine was safe and well tolerated with no vaccine related serious adverse events. Significant declines in log pHIV-RNA (p=0.012) and increases in CD4+ T cell counts (p=0.066) were observed in the vaccine group compared to placebo, more pronounced after IM administration and in some HLA haplotypes (B*5703) maintained for 17 months after the final immunisation. CONCLUSIONS: The GTU(®)-multi-HIVB plasmid recombinant DNA therapeutic HIV-1 vaccine is safe, well tolerated and favourably affects pHIV-RNA and CD4 counts in untreated HIV-1 infected individuals after IM administration in subjects with HLA B*57, B*8101 and B*5801 haplotypes.

Sex differences in urinary levels of several biological indicators of exposure: a human volunteer study

The aim of the study was to quantify the variability on biological indicators of exposure between men and women for three well known solvents: methyl ethyl ketone, 1-methoxy-2-propanol and 1,1,1-trichloroethane. Another purpose was to explore the effect of selected CYP2E1 polymorphisms on the toxicokinetic profile. Controlled human exposures were carried out in a 12m(3) exposure chamber for each solvent separately, during 6h and at half of the threshold limit value. The human volunteers groups were composed of ten young men and fifteen young women, including ten women using hormonal contraceptive. An analysis of variance mainly showed an effect on the urinary levels of several biomarkers of exposure among women due to the use of hormonal contraceptive, with an increase of more than 50% in metabolites concentrations and a decrease of up to 50% in unchanged substances concentrations, suggesting an increase in their metabolism rate. The results also showed a difference due to the genotype CYP2E1*6, when exposed to methyl ethyl ketone, with a tendency to increase CYP2E1 activity when volunteers were carriers of the mutant allele. Our study suggests that not only physiological differences between men and women but also differences due to sex hormones levels can have an impact on urinary concentrations of several biomarkers of exposure. The observed variability due to sex among biological exposure indices can lead to misinterpretation of biomonitoring results. This aspect should have its place in the approaches for setting limits of occupational exposure. [Authors]

Foliar potassium concentrations of bilberry, bog bilberry and downy birch as indicators of potassium nutrition of Scots pine on a drained peatland

Abstract

Physiological indicators of stress in gestating sows under different cooling systems

The objective of this work was to determine physiological stress markers, neutrophil:lymphocyte ratio (N/L) and corticoid concentrations, in gestating sows under different cooling systems. A sprinkling cooling system (SS) and a system based on fan-assisted evaporative cellulose pad (PS) were used. SS showed higher N/L ratio (1.095) than PS (0.850). Corticoid concentrations showed high variability. Corticosteroids are more efficient short-term stress indicators while N/L ratio is a good medium and long-term stress indicator. According to N/L ratio, gestating sows under PS benefit from a higher level of welfare.

Human Capital Questionnaire (PHCQ): Assessment of European nurses' perception as indicators of human capital quality

Healthcare accreditation models generally include indicators related to healthcare employees' perceptions (e.g. satisfaction, career development, and health safety). During the accreditation process, organizations are asked to demonstrate the methods with which assessments are made. However, none of the models provide standardized systems for the assessment of employees. In this study, we analyzed the psychometric properties of an instrument for the assessment of nurses' perceptions as indicators of human capital quality in healthcare organizations. The Human Capital Questionnaire was applied to a sample of 902 nurses in four European countries (Spain, Portugal, Poland, and the UK). Exploratory factor analysis identified six factors: satisfaction with leadership, identification and commitment, satisfaction with participation, staff well-being, career development opportunities, and motivation. The results showed the validity and reliability of the questionnaire, which when applied to healthcare organizations, provide a better understanding of nurses' perceptions, and is a parsimonious instrument for assessment and organizational accreditation. From a practical point of view, improving the quality of human capital, by analyzing nurses and other healthcare employees' perceptions, is related to workforce empowerment.

Key elements for, and indicators of, a successful transition: an international Delphi study.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to reach an international consensus to determine what key elements should be part of a transition program and what indicators could be used to assess its success. METHODS: For this purpose, a Delphi study including an international panel of 37 experts was carried out. The study consisted of three rounds, with response rates ranging from 86.5% to 95%. At each round, experts were asked to assess key elements (defined as the most important elements for the task) and indicators (defined as quantifiable characteristics). At each round, panelists were contacted via e-mail explaining them the tasks to be done and giving them the Web link where to complete the questionnaire. At Round 3, each key element and indicator was assessed as essential, very important, important, accessory, or unnecessary. A 70% agreement was used as cutoff. RESULTS: At Round 3, more than 70% of panelists agreed on six key elements being essential, with one of them (Assuring a good coordination between pediatric and adult professionals) reaching an almost complete consensus (97%). Additionally, 11 more obtained more than 70% agreement when combined with the Very important category. Among indicators, only one (Patient not lost to follow-up) was considered almost unanimously (91%) as essential by the panelists and seven others also reached consensus when the Very important category was included. CONCLUSIONS: Using these results as a framework to develop guidelines at local, national, and international levels would allow better assessing and comparing transition programs.

Cardiovascular disease and the changing face of global public health : a focus on low and middle income countries

Eighty percent of the global 17 million deaths due to cardiovascular disease (CVD) occur in low and middle income countries (LMICs). The burden of CVD and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) is expected to markedly increase because of the global aging of the population and increasing exposure to detrimental lifestyle-related risk in LMICs. Interventions to reduce four main risks related to modifiable behaviors (tobacco use, unhealthy diet, low physical activity and excess alcohol consumption) are key elements for effective primary prevention of the four main NCDs (CVD, cancer, diabetes and chronic pulmonary disease). These behaviors are best improved through structural interventions (e.g., clean air policy, taxes on cigarettes, new recipes for processed foods with reduced salt and fat, urban shaping to improve mobility, etc.). In addition, health systems in LMICs should be reoriented to deliver integrated cost-effective treatment to persons at high risk at the primary health care level. The full implementation of a small number of highly cost effective, affordable and scalable interventions ("best buys") is likely to be the necessary and sufficient ingredient for curbing NCDs in LMICs. NCDs are both a cause and a consequence of poverty. It is therefore important to frame NCD prevention and control within the broader context of social determinants and development agenda. The recent emphasis on NCDs at a number of health and economic forums (including the September 2011 High Level Meeting on NCDs at the United Nations) provides a new opportunity to move the NCD agenda forward in LMICs.